department of energy and power systems prof.dr.sc. Željko tomšić university of zagreb faculty of...
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Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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“Upgrading Life in Historical Towns
– Sustainable Energy”
Energy Efficiency
Dubrovnik
October 3 - 4, 2013
International Workshop
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Sustainable Energy and
Strategic Vision of Energy
Efficiency as a Source of Energy
and How to Support in National
Energy Efficiency Action PlansProf.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić
CROATIA
University of ZagrebFaculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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An introductory thought…
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Without secure reliable energy:
Economic activity is not possible Motive power for industry and agriculture
IT for commerce etc.
Social development is not possible Lighting for education
Refrigeration for vaccines etc.
Environmental degradation often ensues Alternatives are often local, such as biomass etc.
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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According to the UN
A nation-state is energy secure to the degree that fuel and energy services are available to ensure:
a) survival of the nation,
b) protection of national welfare, and
c) minimization of risks associated with supply and use of fuel and energy services.
The five dimensions of energy security include (UN, 2007): 1. Energy supply, 2. Economic, 3. Technological, 4. Environmental, Social and cultural, 5. Military/security dimensions
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Import dependence (of 217 countries)
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Disparity in World Energy Consumption
75% of world population use 20% electricity
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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World Population, GDP and Energy Demand until 2030.
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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WHETHER ON EARTH HAS ENOUGH RESOURCES TO MEET THE GROWTH OF ALL NEEDS?
OR WE HAVE TO CHANGE OUR HABITS!
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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World challenges and interrelations
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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How much energy for 1 kWh of electricity?
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Sustainable Development
Brundtland definition (1987)
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”
This implies that “secure” over the long term = “sustainable”
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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DRIVERS for SD – ENERGY SECTOR SPECIFIC
ENERGY SECURITY HIGH DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED FOSSIL
FUELS PRICE - AFFORDABILITY ACCESSIBILITY RELIABILITY ADVERSE IMPACTS Energy market impacts
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Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Dimensions of Sustainable Energy Development
EconomicState
EconomicState
SocialState
SocialState
EnvironmentalState
EnvironmentalState
State of energy sector
Impact from energy
sector
Impact from energy
sector
Responses of institutional Dimension
Institutional State
Sustainability is about overlapping environmental, social and economic requirements and the need to bring them all into harmony.
• When they were first built and inhabited, all pre-industrial buildings were, by definition, sustainable and made zero use of fossil carbon in both their construction and use.
• The primary energy sources available for the conversion and transport of building materials were human and animal power, and the biomass of available locally grown timber.
• Building, heating and cooking were almost entirely fuelled by sustainably sourced biomass.
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Energy Efficiency has one of main
role in Sustainable Development
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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TODAY POLICIES
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS ONE OF MAIN
PILLAR OF ENERGY STRATEGIES
PRACTICALLY IN ALL COUNTRIES IN THE
WORLD (DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING)
• High energy costs• Rising (energy) costs• “EE Cheapest form of energy you can get”• Competitiveness
• High energy costs• Rising (energy) costs• “EE Cheapest form of energy you can get”• Competitiveness
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Influence of improved energy efficiency on other policies’ goals
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Climate Change
Mitigation
Improved Security of
Energy Supply
Economic Development
(Energy) Poverty
Alleviation
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY
3 components of energy efficiency programme
1. Economical & Financial
2. Technical
3. Human and organizational
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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How energy efficiency improvements have reduced EU energy intensity during the past 35 years:
It demonstrates that by 2005, “negajoules” (or avoided energy consumption through savings) have become the single most important energy resource.
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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“The EU is not on track to meet its target – energy efficiency”
European Commission: “Most recent projections show that with current
policies we will only achieve a 10% cut.” (4 February 2011)
Source: European Commission* Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses
- 20% by 2020 objective
- 368 Mtoe
Most recent projection
- 166 Mtoe
Business as usual
2007 projection
Pri
ma
ry e
ne
rgy
co
ns
um
pti
on
*, M
toe
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
2005 2010 2015 2020
1676 Mtoe
1842 Mtoe
1474 Mtoe
Projections from 2007Projections from 200920% energy saving objective
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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EE policy development in Croatia
• The ENERGY Strategy is based on a paradigm that
efficient use of energy is observed as a “new source of energy” («negajoules» concept);
• The goal of the Strategy is to reduce the energy
consumption by implementing cost-effective measures of energy efficiency.
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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One of the strategic goals defined in Energy Sector Sustainable Development Strategy is improvement of energy efficiency in every part of energy sector
• Why energy efficiency?– Environmental sustainability
• reduction of environmental impacts of energy production climate change– Economic sustainability
• improved industrial competitiveness due to reduced production costs• improved security of energy supply by reducing dependence on imported energy, lowering
risks of energy supply disruptions and price fluctuations• reduced necessity for new power generation facilities
– Social sustainability• improved living and working conditions • job creation as a spin-off effect of implementation of energy efficiency measures
Energy Efficiency
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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EE policy development in Croatia
Energy sector development strategy until 2020 (adopted October 2009)
National EE programme 2008-2016 (adopted April 2010)
First NEEAP 2008-2010 (adopted April 2010)
Second NEEAP 2011-2013
(adopted February 2013)
Master Plan 2007
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Strategic vision: EE as source of energy
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PJ
BAU scenario Energy efficiency measures implementation scenario
Savings 2016: 19.77 PJ
Savings 2020: 22.76 PJ
“EE improvement in all parts of energy system is a backbone of the Strategy.”
Detailed measures are defined in National EE programme and NEEAPs
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Preparation of 2nd NEEAP: principles and steps
• Qualitative (key success/failure factors)
• Quantitative (achieved energy savings)
Evaluation of 1st NEEAP
• Energy sector• End-use sectors• Horizontal (cross-
sector)
(Re)definition of sector measures
• Expected savings• Plans of energy
companies• Ex-ante M&V• Modelling
• Other impacts?
Evaluation of expected results
FER leader for 1. and 2. NEEAP
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Successful measures in period 2008-2010No. EEI measure Evaluation of implementation Achieved
savings in 2010 [PJ]
Status in 2nd NEEAP
HouseholdsB.1 Building codes Implemented as envisaged 1,52 Revised
R.1 Info campaigns and EE info centers network Implemented as envisaged N/A Revised
R.2 Energy Efficiency Labelling of Appliances Implemented as envisaged N/A Revised
E.1 Individual metering and billing Partially implemented (not in the desired extent) 0,01 Revised
R.3 Financial subventions for physical persons Partially implemented (not in the desired extent) 0,003 Revised
ServicesB.1 Building codes Implemented as envisaged 0,64 Revised
B.2 Energy audits of boilers and air-conditioning systems Not implemented (regulation enforced in 2011) / Revised
R.1 Info camapign Implemented as envisaged N/A RevisedP.1 EMS in cities and counties Implemented as envisaged 0,33 Continued
P.2 House in order Implemented as envisaged 0,21 Continued
C.1 EMS in commercial services Not implemented as envisaged (only subventions from the Funds)
0,01 Revised
B.3 Certifikacija zgrada Implemented as envisaged N/A Continued
P.3 “Green” public procurement Not implemented as envisaged (some activities in 2010)
0 Revised
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Unsuccessful measures in period 2008-2010
No. EEI measure Evaluation of implementation Achieved savings in 2010 [PJ]
Status in 2nd NEEAP
IndustrijaI.1 Industrial energy efficiency network Not implemented 0 RevisedI.2 Voluntary agreements scheme Not implemented 0 Abandoned and
integrated in I.5I.3 Energy audits scheme Implemented but only through
subventions0,03 Revidirana
I.4 High efficient CHP Implemented as envisaged / ContinuedI.5 CO2 fee Partially implemented 0,57 RevisedPrometT.1 Intorduction of EU standards Partially implemented 0 AbandonedT.2 Info campaign on efficient driving Not implemented 0T.3 Promotion of sustainable traffic systems Not implemented as envisaged
(only subventions from the Fund)0,01
T.4 Promotion of clean vehicles Implemented, but not sufficiently 0,07
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Achieved energy savings in 2010
National indicative target in 2016 (PJ) 19,77National intermediate indicative target in 2010 (PJ) 6,53
Sector division of target
Sector target (PJ)
Achieved energy savings in 2010 (PJ)
Estimated energy savings in 2016 (PJ)
2010 2016Total(TD)
From measures
(BU)
Total(TD)
From measures
(BU+MAED)Residential 2,24 6,72 4,43 1,53 12,64 9,58Services 1,25 3,76 0,33 1,32 4,50 3,85Industry 1,12 3,36 1,21 0,60 4,93 1,99Transport 1,98 5,93 0,46 0,08 16,60 3,22Total: 6,59 19,77 6,43 3,53 38,66 18,64
Percentage (%)(compared to ESD reference consumption)
3% 9% 2,9% 1,6% 17,6% 8,5%
BU - bottom-up
TD – top-down
MAED model - Model for Analysis of Energy Demand
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Visibility, public awareness … hard to measure!
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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2nd NEEAP
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Approach in (re)definition of measures: Synergy
Energy savings
(emission reduction, security of supply,
international commitment)
Improved standard of
living
(indoor quality, energy poverty)
Economic recovery
(employment, entrepreneurshi
p)
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Existing buildings: key issue in 2nd NEEAP
National plan for renovation of residential buildings 149.38 million square meters of useful surfaces 1% renovated annually (1.5 million m2) Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund
National plan for renovation of public buildings 9.58 million square metres of useful surfaces 5% renovated annually (479,000 m2) HBOR and ESCO market
National plan for renovation of commercial buildings 32.80 million square meters of useful surface 3% renovated annually (0.98 million m2) HBOR and ESCO market
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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2nd NEEAP: other important areas
Energy sector Oil, gas, electricity and heat
Further strengthening of energy performance of buildings regulation Financial aid to physical persons (thermal insulation, RES, appliances,
vehicles) Industrial energy efficiency network Transport!
Eco-driving
Public transport – infrastructure development
E-mobility
Obligation scheme for suppliers To be proposed?
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Challenges in implementing NEEAPs
Further legal developments EED transposition!
Implementing capacities Capacities in competent ministry
Implementing institutions
Monitoring and evaluation M&V system
Co-financing Dispersed not programmed
Commercial banks
Entrepreneurship EE not recognised as business
interest
Underdeveloped ESCO market
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Cost-optimal levels in Historical Towns!?
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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For the Discussion1. How much energy do we need?
2. How much of energy efficiency potential is still to grasp?
3. And why is energy efficiency so hard to pursue?
4. Is it more costly to invest on energy or energy efficiency?
5. What is the worrying trend? (Energy consumption, population growth, life style improvement)
6. What have we learnt from the past?
7. Energy is too cheap to be worth saving
8. Time consuming and delivered in small packages
9. Behavioural change– The more you consume the cheaper it gets– Energy efficiency has improved (for example for fridges by 75%)– Size of average unit increased & Ownership has dramatically
increased
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing - FER
FER-ZG LIVING LAB: Smart City Zagreb
STRATEGIC GOALS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FER: SAFE, CLEAN AND EFFICIENT ENERGY with emphasis on: renewable
energy, advanced energy networks, energy efficiency and ecology; information and communication technology to manage energy systems and their efficiency;
SMART INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION, ADAPTED TO ENVIRONMENT with emphasis on: electric and hybrid vehicles, intelligent systems for managing vehicles and traffic, communications infrastructure and services in the transportation systems;
Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
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Thank you for attention!
Prof.dr.sc. Željko TomšićUniversity of Zagreb
Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing