3.1.1 N ielsen H omeScan

3.1.2 G ladson Product I nfor mat ion D at a

3.1.3 D oct or Survey D at a

Yi t i t ;

Yi t �D i t �i

D i t i t �i

D i t

Yi t

4.1.1 M agnit udes of W eight Loss

H ealt hy and U nhealt hy Foods

Changes by Pre-Per iod I mpor t ance

4.3.1 D emogr aphic H et er ogeneit y

4.3.2 B asel ine D iet H et er ogeneit y

m i ;

ci i pi : CP m

i ci ci

i t i ci ;

U c ::cm

mX

i

t i ci HmX

i

ci

H C C C

I F :

I F

Xpi ci

t0i ci H 0 C �pi i

I F

Xpi ci

�

�

H C

Proposit ion 1. i x bef ; af t cxi

t0i cxi t0j cx

j i j x:

t0i caf ti t0i cbef

i t0j caf tj t0j cbef

j

A ssumpt ion 1 ti ci �i ln ci i :

i

�i : �i

Proposit ion 2. X :

i ciP

i ci X : i

ci :

cici

cj

cji ; j

Pi �i ln ci :

�ici

�j

cji ; j :

X

X X X

X

A ndreyeva, Tat iana, M ichael W Long, and K el ly D B rownel l

A ssociat ion" , " A mer ican D iabet es et al .

B r eyer , B . N ., S. Phelan, P. E. H ogan, R . C. R osen, A . E. K it abchi, R . R . W ing, and

J. S. B rown

Caldwel l , John, Pat Caldwel l , John A nar�, K o� A wusabo-A sare, James N t ozi , I .O.

Or ubuloye, Je� M ar ck, W endy Cosfor d, R achel Colombo, and Elaine H ol l ings

Cummings, L inda and Gr egor y Cooper

D eSant is, Carol , R ebecca Siegel, Pr i t i B andi, and A hmedin Jemal

D ubois, P ier r e, R achel Gr i� t h, and A viv N evo

Einav, L ir an, Ephr aim Leibt ag, and A viv N evo

Espeland, M ark

Est r uch, R ., E. R os, J. Salas-Salvado et al .

Feldst ein, A . C., G. A . N ichols, D . H . Smit h, V . J. St evens, K . B achman, A . G .

R osales, and N . Per r in

for D isease Cont r ol , " Cent er s and Pr event ion"

Fost er , G . D ., K . E. B or r adai le, M . H . Sander s et al .

Fr anz, M ar ion J, John P B ant le, Chr ist ine A B eebe, John D B runzel l , Jean-Louis

Chiasson, A bhimanyu Gar g, Lea A nn H olzmeist er , B yr on H oogwer f, El izabet h

M ayer -D avis, A r shag D M oor adian et al .

Gr egg, E. W ., H . Chen, L . E. W agenknecht et al .

Gr oup" , " D iabet es Pr event ion Progr am R esear ch et al .

Leonhar dt , D avid

L indst r�om, Jaana, P ir j o I lanne-Par ikka, M ar kku Pelt onen, Sir kka A unola, Johan G

Er iksson, K at r i H emi�o, H elena H �am�al�ainen, P ir j o H �ar k�onen, Sir kka

K ein�anen-K iukaanniemi, M aur i Laakso et al .

M yt t on, Ol iver T , D ushy Clar ke, and M ike R ayner

Ogden, C. L ., M . D . Car r ol l , M . A . M cD owel l , and K . M . Flegal

Ost er , Emily

Phelan, S., A . M . K anaya, L . L . Subak, P. E. H ogan, M . A . Espeland, R . R . W ing,

K . L . B urgio, V . D iL i l lo, A . A . Gor in, D . S. W est , and J. S. B rown

Taylor , K at hr yn S., Car l J. H eneghan, A ndr ew J. Far mer , A l ice M . Ful ler , A manda I .

A dler , Je�rey K . A r onson, and R ichar d J. St evens

W ang, Y . C., K . M cPher son, T . M arsh, S. L . Gor t maker , and M . B r own

W ilding, JPH

W il l iamson, D . F., T . J. T hompson, M . T hun, D . F landers, E. Pamuk, and T . B yers

W ing, R . R ., R . C. R osen, J. L . Fava, J. B ahnson, F. B r ancat i , I . N . Gendrano I i i ,

A . K it abchi , S. H . Schneider , and T . A . W adden

W ing, R R , Paula B ol in, Fr eder ick L B rancat i , Geor ge A B r ay, Jeanne M Clar k, M ace

Coday, R ichar d S Cr ow, Je�r ey M Cur t is, Cait l in M Egan, M ar k A Espeland

et al .

020

40

60

Coe

ffici

ent

on

Tes

t P

rod

uct

Spe

ndin

g

first TSmonth

coeff upper/lower

zero_line

months from test strips

N otes

B ehavior Change: Calor ies, Quant i t ies and Spending

−40

00−

200

00

200

04

000

Coe

ffic

ient

on

Te

st P

rod

uct

Spe

nd

ing

first TSmonth

coeff upper/lower

zero_line

months from test strips

−1

00

−50

05

01

00

Coe

ffic

ien

t on

Tes

t P

rodu

ct S

pe

ndin

g

first TSmonth

coeff upper/lower

zero_line

months from test strips

−1

0−

50

51

015

Co

effic

ien

t on

Te

st P

rod

uct

Sp

end

ing

first TSmonth

coeff upper/lower

zero_line

months from test strips

N otes

−3

000−

200

0−

100

00

100

02

000

Goo

d a

nd B

ad

Cal

ori

es

first TSmonth

Good Foods Bad Foods

zero_line

months from test strips

N otes

B ehavior Change by D oct or R ankings

−1

,00

0−

500

05

00

1,0

00C

han

ge

in C

alo

ries

by

Do

cto

r R

an

k

First Month 2 to 7 Months

All Good Maj. Good Maj. Bad All Bad All Good Maj. Good Maj. Bad All Bad

N otes

Signi�cant M odule Changes

−200 −100 0 100 200Change in Calories, First Month

YOGURTVEGETABLES − CANNED

UNPREP MEAT/POULTRY/SEAFOOD−FRZNTEA

SEAFOOD − CANNEDPUDDING

PACKAGED MILKPACKAGED MEATS−DELI

MILKJAMS, JELLIES, SPREADS

FROZEN APPETIZERSFRESH PRODUCE

CRACKERSCEREAL

CARBONATED BEVERAGESBREAKFAST FOODS−FROZEN

−300 −200 −100 0 100Change in Calories, 2 to 7 Months

YEASTTEA

SUGAR, SWEETENERSSOFT DRINKS−NON−CARBONATED

SHORTENING, OILPASTANUTSMILK

JUICEICE CREAM, NOVELTIES

DRIED VEGGIES, GRAINSCONDIMENTS

CHEESECARBONATED BEVERAGES

CANDYBUTTER AND MARGARINE

BREAD AND BAKED GOODS

N otes

D iet ar y Concent r at ion and B ehavior Change

−.2

−.1

5−

.1−

.05

0%

De

cre

ase

in C

alor

ies

1 2 3 4 5Diet Concentration Qunitile

Calorie Changes and Pre−Diagnosis Diet Concentration

−.2

−.1

5−

.1−

.05

0.0

5%

De

cre

ase

in C

alor

ies

1 2 3 4 5Diet Concentration Qunitile

Calorie Changes and Diet Concentration (No Diagnosis)

N otes

Tax Equivalent s t o B ehavior Changes

−30 −20 −10 0 10% Tax (Negative = Subsidy) Producing Equivalent Change Magnitude

CARBONATED BEVERAGES

MILK

CEREAL

FRESH PRODUCE

PACKAGED MILK

VEGETABLES − CANNED

SEAFOOD − CANNED

YOGURT

PUDDING

0 5 10 15% Tax (Negative = Subsidy) Producing Equivalent Change Magnitude

SUGAR, SWEETENERS

DRIED VEGGIES, GRAINS

CANDY

CARBONATED BEVERAGES

SHORTENING, OIL

ICE CREAM, NOVELTIES

SOFT DRINKS−NON−CARBONATED

JUICE

BUTTER AND MARGARINE

MILK

N otes

Summar y St at ist ics

Panel A : Panel ist D emographicsM ean Standard D evi at i on Sample Si ze

Panel B : Panel ist Shopping B ehavior

N otes

Test Supply Pur chases B y I nfer r ed D iagnosis T ime

Outcome: Testing Supply Spending

N otes

B ehavior Change A ft er I nfer r ed D iabet es D iagnosis

Outcome: Calor i es Quant i ty i n Oz. Spendi ng ($) Spendi ng ($)

A l l M agnet H H�� ��� ��� ���

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N otes

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Ro

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stn

ess

Ch

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ries

Tim

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ust

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ssH

ou

seh

old

Ty

pe

Ro

bu

stn

ess

Alt

ern

ate

Tim

ing

Ho

me

Fo

od

No

Tim

eE

xclu

de

Dia

g.A

dd

HH

Sin

gle

Per

son

Exc

lud

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ow

Div

ide

Ad

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on

ths

Co

ntr

ols

Mo

nth

Pre

-Tre

nd

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fter

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tes

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E�ect s for \ Good" and \ B ad" Foods

Panel A : G ood Foods

Outcome: Calor ies Quanti ty in Oz. Spending ($)

Panel B : B ad Foods

Outcome: Calor ies Quanti ty in Oz. Spending ($)

�

N otes

� �� ���

Changes and I ni t ial D iet I mpor t ance

Panel A : G r oups R anked by A ggr egat e

G r oup : B ad Foods N on-B ad Foods

>

Panel B : G r oups R anked w i t h in H ousehold

G r oup : B ad Foods N on-B ad Foods

>

N otes

D emogr aphic H et er ogeneit y

Outcome: Calor i es

F i r st M onth 2-7 M onths

E d u cat i on

> ���

<

I n com e

> �

< ��

A ge

< ���

> � �

R ace� ���

Food D eser t�� ���

N otes

� �� ���

B asel ine D iet and B ehavior al R esponse

P an el A : Q u al i t y of B asel i n e D i et

Outcome: Percent Change i n Calor i es

��

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P an el B : C on cen t r at i on of B asel i n e D i et

Outcome: Percent Change i n Calor i es��� ���

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�

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N otes

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M odel F i t

Data Unrestr icted Model Restr icted Model

Single Category Change

N otes

M or t al i t y

R emission

Sleep.A pnea

Er ect i le Funct ion

U r inar y I ncont inence (M en)

U r inar y I ncont inence (W omen)

Product N umber Repor t \ Good Source" N umber Repor t \ B ad Source" Product N umber Repor t \ Good Source" Number Repor t \ B ad Source"

F r ozen P i zza 0 17 L i t e D r essi n g 4 3

C o ok i es 0 17 C o l d C er ea l 7 4

C h o co l a t e ch i p s 0 17 O l i v es 7 4

C o ok i e m i x 0 17 C an n ed V eget ab l es 8 3

So d a 0 17 G r ou n d B eef 9 6

F l av or ed Sy r u p 0 17 C an n ed B ean s 9 5

F r ozen B i scu i t s 0 17 Sou p 9 5

I ce C r eam 0 17 F r ozen F r u i t 9 5

C ak e m i x 0 17 N at u r a l C h eese 10 5

Sl i ce-n -B ak e C o ok i es 0 17 B r eak f ast B ar s 10 4

Su gar 0 17 Sa l sa 10 3

M ay on n a i se 0 16 O l i v e O i l 11 0

Sp am 0 14 P ean u t B u t t er 12 3

B u t t er 0 14 D r i ed F r u i t 12 3

C r eam er 0 12 T u n a 12 1

P o t a t o C h i p s 1 16 C ot t age ch eese 13 2

J am 1 16 E ggs 13 1

Sal ad D r essi n g 1 15 F r ozen V eget ab l es 14 1

P ast a D i n n er 1 15 Y ogu r t 14 0

Sn ack C r ack er s 1 14 Sh r i m p 15 1

B r ead 1 12 H ot C er ea l 15 0

M ar ger i n e 1 12 F r esh F r u i t 15 0

J u i ce 2 13 C h i ck en 16 0

F l ou r 2 8 F i sh 17 0

R egu l a r M i l k 3 11 L ow F at M i l k 17 0

P o t a t o es 3 9 V eget ab l es 17 0

A p p l esau ce 3 8 N u t s 17 0

P r et zel s 4 9 D r i ed B ean s 17 0

P ast a 4 9

R i ce 4 9

P i ck l es 4 3

D emogr aphic Predict or s of D iagnosis

In Diabetic Sample

N otes � ��

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Elast ici t y M at ches

Food Group M atched E last i ci ty P r i ce E last i ci ty

Categor y Est i mate

N otes