Detailed Nifty Analysis 11 Sep 09

In the last presentation…“4700 is THE LEVEL. If sustains, Nifty should rally. Support 4550“

Nifty moved exactly as advised.

You can download the pps at www.activetrades.in/downloads/Nifty399.pps

Nifty Long Term Chart

Nifty Long Term Chart: As it looks clear from the chart, the long term bullishness of Indian markets is still very much intact. The earlier supports are now resistances. Stiff resistances.

See the effect of it

As and when R1 brokeNifty went to R2.

Meaning 6000 again??Conclusion from the long term chart basic analysis:1) The long term bullishness is still intact.2) The R2 4400 is now broken, though insignificantly, leading way towards R3.3) The R3 stands at 6000+

Clouds were sleeping…

Now its raining…

Der aaye durust aaye…

As and when it rained, Markets gained! We have been saying from a long time that 4700 as and when breaks, should make market rally, and exactly that happened.

A lot of damages have been reversed, though not completely.

The triangle has been broken at 4750, now giving supp at 4750.

The channel support of the rally from 2500 to 4900 has been intact.

Whenever Nifty moves, there are waves of 2 amplitude in the same movement.

Bigger Wave

Smaller wavesHence tgt1 4900, tgt2 5200

Nifty Med Term Chart

Summarizing, we see that while Nifty has not broken the channel support of the current upmove from 2500 to 4900, there are movements of 2 amplitudes which indicate us targets of 4900 and 5200. 4900 has already been hit, and we are therefore witnessing consolidation

post that.

The medium term triangle at 4700 has also broken which makes the wave utterly butterly bullish for the medium term. This also provides a support at 4750.

The medium term support should be the final stop to longs created. That stands at 4630.

Nifty Short Term Chart

Supports:

48154770-35

4700

4630 should be the final stop of all longs.

Summarizing

Monsoon is on, but it is debatable that we have reversed the damages completely. Markets are slowly getting close to the uncomfortable zone of valuations. Now the euphoria and confidence should be the driver in the markets. The upside can be to 5200, 5400, then to 6000 odd.

Everybody including us is now bullish, looking at the technicals. 4900 did come after 4700, meaning a full 5% rally, which is not small. The one who wants to sell can sell easily as everybody is buying.

We expect some profit booking that can take index upto 4750, 4700 or even to 4650. Even if it has to correct, it is likely that it will make a double top, meaning the 4900 zone to come again. Hence we advise buying on dips with stop at 4630.

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See how precisely we advised, and we even sketched the forward chart…

And see the future movements indicated by grey and red. You can read the complete report at the Nifty View page.

The actual chart… It is an old chart. Now Nifty is around 4600+