development talks 17 september 2012 after rio +20: more growth!
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Development Talks 17 September 2012 After Rio +20: More growth!. Thomas Sterner Visiting Chief Economist EDF Professor Environmental Econ Gothenburg. Is Growth Good ?. Is Growth Good ?. Can ”GROWTH” be bad….?. Yes : for growth in simple output - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Development Talks17 September 2012
After Rio +20:More growth!
Thomas SternerVisiting Chief Economist EDF
Professor Environmental Econ Gothenburg
Is Growth Good ?
Is Growth Good ?
Can ”GROWTH” be bad….?
• Yes: for growth in simple output
• No: NOT If we mean growth in welfare and if we measure it right!
• This is environmental Economics.
Just go fast and you’ll get there
The market is great but
• Does not deal with externalities• Does not deal with public goods• Does not deal with common property• Does not deal with risk and uncertainty• Does not deal with assymetric information• Does not deal with altruism, love or envy
Is Anything New under the Sun?
• World Bank and UN workshops• Sustainable Development• Max social welfare subject to distributional equity• Is “GG” just re-packaging?
• IT IS More, used by (OECD, WB, UNEP, UN RIO+20, Korea)• Green growth defined politically, not economically
• This give us an OPPORTUNITY
Levying carbon tax, promoting low-carbon education proposed
Olympic Growth medalists
Growth Threatened
OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
• Biodiversity• Spread of Toxic substances•Manipulation of N & P cycles• Ozone Depletion, Acidification•Water, Fish stocks
We can solve these problems
• Catch shares• Water treatment and purification
Climate is special
•Longrun •Stock•Global• http://dhcp2-pc011135.fy.chalmers.se/EXEC/0/05wopec04fy3421f88wnj0rjch2c
x
CHALMERS CLIMATE CALCULATOR
EMISSIONS STOCK OF C TEMPERATURE
Christian Azar, Daniel Johansson (Frt) (1 region vs)
STABILIZE EMISSIONS
CUT EMISSIONS 1%FROM 2020
STILL T 2.5 OR 3°
SLASH EMISSIONS 2% IMMEDIATELY
Can we do this or are we doomed?
Can we do this or are we doomed?
• Amory’s House• Amory’s Hypercars • Amory’s Vision: Reinventing Fire• 0 coal 0 oil, Less Gas; 0 Nuclear• No regulations – just smartness: • The ”Search for Intelligent Life on Earth”
Ask Me---
• I think you can – but it will be difficult:
•Q=YP-β
•Emissions rise with income unless prices rise even faster!
Can u ”combine growth & environment”?
• YES.• 5 % growth in Income and 2% DECREASE in
emissions ????
• EASY: Price of gas has to rise by 9% every year.
All you have to do is get everyone to agree
• But, everyone does not agree.• Taxes not popular• Countries divided on goals & means• Fairness in allocation looms big
Nigeria abolished fuel subsidy Jan 1
This was what failed in COPenhagen
• Pretend it does not matter• Have ”green growth” ”instead”?
Green Growth will require agreement
• But plenty to do: • Reseach and Education• Infrastructure• Wind and Solar and Efficiency• Agriculture and Forestry• Short Lived Climate Forcers• Bottom up linking of carbon trading
REMEMBER
• Taxes to back up those who invest in the new fire.
• Feebates, road pricing, feed-in tariffs…• Utlimately grand deal and carbon price
needed.