development scenarios for the electricity economy of lithuania

15th IAEE European Conference 2017

u www.tugraz.at

Development Scenarios for the

Electricity Economy of Lithuania

06.09.2017

Udo Bachhiesl, Gerald Feichtinger, Heinz Stigler

Institute of Electricity Economics and Energy Innovation

Graz University of Technology

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Content

General energy economic framework

Simulation model ATLANTIS

Lithuania and the Baltic states

Scenario calculations

Conclusions

06.09.2017

Udo Bachhiesl, Institute of Electricity Economics and Energy Innovation/TU Graz

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General Energy Economic Framework

Global

8 Millennium dev. goals 2015 17 Sustainable dev. goals 2030

Paris Climate Agreement 2016

European Union

Energy strategic goals

Energy targets 2020: 20/20/20

Energy targets 2030: 40/27/27

Energy roadmap until 2050: GHG reduction up to -95%

Energy and climate related European guidelines

National implementation of energy guidelines

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Energy Political Frame for the Baltic Region

Energy markets of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania still lack adequate

electricity connections, both between themselves and to other parts of

the EU

Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) forms part of the

overall 'EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region'

Projects of BEMIP part of European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP)

Currently the EstLink 1 and 2 connections between Estonia and

Finland, the LitPol Link connection between Lithuania and Poland and

the NordBalt connection between Sweden and Lithuania have raised

the interconnectivity of the Baltic States with the EU electricity market

Nordic electricity market model (NORDEL) will be extended to the

three Baltic States

Lithuania closed its last nuclear reactor, which had been generating

70% of its electricity, at the end of 2009, due to EU pressure

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Simulation model ATLANTIS

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36 Countries

180 Companies

5.053 Nodes

9.866 Lines

25.711 Powerplants


Simulation process in ATLANTIS

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simulation period

2006 to 2050 (max.)

≈48 + 2 system adequacy

calculations p.a.

>2160 load flow calculations

2160 × power exchange

2160× Redispatch

simulation time: ≈48 h

produced data: ≈4 GB

applied software packages

ACCESS/VBA & MS SQL

GAMS, MATLAB,

EXCEL, ArcGIS, C#

database

scenario definitionscountries, fuel price development, demand development, inflation,

economic growth, interest rates, CO certificates, projects ...2

for annual peak load, (if necessary replacement of old capacities and “optimized” power plant placement)

system adequacy

for the peak and off-peak periods of each month

energy balance, dispatch, electricity exchange

for the peak and off-peak periods of each month

load flow and redispatch

annually for each company

financial accounting and CO -emissions2

graphical representations for each company and each market

analysis of results and reporting

power plants, grid, load profile, companies, balance sheets, fuelssystem services, markets, availabilities, maintenance, …

ye

ar

+ 1


Modelling of the Baltic states

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Electricity Economy in Lithuania (1)

Energy Strategy 2020

Integration European Energy Market

Development of Energy Sources (RES)

3rd EU Energy package

Further Liberalisation of E-Market

Energy Efficiency

Sources of Electricity Production

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Electricity Production/Consumption in GWh

Gas

Hydro

Wind

Other

Biomass

Solar Waste

Shift from exporting to

importing country


Development of installed power plant

capacity in Lithuania

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Installed Capacity

Nuclear

Renewables

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Other

Thermal (total)

CHP

Coal

Gas

Oil

Biomass

in [MW]

Simulation horizon


The electricity system of Lithuania

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LitPol

NordBaltIgnalina

Level of interconnection: from 4% to 22%


Scenario calculations

Simulation up to the year 2030

Investigated scenarios:

Scenario 1: Consequences of closing of the nuclear power

plant Ignalina

Scenario 2: Connection of Baltic states to the European

continental network and the Nordic states

Scenario 3: Synchronisation with the electricity system of

continental Europe and simultaneously de-synchronisation

from IPS/UPS-system in 2025.

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Scenario 1: Shut down of NPP Ignalina (1)

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before shut down after shut down


Scenario 1: Shut down of NPP Ignalina (2)

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Scenario 2: Connection to ECN/NORDIC (1)

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Scenario 2: Connection to ECN/NORDIC (2)

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Scenario 3: Synchronisation with European

Continental System (1)

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Scenario 3: Synchronisation with European

Continental System (2)

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Summary and Conclusions

Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP)

Aim: open and integrated regional electricity market in Baltic sea region

Implementation of 3rd energy package, infrastructure construction

Action plan to 2020, TYNDP

Synchronisation with continental European network 2025

Status

Baltic states have substantially increased level of interconnection:

2* EstLink, , LitPol, NordBalt

Positive impact on electricity prices and import dependency

2020 RES target already reached

Outlook

Synchronisation with continental system until 2025

Further simulations/investigations: NPP Visaginas, prices, capital stock..

06.09.2017


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Assoc.Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr.techn.

Udo Bachhiesl

Technische Universität Graz

Institut für Elektrizitätswirtschaft

und Energieinnovation

Inffeldgasse 18

8010 Graz

Tel.: +43 316 873 7903

Fax: +43 316 873 10703

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.IEE.TUGraz.at

06.09.2017


19 Thanky you for your attention!

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.IEE.TUGraz.at

development scenarios for the electricity economy of lithuania

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