Developments in Land Use and Transport ModellingAuthor(s): Martyn SeniorSource: Area, Vol. 17, No. 1 (Mar., 1985), p. 63Published by: The Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of British Geographers)Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20002129 .

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Annual Conference 63

After tea, discussion of the day's proceedings, chaired by John Thornes (Bristol), centred around the fundamental question of sediment transport-whether on slopes or in rivers-for how else is Geomorphology made!

Pam Naden University of Leeds

Developments in land use and transport modelling

The main aim of the session was to examine developments in the distinctive geographic modelling work pioneered by Alan Wilson. Martin Clarke and Alan Wilson (Leeds) presented the first of three papers on dynamical systems work in human geography. Their paper, which contained an excellent bibliography, provided a review of the Leeds research programme covering a wide range of methods and applications, with some tantalisingly brief references to empirical/policy studies in health and retailing fields. New insights into the dynamics of retail facility size and location were discussed by Stewart Fotheringham (Florida), a young guest of the IBG, who extended his competing destinations gravity model into the dynamic arena. Dis continuous change between non-zero stable equilibria was stressed. Another IBG guest, Peter Rogerson (Northwestern), examined, in a migration context, the maintenance of dis equilibrium in simple nonlinear systems characterised by cyclic and chaotic dynamics, and in which forecasts are very sensitive to small parameter changes. In conclusion he emphasised needed advances in the empirical and behavioural aspects of this research.

A theme of the Clarke-Wilson paper, namely using new methods to investigate old problems, was taken up by Ludwik Mazurkiewicz (Polish Academy of Sciences) in his entropy-maximising derivation of Losch's central place system. Although his analysis was limited by its one-dimensional nature, a dynamic generalisation of the model was illustrated. Finally, Mark Uncles (Bristol) focused our attention firmly on the disaggregate end of the modelling spectrum by using data from the Cardiff consumer panel to detect, and distinguish between, intertemporal dependency and heterogeneity effects in repetitive shopping behaviour.

Given the quality of the presentations, attendance at the session was disappointing. This may well reflect an urgent need to demonstrate, in a very substantial way, the empirical policy relevance of models, many of which have been explored only numerically at present. Fortunately, we may not have long to wait for applications to health and retailing policies.

Martyn Senior University of Salford

Quantitative transport policy analysis

This session was the first joint venture between the TGSG and QMSG, and attracted high-quality presentations with a common underlying theme of subsidy to public transport.

The first module comprised two intimately related papers on the effects of non-marginal reductions in real fares in South Yorkshire. Alan Hay (Sheffield) examined empirically assertions about the impacts of low fares, using conditions in Manchester as a control. His evidence pointed to the arrest of declining patronage and greater female mobility at off-peak times, but changes in bus use by retired persons and children, and in bus trips to the city centre, could be attributed to other factors. Interestingly, middle and higher income trip

makers seem to benefit from low fares at least as much as lower income persons. Phil Goodwin (Transport Studies, Oxford) compared his work for SYCC with Alan Hay's for TRRL. He commented on some sampling differences and stressed three processes of change: short-term elasticity effects; medium-term life-cycle effects; and longer-term habit formation effects.

A substantial discussion of the two papers focused on the difficulties of isolating fare effects

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