Design in an uncertain and complex world...

...with the support of scenario planning

P A Martin Börjessonmartin@futuramb.se

www.futuramb.se+46 704 262891

@futuramb

Why am I here?

I’m going to make your world/design context a more complex place!

Context is everything

Contextualenvironment

Social factors, values and

demography

Technologydevelopment and

innovation

Environment and ecology

Politics, lawsand regulations

Economy, industries and

companies

Transactionenvironment

Internalworld

Design in context

Structural/instutional

perspective

Complex/compound use

situations

Elementary use case situations

Strategic future scenarios

Alternative complex situations

Specific functions which are robust over

time

Here and now Future/what-if

Time

Basic level

Higher level

Even higher level

Perspective

The research/design dilemma

Technologies/tools

Con

text

/sit

uati

on

Current

Future

Current Future

Risk of producing short term solutions with soon obsolete tools

Risk of surrenderto future challenges

Risk of producing irrelevant technologies/

design

Balanced and relevant

technologies/design for relevant future

situations

Are design contexts stable?

• Are there differences between artefacts and systems?

• How fast are they changing?

Time is important

• Good design is timeless

• What time perspective do you currently have? Do you know?

Was it better in the old days? Clock of the Long Now

Uncertainty over time

Effect of predictable factore

Distance to future

Uncertainty due to new and previously unknown factors

Where are we today?

• We are currently living in a rather turbulent, changing and uncertain environment

• Artefacts and systems tend to live much longer then we expect

• The users are increasingly • more innovative• more critical, demanding and unfaithful • striving to define and master their own situation• moving among different contexts

• We seems to be in a structural turbulent time when several inflection points working in concert

Transition society

The industrialmass logic/”the factory”

New emergingstructures - logics

Transition society

Urbanization and demographic challenges

Nature’s limitations are starting to be realized

The increasing systemic complexity, internal relationship and inner challenges

Globalization 2.0 and new patterns of consumption

Changing geopolitical world order

The emergance of business ecologies

Digital life and organization

Empowerment of the individual

Knowledge based economy

Level 1

Single view of future

C

B

A

Level 2

Alternative futures

Level 4

True uncertainty

Level 3

Range of futures

Degrees of uncertainty

Key question

How do we understand and take into consideration the changing greater contextual environment?

An environment which is

• dynamicly changing

• complicated and complex

• uncertain

• abstract/far away

How do you manage uncertainty?

Oil price development 1970 - 1981

High

Low

Base

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Oil price development 1970 - 1990

High

Low

Base

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Actual outcome

Clues

‣ “Memory of the future”

‣ The brain rearranges memory fragments to images of the future

‣ Provides a foundation for intentions and plans

‣ Focus perception and filter information

Autonomous

Uncertainty in time

Un

certainty

in issu

e

Today

Traditional

predictions

Driving f

Driving force

Driving force

Driving f

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

Scenario logic

Different approach: focus on criticaluncertainties

futurambfuture · insight · strategy

The future for american automotive industry

Low-price fuel

High-price fuel

Neotraditionalvalues

Inner-directed values

Engineers’ Challenge

• Efficiency• Protectionism

GreenHighways

• Smaller cars• Versatility

Foreign Competition

• Sportier cars• Light trucks and vans

Long LiveDetroit

• Muscle cars• Brand loyalty

(mid 1980:s)

futurambfuture · insight · strategy

What’s the point?

Jail

The factory

bling bling

Systemsanalyst?

??

???(wwdkwdk)

don’t knowknow

haveknowledge

don’t have knowledge

Make horseshoes

Accounting

Fire and heat

Contextualenvironment

Social factors, values and

demography

Technologydevelopment and

innovation

Environment and ecology

Politics, lawsand regulations

Economy, industries and

companies

Transactionenvironment

Internalworld

Events

Patterns

Underlying structureCritical uncertainties Technology

Laws & regulationsEconomy

Values

Culture

Politics

Ecology

”CNN provides the events,Henry Kissinger is the underlying structure”

Driving forces

Systemic view

Scenario development

Events

Patterns

Underlying structure

Visible manifestations

Trends

Causal relations

Stories

Sequences of events

Driving forcesScenario logic

System Scenarios

Critical uncertainties

Omvärld

Närvärld

Invärld

Scenario thinking process

Fas 1: Orientation- Interviews- Focal issue

Fas 2: Explore- Critical uncertainties- Predetermined elements

Fas 3: Synthese - Scenario framework- Scenarios Fas 4: Act

- Implications- Strategic agenda

Fas 5: Monitor- Leading indicators- Monitoring system

1. Key focual issueand time perspective

5. Scenario logic

Scenario development

2.Key factors

4. Prioritization

3. Environmentaldriving forces

Internalworld

Social factors, values and

demography

Technologydevelopment and

innovation

Environment and ecology

Politics, lawsand regulations

Economy, industries and compananies

Environment

Transactionenvironment

1. Choose key focal issue(+ time perspective)

2. Key factors

3. Environmentaldriving forces

4. Prioritization

1. Key focal issue andtime perspective

5. Scenario logic

Uncertainty

Impact offoreseeable

factors

Distance to future

F S G

Source: Kees van der HeijdenScenarios – The Art of Strategic Conversation

2. List key factors2. Key factors

3. Environmentaldriving forces

4. Prioritization

1. Key focal issue andtime perspective

5. Scenario logic

1. Brainstorm on PostIt notes!– List everything you know have an impact– ”Empty the barrel of the obvious”

2. Cluster notes and identify 4-6 key areas of impact– Avoid generic predefined areas– ”Let the notes talk!

Brainstorm tips:• First individual brainstorm, then group discussion• No single word PostIts• ”Yes, and…”• Keep the pace and keep the time limit!

3. Identify environmentaldriving forces

2. Key factors

3. Environmentaldriving forces

4. Prioritization

1. Key focal issue andtime perspective

5. Scenario logic

• Widen the search to a higher level

• Add driving forces which

• Impacts the 4-6 key areas of impact

• Impacts the focal issue directly

• Use STEEP model

Tips:

• Ask why, why, why, why, why (5 times)

• Don’t be afraid of long shots!

• Keep yourself in the outer environment

Social factorsCultural patternsValues and lifestylesDemographicsHealthCrimeEducation

Technological factorsDiffusion of technologiesInnovationsScientific progress

Economical factorsIndustries and companiesGlobal, regional and local economyLabour force and incomeInfrastructure

Environmental factorsEcologyClimate/weatherPollutionRecyclingEnergy

Political factorsPolicys, laws and regulationsPolitical agendasCourt decisions

STEEP-model2. Key factors

3. Environmentaldriving forces

4. Prioritization

1. Key focal issue andtime perspective

5. Scenario logic

4. Prioritize driving forces2. Key factors

3. Environmentaldriving forces

4. Prioritization

1. Key focal issue andtime perspective

5. Scenario logic

Unimportant

Uncertainty

Predeterminedelements

Criticaluncertainties

Impact

5. Construct scenario logic2. Key factors

3. Environmentaldriving forces

4. Prioritization

1. Key focal issue andtime perspective

5. Scenario logic

ABC XYZIssue

IssueHigh Low

ABC XYZ

High

Low

ScenarioA

ScenarioB

ScenarioC

ScenarioD

1. Identify two most critical uncertainties• From the top right corner

2. Stretch them to their extremes• Mutually exclusiveness!

3. Construct scenario cross4. Discuss resulting scenarios and

give them telling names

Windtunneling/evaluating

Scenario based analysis

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

Adopt-a-world

D

A

B

C

Alternativefuture worlds

workshop

The market in each worldworkshop

Products andservices in each worldworkshop

AnalysisAggregate results

D

A

B

C

D

A

B

C D

AB

C

Experts

• Research directions• Core technologies• Product and service

concept ideas

The research/design solution

Technologies/tools

Con

text

/sit

uati

on

Current

Future

Current Future

Balanced and relevant

technologies/design for relevant future

situations

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario DScenario C

D

AB

C

Scenario buffered design

Specification

Design

PROJECT PLAN

Development

Implementation

Specification

Design

STRATEGY

Development

Implementation

Actual use(Ah, that one!)

Scenarioplanning

TRADITIO

NAL

PROJE

CT

Actual use(Wrong!)

Scenario references

http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/Website with many references to articles, books and other resources

The Art of the Long ViewPeter Schwartz

Scenarios – The art of strategic conversationKees van der Heijden