Did They Ever Know What They Were Talking About? A Brief History of Weather Forecasting

Did We Ever Know What We Were Doing?A Brief History of Weather ForecastingScott M. Rochette, Ph.D.Associate Professor and ChairDepartment of the Earth SciencesThe College at BrockportOutlineOverviewEarliest ObservationsBirth of a ScienceRefining MomentsImportant ForecastsThe Advent of TechnologyWhats Next?Words to Live By (?)Why is Weather Forecasting So Difficult?Imagine a rotating spherical envelope 25 miles deep, made of a mixture of gases whose concentrations vary in space and time.Place it around an astronomical object nearly 8000 miles in diameter, with a bumpy surface.Tilt the whole system back and forth with respect to its source of heat and light, a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away.Freeze it at the poles of its axis of rotation and intensely heat it in the middle.Imagine that the gas mixture continually receives inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but occasionally from violent, highly localized injections.Subject the whole to tidal forces induced by the sun and a captive satellite.After watching the system, try to predict its state at one location on the sphere for a period of one to several days in advance. (adapted from Ryan 1982)Words to Live By 1Death by burning shall be the punishment for the practice of weather forecasting. (17th Century English law)Earliest Observations 1Babylonia, circa 650 BCE:attempted prediction of short-term weather changesbased on clouds and optical phenomena (halos, etc.)Earliest Observations 2Greece, circa 340 BCE:Aristotle wrote Meteorologica, a four-volume philosophical treatiseincluded theories regarding the formation of clouds, rain and hail, wind, thunder and lightning, and hurricanesalso addressed astronomy, geography, and chemistryobservations were remarkably acute, despite significant errors:did not believe wind was air in motionbelieved that the west winds are cold because they blow from the sunsetthe authority on weather theory for about 2000 years (until WHAM 13)Earliest Observations 3China, circa 300 BCE:astronomers developed calendardivided the year into 24 festivals, each corresponding to a different type of weatherIndia, circa 500 AD:Varahamihira wrote Brihat Samhita, Great Compilation106 chapterstheorized that rain comes from the sun

Birth of a Science 1Science implies reproducible resultsrequires observations and measurementsknowledge to this point based solely on observationsdevelopment of weather instruments transformed meteorology into a natural scienceFirst weather instrument?1450: first hygrometerCardinal Nicholas de Cusa of Germanymeasured the weight change of a bag of wool

First Weather Instruments 11590s: first thermometerGalileo Galilei of Italyglass spheres filled with alcohol (of slightly different densities)technically a thermoscope (no scale, only registers temperature differences)first scale would be added about 20 years later

First Weather Instruments 21643: first barometerEvangelista Torricelli of Italy (student of Galileo)pump makers noted that they could get water to rise only about 10 meters filled a glass tube with mercury (density 14x higher than water) and inserted it into a dishfound that the height of the mercury column rose and fell with changes in atmospheric pressureBy allowing atmospheric measurements to be made, meteorology became a science

Synoptic Weather ReportsOne could only do so much with weather information (observed or measured) for a single locationThe telegraph (invented in 1837) allowed weather information to be exchanged and collectedSimultaneous (synoptic) weather observations became the basis for understanding and forecasting the weatherSynoptic = to view together

Galesburg, IL, February 1861 (Courtesy of NOAA National Weather Service)What did this do?Plotting synoptic observations on a map began to show repeating patterns and relationshipsstorms were known to be associated with low pressure, but no relationship between wind and pressure was establishedWilliam Redfield (1831) postulated that winds in hurricanes flow counterclockwise around a low-pressure center (based on a pattern of fallen trees)James Espy (1841) theorized that air flows toward low pressure and is forced to rise, leading to clouds and precipitationThe establishment of weather maps proved both men correct

Weather MapsFirst daily weather map series produced by Joseph Henry of the Smithsonian InstitutionStarted in 1849 with a network of 150 volunteer observers10 years later, the network quadrupled in size, including observers in Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the CaribbeanPrecursor to the National Weather Service

Murphys WinterSome of the first weather forecasts were produced based on theories of planetary or lunar influences (i.e., not based on meteorological observations)Patrick Murphy of Ireland was one of the more famous astrologer-meteorologistsIn 1837, he published The Weather Almanack (on Scientific Principles, showing the State of the Weather for every day of the year 1838)His forecast for 20 January 1838, Fair, probably lowest degree of winter temperature

So How Did He Do?His forecast for London on 20 January 1838 was correct (temperature at sunrise was -4F)As a result, his almanac was a best-seller, with a run of 45 editions (making him 3,000, a fortune then)However, an analysis of his 1838 performance showed him to be partially right on 188 days, but completely wrong on 197 days (54% of the year)He published almanacs for the next several years, which made him a decent livingPoor speculating on grain prices cost him most of his fortune

Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoyLikely best known as the captain of the HMS Beagle (Darwin)Appointed in 1854 to the position of Meteorological Statist to the Board of Trade, in charge of collecting weather data from ships at seaA storm in 1859 that caused the loss of a clipper ship (450+ lost, 39 survivors) inspired him to create weather charts (similar to those made by Henry)These charts were used to make predictions of storms, which he called forecasting the weatherDaily forecasts began to be published in The Times in 1860Likely the first weather forecasts based on meteorological observations

A Sad End for FitzRoyDuring that time, the standard for forecasting was set by the Royal Observatory Landmark accomplishments of Newton (1643-1727) and Leibniz (1646-1716) ushered in an era of determinism If we can imagine a consciousness great enough to know the exact locations and velocities of all the objects in the universe at the present instant, as well as all forces, . . . It could calculate anything about the past or future from the laws of cause and effect. (P.-S. Laplace)Even though they were based on actual meteorological data, FitzRoys forecasts were not up to this standardThe damage from astrologer-meteorologists caused distrust of government forecasts by the public and colleagues alike (unlike today, of course)Forced to abandon his efforts, FitzRoy committed suicide on 30 April 1865

Professor Cleveland AbbeDirector of the Cincinnati Observatory Set up a volunteer observer network similar to that of Joseph HenrySelected observing equipment and trained observersClerks would decode incoming data and plot them on mapsAbbe gave the first official U.S. forecast on 19 February 1871He demanded that his teams forecasts were precisely worded and covered four key elements: temperature, pressure, wind direction, and weather (clouds/ precipitation)69% of their forecasts verified

Abbes AccomplishmentsFirst Chief Scientist of newly formed national weather service under U. S. Army Signal Corps (1871-1915)Advocated for the establishment of time zones in the U.S. and North America (thereby allowing simultaneous weather observations)Founded Monthly Weather Review in 1872 (still in print!)Recognized the interdependence of forecasting, climatology, and physical theory (to the chagrin of meteorology students ever since)

Early U.S. Weather Map, 1 January 1871 (courtesy of NOAA)Words to Live By 2Probably northeast to southwest winds, varying to the southward and westward and eastward and points between, high and low barometer swapping around from place to place; probable areas of rain, snow, hail, and drought, succeeded or preceded by earthquakes, with thunder and lightning. (Mark Twain, 1876, on Professor Abbes likely weather forecast for New England)

Words to Live By 3He who shall predict weather will have no quite life any more, and runs great risk of becoming crazy from nervousness. (C. H. D. Buys Ballot, author of the Buys Ballot law)

From Empiricism to DeterminismPhysical laws govern the motion of fluids (e.g., atmospheric gases)M. F. Spaaskii (1851), a Russian meteorologist, posed the idea that weather forecasting can be posed as a mathematical problemProf. Abbe (1890) published Preparatory Studies of Deductive Methods in Storm and Weather Predictions, which furthered the idea that the laws of physics could be applied to weather predictionHenrik Mohn (Norway), Wladimir Kppen (Germany), and Max Margules (Ukraine) postulated that upper-level mechanisms generate energy for storms

Words to Live By 4Forecasting is immoral and damaging to the character of a meteorologist. (Max Margules)

Professor Vilhelm BjerknesThe pioneer of modern weather forecastingHis 1904 paper provided the basis for numerical weather prediction some 50 years before the first computer modelThe future state of the atmosphere can be determined given:the initial conditions of the atmosphereappropriate governing equationsEstablished the Bergen School of Meteorology in 1917Son Jacob would also contribute significantly

Lewis Fry RichardsonThe first person to attempt numerical weather prediction (1922, without a computer)A Quaker and a pacifist:he served in WWI as an ambulance driverdeveloped his theories about NWP during this timeAttempted a forecast of pressure change (from 4 am to 10 am 20 May 1910, near Munich)six-hour forecast took six weekspredicted pressure change: 145 mb! actual pressure change: < 1 mbgreatest range of observed pressure ~100 mb

Richardsons Forecast FactoryAside from the time problem, Richardson used the full equationsshould have neglected small-scale processesthink of a jar filled with rocks of different sizesHe figured about 64,000 people (with hand calculators) would be needed to keep up with the worlds weatherenvisioned a giant theatre to house themthe light would shine on areas that needed to slow down or speed upGave up weather and focused on peaceful pursuitsLived to see the first successful NWP attempt

Professor Jacob BjerknesMember of the Bergen SchoolPublished a paper in 1922 (at 25!) establishing the Norwegian cyclone model:extratropical cyclone life cyclecold, warm, occluded frontsstill used todayFounded the UCLA Department of Meteorology in 1940 one of five meteorology departments formed that yearMIT, Cal Tech, NYU, University of Chicago

Further Advances1930s: Radiosondes make upper-air data available in near-real time1930s-WWII: Radar first developed as method for tracking ships and aircraftWWII: Weather found as noise in radar imagery

Some Important Forecasts June 1944: Operation OverlordCaptain John Stagg, RAFEisenhower wanted five-day forecasts (!)Weather requirements:no fog/low clouds