FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

ISSUER COMMENT29 July 2020

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Deutsche Bank AGQ2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offsetcoronavirus disruption

In Q2 2020, Deutsche Bank AG (DB, A3/A3, negative, ba11) reported a net profit of €58million, following a net loss of €3.2 billion one year ago2. This positive result compares wellwith trends seen elsewhere in the industry and underscores DB's continued progress followingits strategic repositioning, helping it to withstand the various impacts of the coronavirus-drivenshock. The net profit was supported by an 11% positive operating leverage at group level,allowing DB to put away €761 million of additional loan loss charges and €289 million oflitigation and regulatory costs, as well as €280 million of restructuring and transformationcharges in the quarter3.

Strong Investment Bank and Asset Management boost revenue as costs remain wellcontained. DB reported total group revenues of €6.3 billion4 in Q2 2020, up 3% year-over-year and more than offsetting the negative effects of the persistently ultra-low interest-rate environment and recent business perimeter changes. At the same time, adjusted costs5

declined 8% to €4.9 billion, reaping the benefits of DB's 2019 cost reduction measures andcontinued cost containment in 2020. In particular, the Investment Bank's (IB) revenue increased52%6, driven by a strong fixed income and origination result. Asset Management also reporteda 6% sequential improvement in revenue, driven by a recovery in market values and relatedfees during Q2 2020. All 'Core Bank' segments were profitable, supporting an 11% growth inDB’s 'Core Bank' adjusted pretax profit year-over-year to €935 million7.

Capital and leverage improve sequentially. DB reported a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1)capital ratio of 13.3% for the quarter, up from 12.8% in Q1 2020 and virtually flat year-over-year. The firm’s fully-loaded leverage ratio improved 20 basis points (bps) sequentially and 30bps year-over-year to 4.2%. The improvement was largely owing to lower credit assets as aresult of higher repayments on credit facilities provided to clients during the coronavirus shockin March and April this year, and was also driven by lower derivative volumes. During 2020, weexpect the CET1 ratio to stay above the 12.5% guidance level, although we anticipate DB willbe unlikely to meet its 4.5% leverage ratio target for this year. During Q2 2020, risk-weightedassets (RWAs) declined 5% year-over-year and 3% sequentially to €331 billion (Q2 2019: €347billion; Q1 2020: €341 billion), whilst leverage exposures stood at €1,192 million (Q2 2019:€1,304 million; Q1 2020: €1,248 million).

Liquidity metrics improved, driven by lower lending volumes and continued depositgrowth. DB reported an excess of €64 billion over its requirements stipulated by the LiquidityCoverage Ratio (LCR), which stood at 144% as of the end of June 2020 (Q2 2019: 147%). Thebank's total liquidity reserves stood at €232 billion as of the same date, providing a sequentiallyimproved and sufficient leeway to navigate through the current environment.

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Detailed considerationsDB maintained - and sequentially improved - its CET1 capital ratioDB saw its CET1 risk-based capital ratios improve sequentially during the quarter (Exhibit 1). Crisis-response programs beingimplemented by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury, as well as the European Central Bank (ECB), among others, are helping containthe economic fallout and will collectively reduce, although not fully offset, risks to DB and other financial institutions' capital metrics.

Exhibit 1

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio and Tier 1 Leverage Ratio for Global Investment Banks, as of 30 June 2020

16.1%14.6% 14.2%

13.3% 13.3% 13.1% 12.7% 12.4% 12.1% 12.0%

11.7% 11.5% 11.4%

7.3%

5.3%5.2%

5.5%

4.2%

6.8%

4.2%

6.7%

5.3%

3.9%4.5%

6.7%7.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%

18.0%

baa2 a2 baa2 a3 ba1 a2 baa2 baa1 baa2 baa1 a3 baa1 a3

MS HSBC BCS** UBS* DB JPM SG GS CS* BNP RBC CITI BAC

CET1 ratio Tier 1 Leverage ratio Median CET1 ratio (12.7%) Median leverage ratio (5.3%)

(1) As of Q1 2020 for BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse Group AG, HSBC Holdings plc and Société Générale. Q2 2020 for the rest; (2) Basel III fully phased in advanced approach for all US banks;(3) Tier 1 leverage ratio for US banks is the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR).*UBS and CS leverage ratio reflect Common Equity Tier plus Low Trigger Additional Tier 1 and High-Trigger Additional Tier 1 securities. For the computation of the leverage ratio, the Swissregulator allowed for a temporary exclusion of cash held at central banks until 1 January 2021. The ratios shown here do not include this benefit.**BCS leverage is reflective of the spot UK leverage ratio.Source: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service

However, should economic conditions not improve toward the end of 2020 and into 2021, the shock to DB’s and its peers’ profitability andoverall creditworthiness would likely be more pronounced. Supported by better-than-anticipated underlying profitability in its 'Core Bank',as well as by its higher-than-anticipated CET1 ratio, we believe DB is entering and likely passing through this period from an improvedposition following the restructuring measures initiated in the summer of 2019.

DB will also not pay a dividend for this year and the next, and will also not buy back any of its own shares, further safeguardingits capital position well above the ECB's current Pillar 2 regulatory requirement of 10.4%8. Moreover, being domiciled in Germanycould prove supportive to the bank's risk profile, since Germany has launched the largest support program in Europe9 to safeguardits economy from the coronavirus-related shocks. Also, corporate and household debt in Germany are at low levels relative to otherEuropean countries, and stood at 59% and 54% of GDP, respectively, as of the end of 2019. This provides DB's most importantcustomers with additional leeway to cope with the crisis without immediately becoming overly indebted, safeguarding DB's assetperformance.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 29 July 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Q2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offset coronavirus disruption

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Credit loss expenses rise, but DB's diversified loan book helps shield the bank from undue lossesDB booked loan loss charges of €761 million in the quarter, equivalent to an annualized 69 bps of loans, up from €161 million in Q2 2019(15 bps). Cost of risk therefore stood above the guidance range of 35-45 bps of loans for the full year. However, we believe the secondquarter to mark the peak in loan loss charges for this year, and expect those to be more moderate in the coming two quarters. As of 30June 2020, DB has built €5.0 billion in allowance for potential loan losses, which we consider adequate in relation to its diversified andrelatively highly collateralized loan book; and we consider reserve levels to be broadly in-line with its peers.

Exhibit 2

Higher loan loss provisions continue to take toll on profitabilityRestructuring expected to benefit earnings potential over time

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

EU

R m

illio

n

Pretax earnings Provisions for credit losses

Source: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service

Segmental results commentaryUnless indicated otherwise, figures displayed below are on a DB reported basis and comparisons are made versus Q2 2019.

Exhibit 3

Core profitability improves further despite meaningfully higher loan losses and other chargesAdjusted quarterly pretax profits by business line (excluding litigation, impairments, DVA and one-offs), EUR million

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Corporate Bank Investment Bank Private Bank Asset Management Consolidation & Adjustments Capital Release Unit Total PTE

Source: Company reports, Moody's Investors Service

3 29 July 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Q2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offset coronavirus disruption

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The Corporate Bank reported a pretax income of €77 million compared with a pretax loss of €277 million during the same period last year.Revenues of €1.3 billion were up 3% year-over-year, benefitting from some credit loss recoveries and portfolio optimization effects withinGlobal Transaction Banking (GTB). Excluding these items, continued interest rate headwinds more than offset repricing efforts and balancesheet initiatives. GTB revenues were up 4% reflecting the aforementioned drivers, although cash management and securities services andtrust agency services revenues were lower, mainly owing to the lower interest-rate environment in the US. Commercial banking revenueswere flat as volume and fee income growth were offset by interest rate headwinds. The results also reflect higher loan loss charges of €145million in the quarter (+136% versus Q2 2019) driven by a small number of specific names and an updated macroeconomic outlook inrelation to the coronavirus pandemic. Adjusted costs excluding transformation charges were flat as cost initiatives were offset by higherservice costs allocations.

The Investment Bank reported a pretax income of €956 million compared with €218 million during the same period last year, drivenby very strong positive operating leverage of 58%. Revenues increased 46% year-over-year to €2.7 billion (+52% excluding specificitems), reflecting meaningfully higher fixed income sales and trading revenue (+39% and +46% excluding specific items) and strongdebt (+92%) and equity origination (+184%) revenue offsetting expectedly weaker advisory revenues (-42%). Adjusted costs - excludingtransformation charges - declined by 7% (down 14% reported) driven by headcount reductions in 2019 and lower service cost allocations.Excluding financing revenue and specific items, DB managed to almost meet the very strong performance of some of its US peers infixed income sales and trading (+75% versus US peers' average of +109%), and meaningfully outperformed its peers in debt and equityorigination, increasing its market share.

The Private Bank reported a pretax loss of €241 million in the quarter (€80 million adjusted pretax loss; Q2 2019: pretax loss of €311million), negatively affected by higher loan loss charges (+115%) and ongoing restructuring costs. Revenues declined 5%, largely driven byongoing deposit margin compression; the negative effects of the coronavirus-driven lock-down particularly affecting DB's internationalbusiness; and various one-off items. The reported 15% decline in operating expenses in the quarter (down 5% adjusted) largely reflectedthe absence of impairment charges, while general and administrative expenses increased 10%. Provisions for credit losses increased to€225 million (Q2 2019: €62 million) or 39 basis points of loans, negatively affected by macro-economic updates in relation to thecoronavirus pandemic.

Asset Management reported a strong pretax profit of €114 million (€132 million adjusted) compared to €89 million for the same periodlast year. Revenues declined 8% to €549 million (and improved 6% sequentially), driven by continued low performance fees (€20 million)and lower management fees (€508 million, -6%). Assets under management increased 3% to €745 billion driven by positive marketperformance and €9 billion of net inflows.

The Capital Release Unit (CRU), DB's non-core wind-down segment, reported negative revenue of -€70 million, following a positive€221 million in the prior-year quarter. Albeit at a slower pace, the downsizing of the segment continued during Q2 2020, in particular withregard to deleveraging (leverage exposures declined to €101 billion, from €249 billion in Q2 2019). Risk-weighted assets declined 34% to€42.6 billion, including an unchanged €26 billion of operational risk-weighted assets. Further reducing the revenue and the profitabilitydrag of the CRU - supporting fast and steady progress in achieving the new goals and repositioning DB’s business model - continues tobe important to maintaining DB's credit strength.

Rating ConsiderationsDeutsche Bank has a BCA of ba1 and is rated A3 for deposits, A3 for senior unsecured debt, Baa3 for junior senior unsecured debt andis assigned a Counterparty Risk Assessment of A3(cr)/P-2(cr) and Counterparty Risk Ratings of A3/P-2. The outlook on its deposit andsenior unsecured ratings is negative.

4 29 July 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Q2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offset coronavirus disruption

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Moody's Related ResearchCredit Opinion

» Deutsche Bank AG, May 2020

Issuer In-Depth Reports

» Deutsche Bank AG: Sweeping revamp of business model will be credit positive when and if achieved

» Scenario analysis: Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG

» Cleaner balance sheet buys time to execute deep reengineering

Issuer Comments

» Restructuring progress supports DB's asset performance

» Q1 2020: Restructuring progress benefits DB's credit profile, despite coronavirus reserve builds

» Continued strong execution and client retention will help support DB's credit profile

» CEO change highlights strategic challenges still confronting Deutsche Bank

Latest Rating Action

» Moody's affirms Deutsche Bank AG's ratings, maintains negative outlook, July 2019

Sector In-Depth Report (Global Investment Banks Peer Group)

» Global Investment Banks - US: Q2 2020 Update - Peer group preserves capital strength, absorbs heavy credit provisions in earnings,July 2020

» , June 2020

» , May 2020

» Global Investment banks: Estimated profit hit in coronavirus shock scenario should not take toll on capital, April 2020

» Fintech: GIBs can keep pace with fintechs, but retail banking is most at risk of a digital divide, February 2020

» Global Investment Banks - 2020 Outlook, January 2020

» Sector stratification will relegate some from top flight of capital markets competition, September 2019

» Global Investment Banks - GIBs generally prepared for stress in leveraged lending; degree of impact varies, May 2019

Rating Methodology

» Banks Methodology, November 2019

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of thisreport and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients.

5 29 July 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Q2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offset coronavirus disruption

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Endnotes1 The ratings shown in this report are DB’s deposit rating/senior unsecured debt rating, outlook, and Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA).

2 All figures in this report relate to Q2 2020 and comparisons are made to Q2 2019, unless otherwise indicated

3 In 2019 and Q1 2020, DB booked €5.6 billion and €172 million of restructuring- and transformation-related charges, respectively. Total charges and effectsare expected to accumulate to €8.0 billion until 2022

4 Excluding specific items as per DB definition.

5 As per DB definition.

6 All segment figures here exclude specific items.

7 Adjusted as per DB disclosures.

8 This has been lowered from 11.6% as of 1 January 2020 owing to the removal of the counter-cyclical capital buffer and the early adoption of CRD V Article104(a).

9 Announced measures total 22% of GDP.

6 29 July 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Q2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offset coronavirus disruption

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7 29 July 2020 Deutsche Bank AG: Q2 2020: Regained strengths in core businesses help offset coronavirus disruption