developing long-term homogenized climate data sets olivier mestre météo-france ecole nationale de...
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« State of fear » (Michael Crichton)TRANSCRIPT
Developing long-term homogenized climate Data sets
Olivier Mestre
Météo-France
Ecole Nationale de la MétéorologieUniversité Paul Sabatier, Toulouse
The introduction you ever dreamed of…
« State of fear » (Michael Crichton)
Homogenisation : why?Example of Pau temperature series
1912 : Lescar primary school 2007 : Pau-Uzein Airport
Pau: raw maximum temperatures (TX)
Homogenisation : a very old problem!
« Comptes-rendus de l’Académie Royale des Sciences » - 1703
Usual method: relative homogeneity
PRINCIPLE : removing the climatic signal to put into evidence artificial shifts in the series
minus
Tested series
Reference series
COMPARISON
series
Shifts detection
Dynamic programming algorithm + penalized likelihood Multiple comparisons of non-homogeneous series Metadata!
Shifts detection
Correction
ANOVA model : correction of multiple non-homogenous series, provided change-point positions are well known.
µiClimate factor
+Station factor
+Noise
j1j2
j3j4 j5
Correction
Climate signal estimation+
Bias estimation in the station effects (monthly scale)
Correction+reconstitution of missing data
Absolutely no assumption is made concerning the evolution of the climate
signal
Correction of Pau maximum temperatures
« Before » « After »
Maximum temperatures : 1901-2000 trends
« Before » « After »
Developments in Homogenisation
COST ACTION ES0601 : « Advances in HOmogenisation MEthods for climate series : an integrated approach » (HOME)
http://www.homogenisation.org
Daily data homogenisation : study of extreme events
Requirements in terms of data digitization
Fill the gaps and complete the target series as far as possible
Quality control and homogenisation techniques require complete neighbouring series :
digitize every data, not only target series!
Metadata, station histories are as important as data itself
Digitize metadata along with corresponding data!