detailed survey results 4q 20161 detailed survey results —4q 2016 american institute of cpas 2...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Detailed Survey Results — 4Q 2016
2American Institute of CPAs
Survey Background
Conducted between November 9-30, 2016
Quarterly Survey
CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers)
AICPA members in Business & Industry only
600 qualified responses
2
3American Institute of CPAs
Survey Highlights
3
74Overall index
improved
Up from 69 last quarter,
and 69 in Q4 2015
All components up
quarter to quarter and
year to year
Organization optimism up
from 68 to 74
Revenue index increases
three points from 75 to 78;
profits from 69 to 74
Hiring and spending plans
also improve
62%Now optimistic
about US Economy
Up from only 38% in Q3
Outlook for economy at
highest level since 1Q
2015
Optimism in retail
bounces back from only
33% in Q3 to 50%
optimistic in Q4
Manufacturing and other
sectors also show
improved optimism
62%Have plans for
expansion
Index component
improves from 72 to 74
as those with plans to
contract lower than Q3
Plans for companies
with revenues >$100
million to < $1 billion
increase from 59% to
67%
Expansion plans for
companies with
revenues > $1 billion
ease from 66% to 62%
4American Institute of CPAs 4
5American Institute of CPAs
CPA Outlook Index
The CPA Outlook Index is the composite of the following nine
indicators at equal weights:• U.S. Economy Optimism - Respondent optimism about the U.S. economy
• Organization Optimism - Respondent optimism about prospects for their own organization
• Expansion Plans - Respondent expectations of whether their business will expand over the
next 12 months
• Revenue - Expectations for increases or decreases in revenue over the next 12 months
• Profits - Expectations for increases or decreases in profits over the next 12 months
• Employment - Expectations for increases or decreases in headcount over the next 12 months
• IT Spending - Plans for IT spending over the next 12 months
• Other Capital Spending - Plans for capital spending over the next 12 months
• Training & Development - Plans for spending on employee training and development over the
next 12 months
A reading above 50 indicates a generally positive outlook with increasing activity.
A reading below 50 indicates a generally negative outlook with decreasing
activity.
The CPA Outlook Index is a robust measure of sentiment about the U.S. economy that is
supported by the unique insight and knowledge that CEOs, CFOs, Controllers, and other
CPA executives have about the prospects for their own organizations, their expectations
for revenues and profits, and their plans for spending and employment.
5
6American Institute of CPAs
CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI)
4Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q16
CPA OutlookIndex
64 69 67 63 59 66 69 69 69 70 72 75 78 74 72 71 69 63 68 69 74
64
6967
6359
6669 69 69 70
7275
7874
72 7169
63
68 69
74
CPA
Outlook
Index – 74
6
7American Institute of CPAs
CPA Outlook Index Component Indicators
7
Component 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 ∆Q to Q ∆Y to Y
U.S. Economic Optimism 64 47 59 58 76 18 12
Organization Optimism 70 63 68 68 74 06 04
Expansion Plans 70 63 69 72 74 02 04
Revenue 74 68 74 75 78 03 04
Profits 67 60 63 69 74 05 07
Employment 67 59 63 66 68 02 01
IT Spending 77 73 76 75 77 02 00
Other Capital Spending 72 67 70 71 73 02 01
Training & Development 68 67 67 70 71 01 03
Total CPAOI 69 63 68 69 74 05 05
8American Institute of CPAs
CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI) vs. GDP
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
CPA OutlookIndex
71 69 63 68 69 74
Changein GDP
2.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.4% 3.2%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP Growth
CPA Outlook Index
8
9American Institute of CPAs 9
10American Institute of CPAs
62%Optimism for US
economy up from
only 38% in Q3
Election results cited by both
optimists and pessimists
Optimists noted hopes for
reduced regulation, repeal of
ACA and lower income taxes
Pessimists noted global
unrest, healthcare costs, oil
prices and anticipated interest
rate increases
61%Organizational
optimism up from
53% in Q3
Optimism for respondent’s
own organization at 61% is
higher than any period since
1Q 2015
The percentage of
companies with expansion
plans maintained the Q3
level of 62%
The percentage of
companies expecting their
businesses to contract
eased from 17% in Q3 to
14% in Q4
US Economy and Organization Highlights
28%Inflation concerns
increase to 2014
levels
Concern about labor costs
continues to be most
significant but eased from
55% to 43%
Raw material cost increases
now concern 20% up from
18% in Q3
Energy cost and interest rate
concerns both jumped –
• Energy from 5% to 10%
• Interest from 14% to 23%
10
11American Institute of CPAs
Optimism & Expansion
U.S., Organization, Expansion
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
U.S. 19% 43% 34% 22% 21% 32% 49% 44% 38% 49% 51% 52% 64% 68% 52% 48% 45% 28% 37% 38% 62%
Organization 45% 55% 54% 44% 41% 50% 57% 55% 57% 59% 61% 65% 67% 63% 58% 59% 53% 44% 53% 53% 61%
Expansion 59% 61% 61% 56% 50% 58% 62% 62% 62% 63% 64% 68% 71% 64% 61% 60% 57% 52% 58% 62% 62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
11
12American Institute of CPAs
For your business, are you more
concerned about inflation or deflation?
43%
37%
33% 32% 31%36%
30%35%
31%29%
32%
38%
27%23% 23%
25%23%
14%
23%
11%
28%
11%6%
9% 10% 9%6% 7% 7% 7% 8%
6% 5%10% 12% 10% 10% 11%
22%
12%
18%
4%
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Inflation or Deflation?
Inflation Deflation
For your business, over the next 6
months, are you more concerned
about the possibility of …?
12
13American Institute of CPAs
Food costsEnergycosts
Raw materialcosts
Labor costsInterest
ratesOther
4Q15 2% 12% 23% 37% 22% 5%
1Q16 3% 6% 19% 44% 19% 9%
2Q16 0% 11% 20% 44% 16% 9%
3Q16 4% 5% 18% 55% 14% 4%
4Q16 1% 10% 20% 43% 23% 4%
2%
12%
23%
37%
22%
5%3%
6%
19%
44%
19%
9%
0%
11%
20%
44%
16%
9%
4% 5%
18%
14%
4%
1%
10%
20%
43%
23%
4%
Inflationary Factor Representing the Most Significant Risk to your Business
Inflationary Risks and Costs
13
14American Institute of CPAs 14
15American Institute of CPAs
Revenues
and Profits Revenue and Profit
projections both
improve
Expected revenue increase for
coming twelve months
improves from 2.9% in Q3 to
3.6% in Q4
Profit projections also
increase from a 2.3% expected
increase in Q3 to 3.1% in Q4
Hiring and
Employment Headcount plans
improve; costs also
tick up
Anticipated increases in
headcount for the coming
year increased to 1.6% in q4,
up from 1.3% in Q3.
Salary and benefit costs are
expected to increase at a
rate of 2.3%, up from 2.1% in
Q3.
Healthcare cost projections
also jumped from 5.6% to
6.1%, the highest expected
rate of increase since Q3
2014
Key Performance Indicator Highlights
Spending
PlansR&D spending and
“other capital” lead
the improvements
Spending for IT continues to
‘lead the league’, projected
at 2.9% in Q4
Training remains constant at
1.6% quarter to quarter
Other capital spending
anticipated increase
improves from 2.4% in Q3 to
2.7% in Q4
R&D spending jumps from
1.1% in Q3 to 1.5% in Q4, the
highest expected rate
increase since Q3 2015
15
16American Institute of CPAs
Key Performance Indicators
Expected Growth in
Revenue and Profits
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Revenue 2.8% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 4.4% 4.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 3.0% 2.9% 3.6%
Profit 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% 0.7% 1.5% 2.3% 3.1%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Thinking about the coming 12 months, please
comment on the probable change for your
organization for …
16
17American Institute of CPAs
Employees, Salary & Benefits
and Healthcare Costs
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Employees 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6%
Salary & Benefits 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.3%
Healthcare 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2% 5.7% 6.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 6.1%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Thinking about the coming 12 months, please
comment on the probable change for your
organization …
17
18American Institute of CPAs
Pricing & Other Costs
Average Change Expected
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Prices Charged 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8%
Input Prices 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% 1.9% 2.4%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Thinking about the coming 12 months, please
comment on the probable change for your
organization …
18
19American Institute of CPAs
Spending Plans
IT, Other Capital & Training
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
IT 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9%
Other Capital 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 1.5% 2.1% 2.4% 2.7%
Training 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Thinking about the coming 12 months,
please comment on the probable
change for your organization for …
19
20American Institute of CPAs
Spending Plans
Marketing & R&D
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Marketing 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5%
R&D 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Thinking about the coming 12 months, please
comment on the probable change for your
organization for …
20
21American Institute of CPAs 21
22American Institute of CPAs
Hiring Plans
55%Hiring plans continue to
improve
55% of all companies say they have the
appropriate number of employees
Returning to levels seen in Q4 2015 and Q1
2016
Excess number of employees eased four
points to only 9% down from 13% in Q3
35%More than 1/3 have too few
employees
The percentage with too few employees who
are reluctant to hire declined to 15%
Down two points from Q3 and three points
from 18% in Q2 2016
Those with too few employees that are
planning to hire eased a point from 21% in Q3
to 20% in Q4
22
23American Institute of CPAs
Overall staff situation
relative to your needs
We have an excessnumber ofemployees
We haveapproximately the
appropriate numberof employees
We have too fewemployees, but arehesitating to hire
We have too fewemployees and are
planning to hireOther
4Q15 10% 53% 17% 18% 2%
1Q16 13% 53% 16% 15% 3%
2Q16 12% 49% 18% 19% 2%
3Q16 13% 48% 17% 21% 1%
4Q16 9% 55% 15% 20% 1%
10%
53%
17% 18%
2%
13%
53%
16% 15%
3%
12%
49%
18% 19%
2%
13%
48%
17%
21%
1%
9%
55%
15%
20%
1%
Given current conditions, how would you
characterize your overall staffing situation
relative to your needs (i.e., do you have excess
capacity or are employees stretched)?
23
24American Institute of CPAs 24
25American Institute of CPAs
Top Challenges Facing Organizations
Regulatory requirements maintained their place at the top of the
challenges list
Employee and benefit costs jumped three spots to the second place
in the ranking of challenges
Domestic economic challenges, availability of skilled personnel and
domestic competition each fell one slot this quarter
Developing new products and services jumped from ninth place to
sixth place, switching places with concern about stagnant/declining
markets which fell from sixth to ninth
Domestic political leadership maintained the seventh spot
Changing customer preferences returned to the top ten, claiming
eighth place, the same as the Q4 2015 ranking
Staff turnover similarly returned to the top ten for the first time since
it claimed the number ten slot in Q4 2014
25
26American Institute of CPAs
Top Challenges for OrganizationsPlease indicate the top three
challenges for your organization
4Q 15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
1Regulatory
requirements/changes
Domestic economic
conditions
Regulatory
requirements/changes
Regulatory
requirements/changes
Regulatory
requirements/changes
2Domestic economic
conditions
Regulatory
requirements/changes
Domestic economic
conditions
Domestic economic
conditionsEmployee and benefits costs
3 Domestic competition Stagnant/declining marketsAvailability of skilled
personnel
Availability of skilled
personnel
Domestic economic
conditions
4Availability of skilled
personnelDomestic competition Domestic competition Domestic competition
Availability of skilled
personnel
5 Stagnant/declining marketsAvailability of skilled
personnelEmployee and benefits costs Employee and benefits costs Domestic competition
6 Employee and benefits costs Employee and benefits costs Stagnant/declining markets Stagnant/declining marketsDeveloping new
products/services/markets
7 Global economic conditions Domestic political leadership Domestic political leadership Domestic political leadership Domestic political leadership
8Changing customer
preferences
Financing (access/cost of
capital)
Developing new
products/services/marketsLiquidity
Changing customer
preferences
9 Domestic political leadershipDeveloping new
products/services/marketsLiquidity
Developing new
products/services/marketsStagnant/declining markets
10 Global economic conditions Domestic political leadership Energy costsFinancing (access/cost of
capital)Staff Turnover
26
27American Institute of CPAs 27
28American Institute of CPAs
Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook - 1 of 3
Optimism Improves for Retail, Wholesale Trade and Manufacturing
Construction, Real Estate and Finance & Insurance also see improved optimism
Retail trade optimism improved from 33% in Q3 to 50% in Q4
Wholesale trade optimism also improved slightly from 45% to 48%
Hiring for retail continues to be soft and eased further from a projected rate of 1.1% in Q3 to only 0.8% in Q4
Manufacturing optimism also improved from 47% to 55%
Manufacturing hiring improved from 1.4% to 1.7%
Construction optimism improved from 69% in Q3 to 75% in Q4
Real Estate and Property improved from 62% to 69%
Finance & Insurance from 57% to 66% optimistic
Construction hiring improved from 1.0% to 2.0 %
Real Estate hiring improved from 1.5% to 1.7%
Finance and Insurance maintained its 1.8% rate
Banking sector hiring is also expected to improve considerably, up from 0.6% in Q3 to 2.3% in Q4
28
29American Institute of CPAs
Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook - 2 of 3
Technology and Professional Service see declines in Optimism
Healthcare providers constant; Healthcare –other up significantly
Technology optimism eases slightly from 71% in Q3 to 67% in Q4
Technology hiring also falls off from 4.86% in Q3 to 2.0% in Q4
Professional service optimism falls off sharply from 67% to only 48% optimistic
Professional service hiring continues to be strong; eases slightly from 3.2% in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4
Healthcare providers maintained their relative optimism, improved a point to 69% in Q4, up from 68% in Q3
Healthcare – other jumped significantly from only 50% optimistic in Q3 to 80% optimistic in Q4
Healthcare providers also top the list in terms of plans for increased hiring in the coming year at a 2.8% rate
29
30American Institute of CPAs
Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook - 3 of 3
South and Midwest regions see improvement in optimism
Smallest and largest employers most hesitant to hire
South – optimism in South bounces back from 48% in Q3 to 68% in Q4
Midwest – also recovers, improving from 53% to 62% optimistic in Q4
West – improves slightly from 57% to 59%
Northeast – gives up two points, falling from 58% to 56%
Employers with > $1 billion in revenues is the segment with the highest percentage of respondents (13%) with excess employees; they are also the segment with too few employees (34%). However, 22% of the largest companies with too few employees are hesitant to hire.
Employers with revenues < $10 million are also mixed; only 6% have excess employees; while 30% have too few employees, only 11% are planning to hire; 19% are hesitant.
Plans to hire are highest in the category of employers with revenues in the $100 million to $1 billion category at 27%
30
31American Institute of CPAs
Organization Optimism by Industry
66% 69%
85%
65%
28%39%
50%
33%
50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Retail Trade
66%
54%65%
54%
23%
42%50%
45% 48%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Wholesale Trade
71%63%
55% 53%
41%48% 48% 47%
55%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Manufacturing
50%
80%
60%67%
52% 53%61%
71% 67%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Technology
31
32American Institute of CPAs
Organization Optimism by Industry
68% 72%64% 68%
60%
46%
70% 67%
48%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Professional Service
71%66%
74%65%
49%41%
58% 57%66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Finance & Insurance
64% 68% 65%69%
48% 52%62% 62%
69%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Real Estate
78%83%
64% 64%
51%59% 59%
69%75%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Construction
32
33American Institute of CPAs
Organization Optimism by Industry
75%
56%50%
67%
44%
67% 63%
50%
80%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Health Care Other
65%
49% 47%
69%
38%
52%
69% 68% 69%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
Health Care Provider
33
34American Institute of CPAs
Expected Employment Change
by Industry
Thinking about the coming 12 months, please
comment on the probable change for your
organization for Number of Employees
1.1
1.7
0.6
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.2
1.0
4.9
0.6
3.2
2.9
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.8
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Retail Trade
Real Estate Property
Not for Profit
Manufacturing
Finance and Insurance
Mining
Trans & Distribution
Construction
Technology
Banking
Professional Services
Healthcare Provider
Q4
Q3
2.0
34
35American Institute of CPAs
Organization Optimism
by Region
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
South 48% 38% 53% 48% 68%
Midwest 55% 45% 53% 53% 62%
West 55% 55% 54% 57% 59%
Northeast 58% 48% 62% 58% 56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Please select the rating that best describes your
view for the economic outlook for your own
organization for the next 12 months.
35
36American Institute of CPAs
Expansion Plans by
Business Size
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
< $10 million 54% 55% 58% 50% 44% 52% 53% 56% 56% 56% 59% 59% 65% 59% 47% 61% 52% 44% 55% 53% 52%
$10 to <$100 million 56% 60% 59% 58% 52% 58% 63% 61% 63% 62% 65% 69% 72% 63% 66% 62% 57% 59% 61% 65% 63%
$100 million to <$1 billion 62% 66% 66% 56% 53% 63% 63% 64% 62% 71% 65% 73% 72% 67% 65% 60% 57% 50% 61% 59% 67%
> $1 billion 69% 65% 62% 54% 53% 68% 68% 68% 64% 69% 66% 71% 75% 77% 53% 56% 59% 49% 50% 66% 62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
52% of all businesses expect to expand a little in the next twelve months 10% expect to expand a lot. 36% expect to contract a little or stay the same Only 1% expect to contract a lot vs 4% in Q3
Please indicate whether you expect your
business to expand or contract over the
next 12 months
36
37American Institute of CPAs
Businesses in the >$1 billion range
are most likely to have excess
employees
We have anexcess numberof employees
We haveapproximately
the appropriatenumber ofemployees
We have toofew employees,
but arehesitating to
hire
We have toofew employees
and are planningto hire
Other
< $10 million 6% 63% 19% 11% 1%
$10 to <$100 million 9% 58% 12% 21% 0%
$100 million to <$1 billion 10% 47% 14% 27% 2%
> $1 billion 13% 52% 22% 12% 1%
6%
63%
19%
11%
1%
9%
58%
12%
21%
0%
10%
47%
14%
27%
2%
13%
52%
22%
12%
1%
Given current conditions, how would you
characterize your overall staffing situation
relative to your needs (i.e., do you have excess
capacity or are employees stretched)?
37
38American Institute of CPAs
2016 Elections – impact on business
Liquidity – plans and expectations
Survey Within a Survey
38
39American Institute of CPAs
Presidential Election –
A Factor in Business
Planning?
Now that you know the outcome of the 2016
presidential election, how much will the
outcome be a consideration or factor in your
company’s business planning, budgeting or
forecasting for the next fiscal year?
25%
30%
30%
15%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
NOT A FACTOR
SLIGHT OR SOMEWHAT A FACTOR
MODERATE FACTOR
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR
39
40American Institute of CPAs
Presidential Election –
Most likely impact on
hiring
What are your company’s most likely
actions concerning job creation and hiring,
now that the presidential election has been
decided?
2%
9%
9%
36%
44%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
REDUCE NEW HIRING
INCREASE HIRING
DEFER NEW HIRING (ONLY REPLACE ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL)
CONTINUE TO HIRE AT CURRENT PACE
ELECTION IS NOT A FACTOR IN HIRING
40
41American Institute of CPAs
If you were to hire more people, what type of
position would you hire most of:
4%
6%
8%
11%
71%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
TEMPORARY EMPLOYEES
CONTRACT EMPLOYEES
I DON'T KNOW
PART-TIME EMPLOYEES
FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES
Presidential Election –
Type of position most
likely if hiring
41
42American Institute of CPAs
Presidential Election –
Capital spending and
business expansion plans
With the presidential election over, what are
your company’s most likely actions concerning
capital expenditures and business expansion,
including borrowing and financing?
3%
6%
13%
38%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
REDUCE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING
DEFER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING
INCREASE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING
ELECTION OUTCOME IS NOT A FACTOR IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING
CONTINUE TO SPEND ON CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION AT CURRENT PACE
42
43American Institute of CPAs
Liquidity - Current
Position
How would characterize your organization’s
current liquidity position?
8%
11%
14%
18%
49%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
LESS THAN WE NEED, BUT CREDIT/CAPITAL AVAILABILITY AND/OR PRICING IS A BARRIER
LESS THAN WE NEED, AND PLAN TO RAISE CAPITAL
MORE THAN WE NEED AND PLAN TO DEPLOY
MORE THAN WE NEED, BUT RELUCTANT TO DEPLOY
ABOUT RIGHT
43
44American Institute of CPAs
Liquidity - Expectations
for financing difficulty
Do you expect it to be more or less difficult to
obtain your required financing in the coming
year?
11%
13%
18%
58%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
LESS DIFFICULT
MORE DIFFICULT
NA
ABOUT THE SAME
44
45American Institute of CPAs
Liquidity – Plans for level
of corporate cash holdings
Are you planning on reducing your
corporate cash holdings in the next 12
months? If so, to what degree?
2%
11%
14%
14%
59%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
YES, SIGNIFICANTLY
YES, MODERATELY
YES, A BIT
NO, PLANNING TO ADD TO LIQUIDITY HOLDINGS
NO, MAINTAINING LIQUIDITY HOLDINGS
45
46American Institute of CPAs
Liquidity – Plans for
companies reducing their
cash holdings?
If you indicated that you plan to reduce cash
holdings, what are your plans for the cash?(Check all that apply – percentages add to more than
100% due to multiple plans)
30%
6%
7%
18%
19%
20%
20%
36%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
OTHER/NOT SURE
SHIFTING TO LONGER-TERM INVESTMENT MIX
STOCK BUYBACK
ACQUISITION OF OTHER BUSINESS TRANSACTION
DIVIDEND OF OTHER EQUITY DISTRIBUTION
REDUCING DEBT
BUSINESS EXPANSION/HIRING
CAPITAL PROJECTS
46
47American Institute of CPAs
Liquidity – Placement
of funds shifted in
response to money
market regulations
Have you taken any steps to shift your cash
allocation from money market funds in
response to new regulations that limit this
practice? If so, where are you putting the
funds?
1%
1%
3%
4%
11%
80%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
SHORT-TERM BOND FUNDING
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
OTHER (PLEASE SPECIFY)
GOVERNMENT FUNDS
NOT SURE
NO, WE HAVEN'T SHIFTED ALLOCATION
47
48American Institute of CPAs 48
49American Institute of CPAs
Demographics
20%
34%11%
12%
6%
4%
13%
Size of Organization
$0 to under $10 million
$10 million to under $50 million
$50 million to under $100 million
$100 million to under $250 million
$250 million to under $500 million
$500 million to under $1 billion
$1 billion or more
17%
69%
1% 12%
1%
Type of Organization
Publicly Listed Company
Privately Owned Entity
Government
Not for Profit
Other
12% 2%
7%
43%1%
20%
5%5%
4%
Position
CEO/President
COO
VP
CFO
CAO/CAE
CIO
Controller
Director
Accounting, Audit, Tax or Technology Manager
Other
49
50
For additional information contact:
Kenneth W. Witt, CPA, CGMA Lead Technical Manager
Management [email protected]
Cary JonesAssociate Manager
Business, Industry & Government Team [email protected]
50