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Australia/Asia October 2016 Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations Tim Walsh Senior Manager, Investor Relations

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Page 1: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Australia/Asia

October 2016

Diane DayhoffVice President, Investor Relations

Tim WalshSenior Manager, Investor Relations

Page 2: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measurements

2

Certain statements contained in today’s presentations constitute "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities

Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may relate to, among other things, the demand for our products and

services; net sales growth; comparable store sales; effects of competition; state of the economy; state of the residential construction,

housing and home improvement markets; state of the credit markets, including mortgages, home equity loans and consumer credit;

demand for credit offerings; inventory and in-stock positions; implementation of store, interconnected retail and supply chain

initiatives; management of relationships with our suppliers and vendors; the impact and expected outcome of investigations, inquiries,

claims and litigation, including those related to the 2014 data breach; issues related to the payment methods we accept; continuation

of share repurchase programs; net earnings performance; earnings per share; dividend targets; capital allocation and expenditures;

liquidity; return on invested capital; expense leverage; stock-based compensation expense; commodity price inflation and deflation;

the ability to issue debt on terms and at rates acceptable to us; the effect of accounting charges; the effect of adopting certain

accounting standards; store openings and closures; guidance for fiscal 2016 and beyond; financial outlook; and the integration of

Interline Brands, Inc. into our organization and the ability to recognize the anticipated synergies and benefits of the

acquisition. These forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and current assumptions, expectations

and projections about future events, and actual results could differ materially from our expectations and projections. You should not

rely on our forward-looking statements as they speak only as of the date hereof, and we undertake no obligation to update these

statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as may be required by law. Additional information regarding risks

and uncertainties is described in Item 1A, "Risk Factors," and elsewhere in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for our fiscal year ended

January 31, 2016 and our subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.

Today’s presentations are also supplemented with certain non-GAAP financial measures. We believe these non-GAAP financial

measures better enable management and investors to understand and analyze our performance by providing them with meaningful

information relevant to events of unusual nature or frequency that impact the comparability of underlying business results from period

to period. However, this supplemental information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP

measures. Reconciliations of the supplemental information to the comparable GAAP measures can be found on our Investor

Relations website at ir.homedepot.com.

Page 3: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Discussion Overview

Financial Results & Targets

Our View of the U.S. Home Improvement Market

Strategic Framework

3

Page 4: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results

4

13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016

($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Q2 2016 Q2 2015 V%Sales $26,472 $24,829 6.6%

Comp Sales 4.7% 4.2%

Gross Profit $8,927 $8,365 6.7%

Gross Profit Margin 33.72% 33.69% 3 bps

Total Operating Expenses $4,824 $4,718 2.2%

Operating Profit $4,103 $3,647 12.5%

Operating Profit Margin 15.50% 14.69% 81 bps

Net Earnings $2,441 $2,234 9.3%

Diluted Earnings Per Share $1.97 $1.73 13.9%

Page 5: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Fiscal 2016 Guidance

5

1)

1) All guidance based on GAAP

2) After expected share repurchases of $7 billion for fiscal 2016

New Store Openings ~5 (Mexico)

Sales growth ~6.3% (Includes Interline Brands)

Comp store sales growth ~4.9%

Diluted EPS growth2)~$6.31, or an increase of ~15.6%

(As of September 7, 2016)

Page 6: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Long Term Targets: Fiscal 2018

Comps ~4%

New Stores ~5 – 7 per Year

Total CAGR Sales Growth ~4.7%

- Includes Interline Brands

2012 2015 2018T

$75B

$88.5B

~$101B

All targets based on 52 week years

~$13B

~$13B

Sales

6

Page 7: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Long Term Targets: Fiscal 2018

Operating Margin

~14.5%

2015 2018T 2015 2018T

13.3%

28% ~35%

Return on invested capital is defined as net operating profit after tax, a non-GAAP financial measure, for the most recent twelve-month

period, divided by the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the most recent twelve-month period.

Assumes excess cash used to repurchase shares.

Return on Invested Capital

7

Page 8: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Committed to Dividend Payout

Annual Dividend Paid

$0.90 $0.95 $1.04

$1.16

$1.56

$1.88

$2.36

$2.76

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

8

Increased Quarterly Dividend 17% in February 2016Increased Quarterly Dividend 17% in February 2016

Page 9: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Shareholder Return Principles

9

Return on Invested Capital Principle

Maintain high return on invested capital, benchmarking all uses of excess

liquidity against value created for shareholders through repurchases

Adjusted debt/EBITDAR ratio not to exceed 2x

Dividend Principle

Targeting payout at approximately 50% of earnings. Intend to increase

dividend every year

Share Repurchase Principle

After meeting the needs of the business, use excess liquidity to

repurchase shares, as long as value creating

Page 10: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Discussion Overview

Financial Results & Targets

Our View of the U.S. Home Improvement Market

Strategic Framework

10

Page 11: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

PFRI Still Below Historical Mean

11

Private Fixed Residential Investment (PFRI) as a Percentage of GDP

Source: BEA, Moody’s Economy.com

3.8%

4.5%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

195

0

195

2

195

4

195

6

195

8

196

0

196

2

196

4

196

6

196

8

197

0

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

Q2 2

01

5

Q4 2

01

5

Q2 2

01

6

PFRI as % of GDP (Nominal $) 60-year Avg. (Nominal)

Page 12: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Home Price Recovery

12

Source: S&P Case-Shiller (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody’s Economy.com (Hist.)

S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index

101

185

137

181

80

120

160

200

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

2% below peak

32%

recovery

since trough

Home Price Index

Page 13: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Home Price Recovery

13

Source: S&P Case-Shiller, Moody’s Economy.com (Hist.)

Home Price Index by City

(65%)

(55%)

(45%)

(35%)

(25%)

(15%)

(5%)

5%

15%

25%

Q2 2

006

Q3 2

006

Q4 2

006

Q1 2

007

Q2 2

007

Q3 2

007

Q4 2

007

Q1 2

008

Q2 2

008

Q3 2

008

Q4 2

008

Q1 2

009

Q2 2

009

Q3 2

009

Q4 2

009

Q1 2

010

Q2 2

010

Q3 2

010

Q4 2

010

Q1 2

011

Q2 2

011

Q3 2

011

Q4 2

011

Q1 2

012

Q2 2

012

Q3 2

012

Q4 2

012

Q1 2

013

Q2 2

013

Q3 2

013

Q4 2

013

Q1 2

014

Q2 2

014

Q3 2

014

Q4 2

014

Q1 2

015

Q2 2

015

Q3 2

015

Q4 2

015

Q1 2

016

Q2 2

016

National Index 20-City Composite 10-City Composite Atlanta, GA

Boston, MA Charlotte, NC Chicago, IL Cleveland, OH

Dallas, TX Denver, CO Detroit, MI Las Vegas, NV

Los Angeles, CA Miami, FL Minneapolis, MN New York, NY

Phoenix, AZ Portland, OR San Diego, CA San Francisco, CA

Seattle, WA Tampa, FL Washington, DC

Market

Indexed to Q2 2006

(July 2016)

Denver, CO 33.0%

Dallas, TX 32.8%

Portland, OR 16.3%

Seattle, WA 14.0%

Charlotte, NC 12.3%

Boston, MA 5.5%

San Francisco, CA 2.5%

National Index (1.9%)

Atlanta, GA (2.8%)

20-City Composite (9.0%)

Los Angeles, CA (9.1%)

Cleveland, OH (9.5%)

San Diego, CA (10.0%)

10-City Composite (10.9%)

Minneapolis, MN (12.1%)

Detroit, MI (14.6%)

Washington, DC (14.9%)

New York, NY (16.3%)

Chicago, IL (20.2%)

Miami, FL (23.3%)

Tampa, FL (23.6%)

Phoenix, AZ (29.4%)

Las Vegas, NV (35.8%)

Page 14: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Household Formation and Aging U.S. Housing

Stock Supportive of Home Improvement Spend

14

Household Formation Aging Housing Stock

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

40+ yrs 30-39 yrs 20-29 yrs 10-19 yrs 0-9 yrs

Source: Census, Moody’s Economy.com (Hist.) Moody’s Economy.com (Est.);

John Burns Real Estate Consulting (Housing Stock)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6E

201

7E

201

8E

Household Formation (m)

Long-term Avg.

Page 15: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Discussion Overview

Financial Results & Targets

Our View of the U.S. Home Improvement Market

Strategic Framework

15

Page 16: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

The Power of The Home Depot

Customer Experience

Connecting service to

customer needs

Connecting stores to

website and website

to stores

Capital Allocation

Driven By Productivity

And Efficiency

Connecting activities

to cost efficiency

Product Authority

Connecting assortment

to local needs

Connecting merchandise from

supplier to shelf to customer

Interconnecting Retail

16

Page 17: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Target Market Opportunity

17

Sources: 2014 HIRI Reference Guide; 2015 Harvard University “Emerging Trends in the Remodeling

Market”; NAICS; and external market analysis

$550B Addressable U.S. Market

Home Improvement Retail

Pro ($120B)

Consumer ($180B)

MRO

Services (Product Pull Through)

Services (Labor)

Pro

ducts

Se

rvic

es

U.S. Sales

$80B

Share

15%

Page 18: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Growth Driven by The Professional Customer

18

Renovator | Remodeler Installation ServicesMaintenance, Repair,

Operations (MRO)

Page 19: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Growth Driven by Interconnected Retail

19

Shopping in New Ways Seamless Experience Higher Expectations

Page 20: Diane Dayhoff - The Home Depot/media/Files/H/HomeDepot... · Second Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results 4 13.9% Earnings Per Share Growth in Q2 2016 ($ Millions USD, except per share data)

Key Productivity Initiatives

20

Supply Chain Sync

Assortment Optimization

Freight Flow and Fulfillment Team

Delivery