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Insert the title of your presentation here
Presented by Name Here Job Title - Date
Development of fault trees
Presented by Brian Lawton and Marcus Dacre
Accident types
Page 2
Derailments
Collisions with trains
Collisions with obstacles
Level crossing accidents
Fires in rolling stock
Accidents to persons caused by rolling stock (excluding suicides)
Step 3: Define harmonised
and accepted precursors
Step 1: Causal fault trees
ERA Literature review
Existing models UIC
Step 2: Detailed insight
RU/IM survey NSA data from
ERA
Consolidation of Steps 1 and 2
Workshop with ERA/NSA/RU/IM
Method overview
Page 3
Theoretical understanding
Page 4
Literature review
Existing risk models
- Rail
- Other industries
Development of Accident Precursor Inventory (API)
Data:
- ERA
- UIC
- Other rail models
Fault tree development
Literature Review Approach
How fault trees are best displayed and precursors grouped
Alternative ways of graphically showing precursor information
Accident precursors across Europe and beyond
Details of additional precursor models
Search terms included:
- Risk and modelling related terms
- Transport modes
- Accident types
- And more …
Search terms
Literature Review Findings
Lots of high level information on railway management
Lots of information explaining differences between EU railways
Empirical data are limited
Publically available material on precursor modelling is limited, though many precursors were identified
However, some material identified via existing models
And Step 2 later identified more relevant information
Existing rail risk models
Page 8
GB Precursor Indicator Model (PIM)
Det Norske Veritas (DNV) freight train derailment
Rail Optimisation Safety Analysis model (ROSA)
Risk landscape model – Federal Office of Transport for Swiss Railways
Irish Rail Safety Risk Model
Generic Error Modelling System (GEMS)
Safety Risk Model (SRM)
London Underground Quantified Risk Assessment (LUQRA)
Korean Risk Assessment Models
Constructing and populating the fault trees
Informed by:
- Literature review
- Other precursor models
- Information from UIC and ERA data
- Existing CSIs
High level fault trees have been constructed
There is likely to be more variation at lower levels
Publicly available information was limited
Step 2 provided further information
Example - Derailment
Page 10
Example continued – Derailment due to human error
Page 11
Page 12
Do You Have Any Questions?
