Development in the SouthwestEnergy, Water, Land, and Sustainability Challenges

March 2010

Mike HightowerDistinguished Member of the Technical Staff

Sandia National Laboratories (505) 844-5499

mmhight@sandia.gov

Sandia is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

shortage sufficiency

• In 1990, poor water supply and sanitation was the 2nd leading cause of death and disability worldwide.

• In 1998, 25 million “water” refugees compared to 21 million war-related refugees .

• Over 50% of world’s major rivers are dry or heavily polluted.

• By 2025, 20% more fresh water will be needed for irrigation and 40% more for cities to maintain current per capita water levels.

1950

1995

2025“Water promises to be to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th century: the precious commodity that determines the wealth of nations.”

Fortune Magazine, May 15, 2000

CI_539b_10/31/00

Over half the world’s population will face severe water shortage in the next 50 years

Mid-latitude

Mid-latitude

Natural Resources Discussions – Often Narrowly Focused

Hydrogen Car Example:CH4 + 2H2O → 4H2 + CO2

Electric Car Example:

Electric Power Plant Major Location Selection Criteria

• A traditional thermoelectric power plant is located based on four major technical criteria:– Access to a fuel supply– Access to transmission capacity– Access to a water supply for cooling water– Airshed quality

• A renewable energy power plant is located based on similar technical criteria, plus:– Appropriate quality and appropriate areal extent of renewable or

distributed resource (wind, geothermal, solar, biomass, hydro) – Managing intermittency of the resource (mostly wind and solar concerns)

Growing Limitations on Fresh Surface and Ground Water Availability

• Little increase in surface water storage capacity since 1980

• Concerns over climate impacts on surface water supplies

• Many major ground water aquifers seeing reductions in water quality and yield

( Based on USGS WSP-2250 1984 and Alley 2007)

(Shannon 2007)

Most State Water Managers Expect Water Shortages Over The Next Decade Under Average Conditions

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

COIL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MACT

DE

RI

Legend

shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

COIL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MACT

DE

RI

Legend

shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

COIL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MACT

DE

RI

Legend

shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

COIL

OR

UT

KS

WY

IANE

SD

MN

ND

OK

FL

WI

MO

AL

WA

GA

AR

LA

MI

IN

PA

NY

NC

MS

TN

KYVA

OH

SC

ME

WV

MI VTNH

MD

NJ

MACT

DE

RI

Legend

shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain

Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade

under Average Water Conditions

AK

HI

HI

HI

HI

HI

Source: GAO 2003

Southwest Climate History

10

12

14

16

18

20

Year

Avg. Precipitation

(inches)

• Most growth in water stressed regions

• Most new plants expected to use evaporative cooling

Growth in Thermoelectric Power Generation

Source: NETL, 2004

Projected Thermoelectric Increases(Capacity in 2025 vs 1995)

Utility-scale Solar Energy Resources

• Filtered data– Available, flat, no

environmental concerns, etc.

• Still tremendous resources at 6.75 kWh/m2/day– AZ 2.5 million MW– NM 1.9 million MW– CA 0.8 million MW– NV 0.7 million MW

• Significantly more resources at 6.0 kWh/m2/day

Utility-Scale Solar Opportunities and Needs

• Connected directly to transmission grid– Voltage > 69 kV– To date all PV systems are <69kV, though some are in planning– Kramer Junction Troughs are 115 kV

• As of August 2008 …– CSP

– 3,000 MW advanced stage of planning– 33,000 MW in CA ISO queue– 69,000 MW of applications to BLM

– PV– 11,000 MW in CA ISO queue– 21,000 MW of applications to BLM

• Expected CSP needs in the Southwest– 6,000-10,000 MW

Electric Power Generation Water Consumption

Plant-type Cooling Process

Water Use Intensity (gal/MWhe)Steam Condensinga Other Usesb

Withdrawal Consumption Consumption

Fossil/ biomass steam turbinec

Open-loop 20,000–50,000 ~200-300~30-90d,iClosed-loop 300–600 300–480

Dry 0 0

Nuclear steam turbinec

Open-loop 25,000–60,000 ~400~30dClosed-loop 500–1,100 400–720

Dry 0 0Natural Gas Combined-

Cyclec

Open-loop 7,500–20,000 10010eClosed-loop ~230 ~180

Dry 0 0Coal Integrated

Gasification Combined-

Cyclec

Closed-loop 200 170 150c,e

Dry 0 0 150c,e

Geothermal Steamf Closed-loop 2000 1350 NA

Concentrating Solarg,h

Closed-loop 900 900 10Dry 10 10 10

Wind and Solar Photovoltaicsj N/A 0 0 1-2

Carbon sequestration for fossil energy generation

Fossil or biomassk All ~90% increase in water withdrawal and consumption

Electric Power Generation Cooling Options

Condenser

Pump

Steam

Condensate

FreshwaterSupply

Blowdown

CoolingTower

WaterVapor

500-600 gal/MWh

~480 gal/MWh

Condenser

River

Steam

Condensate

20,000-50,000 gal/MWh

~300 gal/MWh

Increased River Evaporation

Once-Through Cooling Closed-Loop (Evaporative) Cooling

Dry-Cooled Power Plant

Dry and Hybrid Cooling Issues and Opportunities

• 90% Less water consumption

• 6 % loss in production

• 20% reduced capacity at hottest hours

• 10% increase in capital cost

• 1-2 ¢ /kWh increase in cost of power

Concentrating Solar Power Technology

Trough Towers Dishes

Steam Turbine Generator Stirling Engine-Alternator Dispatchable, Integrates with Storage High Efficiency, no Storage

• Most cost effective >250MW

• Operating temp: 400C• Annual efficiency:

14%

• Most cost effective >250 MW

• Operating temp: 560C

• Annual efficiency: 18%

• Modular 30 kW units – more flexibility in siting

• Operating temp: 800C

• Annual efficiency: 23%

Options to Address Renewable Generation Intermittency and

Capacity Factors

0 6 12 18 24

Solar Resource

CSP Generation w/ Storage

Hourly Load

Molten Salt Storage + Natural Gas Geographic Diversity of Energy Generation

Growing use of non-traditional water for cooling

Palo Verde – largest Nuclear Power Plant in the US, uses waste water for cooling

Growing Use of Non-traditional Water Resources

• Desal growing at 10% per year, waste water reuse at 15% per year• Reuse not accounted for in USGS assessments• Non-traditional water use is energy intensive

(Modified from Water Reuse 2007, EPA 2004, Mickley 2003)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Kw

h/m

^3

1 2 3 4 5Sea WaterRO

Today The Future

ConventionalTreatment

BrackishRO

BrackishNF

Power Requirements For Treating

(Einfeld 2007)

Non-traditional Water Resource Availability

Saline Aquifers Oil and Gas Produced Water

Electric Power Generation Land Requirements

Plant Type Plant Size(MWh)

Land Area(acres) Land Size Unuseable

Land SizeCapacity

Factor

Coal/ biomass or gasification w/ steam turbine

500 - 1000 MW 640 1 mi X 1mi All .95

Nuclear Steam 500 - 1000MW 640 1 mi x 1 mi All .95

Natural Gas Combined-Cycle 200 -500 MW 320 0.7 mi x 0.7 mi All .95

Geothermal Steam 200-500 MW 320 0.7 mi x 0.7 mi All .95

Concentrating Solar

500 MW 3000 2.2 mi x 2.2 mi All0.3 - 0.4

1000 MW 6000 2.8 mi x 2.8 mi All

Wind 500 MW 23000 6 mi x 6 mi 640 acres

0.3 - 0.41000 MW 46000 8.5 mi x 8.5 mi 1280 acres

Biomass and Water Use Impacts Will be Regional

Water Demand/Impact of Transportation Fuels

Gallons of Oil per Acre per Year

Corn 18Soybeans 48Safflower 83Sunflower 102Rapeseed 127Oil Palm 635Micro

Algae1000 -

7000• High biomass productivity potential• Oil feedstock for higher energy-content fuels• Can avoid competition with agricultural

lands and water for food & feed production• Can use non-fresh water, resulting in reduced

pressure on limited fresh water resources• Captures CO2 and recycles carbon for fuels and co-products

Land Needed for Biofuel to Replace 50% of Current Petroleum/Diesel using oil from: Corn Soybean Algae

Algae has potential advantages over corn, cellulosic materials, and other crops as an alternative to petroleum-based fuels

The Promise of Algae-Based Biofuels

Distribution of Non-Fresh Produced Water, Saline Aquifers, and CO2 Emitter Sources

Co-Location Opportunities for Algae Biofuels Production

Fire Frequency, Size, and Severity Are Increasing

Current trends show that the number, size, and severity of forest fires has grown significantly over the past two decades

Two sources contribute: forest management practices and climate change

Forest Management Contribution

Many small trees, high intensity fires

Few large trees, low intensity fires

• Past forest and fire management practices have contributed to increased fuel loads and fire severity.

• Future management practices must consider climate change impacts.

(Tree Diameter)

Climate Change ContributionsClimate change will compound already unhealthy forest conditions

Uncertainty is high, but potential consequences are severe

If trends continue, forest ecosystems in western states could be substantially reduced by 2030-2050.