developing emissions projections at a regional scale carlo trozzi, stefano crocetti, rita vaccaro,...

Developing emissions projections at a regional scale Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello

Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy) – carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com

30-31 October 2006, Thessaloniki, GreeceTFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections

Developing emissions projections at a regional scale

Carlo Trozzi, Stefano Crocetti, Rita Vaccaro, Enzo Piscitello

Techne Consulting srl -Via G. Ricci Curbastro 34, Roma (Italy)

carlo.trozzi@ techne-consulting.com

Emission Inventory

ProjectionFactors

Emissions Projection

System

Future Emission

s




Background in the last year new European Union (EU)

air quality directives have been introduced

the Directives requires Member States to divide their territory into zones related to air quality standards

the directives requires Member States to adopt plan and programs inside zones when air quality standards are not respected




Topics EU legislation and prescription for regional

plan and program for air quality management

methodologies and software used in regional and local level emissions projections

differences and synergies of national, regional and “zone” projection

detailed methodology case studies




EU air quality standards limit value, a level fixed with the aim of avoiding,

preventing or reducing harmful effects on human health and/or the environment as a whole

alert threshold, beyond which there is a risk to human health from brief exposure

margin of tolerance, the percentage of the limit value by which this value may be temporarily exceeded

upper (lower) assessment threshold, below which a combination of measurements and modeling techniques (modeling or objective-estimation techniques alone) may be used to assess air quality




EU legislation procedure Preliminary Air quality

assessment

Definition of zones and

agglomerations

Assessment of ambient air

quality requirements

Plan and

programs




Assessment of ambient air quality

Air quality assessme

ntEmission

Inventory & Models

Definition of zones and

agglomerations

Zones where levels are

below the lower assessment threshold

Measurement

Agglomerations (>250.000

inhabitants) and Zones

where levels exceed upper assessment threshold

Zones where levels are between lower and upper assessment

threshold




Plan and programs

plan or programme

attaining the limit value within the

specific time limit

higher than the limit

value plus the margin of tolerance

zones and agglomerations in which the levels of one or

more pollutants are:

below the limit values

maintain the levels of pollutants below the limit

values preserve the best ambient air quality, compatible with sustainable development




Regional, National & EC planning

National Plans

Regional Plans

Measures at national scale

Local effects of measures at EC or

national scale

Specific measures inside zones

Measures at EC scale




National vs Regionalgeneral

activity trend

main point sources trend

technologies trend & national measures

Specific measure on smaller point sources inside zones

Specific trend inside zones

Specific measures for lines and area inside zones

National

Regional Plans




Model

Emission Inventory

ProjectionDrivers

Scenario definition

in Emissions Projection

System

Future Emission

s

Area emissions

inside zones

Line emissions

inside zones

National point

sources emissions

Minor point

sources emissions




Projection drivers: activity aα = Vα

k / Vα0

Vα0 (V

αk) activity levels at base (at future) year

examples: population, gross domestic product agricultural production, waste production number of road vehicles, number of takeoff/landing tons of freight transported by road and sea specific reduction of miles in zone by traffic limitation specific reduction of miles in zone by fuel limitation specific modification of single Point and Line sources activities




Projection drivers: technology (EFs)

fβ = Vβk / V

β0

Vβ0 (V

βk) parameters which affect emission at

base year (at future year)examples: sulphur content of fuels new regulation limits on emissions from point sources and mobile sources solvent content of products (paints, inks, glues, etc.) application of Best Available Technologies – BATs at regional or single sources level application of Best Available Practices – BAPs at regional or single sources level




Scenarios definition activity scenarios defined associating to selected activities, specific activity drivers at regional, zone, line and units of point source level technology scenarios defined associating to selected activities and pollutants, specific technology drivers at regional, zone, line and units of point source levelemissions scenarios obtained as combination of activity, technology and point sources scenarios




Area emissionsEijkz = Eij0z a f a f+ Eijkz

Area emissions Eijkz of pollutant j at year k, in zone z, for the activity i are evaluated from

emissions at base year Eij0z and: driver for regional activity indicators

projection a driver for regional emission factors projection

f

driver for zone activity indicators projection a

driver for zone emission factors projection f

aditional emissions Eijkz for new absolute contribution (new activities in some zones)




Point emissionsEijkup = Eij0up a f a f+ Eijklup

Point sources emissions Eijkp of pollutant j at year k, of unit u of source p, for the activity i are

evaluated from emissions at base year Eij0p and: driver for regional activity indicators projection

a

driver for regional emission factors projection f driver for unit activity indicators projection a driver for unit emission factors projection f

aditional emissions Eijkup for new absolute contribution (new units, new plants)




Line emissionsEijkl = Eij0l a f a f+ Eijkl

Line emissions Eijkl of pollutant j at year k, on line l, for the activity i are evaluated from

emissions at base year Eij0l and: driver for regional activity indicators

projection a

driver for regional emission factors projection f

driver for line activity indicators projection a

driver for line emission factors projection f

additional emissions Eijkl for new lines (for examples new transport infrastructures)




PREM system

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 2000 2005 2010

year

ind

ex (

19

95

=1

00

)

Carbon M onoxide

Volatile OrganicCompounds

Nitrogen Oxides

Suspended particles<10 micron

Sulphur Oxides

Carbon Dioxide

PREM Emissions Projection System

(Visual basic language)

APEX DB Advanced Pollutants

Emissions Computer System Data Base

PREM DB Emissions Projection System

Data Base

Future EmissionsReports

Future Emissions

Maps

Future Emissions

Graphs




PREM Main menu




PREM Report menu




TrentoBolzano

Friuli-Venezia Giulia

Liguria

Sicilia

Campania

Toscana

Umbria

Basilicata

Regional case studies in Italy




Regional case study 1

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

CO CO2 VOC NOx PM10 SOx

Forest firesPortsHighway goods transport limitationCar PoolingVOC normative: area sourcesVOC normative: point sourcesPoint sources measuresDistrict heating + Energy savingEmissions after measures




Regional case study 2

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

1997 2002 2007 2012

Do nothing scenario Plan scenario Kyoto scenario Sustainable development scenario




Conclusion A specific methodology is required for

evaluate emissions reduction scenarios at zones level in the frame of EU air quality directive plan and program

The methodology is complementary to European and National level planning

A specific tool are developed for zone emission projection

Methodology and tool are used in regional planning in Italy in the last years

developing emissions projections at a regional scale carlo trozzi, stefano crocetti, rita vaccaro,...

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