department of geography • lmu munich
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Department of Geography • LMU Munich. Modelling future water quality of lakes considering results of a regional climate model Mark Vetter. Presentation LMU. University of Munich, LMU, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich. Faculty of Geosciences - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Vetter, 28.06.2011 15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari 1
Department of Geography • LMU Munich
Modelling future water quality of lakes considering results of a regional climate model
Mark Vetter
Vetter, 28.06.2011 15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari 2
University of Munich, LMU, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Presentation LMU
Faculty of Geosciences(Departments of Paleontology, Geology, Vulcanology, Petrography, Geophysics
and Geography)
Department of Geography
Human Geography
Physical Geography
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Presentation German Group
Mario Carolin Stefan Rosa Mark
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Presentation German Group
Global Change InvestigationWorking Group Dr. Vetter
Climate Change Impact on Lakes and
Reservoirs
Calibrating and Validation of a
Thermodynamic Lake Modell and Coupling with an Ecological Modell considering Regional Climate
Modells
STEFAN WEINBERGER
Impact on Fish Ecology
CAROLIN SCHAFFER
Multidisciplinary Methods of Climate
Change Investigation in
mediterranean and templated climate
zones in Andalusia/Spain and
Bavaria/Germany
Development of surface drainage in South-
Western Spain (Doñana Natural Park, Andalusia) – human
activity or climate change?
ROSA WILM
Impact by Bioenergy Policies
considering Global Change
Sustainabilty by Bioenergy, Chances and Risks - A Study
Case of the Municipality of
Bräunlingen (Southern Black
Forest)
MARIO KUTTRUFF
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Content
1.) Introduction
2.) LAGO – Aims of the investigation project
3.) LAGO – Results
4.) Conclusions
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Lakes as
sentinels regulators integrator for current for future for past climate, climate, climate.
Overall idea
WILLIAMSON et al. 2009
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Aims LAGO-Project
LAGO (Limnological Effects of Global Change in Upper Bavaria - subproject Ammersee)
-Analysis of ecological lake properties in past meteorological extreme events -Calibration and validation of a thermodynamic water balance model using former measuring data
-Modelling lake ecological future under assumption of regional climate models (such as REMO)
-Development of scenarios for possible (ecological) future scenarios of water quality development
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Past heat balance
Current heat balance
Future heat balance
Modelling of heat balance
Time / Intensity of climate change impact
Modelling
DYRESM
2049 2050
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Regional Climate Modell REMO
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1.) Data download - For a certain emission scenario - Selection of variables of interest- Selection of period and timestep - For the entire modelation area (Middle Europe)
Regional Climate Modell REMO
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2.) Adaptation of data for study area-Selection of the certain gitter box (10x10km)-Rotation ellipsoid- Using UNIX/LINUX for working with data
Regional Climate Modell REMO
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3.) BIAS-Correction of Data- Overlapping of comparision periods- Linear transformation by linear regression
Variable
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 t
measured
modelled
Regional Climate Modell REMO
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Field Methods
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Study Area
Vetter & Aguillar Alba (submitted)
Kind of originGlacialmorpho-logic
Geographic coordinates, lowest point
47° 59’ 31’’ N, 11° 07’ 12’’ E
Mean altitude [m a.s.l.]
532.9
Volume [m³]1750.01 x
106
Mean depth [m] 37.55Maximum depth [m] 81.1
Mixing type dimicticWater renewable time [year]
2.65
Catchment area [km²]
993
Lake area/basin area
20
Length lakeside [km]
43
Surface area [km²]
46.6
Discharge mean main inflow Ammer [m³sec-1]
16.5
Discharge mean main outflow Amper [m³sec-1]
21.0
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Results
Vetter (2010)
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Data: LAGO-Projekt, own calculations, LfU
Schmidt-Stability
Results
Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010)
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Results of Model calibration (2004-2007)
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, WWA Weilheim
Results
2004 2005 2006 2007
°C
Weinberger & Vetter (in prep.)
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Results
Comparison Air Temperature 2004-2010 and 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD
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Results
Comparison Precipitation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD
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Results
Lake thermal balance 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, LfU
2041 2043 2045 2047 2049
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Results
Lake thermal balance 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, LfU
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Results
Schmidt-Stability in 2048
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, LfU
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Data: LAGO-Projekt, own calculations, LfU
Schmidt-Stability (1984-2009)
Results
Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010)
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Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario
Atmospheric and antropological input
situation remain in the range of penultimate
decade
Limnological scenarios Lake Ammersee
Scenario 2 – Increase of extreme events such as
heat and drought
Scenario 3 – Increase of extreme events such as
heat and drought + single events of intense rain in
catchment area
+
+
+
+
+
Results
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Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario
- Development of trophic level continuing as so far-Stabilisation of the mesoptrophic level
Szenario 2 -increase of stability in summer-decrease entry of oxygen in depth-increase of oxygen shrinkage in depth-Nutrition decrease in sediment-Increase in nutrition in epilimnion through delayed (autumn) or precipitate (spring) turbation-Increase in porduction of biomass and phytoplancton- deterioration of trophic level
Szenario 3-Increase mobilisation of allochthonos nutrients in the catchment area-Entry due to floods-Increase of P-Release of the sediment-More nutrients in the lake-Increase of phytoplancton production-Deterioration of trophic level- Slowing down / Stop of reoligotrofication
+ + ++ +
Results
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• Focus on consequences of positive temperature anomalies – possible average conditions of the future
• Assumed increase of these special situations. Especially summative effects may lead to distainable ecological consequences
• Some relationships betweeen limnological reactions and climate change (atmosphere/catchment area) clearer, some still need to investigate
• Reactions of the limnological eco-system to special meteorological situations is distainable but with no long-term ecological consequences (sufficient resilience of the system)
Conclusions 1/2
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• Necessity of permanent measurements of limnological parameters to improve model calibration
• Necessity of further checks/adaptation of meteorological parameters for simulation
• Calibration of thermodynamic water balance model can be used for estimates of future lake heat balance and limnophysical conditions
• Preparation is made for coupling of thermal heat balance model with ecological model (DYRESM-CAEDYM)
Conclusions 2/2
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Thank you very much for your attention!
Thanks to all contributers
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Thank you very much for your attention!
Thanks to all contributers
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Results
Comparison Total Radiation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050
Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD