developing your retirement income strategy€¦ · deferred payout annuity (longevity insurance)...

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WEBCAST PREMIERE October 11, 2017 | 7 p.m. (ET) Richard Fullmer, CFA Judith Ward, CFP ® Roger Young, CFP ® DEVELOPING YOUR RETIREMENT INCOME STRATEGY

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Page 1: DEVELOPING YOUR RETIREMENT INCOME STRATEGY€¦ · Deferred payout annuity (longevity insurance) Similar to the above, plus… Significantly lower upfront cost Focuses on longevity

WEBCAST PREMIEREOctober 11, 2017 | 7 p.m. (ET)

Richard Fullmer, CFA

Judith Ward, CFP®

Roger Young, CFP®

DEVELOPING YOUR RETIREMENT INCOME STRATEGY

Page 2: DEVELOPING YOUR RETIREMENT INCOME STRATEGY€¦ · Deferred payout annuity (longevity insurance) Similar to the above, plus… Significantly lower upfront cost Focuses on longevity

2

Average Household Expenditures for Older Americans

$36,800 $32,038

$24,740

$5,112 $5,715

$5,814

$16,868

$11,722

$7,570

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

55 to 64 years old 65 to 74 years old 75 years old +

Discretionary

Health Care

Essentials

Shares are rounded to the nearest full percentage point for each category and, as a result, may not sum to 100%.Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey. Categories considered essentials are apparel and services, food, housing, and transportation.

63%

30%

7%

63%

29%

9%

65%

20%15%

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3

Potential Health Care Costs in Retirement

Lower earners(median OOP)

Mid-range earners (median OOP)

Highest earners(top-quintile OOP)

Modified adjusted gross income (2015):

Individuals $85k or less $107k–$160k Over $214k

Married Filing Jointly $170k or less $214k–$320k Over $428k

Medicare Part B and D Premium $2,250 $4,250 $6,700

Out-of-Pocket (OOP) $750 $750 $2,000

Medigap Premium(estimated median) $2,400 $2,400 $2,400

Total Excluding LTC $5,400 $7,400 $11,100

Data sources: medicare.gov (Part B); Jester Financial Technologies (Part D and Medigap); Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (out-of-pocket).

As of 2017

APPROXIMATE PER PERSON, IN 2017 DOLLARS, EXCLUDING LONG-TERM CARE (LTC)

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Retirement Income Sources

Social Security Personal Savings

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Annual Social Security Retirement Benefits

44%

38%

32% 28%

23% 20%

17% 15% 14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250

Ben

efits

as

Perc

ent o

f Pre

retir

emen

t Inc

ome

Ann

ual B

enef

its B

efor

e Ta

xes

Average Preretirement Income (thousands of 2017 dollars), Before Taxes

BY AVERAGE PRERETIREMENT INCOME

Dollars (left axis)

Percent (right axis)

2021 benefits calculated based on person reaching age 62 in 2017

Approximate amounts for an individual born in 1955 (age 62 in 2017) who retires in 2021 at full retirement age (FRA). Amounts will be adjusted for cost of living (and early/late retirement if not at full retirement age). Average income reflects the individual’s top 35 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. (Referred to by SSA as “indexing.”) Average could increase with more years of work.Source: TRP calculations based on information from ssa.gov.

Social Security

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Will My Portfolio Last as Long as I Do?

§ Rate of spending

§ Adaptability of spending

§ Longevity

§ Portfolio returns

§ Portfolio volatility

§ Tax implications

FACTORS TO CONSIDER

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7

Retirement Income Approaches

Guarantees are subject to the claims-paying ability of the insurance company and may be subject to limits in case of default.*Some products may include a death benefit in exchange for lower payouts.Source: T. Rowe Price

INSURANCE-BASED APPROACHES: GUARANTEED, BUT LIMITED LIQUIDITY AND FLEXIBILITY

NEED UPDATED SLIDE

Category Benefits Considerations

Immediate payout annuity Guaranteed income for lifeBuyers receive “mortality credits”Simplifies budgeting for fixed expenses

Ensuring a minimum lifetime income floor provides flexibility in managing your remaining assets

Irrevocable, illiquidCosts are opaqueLeaves nothing to heirs/beneficiaries*

Typically not adjusted for inflationMortality credits increase with age

Deferred payout annuity (longevity insurance)

Similar to the above, plus…Significantly lower upfront costFocuses on longevity “tail risk”

Same as above, plus…It may be years before any payments are received

Guaranteed living benefits (typically within a variable annuity)

Minimum monthly withdrawal amount for lifePossibility of “stepped up” withdrawalsRevocable, liquid

Balance at death goes to your beneficiariesSimplifies budgeting for fixed expenses

Higher costComplexExcess withdrawals reduce guaranteed amount

Fees are immediate and ongoing, but insurance benefit pays only after your account runs to zero

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Retirement Income Approaches

INVESTMENT-BASED APPROACHES: LIQUID AND FLEXIBLE, BUT UNCERTAIN

Category Benefits Considerations

Bond ladders (buy and hold to maturity)

Lower risk associated with investing in Treasury bondsPossible to craft a secure income stream tailored to your needs

Low rate of returnSome expertise requiredYou might outlive the last bond maturity

May be paired with longevity insurance

Managed-payout portfolios Professionals set and manage the payout rate and investment strategy for youTypically designed to manage the drawdown of capital in a prudent fashion

Payouts will depend on the product designPayouts might vary with investment performancePayouts might not suit your needs

No guarantees

Self-managed withdrawals This is the default if you don’t actively choose another approachVery flexible

Retirement income planning is complexMay be difficult to manage without an advisorNo guarantee of success

Approaches can be combined: mixing investments and insurance to suit your needs and preferences

NEED UPDATED SLIDEPersonal Savings

Liquidating assets may result in fees and other penalties.Source: T. Rowe Price

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Rate of Spending: The 4% Rule

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Year

$500,000

RetirementNest Egg

Assumes $500,000 initial investment, 4% first-year withdrawal, with subsequent years increased by annual inflation of 3%.

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Drawdowns: The 4% Rule and Managed Payouts

*This reflects a percentage of balance approach. Other managed payout strategies may differ.

§ Both approaches are helpful for gauging retirement readiness

§ Neither approach is intended to satisfy required minimum distributions

§ Neither approach should be considered a plan etched in stone—maintain flexibility

4% Rule Managed Payout*

Withdraw 4% of assets the first year, then adjust for inflation

Withdraw a set percentage of account each year (possibly above 4%)

Intended to keep up with inflation May not keep up with inflation

Spending does not depend on investment returns

Spending is directly dictated by investment returns

Absolute spending level is highest in the later years of retirement

Spending level may be higher in the early years of retirement

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Required Minimum Distributions

*Roth IRAs don’t require RMDs. Distributions that represent nondeductible IRA contribution amounts are also not included in taxable income.**If an investor is still working at age 70½, he may be able to delay his RMD for his current employer until after he retires. While the entire account (including the Roth contribution source) is subject to the RMD rules, the Rothportion is generally not taxable upon distribution.

Once IRA investors turn age 70½, they will need to take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from their IRAs, whether they need the money or not.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100

RMD SCHEDULE

Age

% o

f Ret

irem

ent A

ccou

nt

IRAS*

§ Traditional

§ Rollover

§ SEP

§ SIMPLE

EMPLOYER-SPONSORED RETIREMENT PLANS

§ 401(k)**

§ 403(b)

§ Governmental section 457 deferred compensation

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Sequence of Returns Risk

Fixed Annual Withdrawals of $35,000 With Alternating Returns of +16.5% and −2.5%

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Bal

ance

Year

Fixed Annual Withdrawals of $35,000 With Alternating Returns of +26% and −12%

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Bal

ance

Year

Fixed Annual Withdrawals of $40,000 With Alternating Returns of +16.5% and −2.5%

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Bal

ance

Year

Variable Annual Withdrawals Starting at $40,000 With Alternating Returns of +16.5% and −2.5%

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35B

alan

ceYear

Good/Bad Bad/Good

Withdrawals take place at the end of each year.Source: T. Rowe Price.

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20 years ended 12/31/2016

Asset Allocation: Risk vs. Reward

These hypothetical portfolios combine stocks and bonds to represent a range of potential risk/reward profiles. For each allocation model, historical data are shown to represent how the portfolios would have fared in the past. Figures include changes in principal value and reinvested dividends and assume the portfolios are rebalanced monthly. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.Charts are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific security or T. Rowe Price product.Sources: Analysis provided by T. Rowe Price using Zephyr StyleAdvisor. Returns used in the analysis supplied by Morningstar. Stocks, S&P 500 Index; bonds, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; cash, Citigroup 3-Month T-Bill.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Ann

ualiz

ed R

etur

n(%

per

yea

r)

Return Volatility Standard Deviation (% per year)

INCREASING RISK

INC

RE

AS

ING

RE

TU

RN

100% Bonds

20% Stocks80% Bonds

40% Stocks60% Bonds

60% Stocks40% Bonds

80% Stocks20% Bonds 100% Stocks

100% Cash

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These hypothetical portfolios combine stocks and bonds to represent a range of potential risk/reward profiles. For each allocation model, historical data are shown to represent how the portfolios would have fared in the past. Figures include changes in principal value and reinvested dividends and assume the portfolios are rebalanced monthly. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.Charts are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific security or T. Rowe Price product.Sources: Analysis provided by T. Rowe Price using Zephyr StyleAdvisor. Returns used in the analysis supplied by Morningstar. Stocks, S&P 500 Index; bonds, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; cash, Citigroup 3-Month T-Bill.

Asset Allocation: Risk vs. Reward

100% Bonds20% Stocks80% Bonds

40% Stocks60% Bonds

60% Stocks40% Bonds

80% Stocks20% Bonds

100% Stocks

Return for Best Year 11.6% 14.2% 18.9% 23.6% 28.5% 33.4%

Return for Worst Year -2.0% -4.6% -13.7% -22.1% -29.8% -37.0%

Average Annual Nominal Return 5.3% 6.0% 6.6% 7.0% 7.4% 7.7%

Number of Down Years 2 1 2 4 4 4

Average Loss (in Down Years) -1.4% -4.6% -8.5% -9.1% -14.7% -20.0%

20 years ended 12/31/2016

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Does Yield Matter?

§ Yield refers to the income return on your investments, such as from dividends and interest

§ Yield does not include capital gains or losses resulting from changes in securities prices

§ While it may seem counterintuitive, it generally makes no difference to sustainability whether withdrawals are sourced from investment income or capital gains*

§ Reaching for yield can be hazardous to your wealth if it leads to overly risky or under-diversified portfolios

*The distinction could be different for taxable accounts in jurisdictions where investment income is taxed differently than capital gains. Consult a financial advisor.

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16

Should I Use the "Bucket Strategy"?

WHAT IS THE STRATEGY?

1–3 years’ spending in cash

Intermediate bucket (bond-heavy)

Long-term bucket (stock-heavy)

Pros and cons

§ May promote smart behavior—avoid ill-timed asset sales

§ But can be hard to implement

Ultimately, the fundamentals are the same as a diversified portfolio

§ Have a sustainable asset allocation strategy

§ Be willing to adjust discretionary spending

§ “Buckets” of assets based on time horizon

§ Replenish buckets over time or opportunistically

1 2 3

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Tax Implications of Different Assets

Income tax on earnings Income tax on distribution or liquidation Tax treatment for heirs

TAX-ADVANTAGED ACCOUNTS

Pretax IRA or 401(k) Deferred Ordinary rateRMDs over life of beneficiary; ordinary rate

Roth IRA or 401(k) DeferredContributions tax-free; earnings tax-free if qualified1

RMDs over life of beneficiary; tax-free

TAXABLE ACCOUNTS

Appreciation None until liquidatedReturn of cost basis tax-free; gains at capital gains rates

Step-up in basis, so gains duringlife of original owner are tax-free2

Ordinary income generating (e.g., interest)

Ordinary rate Return of cost basis tax-free. While gains are not the focus, they are taxed at capital gains rates

While not the primary focus, these assets also receive step-up in basis; tax on subsequent earnings and gains remain the sameQualified dividend Qualified dividend rate

1 Owner over 59½, and Roth open at least five years.2 Note that individual and joint accounts have different rules regarding step-up.

Likely to benefit from lower capital gains and qualified dividend rates. Taxed at ordinary rates.Potentially tax-free.

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18

Asset Liquidation Strategies to Consider

Tax laws are subject to change. Consider consulting a financial advisor or tax professional.

1 Taxable 2 Tax-deferred 3 Tax-freeConventional wisdom sequence (for extending tax-preferred treatment)

If you expect to leave an estate:

§ Consider holding on to Roth assets and appreciated securities

§ But if your heirs will likely have a lower tax rate, leaving them pretax assets may make sense

However, your situation, asset mix, and estate plan should be considered

§ Consider earlier pretax distributions

§ Roth conversion could also make sense, especially in years with low taxable income

If RMDs could move you to a higher tax bracket:

Are you in a 10% or 15% tax bracket?

§ Take advantage of 0% on capital gains and qualified dividends

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Final Thoughts

DEVELOP AN ALLOCATION AND DRAWDOWN STRATEGY

§ Balance short-term volatility with long-term growth

§ Be flexible with your spending – which is most in your control

§ Consider how you might spend down your accounts depending on your objectives and circumstances

EVALUATE YOUR MIX OF EXPENSES AND INCOME SOURCES

§ Essential, healthcare, discretionary

§ Stack those up against your income sources

§ Decide if you might want to transfer some of your personal savings into any guaranteed income

Page 20: DEVELOPING YOUR RETIREMENT INCOME STRATEGY€¦ · Deferred payout annuity (longevity insurance) Similar to the above, plus… Significantly lower upfront cost Focuses on longevity

Individual investors:

1-800-541-6138

DEVELOPING YOUR RETIREMENT INCOME STRATEGY

If you have a workplace retirement account:

1-800-922-9945

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21

Important Information

All investments are subject to market risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

This material is being furnished for general informational purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give legal or tax advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, and prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial, and tax advice before making any investment decision. Any tax-related discussion contained in this material, including any attachments/links, is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding any tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing, or recommending to any other party any transaction or matter addressed herein. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation, or a solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

T. Rowe Price, Invest With Confidence, and the bighorn sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc.

C1J1CFX6J201709-266449

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