development and application of comprehensive transportation demand management model dewan masud...
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Development and Application of Comprehensive Transportation Demand Management Model
Dewan Masud KarimSenior Transportation Planner
City of TorontoDecember 2, 2014
Complete Mobility@DewanMKarim
Managing Finite Resources
Emerging Face of Urban Mobility
Emerging Mobility
Current TDM Gaps
Comprehensive Approach
Sample TDM Model
Implementation, Delivery, Monitoring
Source: Emily Elert, Daily Infographic: If Everyone Lived Like An American, How Many Earths Would We Need? 10.19.2012.
If Everyone Lived Like An American, How Many Earths Would We Need?.
Finite Planet
Source: Peter Berg, Fist Currencies on a Finite Planet, Simon Fraser University, 2012.
"Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed."
— Mahatma Gandhi
Managing Finite Resources
20th century: struggle of ideologies
21st century: struggle against depletion of natural resources, finite planet
Current global crisis is not a temporary phenomenon!
“If we could first know where we are, and whither we are tending, we could better judge what to do, and how to do it” – Abraham Lincoln
Managing Finite Resources
Source: James Gustave Speth, America the Possible: Menifesto for a New Economy, Online Publishing, accessed on November 8, 2012.
<1700 ~1900 1920~40 ~1960 1970~80~1800
Brief History of Transport (R)evolutionEvolution of Transport
Technologies
~2003
Peak Travel How Transport Shaped Our Health, Environment & Social Life
>20001987~92 >1990 ~2000 ~2005 2008 >2008>1980Congestion & Declining
Safety
Brundtland Commission
& Earth Summit
Adult Obesity & Pollution Epidemic
Child Obesity Crisis
Retiring Babyboomers &
Return of Walking
Beggining of Peak Travel
Surprising Rise of Cycling
Funding Shortfall &
Credit Crisis
Complete Street &
Mutltimodal System
1980~
The ones who see things differently: They Have No Respect for Status Quo, Have Broken all Traffic Rules
The Anti-Moses
Janette Sadik-Khan Mayor Myung-Bak Lee
The Highway Builder & Destroyer
Donald Appleyard Hans Moderman Ian GehlJane Jacobs
Grandmother of Humanistic Planning
Creator of Complete Street
Inventor of Shared Street
The Human Scale
Current Imbalance in Transport
Current Fragmented Approach
Planning
Problem
Transit planning without walking & cycling is worthless
Rise of ridesharing services and
concerns
a. Conventional Approach b. Sustainable Approach
Environmental and Social /Cultural Limitation
Paradigm Shift of Urban Transport Policy
Emerging
Mobility
Dark Matter (96%)
Visible Matter (4%) Our Current
Planning, “Predict &
Provide”, is like visible
matter
Most of future transport
planning, “demand management” is like
dark matter
Micro-mobility
Inter-city
Suburbs
City Core
Transit Core
Travel Distance
Travel
Dis
tan
ce
Public Transportation
Intercity Train
TOD Suburbs
Multimodal
Shared Mobility
Shared Mobility
High-Density
Modal Relations
TRANSITCAR
OWNERSHIP
Future Commuting2020
World Changing Transportation Model
CARSHARING
CAR RENTA
L
TAXI
WALKING
BICYCLING/ BIKE SHARE
Driving Force of Generational Change
Source: Image Credit: 1. http://moocowcow.wordpress.com/2009/07/31/suica-cards-and-getting-to-my-home/; 2. Darren Goldstein photo, http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1182075--toronto-condo-boom-being-fueled-by-single-women; 2. Info from: PWC, A shift to cloud computing and its impact on revenue recognition, http://www.pwc.com/us/en/increasing-it-effectiveness/assets/cloud-computing-revenue-paper.pdf 33. The Institute of Engineering and Technology and ITS UK, Local Authority Guide to Emerging Transport Technology, accessed on Nov 21, 2014.
Collaborative
Sharing
“Cloud computer offerings typically have usage-based, "pay as you go" pricing for transportation”
“Pay-as-you-go”
Generation
“Toronto condo boom being fueled by single women (30%). They live nearby. Walk or take transit for commuting” – The Toronto Star
“Live-as-you-go”
Generation
“Use-as-you-go”
Generation
RFID Disable People Crossing
GreenMan+ for Seniors, Singapore
Smartphone Controlled Traffic Signal, Dublin
Traffic Control Inside Car
Shared Car/Bike Parking
Source: Frost and Sullivan, Future Mobility, Mobility Guidelines, EU and UITP, 201.
Emergence Mobility Providers
Global Mega Mobilit
y Trend
Urbanization
Carsharing/Carpooling
New Micro Mobility
Cheaper Public
Transport
New Business Models
E-mobility Mega & Smart Cities
Integrated Mobility
New Rail Technology
Rise of Social Media
Connected and
Wireless World
Ecoboomers
Mobility Integrators
Online Mobility Service
s
Smartphone &
Collaborators
Mobility Operatio
ns
Technology Solution
ProvidersPayment & Fare
Integration
Mobility Integratio
ns
Easy and Simple Access
Key Principles
INTEGRATION OF LAND-USE AND TRANSPORTATIONCreating places that reduce automobile uses
by providing
Good Destination accessibilityShort Distance to transitPedestrian & Cycling –friendly Design
Diversity of land-uses
Density for jobs & residents
Demand management$
Travel Behaviour is changing
Ward 23 & 24 Combined
And Changing in better directions
Mobility Share: Existing/Expected Trend
Mobility Trend
Mobility Change
Area/Secondary
Plan
Concept of Mobility Change with TDM
Demand Management Policy Highlights
Reduce
Demand
Car Sharing, Carpooling
• Smart Commute Program
• Cyclist Facilities
• Parking Supply Management
• Business Improvement Area
• Mandatory Travel Demand Study
Structural Problem TDM Programs
Strength Weakness
Opportunity Threat (SWOT)
TDMBest
Practices
Guidelines/TDM
Resources
TDM Plan + Implementati
on
TDM Delivery + Sustainable
Framework
TDM Performance Measurement
s
TDM Monitori
ng
Person Trips
The waste of limited urban space
For short trip (<10km): 5km each way
Vehicle
X90=
Source: Comparing travel space needs per person, Infographic created by Matthew Blackett, Spacing.ca
Efficiency of Transport Modes
Demand & Supply Management
Conceptual
Framework
Moderation of Activities
F
Reduction of Movement
Reduction of Vehicle Traffic
Deconcentration of Traffic
Efficient Use of
Vehicles
Change of Time
Change of Route/
Destination
Modal Change
Flexible Work
Schedule
No-car Day
Staggered Work Time
Time Restriction of Truck Movement
HOV Promotion
Joint Distribution System
Compressed Work Week
TeleworkingLand-use
Policy
Walking & Cycling
FacilitiesAccess to
Transit
P&R, K&R Facilities
Priority Non-Auto Zone
Destination of Truck Route
Parking Management
Carpool
TMA
Employee TDM
TIA
Road Pricing
ICT
Deployment of Logistics
Outcome
Car-Share
Ride-Share
Pattern of Traffic VolumesA:
Steeles
B: Finch
C: Church
Congestion exists on short-duration during the peak periods
TDM TargetsA
B
C
A: Steeles
B: Finch
C: Church
TDM TargetsA
B
C
Reducing 10% of peak period trips if sufficient to manage congestion
Comprehensive Bicycle Parking Planning
Bicycle
Parking
Model
Parking Demand
Municipal Bylaw
Comparison
Parking
Supply
Comparison of International
Bylaw
Bicycle Ownership (Area
Survey)Bicycle
Demand, Distance & Mode
Split(TTS)
Site Generate
d Trips
BackgroundArea
Demand
Local Feeder Model: Nearby development/ populations
System Feeder Model: Bicycle Network
Point Location Model: Nearby development/ populations
Socioeconomic & Land-use Characteristics
TypeLocatio
nCost
Types of Bicycle Facility
Requirements as per Land-use(Smart Code Module)
Comprehensive Bicycle Parking Planning
Bicycle
Parking
Supply
(Rates)
Comprehensive Bicycle Parking Planning
Bicycle
Parking
Supply
Short-term
Storage LocationPreference (Area
Survey)
Long-
term3,055
1,125
On-street
Off-street
Bike-ringBike Corral
Horizontal
Vertical
340
785
Transit
Secured: Bike Lockers
Horizontal
Vertical
610
1,530
915
Shelter
Building Edge
Underground
Building
Corners
Type of Bicycle parking by
Distance and Time (Danish Cyclists
Federation)
On-board
At Station Area
Bikes-on-buses
Bikes-on-train
Park-n-Ride
Bike Station
450
ShowersWater ClosetsWash Basins
Area Car Share Planning
Car-shareLand-use
Planning
Scenario 1: Original Development without
CarsharingScenario 2: Increased Density
Scenario 3: Increase Open Space
Area Car Share Planning
Car-Share Dema
nd
X =% % %
Potential Car-share Market
Area Car Share Planning
Car-share Model
Potential Car-share Market
X =Housing
UnitPeople per Unit
Number of Potential Car –share User
%
Walking Distance~40
0
Station Size
Car-share
Operators Input
Fleet Size (Total # car share
vehicle)
=42
Shared
Parking
Model
Shared Parking Management
TDM Benefits of Parking
Reduction
Integrated Mobility Struggle of New Service Provider
Integrating All Modes Under One Umbrella
Service Provider
TDM Delivery: Challenges & PossibilitiesPossibiliti
es Limitatio
ns
Expanded TMA
Missing Local StakeholdersCross-border
Coordination, Coverage for All Major Land-Uses
New TMA
Missing Local StakeholdersLimited Market/ Land-Uses
Coordination Issues, Limited Services, Cover only Large Employers
Perfect Delivery Entity
Existing
Expanded TMA+No Model to Work with BIA,
Community Organization and Condo Associations
Coverage for All Major Land-Uses
Local Stakeholders
Standard Performance Measures
Inputs
Outputs Outcomes
OutreachMarketin
g
Awareness & satisfaction
Alternate Mode
Use Emissions Reduced
Costs Save
d
Travel Impac
ts
Track SOV trips reduced
Track # of meetings with employers Track # of new
organizations recruitedTrack amount of
literature distributed
Track # of ads/radio spots placedTrack # of Facebook/Google ad
words
Track # telecommmutersTrack # of Guaranteed Ride HomeTrack # carpool/vanpools
Track # of P&R lotsTrack # of new commuters switching modes
Track # of commuters who recall marketing campaigns Track # of
surveys administered
Gauge satisfaction with services received
Track VMT reduced
Track % of VMT reduced
Track % of all trips taken by carpool/vanpool
Track emissions reduced
Track greenhouse gas emission reduction
Track commuter costs saved
Summary of TDM Measures
Key Measures
VMT reduced
SOV Trips reduced
Supporting
Measures
Emissions reduced
Fuel saved
Cost per VMT reduced
Cost per vehicle reduced
Source of
Public Accountability &
Confidence
Thank you and Questions
Dewan Masud Karim, P. Eng., PTOETransportation Planning Engineer
City of Toronto 5100 Yonge StreetTel: 416-395-7076
Email: [email protected]