desemberkonferansen 2008 - kristian siem ss7 new vessels
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DESEMBERKONFERANSEN 2008 - Kristian Siem SS7 New Vessels. Seven Oceans. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
DESEMBERKONFERANSEN 2008 - Kristian Siem
SS7 New Vessels
The Seven Oceans is a state-of-the-art purpose built deepwater rigid pipelay vessel fitted with an advanced flexible pipelay system, capable of operating in water depths of 3,000m, with up to 400t top tensioner and a 3,500t main reel.
Seven Oceans
Seven Seas
The Seven Seas is a new flexible deepwater pipelay and construction vessel, with 400t top tensioner VLS, 400t J-lay 400/350t crane and 3,000t carousel. It is capable of operating in water depths of 3,000m.
Subsea Field Development.
DISPOSISJON
1. FINANSKRISEN
2. OLJEPRISEN
3. AKTIVITETSNIVÅ FREMOVER
4. AKTIVITET PÅ NORSK SOKKEL
29.09.2008
UTVIKLING I OLJEPRISEN FRA 1985 FREM TIL JULI 2008
UTVIKLING I OLJEPRISEN SIDEN TOPPNIVÅET JULI 2008
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Oil price forecasts
E&P Spending vs. Previous Years Oil Price
Source: IEA, Handelsbanken Capital Markets
“We estimate that contracts worth almost US$ 0.5 tn will be awarded to oil service companies in the next two years”
Goldman Sachs talking about the outlook for the oil service industry
AKTIVITETSNIVÅ - Ability of clients to finance projects
• National oilcos– National strategic interest will often over-ride short-term economics.
– Credit Suisse survey shows marginal increase in capex plans from 2008 to 2009 for selected NOCs (excluding Russians - Gazprom & Lukoil).
• Major oilcos– Most are still cashflow positive after capex & dividends in $60-80/bbl
environment.
– Credit Suisse survey shows no noticeable decline in capex plans from 2008 to 2009.
• Independent oilcos– Most larger IOCs AA-rated & ability to leverage not particularly limited.
– Smaller IOCs typically use higher oil price hurdles & likely to have greater funding problems.
– Smaller IOCs estimated to account for only 5-10% of offshore E&P spending (but 20% of S7 revenue in 2009-12).
– Credit Suisse survey shows 29% decline in US independent capex plans from 2008 to 2009.
Source: HSBC
Project hurdle rates by project type
BP has shelved plans for its $500m Delaware LNG facility, arguing "market conditions do not support such a project near term".
Total states its Canada oil sands projects need an oil price of $90 a barrel
At current oil prices, most of S7’s target prospects are still economic but this is becoming marginal.
World Oil Supply & Oil Price
Reserve Replacement Ratio
Source: Handelsbanken Markets
Medium-term SURF World Market Demand: Annual Average Capex 2008-2012
Source: Infield Systems
$5.8bn
$2.6bn
$6.4bn
$5.3bn
$4.4bn
$1.0bn
<250m Water Depth: $14.3bn
250-1000m Water Depth: $4.3bn
1000m+ Water Depth : $7.0bn
Total Water Depth : $25.6bn
Now 2010-12
+45%
$11.2bn
$16.2bn
Subsea 7’s Target Market
Norwegian Subsea Market 2006 - 2012
The total value of the market 2008 – 2012 is estimated at $ 10,5 bn
In addition the IRM/Survey market will tender $ 6-700 million.
Norge-Subsea Market 2008 – 2012 Split on Operators
Norge-Market Value per Segment - MUSD
29.09.2008
The Siem Industries Group
Siem OffshoreNet income*: $122m
Subsea 7Net income*: $214m
STAR ReefersNet income*: $46m
Siem Car CarriersNet income*: $6.7m
German and SwedishIndustries
*2007 data
33.7% 44.9% 71.6%
88%
• Honest, High Quality and Profitable
• Reliable, Steady and Predictable Partner.
• Long term approach
• Acts quickly to understand and solve problems
The Siem Group has the financial and management strength and confidence to build businesses for the long term.
The Siem Group Values
Siem Gruppens investeringer I Norge siden 2000
NOK 1000
Fartøys ordre 24 skip NOK 11,500
Ny bedrift Vigra spolbase 150
Bygning SS7 kontor Stavanger 250
Totalt (+innkøå/utstyr) NOK 11,800
Antall ansatte 1000 personer
Kontorer: Kristiansund, Grimstad, Kristiansand, Stavanger, Bergen, Rovde, Oslo
Forskning bassert I Norge.
Luanda Spoolbase
Spoolbases / Bundle Fabrication Facilities
Wick, ScotlandLuanda, Angola
Vigra, Norway
Ubu, Brazil
Port Isabel , Texas
Vigra Welding Hall
Seven Oceans – Reeled Pipelay Vessel
Seven Oceans – Reeled Pipelay Vessel
Seven Seas - Pipelay and Construction
Seven TBN
Construction and Pipelay Vessels Vessel Owned Vessel Chartered
Kommandor 3000
Lochnagar
Seven Navica
Subsea Viking
Skandi Neptune
Toisa Perseus
Seven Oceans
Normand Seven
Seven Seas
Seven Sisters
Skandi Seven
Skandi Bergen
Diving Support Vessels Vessel Owned Vessel Chartered
Rockwater 1
Seven Pelican
Rockwater 2
Toisa Polaris
Seven Atlantic
Nødvendige aktiviteter som inngår I EPIC kontrakter
ROV support for exploration & production
Precise positioning services and solutions
Specialist welding division
Leading technology in deepwater development
Subsea Engineering Solutions
.
Current Fleet – 197 Vessels
Source: Market info
New Builds – 2008-2011
Type of New Builds Split on Delivery
“Short-term we see potential for margin increases, but increased supply will put pressure in margins long-term.”
DnB NOR Markets
“The outlook for the offshore construction industry has improved materially in recent months”
Morgan Stanley
Source: Market info
Rigid Lay11 %
Diving22 %
Construction67 %
Recently Awarded Projects
Projects Client Location
Block 31 BP Africa $460m
Troll B Gas Injection StatoilHydro North Sea $100m
Grove Extension Centrica North Sea $70m
Grouse, Stamford &Chestnut P2 Venture North Sea $67m
Block 12/21c Ithaca North Sea $22m
IRM/North Sea Total E&P North Sea $60m
Sul Capixaba Petrobras Brazil $200m
Cascade / Chinook Petrobras Gulf of Mexico $50m
Skarv & Idun BP Norge AS North Sea $265m
Block 18 LOF BP Angola $80m
Hybrid Extension Petrobras Brazil $390m
Vega Troll Norsk Hydro North Sea $340m
Peregrino Norsk Hydro / Anadarko Brazil $115m
BC-10 Shell Brazil $275m
North Sea Shell North Sea $1.1bn
.
UTFORDRINGER OG UTVIKLINGS TENDENSER
•Dypere vann
•Større felt
•Operasjon-personell-fokusering
•Nasjonalisme
•Sikkerhet mot terror
•Lokalt regelverk
•korrupsjon
•Skatt
NORSK SOKKEL
.
Subsea 7 Awarded Contracts from 01.01.07
COPNORVarious;
14 mill.USDStatoilHydroVisund Future; 13,2 mill.USD
StatoilHydroVega;
273 mill.USD
BPSkarv
Construction; 140 mill.USD
StatoilHydroTroll 02;
61 mill.USD
BPSkarv Flowline;
125 mill.USD
Lost; 945,6
mill.USD 60 %
Won; 626,2
mill.USD; 40 %
2009 Tenders for the 09 -12 Market
Contract AwardValue Chain
Client PortfolioBusiness
DevelopmentBusiness Aquisition
Contract&Procurement
Backlog Firm ($)
$ 2318
40 %
$ 2318 $ 2318 $ 900 40%
$1,067
2009
Tender
2009
Tender
2009
Tender
2008
Firm
2009 StatoilHydro
2009 BP
2009 Shell, CoP, ENI, Other operators
2009 Tenders and Project Execution: COP + Shell + Others
STORE OMRÅDER-STORE DYP-STORE FELT
FORBEDRINGS INITIATIV
• Teknologisk utvikling
• Bedre utførelse
• Klokere arbeidsform med kunder
• Bedre kapasitets utnyttelse
SUBSEA NÆRINGEN FREMOVER
• Mest krevende og høyest risiko innen offshore entreprenør næringen
• Stor aktivitet i mange år fremover
• Dypere vann
• Fartøy balansen kan bli truet av nye konstruksjonsfartøy
• Bedre kapasitets utnyttelse - samarbeid
• Større kontrakter - konsolidering
• Korreksjon I finansmarkedet var på tide- åpner nye muligheter.
TIME FOR ACTION