developing yield curves for forest management …€¦ · context • creation of the forestry...
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DEVELOPING YIELD CURVES FOR FOREST
MANAGEMENTPLANNINGMargaret Penner
Forest Analysis Ltd.
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Objective of Presentation
• Context• Objectives• Present results on validation• Current yield curve status• Future directions
2
Acknowledgements
OMNR3
$Tembec
LLT
42.112.9
3.1 22.2OMNR, Forest Co-op, Industry
Context• Creation of the Forestry Research
Partnership in 1999• Forest management planning yield curves
were developed in 1950s from temporary sample plots
• Large network of permanent sample plots• Creation of the Forest Ecosystem Science
Co-operative in 1997 and its Growth & Yield Science Unit in 1999
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Objective of Project• Provide statistically defensible yield
curves for analysis of wood supply• For the standard forest units• Compatible with forest management
planning software• Compatible with the inventory• Reflect silviculture intensity• Use all relevant permanent and temporary
plots5
…a strong bias toward parsimony among statistical analysts,
while specialists in the particular scientific field have a bias toward
ever-greater complexity.
Al Stage (2003)
Simple Model
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Sample sizes
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Bw LC LH MW Pj Po Pr Pw Sb Sw
Obs
erva
tions
Species
Plonski
Natural
Planted
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Bw LC LH MW Pj Po Pr Pw Sb Sw
Obs
erva
tions
Species
Plonski
Natural
Planted
Sample sizes
8
Sample sizes
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Sample Plots
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Defensible Gains
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PJ1 Forest Unit
050
100150200250300350400450
0 50 100 150Age
Mer
chan
tabl
e vo
lum
e (m
3 /ha)
Natural Planted
PR1
12
PR1
13
Site Index Curves
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 50 100 150
Top
heig
ht (m
)
Age
Carmean SC0Plonski SC0Carmean SC1Plonski SC1Carmean SC2Plonski SC2Carmean SC3Plonski SC3
It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is,
it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment,
it's wrong. Richard Feynman
physicist, Nobel laureate 1918-1988
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Yield Curve Status
-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
BW1 LC1 LH1 MW1 MW2 PJ1 PJ2 PO1 SB1 SF1 SP1
Forest unit
Gro
ss to
tal v
olum
e pr
edic
tion
erro
r(m
3/ha
)
Plonski Plonski modified FU Leading species 16
Yield Curve Status
-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
BW1 LC1 LH1 MW1 MW2 PJ1 PJ2 PO1 SB1 SF1 SP1
Forest unit
Gro
ss to
tal v
olum
e pr
edic
tion
erro
r(m
3/ha
)
Plonski Plonski modified FU Leading species 17
Yield Curve Status
-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
BW1 LC1 LH1 MW1 MW2 PJ1 PJ2 PO1 SB1 SF1 SP1
Forest unit
Gro
ss to
tal v
olum
e pr
edic
tion
erro
r(m
3/ha
)
Plonski Plonski modified FU Leading species 18
Yield Curve Status
-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
BW1 LC1 LH1 MW1 MW2 PJ1 PJ2 PO1 SB1 SF1 SP1
Forest unit
Gro
ss to
tal v
olum
e pr
edic
tion
erro
r(m
3/ha
)
Plonski Plonski modified FU Leading species 19
Precision
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Age (years)
Volu
me
(m3/
ha)
Most precise predictions
Less precisepredictions passed off to succession
Less precisepredictions project regeneration
Yield Curve Status• Clearcut systems
• Pure conifer • Conifer mixtures• Poplar, birch• Conifer hardwood mix
• Shelterwood systems• Pine• Tolerant hardwood• Yellow birch
Plantations• Pj• Sb• Sw• Pr• Pw
BA Growth Rates
•Hwd Selection
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Yield Curve Status• Forest Co-op sponsored
calibration for NW Ontario forest units.
• Abitibi• Bowater• Buchanan• Domtar• OMNR
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• Same functionality as Plonski• Expanded database
– More of the same species– New species– Plantations
• New stratification• Increased flexibility• Not the end of the road
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Yield Curve Status
Modeling Gaps
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Age (years)
Volu
me
(m3/
ha)
Explicit links to regeneration and succession
Modeling & Inventory Support Tool
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Row thinning
Thinning from below
Wide initial spacing
Modeling & Inventory Support Tool
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Our heads are round so that thoughts can change direction.
Francis Picabiapainter and poet
(1879-1953)
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FVSOntario
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Density Management Diagram
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Peter Newton (CFS) is working on a
new version
Thank youQuestions?
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