diamonds are black - gujarat nre coke ltd.global steel production is back above previous peak levels...
TRANSCRIPT
Diamonds are Black
There is more of Coal in your life than you know of…..
With COAL we have the electricity that lights
our houses, offices, malls and roads……
There is COAL
In the Bridges that Connect
US
In the cars that take us to our destinations
In the ships & containers that ferry our cargo
In the planes that fly us
From a safety pin to the tall buildings
COAL influences our lives
Each Tonneof Steel that we see around us
Has one tonneof COKING COAL
in it
It is COAL that has powered our Industries for ages
Without COAL
Do we want to Roll Back the
Wheels of Civilization??
Do we want to plunge into darkness ??
And cut trees to give us light ??
WithoutCOAL
Global Climate Change is a truth that we all must face but we need to ensure that facts and figures are not used to forcefully slaughter the human civilization in a fashion similar to the Y2K scare at the beginning of this millennium which turned out to be one of the biggest hoax calls in the modern era.
We would be cleaning our forests,
ending our civilizations Without COAL
Think before you say “No More Coal”
Trends in India’s Steel Production -long term outlook for
India’s coking coal demand
Coaltrans Australia16th August, Brisbane
Arun Kumar JagatramkaChairman, Gujarat NRE
DISCLAIMERThis presentation contains only a brief overview of Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Ltd and its associated entities (“Gujarat") and their
respective activities and operations. The contents of this presentation, including matters relating to the geology of Gujarat‟s
projects, may rely on various assumptions and subjective interpretations which it is not possible to detail in this presentation and
which have not been subject to any independent verification.
This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements. Known and unknown risks and uncertainties,
and factors outside of Gujarat‟s control, may cause the actual results, performance and achievements of Gujarat to differ materially
from those expressed or implied in this presentation.
To the maximum extent permitted by law, Gujarat does not warrant the accuracy, currency or completeness of the information in
this presentation, nor the future performance of Gujarat, and will not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from the use of
the information.
The information contained in this presentation is not a substitute for detailed investigation or analysis of any particular issue.
Current and potential investors and shareholders should seek independent advice before making any investment t decision in
regard to Gujarat or its activities.
COMPETENT PERSON STATEMENT
The information in this report that relates to Mineral Resources and Reserves is based on information compiled by Mr. Kris
Markowski who is a member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy.
Mr. Markowski is employed by Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited.
Mr. Markowski has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and
to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the „Australasian Code for
Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and ore Resources‟. Mr. Markowski consents to the inclusion in the report of
the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears.”
World Steel Production
• World steel production now above pre crisis levels
• Production recovery led by Asia
• China close to 50% of total global steel production
Source: WSA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e
Pro
du
cti
on
(kt)
World
China
Steel Development PatternIndia’s long term steel development pattern is similar to most countries, following the same pattern of more than a century old
China has already reached its peak in growth rate, while India
is on the rise…..
16
Global steel production is back above previous peak levels
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300
400
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600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
The golden age
1945 – 1973 6.2%pa
Oil Shocks
Fall of Berlin Wall
The efficiency
age
1974 – 1995
0.2%pa
The China
age?
1996 +
>4.5%paThe emerging age
pre 1945 2.8%pa
Consolidation
New golden age
Can 2010 – 2020 be the Indian Steel Age along with China??
The
rise of
India
The rise of Indian Steel 2010 to
2020
• Indian GDP > 9% in the current decade to
2020
• India’s growth will be demand led as
opposed to export led - more predictable
and less susceptible to external shocks
• Manufacturing is expected to accelerate
in the next few years further boosting
steel demand
• India will continue to add to her steel
making capacities
• With large high quality iron ore reserves
steelmaking will be led by the blast
furnace
• India might overtake Japan by 2015-16
• India 2001 – 26.8 kg
• India 2010 – 54 kg
• Germany – 542 kg
• USA – 337 kg
• China – 385 kg
• Brazil – 97 kg
• Japan – 654 kg
• Australia – 401 kg
• World average – 179 kg
India has Significant Steel Potential
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 f
World India
Indian Steel Production Growth Rate (in%)
Source: ministry of steel, E&Y
Indian Steel Production (MT)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Projections of Ministry of Steel, Govt of India
Indian Steel Capacity and Production trends
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E
Capacity (million tonnes) - LHS Production (million tonnes) - LHS Capacity utilization (%) - RHS
Source: RNCOS, E&Y
Net Steel Export-Import scenario
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Figure 28: Net export-import scenario in India's steel industry (million tonnes)
India became a net importer of steel in FY2008 with its importincreasing at a CAGR of 46% during the FY 08-10 period
Source: ministry of steel
Growth in Indian Steel Consumption
Source: ICRA
India’s Projected Steel Capacity by 2012-13
Source: ministry of steel
Capacity Addition projections till 2015
Year Capacity Addition (MTPA) Total Capacity (MTPA)
2010 72
2011 7 79
2012 17 96
2013 28 124
2014 20 144
2015 9 153
Projections as per work completed till date of the proposed projects and MoU signed
Source: projects monitor
Major investments proposed
Indian steel sector has attracted a staggering investment
commitment of about US$ 238 billion
222 MoUs signed
SAIL to increase capacity in phases – US$ 15.5 billion by 2012
8 MT increase by 2012 and further 4 MT increase by 2014
Set up a 12 MT Greenfield project
L&T and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) has
formed a US$ 373 million joint venture.
JSW Steel has earmarked a capex of US$ 1.6 billion for 2010-11 and
plans to increase capacity of its Bellary plant in Karnataka from 7
MT to 10 MT by end of 2010-11.
Status report of Steel projects
JINDAL STEEL AND POWER (JHARKHAND PROJECT) : 11 mtpaProposed investment: US $ 6 billionStatus: Phase-I started
TATA STEEL (ORISSA PROJECT) : 6 mtpaProposed investment : US$ 5 billionStatus: Construction of warehousing shed and building for power sub-station has commenced. Orders placed for equipment and services
TATA STEEL (JHARKHAND :12 mtpa & CHHATTISGARH PROJECT : 5 MTPA)Proposed investment : NAStatus: Pursuing acquisition of land and allotment of mining leases for iron ore & coal
JSW STEEL (BENGAL PROJECT) : 10 mtpaProposed investment: US$ 3 billionStatus : Commissioning by March 2011
JSW STEEL (JHARKHAND PROJECT) : 10 mtpaProposed investment: NAStatus : Pursuing various approvals/ clearances. Mining lease for iron ore obtained
Status report contd…
POSCO (ORISSA PROJECT) : 12 mtpaProposed investment: US$ 12 billionLand Acquisition: In progress Target date of commissioning: Phase I proposed for 2011
ARCELORMITTAL (JHARKHAND PROJECT) : 12 mtpaProposed investment: US$ 9 billionLand Acquisition: In progress Target date of commissioning: Phase I proposed for 2011
ARCELORMITTAL (ORISSA PROJECT) : 12 mtpaProposed investment: US$ 9 billion Land Acquisition: Process initiatedTarget date of commissioning: NA
ARCELORMITTAL (KARNATAKA PROJECT) : 6 mtpaProposed investment: US$ 6 billion Status : Plan announced in Jan 2010
Major Production to start post 2013
Adds up to a total capacity of over 200 mtpa by 2020
ESSAR STEEL (Orissa PROJECT) : 6 mtpaProposed investment: US$ 5 billionStatus: Phase 1 started, Phase 2 by October 2012
ESSAR STEEL (JHARKHAND PROJECT) : 4 mtpaProposed investment: US$ 5 billionStatus: Commissioning by 2012
ISPAT INDUSTRIES ( JHARKHAND PROJECT) : 2.8 mtpaProposed Investment : NAStatus : Company pursuing allocation of iron ore mines
BHUSAN POWER & STEEL (JHARKHAN D : 3 mtpa & CHATTISGARH : 1.2 MTPA)
Proposed Investment : NAStatus : Working to acquire land. Iron ore block and coal block has been allocated
RINL : 7.5 mtpa (location not announced)Status : Plans to start manufacturing flat steel products by about 2015 and aims to achieve a flat steel capacity of 7.5 million tonnes by 2018.
Source: Ministry of Steel, Company report & websites, EY Research, news articles
Indian Steel growth forecast
• 20% is not all together hypothetical. China had it for some time
• 10% to 12% is very much achievable or is it too conservative if
India’s growth accelerates?
Urgent need for Coking Coal to meet India’s projected Steel growth
2020 Steel increaseIncrease in Met Coal
Demand by 2020
10%pa 100 61
12%pa 135 84
15%pa 202 132
20%pa 361 226
• 10%pa will see a doubling of import demand
• 20%pa increase is equal to current seaborne market for all Met Coal
• Major increase in all forms of met coal
PCI = 2.1 x today’s market
HCC = more in demand at higher rates due to rising productivity ~
doubling market
MT
But From Where would all this Coking Coal Come From??
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50
100
150
200
250
300
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
Seaborne metallurgical demand 2000-2010
HCC SSCC PCI
Seaborne coking coal imports
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010F
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
Total
Total Ex-China
After the recession of the early part of the decade the “noughties” has seen an accelerating rising trend thanks to China. 2009 seen as an overcorrection from ROW.
Source: internal estimates
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
mil
lio
n t
on
nes
Seaborne Met Coal Supply
Australia USA Canada Russia Others
Australia64%
USA9%
Canada11%
Russia3% Others
13%
2009
No major changes in market structure major producers have retained position. USA retained
ability to be “swing” producer, Australian market share steady growth ~54% to 64%.
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E
Strong demand from Steel Industry and domestic unavailability causing a surge in imports
Source: CRISIL, internal estimate
MT
China’s Emergence as a major market
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
China's impact on the Met Coal Market
net Exports Imports
Net Importer
Concerns as potential
for new export threat
Concerns as potential for
new major import market
China has moved from a perceived major threat to a major new market in less than 10
years with major effects on coking coal trade flows in 2009.
Region CAGR (2005 - 2020)
Brazil, China, India 10%
Asia (excluding China & India) 2%
Europe 0.2%
Other 3%
World Total approx. 5%
Hard Coking Coal Demand Growth : 2005 – 2020 CAGR (forecast)
Source : McCloskey, Company forecasts
Met Coal demand
2008 2009 2010 f 2011 f 2012 f
Asia 129 144 163 182 184
Europe 64 46 58 63 68
S America 17 15 16 18 21
Other 10 7 11 12 13
Total 220 212 248 275 286
• Strong demand for Hard Coking Coal in 2010 and beyond
• Chinese demand remains key driver followed by India & Japan
• HCC preferred based on tight market and high BF productivity
Source: Macquarie Research, H&W Worldwide
Scenario 2011
2011-2 : 20 Mt increase in demand of hard coking coal; 12 Mt increase in semi-soft & PCI
Possible Supply sources -
USA – Likely to partly bridge the gap by exporting >50 Mt (exported 36 MT in 2008 & 33 MT in 2009)
Canada – May increase by 5-7 Mt to reach a high of ~30Mt limited by port capacity - not sufficient
Australia – Is it capable of supplying extra 25-30 Mt ? Perhaps the only option to bank upon….
Mozambique…..post 2012? Logistics and quality issues
2012 and beyond?
Demand by 2020 – >400 Mt of all Met Coals
Eastern Russia? – Early coal from Elga possible, but
>10 Mt plus would require new port, rail and cash
Indonesia ? – Some magic solution awaits for
transportation….Doubts on HCC availability and timing
Mozambique – lots of coal but with promised deadlines
unmet, fails to inspire confidence…….ports and rail???
This leaves us with = Canadian & a lot of Australian
coking coal
With accelerated recovery, coking coal supply will find it
difficult to meet demand
Coking coal price too would remain extremely high for some
years – introduction of quarterly pricing and impacts
China likely to dominate and its offshore mine and corporate
ownership is likely to accelerate. India to follow suit
Australia the major potential source has its own limitations of
logistics & capacity…….will new mines maintain quality?
Real anxiety over resources when seaborne demand
breaches >>400Mt tonnes/year.
Fundamental trends in seaborne Met coal supply
• Major challenges exist around infrastructure and
cost
• New coal basins are coming on stream but have
quality and or political factors
• Future coal quality is probably declining in current
major producers
• Future coal costs are likely to be higher than
today – with flow on effect to price
• Key issue for future is will new supply arrive in
time under strong demand conditions?
Potential sources to meet Indian Coking Coal Demand:
Established : AustraliaCanadaUSAChina
Emerging : MozambiqueIndonesiaSouth African Nations
For India some new producers are closer –but other bottlenecks make them unviable
Major seaborne supply basin
Major prospective supply basin
Major domestic supply basin
Tavan Tolgoi,
Mongolia
Shanxi, ChinaIndonesia
Central
Kalimantan
Bowen Basin
Mozambique
Tete/Moatize
Appalachia
Western Canada
East Siberia Elga
Russia Kuzbass
Australia keeps an advantage over other current / developing basins. Indonesia & Mozambique
though have geographic proximity advantages, but quality, infrastructure and steady availability
are much bigger questions Will low ash Indonesia coal assist high ash Mozambique?
9000nm
5500nm
5000nm4000nm
6500nm 6000nm
2500nm
13000nm
Mainly in the prospecting license stage
Reserves have to identified and established
Huge investment in infrastructure required before mining can actually commence
But….Mozambique, Botswana, other
African sources
As opposed to a steel plant being set up in 2-4 years time,
setting up a mine will require 6 – 8 years :
10 years to get the coal flow
Other Sources: Maruwai Indonesian coking coals
#
East Kalimantan
West Kalimantan
Central Kalimantan
SouthKalimantan
Banjarmasin
Palangkaraya
Muara Teweh
Muara Tuhup
Lampunut
Purukcahu
Muara Juloi
Key properties
• Range of coal, rank 0.8-1.8
• HCC to SSCC
• Very low ash
• Very high dilatation
• Good S and P
• Very high vitrinite
Key Issues
• Infrastructure
• Blending
• Costs
Emerging Met Coal Regions in Mongolia -Geopolitical concerns and Distance major concerns
Source: South Gobi company report
Source: ISMW
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mil
lio
n T
on
ne
s
Australian Met Coal Imports into India
SSCC & PCI HCC
Australian Coking Coal Production & Exports
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s
Australian Coking Coal Exports is estimated to grow over 5% in next 5 years
Production 2009-10 (MT)
Exports 2009-10 (A$ billion)
Exports 2010-11 f(A$ billion)
158 MT 24 31
Source : GTIS, Internal company forecasts
Highly consolidated industry with 5 big controlling almost 80% of HCC
Supply not keeping pace with Demand Frequent Force majeure events GFC – annual contracts a casuality because
of Rewriting of Contracts – quarterly contracts – nightmare for most buyers
Steel makers in major growth areas like India and China scrambling to acquire mines – rerating of the coal sector
Indian investment in Australian Coal
SectorCoking Coal
Gujarat NRE – owns and operates 2 prime quality coking coal mines in
NSW. Already invested over A$ 450 million and further A$ 350 million
being invested for up gradation of the mines
Thermal Coal
Recently, Adani Group – Acquired coal assets of Linc Energy worth A$ 2.9
billion
Other future investments
ICVL, a consortium of SAIL, NTPC, RINL, Coal India and NMDC is
scouting for coal assets in Australia
SAIL, JSW Steel, JSPL and RINL are in discussion to form a JV company to
buy coal assets
JSW Steel and Essar are also scouting for coking coal mining assets in
Australia
Australian Hard Coking Coal Producers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
BHPB Xstrata Rio Tinto Anglo Peabody Gujarat NRE Coking Coal
MTP
A
GNCCL planned output by 2015
Source: data extracted from Australia Coal Year book, Australia Mining series 2009/10
57
GUJARAT NRE COKING COAL LTD OVERVIEW
Wollongong
Kiama
Port Kembla
Port Kembla coal
loader 18 MtpaSutton
Forest
proposal
Berrima
Dendrobium
W. TahmoorAppin
Westcliff Northcliff
Southern
Coalfield
NRE No. 1
NRE WONGAWILLI
BHP Illawarra
Coal
Peabody
Metropolitan
Xstrata
Tahmoor
ASX listed hard coking coal producer
» Market capitalisation of ~A$0.6 billion
100% owner of two underground mines in NSW, Australia
» NRE No. 1 & NRE Wongawailli
JORC reserves of 99.8Mt and resources of 572.9Mt
All ROM coal sold under contract to major shareholder for captive use (Gujarat NRE Coke)
» Commercial terms based on market formula
All product exported through Port Kembla Coal Terminal
» Gujarat NRE holds 16% stake in Port Kembla
» Regional rail and port infrastructure capacity of 18Mt
Targeting to increase ROM production from 1.3Mtpa to 6.0Mtpa over the next 4 years» Target long term cash operating cost of US$39/t FOB (pre royalties, ROM)
GROWTH PLAN – PRODUCTION FOCUS
60
Wongawilli Longwall Introduced
NRE 1 Longwall IntroductionWongawilli Longwall Upgrade
HISTORICAL CAGR 50.7%
MT
FUTURE CAGR 39.6%
PROJECTED CAGR 43.7% OVER 8 YEARS
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
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77
78
79
COAL QUALITY
Typical washed coal quality
Note:
1 Based on Bowen Basin coal quality estimates
2 Based on inherent moisture content of Peak Downs coal
Source: Australian Coal Association, Company reports, Broker reports
Bulli Wongawilli
Average range for
coking coal1
Ash (%) 9.6 10.0 7.0 – 10.5
CSN (swell index)
5.5 >9.0 6.0 – 9.0
Inherent Moisture (%)
0.8 0.9 1.02
Volatile Matter (%)
21.7 24.7 17.5 – 34.0
Rank (Ro Max) 1.3 1.2 0.95 – 1.70
Fluidity (ddpm) 1,800 3,000 100 – 20,000
Sulphur (%) 0.38 0.59 0.375 – 0.750
Phosphorous (%) 0.039 0.010 0.005 – 0.080
Gujarat hard coking coal
compares well against Bowen
Basin prime hard coking coal on
almost all quality parameter
83
GUJARAT NRE COKE LIMITED
A SNAPSHOT Largest independent producer of Metallurgical Coke in India
Listed on the Bombay and National Stock Exchanges, with a marketcapitalisation of around USD 1 billion (No. of shareholders 1,60,000)
Profit earning and dividend paying with strong financials and credit rating of
AA- for long term borrowing and PR1+ for short term borrowing.
Met Coke capacity 1.25 million tons, being increased to 4 million tons by2014/15.
The 1st Indian Company to have exported Met Coke from India
Strong focus on the Environment with ISO 14001:2004 & OHSAS 18001:1999certification
4th best performing stock of the decade having given investors returns in excessof 100% per annum compounded
Rated one of the top 10 companies by 10-years profit performance
GROWTH PLAN – PRODUCTION FOCUS
0.13 0.240.50
0.68 0.68 0.68
1.061.25
2.25
4.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
20
01
-02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
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20
09
-10
20
11
-12
20
14
-15
PRODUCTION CAPACITY (MMTPA)
85
86
Strengthening
our bonds
with the
community
NRE Coal Cutters Cricket Club,
won The IPL
(Illawarra Premier League)
Accolades
In April 2008, appointed honorary
NSW “Sydney Ambassador” to
India by the Premier of NSW
This year declared as the “Person
of the Year 2009” by the Illawarra
Mercury
Premier’s NSW Export Awards
The Australian Export Awards is a
national awards program which
recognizes and honors export
excellence thorough innovation and
commitment. The Company won the
2009 Premier’s NSW Export Award in
Minerals and Energy sector and
became one of the finalists at National
level.
THANK YOU
Mr Arun Kumar JagatramkaChairman
Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited 94