Desert Outlook and Options Desert Outlook and Options for Actionfor Action

Christian Nellemann and Stefanie Christian Nellemann and Stefanie HerrmannHerrmann

September 7, 2005September 7, 2005

The overall story line:

Deserts: Our common cradle of life

Deserts and our planet-The uniqueness of deserts (proud of deserts)-The uniqueness of desert people (proud of the people)-Why deserts matter to the World (dust and oil)-State of the Worlds deserts (here’s the situation)-Challenges and opportunities (works and not works)-Outlook (future risks)(why we have to act)-Policy gaps (here’s what we want to do)

Outlook for desert human and natural Outlook for desert human and natural environmentenvironment

Future sustainability and human well-Future sustainability and human well-being in desertsbeing in deserts

Closing remarks: options for actionClosing remarks: options for action

Chapter OutlineChapter Outline

Purpose of outlookPurpose of outlook

Bring scientific knowledge into a format suitable Bring scientific knowledge into a format suitable for communication and policymakingfor communication and policymaking

Demonstrate that different policy choices give Demonstrate that different policy choices give different results (maps and graphics)different results (maps and graphics)

Provide an overviewProvide an overview Early warningEarly warning Provides a key to media and policy makers on Provides a key to media and policy makers on

risks and reversibilityrisks and reversibility

Structure of the chapter:

-Introduction (linking to previous chapters and explain what scenarios are)

-Narrative scenarios and explanation of the differences in the scenarios and shortly on principles of models

-Quantitative scenarios and graphics-Compare trends and variation with different approaches and literature review-Summarize in a MA-table-Policy gaps and actions

1. Outlook for desert development1. Outlook for desert development

OUTLOOK – scenariosOUTLOOK – scenarios

WaterWater BiodiversityBiodiversity Land degradationLand degradation Dust stormsDust storms

1. Outlook for desert 1. Outlook for desert environmentenvironment

Development scenarios: WaterDevelopment scenarios: Water

Exploitation of non-renewable water resourcesExploitation of non-renewable water resources Gaps in water resourcesGaps in water resources Quantity and quality (IUCN-UNEP, WWAP, Quantity and quality (IUCN-UNEP, WWAP,

GIWA)GIWA) Existing models of water consumption and land Existing models of water consumption and land

use (polestar and others)use (polestar and others) Thorough literature review Thorough literature review Glaciers and climate changeGlaciers and climate change

2000

NEW: Can actually estimate rate of NEW: Can actually estimate rate of biodiversity loss towards 2010 and beyond biodiversity loss towards 2010 and beyond

given different measuresgiven different measures

Year

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Me

an o

rigin

al s

pe

cies

ric

hn

ess

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

Year

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Rat

e of

loss

in m

ean

RS

R (

% y

r-1

)

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40 SRES A1

SRES A2

SRES B1

SRES B2

Vulnerability of drylands to climatic and Vulnerability of drylands to climatic and anthropogenic stressesanthropogenic stresses

GrazingGrazing PollutionPollution Models and FAO-statisticsModels and FAO-statistics Invasive species (box)Invasive species (box) Diseases (box)Diseases (box) Narrative scenariosNarrative scenarios Model scenariosModel scenarios

Scenarios: Land degradationScenarios: Land degradation

White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 5

White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 9

Impacts of future changes on the human environment within and outside deserts

Graphics/scenarios

Narrative story

Impacts on human and natural Impacts on human and natural environment - overviewenvironment - overview

Traffic light table MA-style with all pressures Traffic light table MA-style with all pressures and regions for 2010 and 2050and regions for 2010 and 2050

Summary of recommendationsSummary of recommendations

MA directional table MA directional table

Taklamakan Lop Taklamakan Lop Nur Gobi ….Nur Gobi ….

Water availabilityWater availability BiodiversityBiodiversity Grazing pressureGrazing pressure Invasive speciesInvasive species PollutionPollution SalinizationSalinization Water consumptionWater consumption Dust storms Dust storms

3. Closing remarks: options for 3. Closing remarks: options for actionaction