…development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com filevascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn...

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August 10, 2012 Vascon Engineers Ltd. …development with conscience SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 13 CMP ` 40 Target ` 63 Initiating Coverage - Buy Source: Capitaline Company Profile Incorporated in 1986, Vascon Engineers Ltd (Vascon) is an EPC services and real estate development company. Vascon has presence in States like Maharashtra, Goa and Tamilnadu. The company has become turnkey solution provider in EPC segment, since the acquisition of GMP Technical Solutions in FY10. Majority of its revenues are generated through EPC services. Investment Rationale Strong Order backlog of ` 34 bn in EPC services- topline from the segment expected to grow with the CAGR of 17%: Vascon’s third party order book is growing at a CAGR of 29%. Currently, it has order backlog of ` 34 bn. Vascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR of 17% between FY12-FY14. Unique business model for real estate resulting in low D/E among peers: Majority of Vascon’s projects are through JDAs and JVs. Under JDA, Vascon acquire the development right of the land in exchange with pre-determined portion of revenues. Thus, the company doesn’t have to invest in land which is one of the major costs in construction business. This brings down the D/E of the company. Currently, company is maintaing D/E of 0.4x which is quite exceptional in real estate business. Vascon has 64 mn sq ft of land for development of which 57.4% and 6.7% comprises JDAs and JDAs with JV respectively. Focus on Township projects in suburbs – meeting customers demand: Slowdown in real estate sales in metropolitan (Tier – I) cities, due to skyrocketing prices and muted demand, has led the developers to focus on developing townships in the suburbs and Tear - II cities. Demand for residential properties is strong in suburbs due to lower to moderate cost of projects in these areas. Keeping this in view Vascon has launched various townships in suburbs of metropolitan region and Tier-II cities. These projects includes amenities such as pharmacy, market place, garden, jogging track, party halls etc. fulfilling the aspirations of the prospective customers. Outlook & Recommendation At the current market price of ` 40, the stock is trading at a P/E of 14x and 8x on FY13E and FY14E earnings of ` 2.8 and ` 5.0 respectively. We recommend BUY rating on the stock with a target price of ` 63/- (56% upside) in 18 months using the SOTP method of valuation. Key Share Data Face Value (`) 10.0 Equity Capital (` mn) 901.4 M.Cap (` mn) 3605.4 52-wk High/Low (`) 62/34 Avg. Daily Vol 14104 BSE Code 533156 NSE Code VASCONEQ Reuters Code VASC.BO Bloomberg Code VSCN IN Shareholding Pattern (as on June 30, 2012) Promoters 39% FII's 1% Institutions 2% Corporates 53% Others 5% Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Net Sales 10229.6 7121.2 7812.7 10206.4 Sales Gr. 35.5% -30.0% 9.2% 30.6% EBIDTA 982.6 278.0 785.5 1109.4 PAT 630.6 134.1 255.5 450.4 PAT Gr. 20.7% -78.7% 90.5% 76.3% EPS (`) 7.0 1.5 2.8 5.0 CEPS (`) 8.5 3.5 4.7 6.7 Financials (` mn) Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Int Cover (x) 3.3 0.3 1.6 2.0 P/E (x) 5.7 26.9 14.1 8.0 P/BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 P/Cash EPS (x) 4.7 11.4 8.5 5.9 M.Cap/Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 EV/EBIDTA (x) 6.3 21.9 7.6 6.2 ROCE (%) 7.8% 0.9% 5.9% 8.3% ROE (%) 8.9% 2.1% 3.5% 5.9% EBIDTM (%) 9.6% 3.9% 10.1% 10.9% NPM (%) 6.2% 1.9% 3.3% 4.4% Debt-Equity (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 Key Ratios Price Performance Vascon vs BSESMALLCAP -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Vascon BSESMALLCAP Analyst: Vineet P. Agrawal Tel No.: +91 22 2281 9012; Mobile: 9819510575 Email: [email protected]

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Page 1: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

August 10, 2012

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

…development with conscience

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 13

CMP ` 40 Target ` 63 Initiating Coverage - Buy

Source: Capitaline

Company Profile Incorporated in 1986, Vascon Engineers Ltd (Vascon) is an EPC services and real estate development company. Vascon has presence in States like Maharashtra, Goa and Tamilnadu. The company has become turnkey solution provider in EPC segment, since the acquisition of GMP Technical Solutions in FY10. Majority of its revenues are generated through EPC services. Investment Rationale Strong Order backlog of ` 34 bn in EPC services- topline from the segment expected to grow with the CAGR of 17%:

Vascon’s third party order book is growing at a CAGR of 29%. Currently, it has order backlog of ` 34 bn.

Vascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy

CAGR of 17% between FY12-FY14. Unique business model for real estate resulting in low D/E among peers:

Majority of Vascon’s projects are through JDAs and JVs. Under JDA, Vascon acquire the development right of the land in

exchange with pre-determined portion of revenues. Thus, the company doesn’t have to invest in land which is one of the

major costs in construction business. This brings down the D/E of the company. Currently, company is maintaing D/E of 0.4x which is quite exceptional in real estate business.

Vascon has 64 mn sq ft of land for development of which 57.4% and 6.7% comprises JDAs and JDAs with JV respectively.

Focus on Township projects in suburbs – meeting customers demand:

Slowdown in real estate sales in metropolitan (Tier – I) cities, due to skyrocketing prices and muted demand, has led the developers to focus on developing townships in the suburbs and Tear - II cities.

Demand for residential properties is strong in suburbs due to lower to moderate cost of projects in these areas.

Keeping this in view Vascon has launched various townships in suburbs of metropolitan region and Tier-II cities.

These projects includes amenities such as pharmacy, market place, garden, jogging track, party halls etc. fulfilling the aspirations of the prospective customers.

Outlook & Recommendation

At the current market price of ` 40, the stock is trading at a P/E of 14x and 8x on FY13E and FY14E earnings of ` 2.8 and ` 5.0 respectively.

We recommend BUY rating on the stock with a target price of ` 63/- (56% upside) in 18 months using the SOTP method of valuation.

Key Share DataFace Value (`) 10.0Equity Capital (` mn) 901.4M.Cap (` mn) 3605.452-wk High/Low (`) 62/34Avg. Daily Vol 14104BSE Code 533156NSE Code VASCONEQReuters Code VASC.BOBloomberg Code VSCN INShareholding Pattern (as on June 30, 2012)

Promoters39%

FII's1%

Institutions2%

Corporates53%

Others5%

Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14ENet Sales 10229.6 7121.2 7812.7 10206.4Sales Gr. 35.5% -30.0% 9.2% 30.6%EBIDTA 982.6 278.0 785.5 1109.4PAT 630.6 134.1 255.5 450.4PAT Gr. 20.7% -78.7% 90.5% 76.3%EPS (`) 7.0 1.5 2.8 5.0CEPS (`) 8.5 3.5 4.7 6.7

Financials (` mn)

Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14EInt Cover (x) 3.3 0.3 1.6 2.0P/E (x) 5.7 26.9 14.1 8.0P/BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5P/Cash EPS (x) 4.7 11.4 8.5 5.9M.Cap/Sales (x) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4EV/EBIDTA (x) 6.3 21.9 7.6 6.2ROCE (%) 7.8% 0.9% 5.9% 8.3%ROE (%) 8.9% 2.1% 3.5% 5.9%EBIDTM (%) 9.6% 3.9% 10.1% 10.9%NPM (%) 6.2% 1.9% 3.3% 4.4%Debt-Equity (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5

Key Ratios

Price Performance Vascon vs BSESMALLCAP

-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%

Aug-1

1

Sep-

11

Oct-1

1

Nov-

11

Dec-1

1

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr-1

2

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

VasconBSESMALLCAP

Analyst: Vineet P. Agrawal Tel No.: +91 22 2281 9012; Mobile: 9819510575 Email: [email protected]

Page 2: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd. www.skpmoneywise.com Page 2 of 13

Industry Overview Introduction:

• The real estate sector has emerged as one of India’s largest drivers of economic growth. As a sector, it provides large scale employment and contributes significantly to the GDP.

• The sector is divided into four sub-sectors: housing, retail, hospitality, and commercial. The housing sub-sector contributes 5-6% to the country's GDP. Meanwhile, retail, hospitality and commercial real estate are also growing significantly, catering to India's growing needs of infrastructure.

• Market size of real estate in India has grown with the CAGR of 10% between FY08 – FY11. The

sector has generated revenue of USD 66.8 mn in FY11.

• The Demand drivers for real estate are: − Growth in tourism – leisure and health care – Foreign tourist arrival in India are

expected to rise at a CAGR of 10.9% per annum during 2011-2015 – this is expected to give rise to the number of hotel beds from current 235,000 to 461,000 by 2015.

− Growing healthcare – the sector is estimated to grow @ 15% per annum from 2011-2016. India is expected to need additional 920,000 beds, entailing an investment between USD 32 bn to USD 50 bn over 2010-20

− Emergence of nuclear families and growing urbanization – Urban population is

increasing and is expected to cross 590 mn by 2030. Urbanization and growing household income is driving demand for residential real estate and growth in the retail sector.

− Positive Government policies such as

ease in housing finance, housing for economically weaker section, 100% FDI for development of townships, hotel and tourism sector.

Tier – II and Tier – III cities attracting sheen:

• The demand fundamentals of the India story are now focused around Tier-II and Tier-III cities that have sufficient economic activity, be it industrial, service sector-driven or incentive-driven programs by the State Government.

• Moderate income class is growing in these cities. Their aspirations are now well supported by

expanding credit availability - even if non-subsidized, and relatively lower land prices. All of this is helping smaller property markets to remain stable.

• Demand in cities like Bhopal, Faridabad, Lucknow, Bhubaneswar, Ahmedabad and Surat is still

holding up and rates are showing an uptrend, unlike in metros where sales numbers are pretty dismal with most builders resisting any correction, so far. Property prices in Bhopal and Faridabad have jumped nearly 25% in the past one year. Rates have also gone up in cities like Lucknow, Ahmedabad and Surat.

• Speculative elements are robust in larger markets like Mumbai and Delhi, while in Tier - II and

Tier - III cities there's mild speculation. This helps in stable and steady price appreciation than volatile price movements.

Page 3: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

• Metros have become center of attraction and are mostly investor-driven, who want to make a quick return and exit. Smaller towns are not hit by this euphoria of urban centers and are constantly doing better. Investor money is very limited in smaller towns.

• This growth in Tier-II cities and smaller towns can be attributed to rising investments across

industries including information technology and ITES, rapid industrialization leading to improvement in infrastructure and urban governance.

• Cities like Patna, Bhopal, Indore, Jaipur, Kochi, Ahmedabad, Coimbatore, Surat, Mangalore and

Gandhinagar have seen better transactional activity in the past few months as prices did not appreciate much. These markets are volume-driven than value.

• Cities like Thrissur, Trivandrum, Calicut and Kochi have seen huge activity in the recent months due to growing IT culture, pilgrimage and gold centers, and some being silk business hubs, industry experts said.

• Industrialization is also happening in the suburbs of Metros and Tier – I Cities, due to unavailability of space and demand, which is attracting developers in these areas. Development of Navi Mumbai and Talegaon near Pune are a few good examples. Given the proximity of these cities to metros or Tier-I locations, it usually has a rippling effect as industries consider these locations as an alternative.

• The saturation in Metro cities has also prompted hoteliers to foray into, Tier - II and Tier - III

cities, across India. At present, hoteliers are investing in cities like Jaipur, Chandigarh and Kochi, among others. Mid-market and luxury hotels, both are growing in these non-metro cities.

• Government policies have also significantly contributed to the development of hotels in Tier I and Tier - II cities. For instance: The approval for SEZs in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal and other states has led to inflow of businesses in these states, thereby increasing the demand for hotel rooms.

• Advantages of non-metro cities are − Lower land prices; − Lower operating cost – for instance electricity is cheaper in Bhopal

compared to Gurgaon, since the Indian government practices third degree price discrimination;

− These cities offer the diversity of tourism, which includes medical tourism, spa tourism, religious tourism, adventure tourism and business tourism. Goa and its adjoining suburbs are currently the hot favorite for medical conferences and advertising agencies. This has triggered the demand for hotel rooms in these areas.

Outlook

• Development of suburbs and Tier – II and Tier - III cities has stimulated demand for land and developed real estate across industries. Demand for residential, commercial and retail real estate is rising throughout India, accompanied by increased demand for hotel accommodation and improved infrastructure.

• Further, presence of a large number of Fortune 500 and other reputed companies will attract more companies to initiate their operational bases in India thus, creating more demand for corporate space.

• The Indian real estate market size is expected to touch US$ 180 billion by 2020.

Page 3 of 13

Page 4: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

The Company: A Snap Shot

• Vascon Engineers Ltd (Vascon) is an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services and real estate development company. It has presence in various states such as Maharashtra (Pune, Mumbai, Nagpur, Amboli), Goa, Tamil Nadu (Coimbatore) etc.

• Vascon was incorporated in 1986, primarily as an EPC company; however, it has entered in to real estate development in the past few years. It also owns and operates selected projects.

• Business mix of the company is as follows:

Source: Company and SKP Research

EPC Services:

• The Company provides EPC services for its own projects as well as third parties. The third party clients of the company includes Ruby mills (Mumbai), Symbiosis Education Institutes, Sinhagad Education Society, Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s Lab, Tata Housing, Adani Township, Goa Institute of Management etc.

• Vascon has constructed factories, hospitals, hotels, commercial & residential complexes, shopping malls, multiplexes, IT parks and other buildings under EPC services.

• The Company has completed more than 200 EPC contracts with construction over 40 mn sq. ft. as of March 31, 2012.

• Vascon currently has a strong order backlog of ` 34 bn. The Company received orders worth ` 15

bn during FY12. Maharashtra contributes 67% to the total order book followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu with the contribution of 12% and 10% respectively.

• Vascon competes with L&T, Shapoorji Pallonji & Co Ltd, Ahluwalia Contracts Ltd, B L Kashyap

& Sons Ltd, Consolidated Construction Consortium Ltd (CCCL), Punj Lloyd Infrastructure Ltd etc., in this segment.

Real Estate Development:

• Vascon’s real estate business comprises of the development of residential and office complexes, shopping malls, multiplexes, hospitality properties, IT parks and other buildings.

• Vascon ventured into real estate to garner the advantage of strong EPC base which provides cutting edge to rise above industry standards.

Vascon

EPC Services (Revenue Contribution (FY12): 60%)

Real Estate(Revenue Contribution (FY12): 17%)

GMP & Hospitality(Revenue Contribution (FY12): 23%)

Page 4 of 13

Page 5: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

• These projects are taken directly or through subsidiaries or other business entities such as joint ventures and Joint Development Agreement (JDA).

• The company focuses on Tier – II and Tier – III cities in India, for real estate development, such

as Pune, Nashik, Aurangabad, Thane, Chennai, Madurai, Belgaum and Chandigarh.

• The spectrum of real-estate development activities includes: − identification and acquisition of land; − providing EPC services and − sales and marketing of completed projects.

• Vascon has completed more than 40 projects envisaging more than 7 mn sq. ft. of saleable area,

till date. Currently, the company is developing 64 mn sq. ft. of saleable area through its different business entities of which Vascon’s share is 37 mn sq. ft.

• This segment contributed about 17% to the total revenues in FY12. Vascon is now increasing focus on real estate development which will gradually increase its contribution to the revenues and margins of the company.

GMP:

• Vascon has acquired 90% stake in Mumbai based GMP Technical Solutions Pvt. Ltd. (GMP), in FY10. GMP specializes in modular clean rooms such as Iron clean rooms, glass reinforced polymer clean room, HPL clean room, laminar air flow units etc. The Company also deals in clean room doors, fire resistant doors, load bearing ceilings, bio-safety cabinets and so on.

• GMP is also present in office partitions, air shower and barrier isolator. GMP is the only company to produce all kind of partitioning systems.

• These products finds usage in various industries such as pharmaceutical, electronics, foodstuffs,

medical engineering, surface engineering, microsystems engineering, optics, office partitions and so on.

• The company has its manufacturing facility in Baddi, Himachal Pradesh.

• GMP exports its products to Africa, Middle East, Gulf and Europe.

• Vascon is now better positioned to exploit the synergies as it has now become a turnkey solution

provider to its EPC clients in the industries such as pharmaceuticals, hospitality and health care.

Hospitality:

• Apart from EPC services and real estate development, Vascon also has stakes in renowned star rated hotels. Vascon holds-

− 43.83% stake in Galaxy resorts, Goa (3 star); − 26% stake in Hyatt, Pune (5 star); and − 28.7% stake in Holiday Inn, Pune (5 star).

• Vascon has recently sold its stake in Golden Suites, Pune for ` 40 mn.

Page 5 of 13

Page 6: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

Investment Arguments

Strong order backlog of ` 34 bn in EPC services – topline from the segment expected to grow with the CAGR of 17% in next couple of years:

• Vascon has a strong order backlog of ` 34 bn from its EPC segment. Details of the order book is as follows:

Source: Company – Investor Presentation - June 2012

• Healthy Growth: Third party order book of the company is growing at the CAGR of 29% for past

two years. The following graph indicates the order intake by Vascon from third parties, in past two years:

Source: Company – Investor Presentation - June 2012

• Residential, industrial and commercial segment contributes 33%, 30% and 23% respectively to the

total order book.

• Vascon has received ` 15.2 bn worth order in FY12, with the y-o-y growth of 24%, details of which are as follows:

Source: Company – Investor Presentation - June 2012

No. of Orders Finished (` bn) Backlog (` bn) Total (` bn)Third Party Contracts 64 13.9 24.4 38.3Own Contracts 17 2.5 9.8 12.3Total 81 16.4 34.2 50.6

9.1 12

.2 15.2

02468

10121416

FY10 FY11 FY12

`bn

Third party Orders

Project Name Location Type Contract Value(` mn)

Reniassance Industrial Park Mumbai Industrial 11,000 Parthenon Phase II Mumbai Residential 1,860 "Kshitij" Parmanandwadi Mumbai Residential 964 Delano - DLF Goa Residential 429 Tivoli Nagpur Residential 228 PNR Housing Coimbatore Residential 160 Monotype Grihaniram Pune Industrial 141 Cipla API - II Kurkumbh Industrial 135 Cipla API - II Kurkumbh Industrial 124 Cummins India Amboli Industrial 72 Symboisis Noida Institution 39 Ramkunj Finishing Work Mumbai Residential 30 Cipla Verna Warehouse Goa Industrial 23 Total 15,205

Page 6 of 13

Page 7: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

• Vascon maintains cordial relationship with its clients such as Cipla, Adani and so on by providing in time quality construction which helps them to garner repeat orders.

• With the strong order backlog and healthy reputation with its clients in place, Vascon is well

positioned to cater the industrial and residential growth in Tier – II and Tier – III cities. We expect the EPC segment of company to grow at a CAGR of around 17% between FY12 – FY14.

• Revenue mix at a glance:

Source: Company & SKP Research

Unique business model for real estate resulting in low D/E among peers:

• Vascon, generally enters in to joint development agreements (JDA) with land owners to acquire development rights to their land in exchange with pre-determined portion of revenues generated from the projects.

• Vascon’s real estate portfolio at a glance:

Source: Company – Investor Presentation - June 2012 and SKP Research

• This helps the company to gain developmental rights of lands without having to invest large

amount of money to purchase such land and thus the debt-equity ratio of the company is less than one in the industry.

69.0% 60.4% 54.4% 54.4%

19.8% 16.6% 23.4% 26.8%

21.8% 23.3% 22.3% 18.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

EPC Real Estate GMP & Others

Development Potential(mn sq ft) mn sq ft % to total share of Vascon

Land Owned by Vascon 2.9 2.9 7.8%JDAs 38.8 21.4 57.4%JVs 17.1 10.5 28.2%JDA with JV 5.2 2.5 6.7%Total 64.0 37.3 100.0%

Attributable to VasconLand Reserves

Page 7 of 13

Page 8: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

• D/E comparison:

Source: Capitaline & SKP Research

• Further, these JDAs provide Vascon with significant control over all aspect of development

and sales of the project as the company either own majority stake or control these JDAs.

Focus on Township projects in suburbs – meeting customers demand:

• The real estate prices are getting out of reach for the middle class home aspirants in metropolitan cities due to sky rocketing prices, rise in interest rates, and unwillingness of developers to bring down the prices. Gurgaon has seen the maximum price appreciation at 21.4 per cent, followed by Mumbai at 13.2 per cent, and Pune 12.5 per cent, in 2011 compared with the previous year.

• This has lead to rise in unsold residential real estate with the highest (102,758 units) units unsold in Delhi – NCR region, followed by Mumbai Metropolitan region (90,512 units), in 2011.

• Thus, the developers are now focusing on developing townships in the outskirts of

Metropolitan and Tier – II cities. This has boosted the demand for residential units in these areas due to following reasons:

− majority of the people in India belong to middle income group and the prices are moderate in these areas due to lower land prices;

− saving of time and cost of transportation when goods and services are available in one place;

− commercial activities like establishment of corporate plants and industries are also happening in these areas due to scarcity of land in metropolitan cities.

• Keeping this in view Vascon has also launched various townships near cities like Pune, Nashik, Coimbatore such as Willows, Nature Springs, Vista, Forest County, Tulips, Windmere etc. which is in the proximity of schools, and offices saving residents from long hectic travelling.

• With the success of these projects Vascon is also planning to launch some more townships like Orgadam, Chennai; Vista Phase – III, Nashik; and Neelambur, Coimbatore. These projects will include amenities like pharmacy, market place, garden, jogging track, party halls etc. fulfilling the aspirations of the prospective customers.

0

1

2

3

4

FY09 FY10 FY11

D/E

(x)

Sobha Dev DLF Unitech Vascon

Page 8 of 13

Page 9: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

Strong relationship with clients in EPC segment - enjoys repeat business:

• Vascon has developed strong and cordial relationships with its retail and corporate customers as well as investors in the real estate market, during the last two decades through high quality standards and timely delivery of projects.

• The Company, thus, enjoys repeat business with many of its EPC clients. Around 25% of the

current order book comprises of repeat order.

Key Concerns Speculative activities by investors – increases price and lowers sales velocity:

• These days, developers ropes in the investors with surplus money with a promise of stipulated returns. This causes developers to raise the prices which stagnates the demand resulting in project delays.

• The chart below shows the price and affordability mapping:

Source: Industry Data

• Any speculative interest of investors in Tier - II and Tier - III cities may result into delay in projects which in-turn may decrease the volumes (sale of units) of the company, thus, negatively impacting the topline and margins.

Rising interest rate – a cause of concern:

• The real estate market is significantly affected by changes in interest rates among other

factors such as Government policies, economic conditions, income levels, demographic trends etc.

• Any rise in interest rate (though, seems unusual at the present economic scenario) may adversely affect the topline and margins of the company.

1000118

144 136120 109

133 130 125 127 132 137 135 125 115 112 116

100 112

201

302 291

247223

205 208235

275297

345326

354 369387

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan,

05

Oct

, 05

Oct

, 06

Nov

, 07

Jun,

08

Dec

, 08

Mar

, 09

June

, 09

Sept

, 09

Dec

, 09

Mar

, 10

Jun,

10

Sept

, 10

Dec

, 10

Mar

, 11

Jun,

11

Sept

, 11

Interest Adjusted Affordability Index Inflation Adjusted Price Index

Undervalued Market

Unfair and Speculative Market

Corrective Phase

Unfair and Speculative Market

Page 9 of 13

Page 10: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

Source: Company & SKP Research

Source: Company & SKP Research

Financial Outlook

Top-line to grow at a CAGR of around 20% For FY12, net sales declined to ` 7.2 bn by registering de-growth of 30% y-o-y basis due to underperformance of EPC services division. Revenues from EPC segment declined from ` 7.1 bn in FY11 to ` 4.3 bn in FY12. This has happened due to postponement two major projects from HDIL and TNLA for almost one year. These two projects could have been resulted in the revenue of ` 2 bn in FY12.

Real Estate segment has also seen de-growth of 42% due to high interest rate and slowdown in general macro economic conditions affecting the sector.

On the contrary to the above two segments, GMP has shown an impressive growth of about 62% last year. We expect the company to grow at a CAGR of 20% between FY12-14 with the revival of economy on the back of economic reforms to be announced by the Government of India.

EBITDA margin to be maintained around 11%

Vascon has witnessed an EBITDA margin of 3.9%, a fall by 570 bps, in FY12 due to construction expenditure incurred by the company on stalled EPC projects. We expect the company to improve its margin at around 11% by FY14 on account of improvement in overall business scenario.

PAT margin to stabilize around 4.4% PAT margin has declined to 1.9% in FY12. We expect PAT margin to stabilize around 4.4% by FY14. EPS of the company is expected to grow from ` 1.5 in FY12 to ` 5 in FY14.

Page 10 of 13

134 256 450

1.9%

3.3%

4.4%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY12 FY13E FY14EPA

TM

argi

n(%

)

PAT

(`m

n)

278 786 1109

3.9%

10.1%10.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY12 FY13E FY14E

EB

IDT

A M

argi

n (%

)

EB

IDT

A (`

mn)

7.17.8

10.2

-30%

10%

31%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY12 FY13E FY14E

% G

row

th

Net

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ng In

com

e (̀bn

)

Page 11: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

Valuation

At current market price of ` 40, the stock is trading at a P/E of 14x and 8x of FY13E and FY14E earnings of ` 2.8 and ` 5 respectively. We recommend BUY rating on the stock with a target price of ` 63/- (56% upside) in 18 months using the SOTP method of valuation details of which are as follows:

Source: SKP Research Desk

Segment Valuation Multiple Value Fair ValueMethod (x) (` mn) (`)

RE NPV -- 2950 33EPC EV/EBIDTA 4 1556 17GMP EV/EBIDTA 4 1130 13Total Fair Value 5635 63

Page 11 of 13

Page 12: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

Financial Outlook

FINANCIALS(All data are in ` mn unless specified, Y/e March)

Income Statement FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Balance Sheet FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Net Operating Income 10229.6 7121.2 7812.7 10206.4 Equity Capital 901.1 901.4 901.4 901.4

Operating Expenditure 9247.0 6843.2 7027.2 9097.0 Reserves 6274.7 6404.2 6554.5 6899.9

EBIDTA 982.6 278.0 785.5 1109.4 Net Worth 7175.7 7305.5 7455.9 7801.2

Depreciation 138.5 182.3 169.0 156.7 Loan Funds 3703.5 2931.0 3080.1 3744.0

EBIT 844.1 95.7 616.5 952.8 Minority Interest 76.5 119.0 111.2 101.1

Interest 257.0 370.0 393.5 486.5 Deferred Tax Liab. 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Income 295.3 157.8 171.9 224.5 Total Liabilities 10957.4 10355.5 10647.2 11646.3

EBT 882.4 -116.5 394.9 690.8 Net Fixed Assets 2056.9 2319.0 2150.0 1993.3

Exceptional Item 0.0 391.3 0.0 0.0 Capital WIP 196.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tax 241.6 119.9 131.6 230.3 Investments 1016.2 801.0 801.0 801.0

Minority Interest -10.2 -20.8 -7.8 -10.2 Net Current Assets 7667.6 7202.0 7662.8 8818.6

PAT 630.6 134.1 255.5 450.4 Deferred Tax Assets 20.2 33.4 33.4 33.4EPS (`) 7.0 1.5 2.8 5.0 Total Assets 10957.4 10355.4 10647.2 11646.3

Cash Flow Statement FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Ratios FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

PBT 275.4 394.9 690.8 940.1 Valuation ratios (x)

P/E 5.7 26.9 14.1 8.0

P/Cash EPS 4.7 11.4 8.5 5.9

Net change in WC, Tax, Int -1256.5 -362.9 -1636.9 -2225.7 P/BV 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBIDTA 6.3 21.9 7.6 6.2

EV/Sales 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7

Capital Expenditure -465.8 -245.6 0.0 0.0 Earning Ratios (%)

EBIDTAM 9.6% 3.9% 10.1% 10.9%

OPM 8.3% 1.3% 7.9% 9.3%

NPM 6.2% 1.9% 3.3% 4.4%

ROE 8.9% 2.1% 3.5% 5.9%

ROCE 7.8% 0.9% 5.9% 8.3%

B/S Ratios

Current ratio (x) 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.4

D/E (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5

Opening Cash Balance 1047.0 980.1 445.0 689.9 Debtor Days 94.9 153.5 137.0 130.8

Creditor Days 116.9 146.2 112.5 104.9

Inventory Days 121.2 179.7 184.6 151.8Closing Cash Balance 980.1 282.2 689.9 459.4 FA/Turnover (x) 4.7 2.6 2.6 3.4

Cash Flow from Operating Activities -480.2 594.4 -302.9 -459.9

Cash flow investing Activities -681.1 124.2 0.0 0.0

Add: Depreciation, Interest & Other Exppenditure 501.0 562.5 643.2 825.7

Net Increase/Decrease in Cash & Cash equivalents -85.5 -696.2 244.9 -230.5

Investments, Sales of FA, Dividend received and others -215.3 369.8 0.0 0.0

Cash balance of acquired subsidiaries 18.7 -1.7 0.0 0.0

Cash flow from Financing Activities 177.2 -340.2 -349.5 72.4

Page 12 of 13

Page 13: …development with conscience - skpmoneywise.com fileVascon has received orders worth ` 15.2 bn during FY12. We expect Vascon’s topline for the segment to grow with a healthy CAGR

Vascon Engineers Ltd.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com

Notes:

The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. SKP Research is also available on Bloomberg, Thomson First Call & Investext Myiris, Moneycontrol, Tickerplant and ISI Securities. DISCLAIMER: This document has been issued by SKP Securities Ltd (SKP), a stock broker registered with and regulated by Securities & Exchange Board of India, for the information of its clients/potential clients and business associates/affiliates only and is for private circulation only, disseminated and available electronically and in printed form. Additional information on recommended securities may be made available on request. This document is supplied to you solely for your information and no matter contained herein may be reproduced, reprinted, sold, copied in whole or in part, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person for any purpose, in India or into any other country without prior written consent of SKP. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be strictly restricted and/ or prohibited by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about such restriction and/ or prohibition, and observe any such restrictions and/ or prohibition. If you are dissatisfied with the contents of this complimentary document or with the terms of this Disclaimer, your sole and exclusive remedy is to stop using the document and SKP shall not be responsible and/ or liable in any manner. Neither this document nor the information or any opinion expressed therein should be construed as an investment advice or offer to anybody to acquire, subscribe, purchase, sell, dispose of, retain any securities or derivatives related to such securities or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or as an official endorsement of any investment. 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Member: NSE BSE NSDL CDSL NCDEX* MCX* MCX-SX FPSB *Group Entities INB/INF: 230707532, BSE INB: 010707538, CDSL IN-DP-CDSL-132-2000, DPID: 021800, NSDL IN-DP-NSDL: 222-2001, DP ID: IN302646, ARN: 0006, NCDEX: 00715, MCX: 31705, MCX-SX: INE 260707532

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