deutsche bank brazil real estate week
TRANSCRIPT
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1
Deutsche Bank Real Estate Week February, 2014
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Introduction
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Focus on the Very Low Income (1/2)
2014*
470,000
2013
34,372
2012
23,234
2011
8,872
2010
7,391
Contracted MCMV Level 1- Track Record
(Units)
MCMV Level 1
For 2014, there are still
around 470,000 units
to be contracted in the
MCMV Level 1 to
achieve the program
goal.
Total Launched – Track Record
(PSV R$ million)
80%70%
36%36%19%
2,041
2013
2,565 +9%
CAGR:+35%
+24%
523
2012
2,345
1,647
698
2011
1,447
522
924
2010
1,067
380
686
2009
783
149
634
% Construction Service
Development
Construction Service
2% 9% 6% 5% Market Share
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Total Hired % Balance Concluded % %(A) (B) (C) (C/A) (C/B)
Level 1 2,000,000 1,527,379 76% 472,621 459,647 23% 30%
Level 2 1,200,000 1,294,889 100% - 935,370 78% 72%
Level 3 400,000 417,361 100% - 139,208 35% 33%
Total 3,600,000 3,239,629 472,621 1,534,225
Results MCMV (Phase 1 & 2) - Up - to Date
4
Focus on the Very Low Income (2/2)
Program Challenges ("Ministério das Cidades")
• Hire 470k units in 2014
• Quality assurance and delivery
• Investments on projects sustainability
• Improvements in the construction process
Level 1: Status
(Units)
100%
Delivered
459,647
23%
Contracted
1,527,379
76%
MCMV 1 & 2
2,000,000
Source : Ministério do Planejamento, Orçamento e Gestão 12/31/2013
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Cash Generation with Growth (1/2)
1 - Cash Burn: measured by the change in net debt adjusted for dividend payments and shares buyback
2 – Numbers prior to 2012 are not adjusted in accordance with the new consolidation accounting practices (IFRS 11).
9M13
31
2012
-156
2011
-176
2010
-283
2009
-95
Cash Burn¹,² - Anual
(R$ million)
Net Revenues - Track Record²
(R$ million)
+22%
CAGR +57%
9M13
1,306
9M12
1,073
2012
1,450
2011
1,072
2010
782
2009
378
3Q13
68
2Q13
-7
1Q13
-30
Cash Generation (Cash Burn)¹ - Quarterly Basis
(R$ million)
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Cash Generation with Growth (2/2)
1 - Numbers prior to 2012 are not adjusted in accordance with the new consolidation accounting practices (IFRS 11).
15
45%33%
24%14%
4%
9M13
598
2012
457
2011
269
2010
117
2009
Revenue from Services
% of Gross Revenue
Revenue from Services¹ – Track Record
(R$ million)
MCMV Level 1
83%
Development
17%
Breakdown of Deferred Results
(9M13)
Financing Pass-through (“Repasses”)
(R$ million)
+41%
+43%
9M13
455
217
238
9M12
319
170
150
3Q13
192
89
103
2Q13
153
71
82
1T13
110
57 53
4Q12
136
63
73
3Q12
136
79
56
2Q12
100
50 50
1Q12
83
40 43
"Associativo"
SFH 3Q13 2Q13 D
Accounts Receivable
from Service
BRL
million192 218 -26
Accounts Receivable
from Finished Units
BRL
million698 668 30
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Inventory
Sales and Cancellation (“Distratos”) - Development
(R$ million – PSV)
8%7%7%10%4%
27%20%
27%33%
26%
2013
231
2012
157
4Q13
75
3Q13
68
4Q12
49
Cancellation
% Cancellation over Sales - Development
% Cancellation over Sales - Total
Inventory Track Record
(R$ million)
-9%
2013
725
571
154
2012
800
670
130
Under Construction Finished Units
2013 Launches and Sales - Development
(R$ million)
Deliveries and Launches - Development Segment
(R$ million)
698523
686787
+188%
-24%
2013
839
2012
828
2011
305
2010
291
Launches Deliveries
-14%
Launches
523
Net Sales
610
Cancellations
231
Sales
841
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Main Figures
D %
Launched PSV 2013 x 2012% Direcional
R$ million 2,565 2,346 9%
Contracted PSV 2013 x 2012% Direcional
R$ million 2,652 2,267 17%
Gross Revenue 9M13 x 9M12% Direcional
R$ million 1,340 1,057 27%
Cash Generation 9M13 x 9M12 R$ million 31 -163 n.a
ROE LTM¹ 9M13 x 9M12 % 17.6% 16.9% 0.7 p.p.
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History and Business Model
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More Than 30 Years of History
47%
Filadélphia
Participações S.A.1 Others
53%
155,298,749 ordinary shares
1. Holding owned by Ricardo Valadares Gontijo and family
2. Data: 06/30/2013
Industrial projects acting
as contractor to third
parties
Important geographic
expansion: Brasília, Rio
de Janeiro and
Campinas
Development of projects
focused on the low-
income segment
Beginning of large scale
projects for the low-
income segment
Consolidation of a
leading position in
Manaus and Brasilia
Operations expansion to
PA, RO and ES
IPO 36% annual
growth in PSV
launched (CAGR)
69% annual
growth in net
revenue (CAGR)
Follow-on
MCMV 2
Establishment of
own sales team
1981 - 2005 2006-2007 2008 2009 2010-2011 2012
Record net
revenue of R$ 1.4
Billion, a 28%
YoY growth
More than
R$ 1 billion on
projects
delivered during
2012
Increasing stock
liquidity
The most relevant
player in the
MCMV 2nd phase
Level 1
Focus on Cash
Generation and
Construction
Service business
2013
Latin American
Asia 13.8%
North American
4.1%
Europe
15.8%
Brazil
17.2%
49.1%
Free Floating ( others 53%)2
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Unique Footprint Strong footprint in markets with high growth potential, low
competition and high barriers to entry Low competition in
profitable markets
Track Record in
Operating in the low-
Income segment
Over 30 years of experience
Solid track record in MCMV Level 1 projects
Low equity commitment,
solid margins and high
ROIC
Focus on Large
Scale Projects
Verticalized
Business Model
Strong expertise in large scale ventures
Own work force
Performance-based compensation
Standardized and industrialized production on-site
Large scale operations in
the low-income
segments, with strict
cost control and high
margins
11
Direcional: A Unique Business Model
The most profitable
and efficient player in
the low-income
sector
‘’’’
High efficiency and profitability
ROE¹ among the highest in the sector LTM ROE¹: 18%
1. LTM ROE: Net Income in the Last Twelve Months / Average Shareholders’ Equity in the Last Twelve Months (net of non-controlling interest in silent partnerships and SPEs)
The best low-income player in Brazil
Industrialization Aluminum panels and concrete walls technology
45 days to develop a five floors building
1
2
3
5
4
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Focus on the Low-Income Segment
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Launched - Construction Service
(PSV R$ million)
CAGR -6%
2013
523
2012
698
2011
924
2010
686
2009
634
2008
710
Launched - Development
(PSV R$ million)
0
CAGR +92%
2013
2,041
2012
1,647
2011
522
2010
380
2009
149
2008
Construction Service Development
MCMV Level 1
+ Little or no cash burn
+ Higher ROE
+ Lower risk
+ Non-cyclical market
- Lower Margin
Development
- Higher cash burn
- Lower ROE
- Higher risk
- Cyclical market
+ Higher Margin
Total Launched – Track Record
(PSV R$ million)
80%70%
36%
19%
0%
523
2013
2,565
1,447 2,041
2012
2,345
698
1,647
2011
36%
924
522
2010
1,067
686
380
2009
783
634
149
2008
710
710
% Construction Service
Development
Construction Service
The Growth Coming From The Construction Service (MCMV Level 1)
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Land
acquisition Comercial
launch End of
construction
14
MCMV Level 1 vs Development: Net FCF with no Sales Cancellations
Source: Bradesco BBI
Cash flow (traditional project vs MCMV Level 1 project)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
10Q 9Q 8Q 7Q 6Q 5Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 0Q -1Q -2Q -3Q -4Q
Traditional Development
MCMV Level 1
Traditional Project Construction
MCMV Level 1 Project Construction
Hired to
• 100% of units sold to the Federal Government: No delinquency and sales cancelations from this segment, benefiting
consolidated figures
Cash Exposure
MCMV Level 1
Development
• The Fist range of MCMV implies almost no working capital needs.
R$mn - 2Q13* Brookfield Cyrela Direcional Helbor Eztec Even Tecnisa MRV PDG Rossi Gafisa***
Net sales (co's stake) 495 1.470 642 265 363 366 310 1.388 276 268 339
Gross Sales 656 1.670 710 294 413 406 441 1.683 813 433 545
Sales cancellation 161 200** 68 29** 50** 41** 131 295 537 165 207
as % of sales 24,5% 12,0% 9,6% 10,0% 12,0% 10,0% 29,7% 17,5% 66,1% 38,1% 37,9%
Net revenue 694 1.372 451 454 276 567 436 1.072 1.071 506 628
cancellation as % of revenue 23,1% 14,6% 15,1% 6,5% 18,0% 7,2% 30,0% 27,5% 50,1% 32,6% 32,9%
*3Q when available ** Estimate *** Only Gafisa and Tenda
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Lauch Date Jul/2011 Aug/2012
Level 1 R$48 k - R$65 k R$57 k - R$76 k 17%
Level 2 and 3 R$65 k - R$170 k R$76 k - R$190 k 12%
MCMV 2MCMV 2
(after review)Unit Price D%
15
MCMV Focus Moving Towards Level 1 (1/2)
• Brazil’s Federal Government has already shown that its focusing the Level 1 of MCMV, where the BZ housing deficit is heavily
concentrated.
• Such focus is clear when looking the breakdown of the Level 1 from MCMV 1 compared to MCVM 2 and its subsequent update.
2,600,000
+300%
MCMV2
1,600,000
800,000
200,000
MCMV1
1,000,000
400,000
400,000
200,000
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
The Government increased the price cap of 17% for
the units within the first level of the MCMV Program.
4x
2x
1x
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Total Hired % Balance Concluded % %(A) (B) (C) (C/A) (C/B)
Level 1 2,000,000 1,527,379 76% 472,621 459,647 23% 30%
Level 2 1,200,000 1,294,889 100% - 935,370 78% 72%
Level 3 400,000 417,361 100% - 139,208 35% 33%
Total 3,600,000 3,239,629 472,621 1,534,225
Results MCMV (Phase 1 & 2) - Up - to Date
16
MCMV Focus Moving Towards Level 1 (2/2)
Program Challenges ("Ministério das Cidades")
• Hire 470k units in 2014
• Quality assurance and delivery
• Investments on projects sustainability
• Improvements in the construction process
Level 1: Status
(Units)
100%
Delivered
459,647
23%
Contracted
1,527,379
76%
MCMV 1 & 2
2,000,000
Source : Ministério do Planejamento, Orçamento e Gestão 12/31/2013
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MCMV: Risk of Discontinuation?
Incentives Expiring Date Renew Chance
MCMV 2 December 14 High
RET 1 (tax relief) December 14 High
RET 4 (tax relief) -
Payroll Tax Relief December 14 Mid
• MCMV is the most important federal housing program.
• Main ongoing federal government supports over housing segment:
• Brazilian social programs should continue to be relevant irrespective of which main political party holds power.
• One of the leaders in hiring of workers in Brazil from 2005 until 2011 (cumulative employment since 2005):
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
Dec-0
5
Mar-
06
Jun-0
6
Sep
-06
Dec-0
6
Mar-
07
Jun-0
7
Sep
-07
Dec-0
7
Mar-
08
Jun-0
8
Sep
-08
Dec-0
8
Mar-
09
Jun-0
9
Sep
-09
Dec-0
9
Mar-
10
Jun-1
0
Sep
-10
Dec-1
0
Mar-
11
Jun-1
1
Sep
-11
Dec-1
1
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep
-12
Dec-1
2
Mar-
13
Construction Total ex-construction
Source : IBGE
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Level 1 Contracted Units Direcional Share %
MCMV 1 & 2 1,527,379 73,869 5%
MCMV 1 482,741 7,391 2%
MCMV 2 1,044,638 66,478 6%
18
MCMV: Risk of Discontinuation?
Even considering a potential reduction in the MCMV Level 1 program with a change in political parties, there should be little effect on Direcional.
There are few companies that can deliver high volumes of construction in MCMV Level 1:
MCMV 1: 23% of units launched in MCMV Level 1 were delivered
100% 76%
23%
78%
35% 100%
100%
100%
100%
Delivered Contracted Program
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
MCMV Program Phase 1 & 2: Status
(% of Units)
Low Share: Direcional represents 5% of MCMV Level 1 as a whole
Opportunity to increase its share
+400 bps
Source : Ministério do Planejamento, Orçamento e Gestão 07/15/2013
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Very Low Income Projects:
# of projects: 32
# of Units: 73,869
Total PSV: R$ 4,591.2 MM
Average PSV: R$ 143.5 MM
Average Units: 2,308
19
Direcional’s Contracted MCMV Level 1
1st Phase MCMV 2nd Phase MCMV
# of projects: 3
# of Units: 7,391
Total PSV: R$ 380.3 million
# of projects: 29
# of Units: 66,478
Total PSV: R$ 4,211.72MM
+
Direcional`s Contracted MCMV – Level 1
(PSV million)
Direcional`s Contracted MCMV – Level 1
(Units)
+437%
2013
2,041
2012
1,647
2011
522
2010
380
2013
34,372
2012
23,234
2011
8,872
2010
7,391
+365%
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Focus on Industrialization
20
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Focus on Performance
6% 5% 5%16%
78% 84%
3Q13 1Q13
75%
18% 7%
4Q12
70%
23%
7%
3Q12
60%
31%
9%
2Q12
56%
36%
9%
1Q12
50%
41%
8%
4Q11
49%
43%
4Q13
7%
3Q11
45%
49%
7% 11%
2Q13
85%
10%
Units Under Construction by Construction Method
(% of Units)
1 Aluminum mold and concrete walls method
Concrete Blocks Conventional Structure (Concrete Pillars) Industrial Construction¹
4Q13 4Q12 D %
Units Under Construction 73.692 50.893 45%
% of Industrialization (# of units) 85% 70% 15 p.p.
Construction Sites 59 45 31,1%
Average # of Units by Construction Sites 1.249 1.131 10%
# of Cities 17 13 31%
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Construction Technology
45 days to develop 2 buildings with 5 floors and 4 apartments per floor
Video: http://www.direcional.com.br/ri
Aluminum Panels and Concrete Walls
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Operating and Financial Highlights
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Launches
24
Launches by Segment
(% PSV)
Launches by Region
(% PSV)
50%
23% 31%44%
2013
32%
33%
4%
2012
26%
46%
5%
4Q13
39%
3%
8%
4Q12
56%
Southeast North Northeast Midwest
4%
7%
2013
80%
8% 11%
1%
2012
70%
2% 3%
14%
4Q13
79%
21%
4Q12
83%
17%
Upper-Middle Low-Income
RET1
MCMV Level 1
Commercial Medium
Launched PSV
(R$ million)
919
730
189
1,189
4Q12
276
780
504
3Q13
+9%
-23%
+18%
2013
2,565
2,041
523
2012
2,346
1,647
698
4Q13
988
201
MCMV Level 1
Development
AP
MG
RJ
GO
CE
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Sales
21%15%
21%15%15%
55%
47%50%
41%
55%
4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12
With MCMV Level 1 project
Without MCMV Level 1 project
Sales by Period of Launching – 2013
(% PSV – Ex-MCMV Level 1)
2013 53%
2012
25%
<2012
22%
Contracted PSV
(R$ million)
Sales-over-supply (SoS)
(% Total PSV)
Record sales in 3Q13; SoS of 47%.
-17%
+46%
2013
2,652
2,041
610
2012
2,267
1,647
620
4Q13
+17%
937
730
207
3Q13
642
504 138
4Q12
1,129
988
141
MCMV Level 1
Development
20%17%25%
17%16%
84%79%79%
74%82%
4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12
Without MCMV Level 1 project
With MCMV Level 1 project
Sales-over-supply (SoS)
(% Units)
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Inventory
2013
20%
2012
30%
2011
21%
2010 7%
<2010 1%
Finished Units
21%
Midweast 18%
North 51%
Southeast 31%
-9%
2013
725
571
154
2012
800
670
130
Under Construction
Finished Units
Inventory by Region
(% PSV)
Inventory by Launch Period
(% PSV)
Inventory Track Record
(R$ million)
Midweast 18%
North 38%
Southeast 44%
4Q12 4Q13
Reduction of 9% in total inventory in 2013 Geographical diversification of the inventory.
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Land Bank
73% are large scale projects (over 1,000 units)
69% are eligible for the MCMV Program
80% were acquired by physical or financial Swap
Average acquisition price of 10% over PSV
R$ 7.4 Billion
60.126 units
Land Bank by Segment
(% PSV)
Land Bank Track Record in 2013
(R$ million in PSV) 171
2013
7,395
Launches
523
Review of
Assumptions
/ Traded and
Cancellation
Acquired
Land Bank
1,356
2012
6,734
Land Bank by Region
(% PSV)
Type of Payment
(2013 – % PSV)
Swap 90.4% Cash 9.6%
RET
2%
Low-Income 37%
Upper-Middle
7%
Medium
50%
Commercial
4%
ES2%
AM9%
MG32%
RO1%
SP6%
PA7%
DF29%
GO2%
RJ12%
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Cash Generation with Growth (1/2)
1 - Cash Burn: measured by the change in net debt adjusted for dividend payments and shares buyback
2 – Numbers prior to 2012 are not adjusted in accordance with the new consolidation accounting practices (IFRS 11).
9M13
31
2012
-156
2011
-176
2010
-283
2009
-95
Cash Burn¹² - Anual
(R$ million)
Net Revenues - Track Record²
(R$ million)
+22%
CAGR +57%
9M13
1,306
9M12
1,073
2012
1,450
2011
1,072
2010
782
2009
378
3Q13
68
2Q13
-7
1Q13
-30
Cash Generation (Cash Burn)¹ - Quarterly Basis
(R$ million)
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Cash Generation with Growth (2/2)
1 - Numbers prior to 2012 are not adjusted in accordance with the new consolidation accounting practices (IFRS 11).
15
45%33%
24%14%
4%
9M13
598
2012
457
2011
269
2010
117
2009
Revenue from Services
% of Gross Revenue
Revenue from Services¹ – Track Record
(R$ million)
MCMV Level 1
83%
Development
17%
Breakdown of Deferred Results
(9M13)
Financing Pass-through (“Repasses”)
(R$ million)
+41%
+43%
9M13
455
217
238
9M12
319
170
150
3Q13
192
89
103
2Q13
153
71
82
1T13
110
57 53
4Q12
136
63
73
3Q12
136
79
56
2Q12
100
50 50
1Q12
83
40 43
"Associativo"
SFH 3Q13 2Q13 D
Accounts Receivable
from Service
BRL
million192 218 -26
Accounts Receivable
from Finished Units
BRL
million698 668 30
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30
Cancellation
18% Southeast
North 65%
Midweast
17%
Cancellation by Region - 9M13
(% Contracted PSV )
Sales and Cancellation (“Distratos”) - Development
(R$ million – PSV)
8%
9%
10%9%6%
28%
18%
33%29%
19%
9M13
156
9M12
108
3Q13
68
2Q13
57
3Q12
38
Cancellation
% Cancellation over Sales - Development
% Cancellation over Sales - Total
Adjusted Gross Margin¹(%)
1. Adjustment excluding capitalized interest for production financing
27%
24%
29%
3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 Midweast 18%
North 51%
Southeast 31%
Inventory by Region
(% PSV)
Midweast 18%
North 40%
Southeast 43%
4Q12 3Q13
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Revenue by Segment
+21%
+16%
-3%
9M13
1,340
9M12
1,109
3Q13
465
2Q13
478
3Q12
402
Gross Revenue
(R$ million)
Adjusted¹ Gross Profit and Gross Margin
(R$ million)
37
30.7%
3Q13
122
111
11
27.0%
2Q13
344
97
14
23.7%
3Q12
118
105
14
30.3%
+4%
+10%
+3%
9M13
305
39
26.4%
9M12
330
293 111
Gross Profit
Interest capitalized in costs
Adjusted Gross Margin¹
Net Income
(R$ million)
2Q13
61
13.1%
3Q12
55
14.0%
+17%
+2%
+14%
9M13
178
13.6%
9M12
152
14.2%
3Q13
62
13.8%
Net Margin
242 326598
206125
+84%
+65% -15%
9M13 9M12 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12
Gross Revenue – MCMV Level 1
(R$ million)
-5%
-7%
+10%
9M13
741
9M12
783
3Q13
259
2Q13
236
3Q12
277
Gross Revenue –Development
(R$ million)
1. Adjustment excluding capitalized interest for production financing
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32
ROE’s Sustainable Growth
Net Income and Annualized ROE ¹
(R$ million)
178
152
626155
+17%+16%
+17%+17%+17%
+17%
+2%
+13%
9M13 9M12 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12
Net Income
Annualized ROE¹
1- Annualized ROE: Annualized Adjusted Net Income for the quarter / Average Shareholders’ Equity for the period
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Capital Structure
(R$ million)
22%
Debentures
CRI 7%
Working Capital 2%
FINAME and Leasing 4%
SFH
65%
Loans and Financing – 3Q13
(% of Debt)
945
4Q12
450
793
3Q13
519
913
2Q13
500
Cash
Gross Debt 343
Net Debt
22% 28% 24%
Net Debt / Shareholder's
Equity
33
445 394
Capital Structure
Net Debt
Without SFH
-197
Net Debt
394
Cash and
Cash
Equivalent
519
Debt
913
SFH
591
322
Debt
(R$ million)
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Improvement on DIRR3 Float
Number of Investors
(#)
+80%
1,683
Dez.13
594
1,089
Dec.12
933
480
453
Sep.12
652
283
369
Jun.12
531
214
317
Mar.12
533
217
316
Investment Funds
Personal Investors
+216%
2013
9,208
2012
2,917
2011
945
2010
151
Average Trading Volume
(# of Transactions)
Average Trading Volume
(R$ 000)
274133
17
+558%
2013
1,805
2012 2011 2010
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BISA3; -24%
CYRE3; 14%
EVEN3; 17%
EZTC3; 29%
GFSA3; -2%
HBOR3; 29%MRVE3; 14%
PDGR3; -9%
DIRR3 18%
RDNI3; 7%
RSID3; 8%
TCSA3; 21%
TRIS3; 6%
SECTOR; 6%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Net
Rev
enu
e/T
ota
l Ass
ets
Net Margin¹
Slow turnover and margin above averageSlow turnover and margin below average
Fast turnover and margin below average Fast turnover and margin above average
Company; ROESize: Leverage (Assets/Equity)
Color: Average Prince - Launched Units Last 24 months
Low - up to R$ 200k per unit
Medium - between R$ 200k and R$ 400k per unit
High - above R$ 400k per unit
Sector
1. Direcional: Adjusted for non-cash expenses (Stock-Options Program)
35
Outstanding Results
18%
Source: Company Earning Release 2Q13 Annualized
(As of 2Q13)
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Appendix
36
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37
Construction Inflation (INCC) Track Record
Brazilian construction cost index, base 100 = Jan/2003
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
jan/03 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 jan/11 jan/12 jan/13
Labor
INCC
(Aggregated Index)
Materials
Source: BACEN and IBGE
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38
Brasilian Mortgage Track Record
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39
Contacts
Carlos Wollenweber CFO | IR Officer
Paulo Sousa IR Analyst
Luiz Felipe Almeida IR Analyst
www.direcional.com.br
(55 31) 3214-6200
(55 31) 3214-6450