Developments in UK Business Demography

Andrew Allen

UK Business Demography

• UK user demand

• Currently available data

• Changes to accommodate business demography

• Future demand

UK User Demand

• Main user BERR • Monitoring changes in business population-

briefing politicians• Compare performance between regions

• Regional Development Agencies • To monitor policy on creating and sustaining

businesses• High growth businesses – contributors to job

creation

User Demand

• Both BERR and RDAs need data quickly

• Both central and local government demand

• Most users interested in regional variations or smaller geographical areas

Current Publication

• BERR use register data to publish VAT based enterprise registrations and de-registrations

• A narrower methodology – i.e. VAT only

• Business Demography will replace BERR VAT based publication

• Much broader - any active business included.

Need for Speed

• To satisfy UK users we have to publish as quickly as BERR VAT registrations

• Within a year of the reference period

• Problem with Business Demography – time lag for deaths - 2 years

• Reactivations

ONS Plan

• Publish on 28 November

• Birth, Death and Survival – SBS variables

• Births and Provisional Deaths 2007

• Will include NACE 3 digit and County, District for 2007

Provisional Deaths

• 2007 Deaths will be provisional.

• An estimate for reactivations has been made

• A table showing raw deaths and the reactivation estimate will be published in the press release

• Risk, but more useful for users

Other Products

• Local Authority Indicators

• Births by 10,000 adult population for each Local Authority

• Businesses with <50 employment , with growth in employment between year 1 and year 2 - for each Local Authority

Enterprise versus Local Unit

• ONS regional demography being done using enterprises

• Considered a better indicator of entrepreneurship

• Methodology already in place

• UK register focussed on enterprise continuity

• LU continuity has been a problem

Future Demand

• Investigating creating sub–annual indicators of births and deaths

• Could use all data sources, but simplest to just use VAT

• VAT quickest source.

• Beware -administrative processes can confuse signal

VAT Births and Deaths

VAT Births & Deaths Aug 2007- Sept 2008

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

32 35 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40

Weeks

VA

T B

irth

s

Births Deaths

Summary

• User demand has encouraged quick demography results

• Balance of risk between speed and revisions

• Regional demography also produced

• Administrative data flows being explored for sub-annual demography.

Issues for Discussion

• Regional - Enterprise or LU

• Speeding up annual delivery

• Higher frequency data