demonstration of the wcsp, ridb, rrdb, gis applications ...wcsp.eu/wcsp/cases_files/d1.4.2 demo wcsp...

© 2010 PREPARED The European Commission is funding the Collaborative project ‘PREPARED Enabling Change’ (PREPARED) within the context of the Seventh Framework Programme 'Environment'.All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a database or retrieval system, or published, in any form or in any way, electronically, mechanically, by print, photoprint, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from the publisher

Demonstration of the

WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon

COLOPHON

Title

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in

Lisbon.

Report number

PREPARED 2013.023

Deliverable number

D1.4.2

Author(s)

Maria Adriana Cardoso, Maria do Céu Almeida, Paula Vieira, Ana Luís, Basílio Martins, José Martins, Conceição David, Maria João Telhado, Sofia Baltazar,

Fernando Fernandes, Rita Alves, Vanessa Martins, Paula Aprisco, Alexandre

Rodrigues

Quality Assurance

Rafaela Matos

Acknowledgments

Vítor Martins, Cecília Alexandre, Maria José Franco, Luís Simas, Maria Emília

Castela, José Gato, Pedro Botelho, José Sá Fernandes, Lília Azevedo, Célia Reis, Pedro Póvoa, António Frazão.

This report is:

R = Restricted

Demonstration of the WCSP, RIDB, RRDB, GIS applications for risk assessment in Lisbon.

© PREPARED - 2 - 30 December 2013

Summary

In the scope of WA1 and WA2 of PREPARED Project, testing of the proposed

Water Cycle Safety Plan Framework developed by Almeida et al. (2010)

(D.2.1.1) was carried out as a demonstration in the city of Lisbon, Portugal.

The demonstration started from the whole urban area relevant to Lisbon and

was detailed to the Alcântara catchment, the largest catchment in Lisbon.

This report describes the implementation process, detailing the work for the

integrated level, and giving a summary of developments at system level. Examples of the results obtained are presented to illustrate the application.

The initial proposed methodology was followed and those steps where

implementation difficulties were identified contributed to improve the

proposed framework resulting in the final framework described in Almeida et

al. (2013d).



Contents

1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 8

2 Case study description ................................................................................. 10

2.1 Lisbon demonstration city ........................................................................................................ 10

2.2 Alcântara catchment................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.1 Relevance and general description 13 2.2.2 Water supply system description 14 2.2.3 Sewer system description 16

3 Implementation of the WCSP at the integrated level ................................. 26

3.1 WCSP 1. Commitment and establishment of water cycle safety policy and scope... 26 3.1.1 Project team 26 3.1.2 Participant stakeholders description 28 3.1.3 Team coordinator 30 3.1.4 Team modus operandi 31 3.1.5 Scope of WCSP 33 3.1.6 Time frame to develop the WCSP 33 3.1.7 Formal requirements 34 3.1.8 Water cycle safety policy 36 3.1.9 Criteria for subsequent risk analysis 36

3.2 WCSP 2. Urban water cycle characterisation .................................................................... 37 3.2.1 Water cycle description and flow diagram 37

3.3 WCSP 3. Preliminary risk identification in the water cycle ........................................... 38 3.3.1 Supporting tools 38 3.3.2 Relevant hazards 39 3.3.3 Potential events, risk sources and risk factors 40

3.4 WCSP 4. Preliminary risk analysis and evaluation in the water cycle......................... 43 3.4.1 Supporting tools 43 3.4.2 Likelihood and consequences for each event 44 3.4.3 Level of risk and risk evaluation for each event 46

3.5 WCSP 5. Development of system safety plans (SSP) ....................................................... 47

3.6 WCSP 6. Integrated risk analysis and evaluation............................................................. 47

3.7 WCSP 7. Integrated risk treatment ...................................................................................... 47 3.7.1 Supporting tools 47 3.7.2 Risk reduction measures 48 3.7.3 Comparison, prioritization and selection of risk reduction measures, risk treatment

program and assessment of residual risk 50

3.8 WCSP 8. Management and communication programs and protocols WCSP 9. Monitoring and review.............................................................................................................. 50

4 Achievements and lessons learned ............................................................ 54

References .................................................................................................................... 56

Annex 1 Characterization of the example events from Table 7 ........................... 58



List of figures

Figure 1 – Lisbon demonstration city location ..................................................................... 10

Figure 2 – Lisbon urban area and water systems................................................................. 11

Figure 3 – Lisbon demonstration city ..................................................................................... 11

Figure 4 – Changes in precipitation ........................................................................................ 12

Figure 5 – Examples of rainfall related problems in Lisbon .............................................. 12

Figure 6 – Alcântara catchment in Lisbon ............................................................................. 14

Figure 7 – Lisbon water supply system ................................................................................. 15

Figure 8 – Alcântara water supply system and DMAs....................................................... 15

Figure 9 – Alcântara stormwater and wastewater system ................................................. 16

Figure 10 – Alcântara original hydrologic model ................................................................ 17

Figure 11 – Alcântara wetlands system ................................................................................. 18

Figure 12 – Types of cross-sections ......................................................................................... 19

Figure 13 – Oval cross section .................................................................................................. 19

Figure 14 – Rectangular and inverted U cross section ........................................................ 19

Figure 15 – Cross-handle arch and rectangular cross section shapes.............................. 20

Figure 16 – Caneiro de Alcântara ............................................................................................ 21

Figure 17 – Cross section of caneiro de Alcântara ............................................................... 21

Figure 18 – Confluence of the two branches of caneiro de Alcântara ............................. 22

Figure 19 – Areas of the Alcântara subsystem ..................................................................... 23

Figure 20 – Alcântara WWTP ................................................................................................... 24

Figure 21 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events location ................................... 31

Figure 22 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events characterisation .................... 32

Figure 23 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk reduction measures location .......... 33

Figure 24 – Water systems for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case ................... 37

Figure 25 – Water cycle flow diagram .................................................................................... 38

Figure 26 – Tools developed to support the application of the WCSP framework

(Almeida et al., 2013a) .............................................................................................. 39

Figure 27 – Vulnerability to flooding in Lisbon ................................................................... 42

Figure 28 – Direct tidal effect in Lisbon ................................................................................. 42

Figure 29 – Risk identification and evaluation - risk events location .............................. 43



List of tables

Table 1 – WC level team composition .................................................................................... 27

Table 2 –Meetings for the development of the WCSP ........................................................ 31

Table 3 – Timeframe for developing WCSP at integrated level........................................ 34

Table 4 – Discharge requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP .......... 35

Table 5 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in

washing ....................................................................................................................... 35

Table 6 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in

irrigation ..................................................................................................................... 36

Table 7 – Examples of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors

identified for Alcântara............................................................................................ 41

Table 8 – Examples of likelihood and consequence classification for the Alcântara

events ........................................................................................................................... 45

Table 9 – Examples of risk class for the Alcântara events.................................................. 46

Table 10 – Examples of risk reduction measures identified for Alcântara ..................... 49

Acronyms

DMA Demand management areas

ERP Emergency response plan

RMF Risk management framework

RMP Risk management process

RRM Risk reduction measure

SOP Standard operating procedures

SSP System safety plan

RIDB Risk identification database

RRDB Risk reduction database

WCSP Water cycle safety plan

WSP Water safety plan



1 Introduction

Potential effects of climate dynamics on the urban water cycle can involve the

aggravation of existing conditions as well as the occurrence of new hazards or

risk factors. The challenges created by climate changes require an integrated

approach for dealing with existing and expected levels of risk. Given the interactions of urban water and natural systems, adaptation measures should

address all water cycle components and their interactions (Almeida et al.,

2013a).

The Urban Water Cycle (UWC) often involves several stakeholders dealing with specific systems of the cycle such as water supply, wastewater and

stormwater systems and water bodies. Therefore, risk management in the

UWC can be beneficial allowing an integrated approach to incorporate the

interdependencies between systems.

The application of the initial WCSP framework described in deliverable D.2.1.1 (Almeida et al., 2010) to the cities allowed a validation of the

methodology itself as well as of the tools developed within PREPARED to

support the application (e.g., risk identification database, risk reduction

database). The initial framework was followed and during the implementation process some opportunities for improvement of the initial

WCSP framework were identified, resulting in the final framework described

in deliverable D.2.1.4 (Almeida et al., 2013a).

This report describes the implementation process, detailing the work for the

integrated level, and giving a summary of developments at system level. Examples of the results obtained are presented to illustrate the application.





2 Case study description

2.1 Lisbon demonstration city

The proposed Water Cycle Safety Plan (WCSP) framework was applied to the

demonstration city of Lisbon (Figure 1), for testing and validation of the

framework as well as of the tools developed to facilitate implementation of WCSP.



Figure 1 – Lisbon demonstration city location

Lisbon is a historic major European harbour city with a rich built heritage. It

is the administrative capital of Portugal, seat of most national political

institutions and major administration bodies, and an important centre for

business and services, of national and international relevance.

The city of Lisbon has around 550 000 inhabitants (2011), occupying an area of about 85 km2, a population density around 6500 inhabitants/km2 (Figure 2).

Lisbon municipality has administrative boundaries with three other

municipalities and a densely occupied riverfront with 19 km long, facing the

estuary, approximately 5 NM from open sea as presented in Figure 3

(Telhado et al., 2014).

Lisbon city is located along the northern side of the Tagus river mouth. The

Tagus estuary is one of the largest in Europe and is exposed to receiving

several urban and agricultural pollutant loads. The river Tagus is an

international river, being a large part of the catchment in Spain, and has several dams that allowed controlling floods in an effective way.



Figure 2 – Lisbon urban area and water systems

Image source: http://www.visitlisboa.com/SubToolBar/FOTOS/Lisboa-Zona-Ribeirinha.aspx

Figure 3 – Lisbon demonstration city

Lisbon has a temperate climate, classified as Mediterranean climate, and is

characterised by dry and hot summers and wet and fresh winter periods.

The climate change trends are average air temperature increase, decrease of

annual and non-wet season rainfall, increase of wet-season rainfall and of

frequency of intense rainfall events (Figure 4), average sea level rise, and

increase of frequency of coastal floods.



Relative change in the seasonal precipitation amounts in Winter (DJF) (Dankers & Hiederer, 2008)

Observed changes in annual precipitation 1961-2006 (mm per decade) (ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org), ECA&D

(http://eca.knmi.nl))

Figure 4 – Changes in precipitation

Lisbon main issues (Figure 5) and challenges related with climate change are

the following:

Increase of runoff flows and associated risks;

Flooding and overflows resulting from limited hydraulic capacity of the

sewer network;

Meteorological droughts that can severely impact drinking water

consumption;

Water quality deterioration in natural water bodies especially relevant for

recreational uses resulting from sewer systems wet weather overflows

and dry weather permanent discharges;

Impacts on WWTP from I/I increase reducing treatment efficiency.

Figure 5 – Examples of rainfall related problems in Lisbon

Lisbon sewer system is very complex. It includes combined, separate and partially separate sewers, dendritic and looped sewer networks, and sewers

of very different ages, dimensions and materials.



The water level in the Tagus estuary receiving waters is dominated by the ocean tide. During high tide, the downstream restrictions to flows in sewer

networks increase the risks of flooding at the lower Lisbon areas, during rain

events. This is also important since some urban areas in the Lisbon centre

have elevations of just 0.20 m above the maximum high tide.

On the other hand, as the Tagus estuary is intensively used all over the year for recreational activities, such as sailing, water quality is a crucial issue,

namely in terms of pathogenic concentrations and aesthetics.

2.2 Alcântara catchment

2.2.1 Relevance and general description

The implementation of WCSP at the integrated level in Lisbon was detailed to

the Alcântara catchment (Figure 6) with a total area of 6 300 ha, being 4 802 ha

within the Lisbon municipality, which corresponds to circa half of Lisbon’s

area.

The relevance of this area as case study is due to its wide range of interconnected systems, stakeholders and the vulnerability to extreme climate

events, as part of the urban area corresponding to an ancient riverbed.

Moreover, the proximity to the Tagus River and the fact of being the site for

the largest Wastewater Treatment Plant are reasons for this implementation.

The Alcântara catchment is integrated in the complex hydrographic network

of the municipality of Lisbon, being one of the most important watersheds

that flow into the Tagus River in the city of Lisbon. To this catchment flows

the rainwater drained by a part of the Municipality of Amadora (west side of

Lisbon) and also inside Lisbon, the neighbourhoods of Benfica, S. Domingos de Benfica, Carnide, Nossa Senhora de Fátima, Santo Condestável, Prazeres

and Alcântara.

Currently, with rare exceptions, natural streams in the Lisbon municipality

are not visible today. Constraints imposed by urbanization and the

consequent need for a structured stormwater and wastewater drainage led to changes in the paths, underground channelization or to landfill of some

streams that over time were still persisting.



Figure 6 – Alcântara catchment in Lisbon

2.2.2 Water supply system description

About 90 per cent of the supply comes from the Castelo do Bode dam, owned

by EDP (the Portuguese Company of Electricity). Within this sub-system,

water is treated at Asseiceira WTP, following a scheme comprising pre-

chlorination, mineralization, coagulation/flocculation, flotation, oxidation (ozone), filtration, pH adjustment and final disinfection (chlorine) (Figure 7).

This WTP, built in 1987 with a capacity to treat 500 000 m3/day, was recently

enlarged to treat 625 000 m3/day, along with the introduction of flotation and

ozone into the treatment process (Luís et al., 2014).

The second largest water source is the river Tagus, with abstraction

undertaken at Valada Tagus (Figure 7). This water is pumped to Vale da

Pedra WTP, which has a nominal capacity of 240 000 m3/day.

The remaining water sources are Olhos de Água (since 1880), a spring from

limestone hills; Ota and Alenquer, also located on a limestone massif but the water being extracted from wells; Valadas and Lezírias, where the water is

abstracted from aquifers, the latter being the largest aquifer in the Iberic

Península (Tagus-Sado aquifer). All water sources are located in the Tagus

river basin.

Each day EPAL supplies 650 million litres of drinking water from the sources to the customers’ taps, through more than 2 100 kilometres of water mains, 43

pumping stations, 24 water tanks, 14 service reservoirs and about 80 000

service connections. The Alcântara water system is part of this global system

and the studied DMA are presented in Figure 8.



Figure 7 – Lisbon water supply system

Figure 8 – Alcântara water supply system and DMAs

Castelo Bode reservoir

Valada abstraction

Asseiceira WTP

LISBON WATER

SUPPLY SYSTEM

Lisbon distribution network



2.2.3 Sewer system description

The Alcântara stormwater and wastewater systems serve an area of 6 300ha, a

population of 756 000 inhabitants, through a complex network having a total

length of about 774 km and an average sewer age of about 60 years. The study

area includes eleven sub-catchments in the west part of the city, connected to the interceptor system of the Alcântara WWTP (Figure 9) and is therefore

designated by Alcântara system (Telhado et al., 2014).

The stormwater system drains an area of about 4802 ha. Excluding the

Monsanto Forest Park, there is a high urban settlement with a significant level

of impervious area. In average the runoff coefficient is of 0.67.

Figure 9 – Alcântara stormwater and wastewater system

Based on the construction of the city hydrological model (Figure 10), it was

possible to simulate the original natural hydrographical network and limit the corresponding catchments.



Figure 10 – Alcântara original hydrologic model

This model allows identifying the main endpoints of accumulation (mouth), regardless of the advancement of the shore line.

The stormwater network is rather complex but in a good part coincides with

the natural network layout. The main exceptions are in the areas of Campo

Grande and Lumiar, where the sewer networks drain wastewater and stormwater to another catchment of Chelas.

According to the current Lisbon Mater Plan, Lisbon has a classified wetlands

system (Figure 11) that corresponds to a set of areas whose characteristics,

hydrological and geomorphological (open and groundwater channels,

adjacent respective areas and basins receiving stormwater), pedological (alluvial zones) and geological (upwelling water) have high probability of

being covered temporarily by rainwater.



Figure 11 – Alcântara wetlands system

A large part of Lisbon’s sewer system is combined. However, especially since

1995, new developments have been planned with separate systems and today

there is about 27% of the area with separate networks, being 12% separate domestic and 15% separate stormwater.

In the oldest parts of the city, mainly downtown, combined system has a

higher expression, about 97%, especially in the sub-catchments of Terreiro do

Paço and Cais do Sodré. In the upstream parts, with a more recent

construction, as Benfica and Avenidas Novas, there is a higher incidence of separate systems but still connected to the downtown combined sewers.

Many of these systems are really functioning as combined due to the large

number of illegal or wrong connections to both stormwater and domestic

sewers (Telhado et al., 2014).

Most of the 774 km of existing sewers, about 64%, have circular cross section

(Figure 12). From these, the domestic sewers are mainly of stoneware ceramic

while for stormwater sewers the majority are of cement or concrete. Plastic

materials such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polypropylene corrugated

(PP) have been used in the past 30 years in both stormwater and domestic sewers.

The second more common cross section is the oval or ovoid with 29% (Figure

12). Most of these sewers, installed before 1950, are made of stone masonry

(Figure 13a) or, less usual, of brick. After 1950’s, the use of this section is less frequent and usually are oval reinforced concrete sewers. Often, this type of

cross section has a gutter, in some cases made of stoneware (Figure 13b).



Figure 12 – Types of cross-sections

a) Stone masonry sewer b) Sewer with gutter

Figure 13 – Oval cross section

Regarding the remaining cross section shape, only rectangular sewers (Figure

14a) have some representativeness of about 5%. The sewers in “saimel”, about

1%, generally have inverted U section (Figure 14b) or, in few cases, oval cross section (Figure 13a). These sewers are characteristic of the Baixa Pombalina

area (Telhado et al., 2014).

a) Stone sewer b) “Saimel” sewer

Figure 14 – Rectangular and inverted U cross section

Baixa Pombalina was the first part of Lisbon having a sewer network. It was

completely rebuilt after the earthquake of 1st November 1755. The sewers of

this area of the city, built by demand of Marquis of Pombal, prime minister of

King Joseph I, are known as “saimel”, designation of the bricks built with limestone.

Cross-handle arch

Rectangular

Circular

Oval/Ovoid

Inverted U



The cross-handle arch section (Figure 15a) is used when there is any limitation on the installation depth. It is usually made of reinforced concrete

and there are about 3900 meters of these sewers in the catchment.

The rectangular section (Figure 15b) is generally used in large sewers and is

mostly made of in situ reinforced concrete or prefabricated elements. The

extension of these sewers in the catchment does not reach 2500 meters.

The majority of sewers, about 85%, are non-man-entry, having vertical

dimension or diameter of less than 1800 mm. Sewers with smaller dimensions

usually have circular sections. In this type of section, the percentage of man-

entry sewers is less than 1%. Man-entry sewers can have very different cross sections. Non-man-entry sewers rarely have vertical dimension less than 1000

mm. Finally, the cross-handle arch section and “saimel” sewers, although less

common, have a significant percentage of man-entry sections.

a) Cross-handle arch section b) Rectangular section

Figure 15 – Cross-handle arch and rectangular cross section shapes

The caneiro of Alcântara is the main sewer of the Alcântara catchment

draining an area of 3100 ha, about 65% of the total Alcântara subsystem area.

It has approximately 10 km length, starting near Portas de Benfica and

developing toward the southwest, crossing the neighbourhoods of Benfica

and S. Domingos de Benfica to the railway station of Campolide. At north of this site there is a confluence of a significant branch of Sete Rios,

corresponding to a catchment contribution of 323 ha corresponding to the

areas of Avenidas Novas, Entre Campos, Campo Pequeno, Hospital de S.

Maria, Sete Rios e Praça de Espanha. Downstream this sewer develops to the

south until the Tagus River near the Gare Marítima de Alcântara (Figure 16).



Figure 16 – Caneiro de Alcântara

The caneiro de Alcântara is mostly made of concrete and with a purpose

designed cross-section, consisting of a parabolic arch with 0.45 meters

thickness supported on lateral walls, ending in two lateral blocks against which loads are transmitted to the support foundations. The invert has a 0.20

m thickness and has a central channel for dry weather flows, allowing man

circulation during dry weather periods in the lateral benches (Figure 17).

Figure 17 – Cross section of caneiro de Alcântara

Rehabilitated In rehabilitation

Rehabilitation planned



The cross section dimensions vary through eight types of sections. The smaller section is upstream (type VII), next to Portas de Benfica, has 4.66 m

wide by 3.00 m high. The downstream sections, between Campolide and

Alcantara railway stations (type I and II) have a width of 8.00 m by a height of

5.15 m. At the confluence of the branch of Sete Rios the section type VIII

reaches 14.00 m wide and 6.50 m high (Figure 18) (Telhado et al., 2014).

Braço de Benfica Braço de Sete Rios

Figure 18 – Confluence of the two branches of caneiro de Alcântara

The Alcântara subsystem is divided into an upstream and a downstream

areas (Figure 19a), using the treatment plant as reference. The downstream

area includes the entire river front, from Algés to Alfama, and is divided into two drainage fronts: Algés-Alcântara and Alfama-Alcântara (Figure 19b).

This part of the wastewater system has eleven pumping stations to direct dry

weather flows to the treatment plant. The wastewater collected from these

two fronts arrives at pumping station 3 (PS3) for further pumping up to the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of Alcântara (Figure 19b).

The wastewater from Amadora and Lisbon’s upstream area flows to the

WWTP through the caneiro de Alcântara. The caneiro crosses the areas of

Falagueira, Benfica, Campolide and Av. de Ceuta, in a 10 km length (Figure

19a).

The Alcântara WWTP was designed to serve all the population of the area

encompassed by its subsystem i.e. 756 000 inhabitants equivalent, from the

Lisbon, Amadora and Oeiras municipalities, for 3.3 m3/s for dry weather flow

and a total flow of 6.6 m3/s to accommodate some wet weather flows. The average wastewater treated flow is around 130 000 to 140 000 m3/day.



a) Downstream and upstream areas

b) Downstream interceptor system

Figure 19 – Areas of the Alcântara subsystem

For the design of the WWTP several conditioning factors were taken into

account, among which are: the guarantee that the WWTP was fully

operational during the period of the adaptation and enlargement works; the

secondary treatment and disinfection would be obtained through the use of modern technologies that should be built in a confined space, affected and

surrounded by large infrastructures; the need to ensure the environmental

and landscape re-qualification of a facility located in an urban area (Figure 20)

(Martins et al., 2014).

Alcântara WWTP

Front Alfama-Alcântara

Front Algés-Alcântara

PS 3



(http://www.simtejo.pt)

Figure 20 – Alcântara WWTP



3 Implementation of the WCSP at the integrated level

3.1 WCSP 1. Commitment and establishment of water cycle safety policy and

scope

3.1.1 Project team

In order to assemble a team for the development of the WCSP all relevant

stakeholders were identified. Relevant stakeholders are those who can affect, or can be affected by, the activities carried out in relation with the water cycle.

A multi-stakeholder team was created for the water cycle level. Additionally,

it was created a team at each utility for development of the SSPs. One or more

members from these SSPs teams were represented in the water cycle level team.

A three level structure for the water cycle level team was adopted (Table 1)

comprising a core team, a second level team and a third level team.

The core team was composed by the water utilities (drinking water supply,

wastewater and stormwater systems), the Portuguese water and waste services regulator and LNEC as a research partner. This core team did the

main work of development of the WCSP demonstration.

A second level team was also planned. This team corresponds to an extended

working team composed by stakeholders that were regularly asked to contribute on specific issues and that could be involved in the

implementation of risk reduction measures: the Catchment Authority, the

Directorate General of Health, the Electrical Supplier and the Municipal Civil

Protection. Although the second level was not activated during the course of

the project, some representatives participated in the core team work. The representatives from the Municipal Civil Protection Department of Lisbon

actively contributed to the main work of developing the WCSP. The

representative from the Health Authority participated in all the core team

meetings and provided useful information for the development of work.

The third level includes stakeholders that, in a full scale implementation of

the WCSP, would provide information needed for the WCSP development

and that should be informed on developments of the whole WCSP process.

This team level was also not activated within the timeframe of the

PREPARED project. It included representatives from domestic customers, agents and association of consumers; Administration of the port of Lisbon;

Administration of railways infrastructure; Administration of railways service;

boroughs within the Alcântara catchment; neighbour water utilities, namely

Oeiras & Amadora water and wastewater municipal services; neighbour

municipalities, such as Oeiras municipality and Amadora municipality; Portuguese Environment Agency; and, communications providers.

A detailed description of each organization which had representatives in the

core team is made in section 3.1.2.



Table 1 – WC level team composition

Stakeholder name Relationship to system Number of

representatives

Core team members

EPAL Drinking water utility 3

SimTejo

Utility responsible for the

wastewater interception and

treatment system

3

CML – Lisbon

Municipality/Department of Construction Works and

Maintenance of Infrastructure

Utility responsible for the

wastewater and stormwater

collection systems

2

ERSAR – Regulator Authority Water and waste services

regulator 2

LNEC – Research Laboratory 3

2nd level team members

ARH – Catchment authority of

Lisbon and Tagus valley

Give info; Responsibility in

RRM implementation -

DGS – Directorate General of

Health


RRM implementation 1

CML-CPD – Municipal Civil

Protection Department


RRM implementation 2

EDP – Electrical Supplier Give info; Responsibility in

RRM implementation -

3rd level team members

Domestic customers/agents, association of consumers

Give info; To be informed of the WCSP process

-

APL – Administration of the port of Lisbon

Give info; To be informed of the WCSP process -

REFER – Administration of railways infrastructure


CP - Administration of railways service


Boroughs within the Alcântara

catchment

Give info; To be informed of

the WCSP process -

Oeiras & Amadora water and

wastewater municipal services


the WCSP process -

Oeiras Municipality Give info; To be informed of

the WCSP process -

Amadora Municipality Give info; To be informed of

the WCSP process -

APA – Portuguese

Environment Agency


the WCSP process -

PT, TMN, VODAFONE,

OPTIMUS - Communications providers


the WCSP process -



3.1.2 Participant stakeholders description

EPAL – Core team member

Founded in 1868 as CAL - Companhia das Águas de Lisboa, a privately

owned concession to supply water to Lisbon, it became a State owned

company in 1974, named EPAL. Since 1991, EPAL is a public limited

company, wholly owned by Águas de Portugal group.

EPAL provides drinking water to 2.9 million people (about one-quarter of the Portuguese population) in 35 municipalities, including Lisbon,

covering a region of around 5.4 km2. With approximately 700 staff, EPAL

has assets with a net fixed value of more than 900 million EUR (Luís et al.,

2014).

SimTejo– Core team member

SIMTEJO is a leading company operating in the environmental sector in Portugal and its mission is to contribute to the pursuit of national

objectives in the wastewater collection and treatment within a framework

of economic, financial, technical, social and environmental sustainability.

Its goal is to protect and value the natural and human environment: the

activities of the company include collection, treatment and disposal of urban and industrial wastewater, including its recycling and reuse in an

environmental safe manner. Sustainable use and preservation of natural

resources, equilibrium and improvement of the quality of the

environment, equity in access to public services and the promotion of well-being and people’s standards of living are fundamental values to

SimTejo.

SimTejo is the concessionary company of the Multi-municipal Sanitation

System of Rivers Tagus and Trancão. It was established in December 2001

with the main purpose of assuring the gathering and treatment of effluents originated in the hydrographic basins of river Trancão, in the

small right bank basins of Tagus Estuary, between Vila Franca de Xira

and Algés, and in the Mafra´s west streams, encompassing a total area of

about 1000 square kilometers. SimTejo exploits currently a system that includes 30 WWTP, 84 pumping stations and 271 km of main sewage

system, and treats around 118 Mm3/yr, serving a population of 1,5

million inhabitants in the north area of Lisbon (served municipalities:

Amadora, Lisboa, Loures, Odivelas, Mafra e Vila Franca de Xira). The

final system (to be finished by 2013) will include 31 WWTP, 95 pumping stations and 327 km of collectors (Martins et al., 2014).

Municipality of Lisbon – Core team member and second level team member

The Municipality of Lisbon is the executive body of the municipality and

its mission is to define and execute policies that may promote the

development of the city of Lisbon in different areas. There are six main

strategic questions faced by the future of the city, namely, how to socially recuperate, renovate and balance the population; how to turn Lisbon into

a friendly, safe and inclusive city for everyone; how to turn Lisbon into an

environmentally sustainable and energetically efficient city; how to



transform Lisbon into an innovative, creative city capable of competing in a global context, generating wealth and employment; how to assert the

identity of Lisbon, in a globalized World; how to create an efficient,

participatory and financially sustainable model of governance for Lisbon.

Within the scope of the Lisbon WCSP demonstration, two departments of

the Lisbon municipality participated, namely, Department of Construction Works and Maintenance of Infrastructure and Public Streets

and Civil Protection Department.

Department of Construction Works and Maintenance of Infrastructure

and Public Streets has an activity which objectives are assure the design, installation and maintenance of infrastructure and public streets,

coordinate the project design and works in public streets and

underground.

The Civil Protection Department (CPD) is a local authority on the

structure of the Lisbon Municipality. CPD is responsible for the management of the city during crisis and exceptional conditions and

works in articulation with the National and District Authorities for Civil

Protection. According to the Civil Protection Portuguese Law, the main

intervention areas are collective risk prevention, and their effects in case

of disaster or accident. CPD is responsible by the areas of risk analysis, emergency planning, public information, operations and training on Civil

Protection field and psychosocial support in daily emergency situations

and in case of big disasters.

The city of Lisbon joined the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Campaign 2010-2015, ”Making Cities Resilient: My

City is Getting Ready” in December 2010 in the sequence of the work

developed by the Civil Protection Department.

ERSAR – Core team member

ERSAR is the Water and Waste Services Regulation Authority in charge of

regulating public water supply services, urban wastewater management services and municipal waste management services.

Public water supply, urban wastewater management and municipal waste

management are public services essential to the well-being, public health

and, finally, collective security of the populations and economic activities,

as well as to the environment protection. These services must respect the principles of universal access, uninterrupted and high quality of service

and efficient and equitable prices. ERSAR aims to ensure adequate

protection of the water and waste sector consumers and users, avoiding

possible subsequent abuse of exclusive rights with regard to the guarantee and quality control of the public service provided, on the one

hand, and supervision and control of prices, on the other; to ensure equal

and clear conditions in the access to the water and waste services and the

operation of these services; reinforce the right to general information

about the sector and, more precisely, about each operator.

Regulation is essential due to the natural or legal monopoly situation of

these services. ERSAR established its own regulation model and regulates



over 500 operators. Although the authority of ERSAR depends on the Ministry of Agriculture, Sea, Environment and Spatial Planning

(MAMAOT), its financing comes from regulation fees and drinking water

control fees collected from the operators.

LNEC – Core team member

LNEC is the largest Portuguese applied research institute in the field of

civil engineering and related environmental areas, combining R&D with specialised consultancy and with general support to the industry. The

LNEC main goals are to carry out innovative R&D and to contribute to

the best practices in civil engineering in the scope of public works,

infrastructures, housing and town-planning, water resources, transports,

environment, building materials industry and other building products. LNEC has carried out studies in more than 40 countries, in all continents,

within the framework of R&D studies and advanced technological

consultancy.

LNEC has a long-term applied research experience in the fields of urban

water, both nationally and internationally, based on multidisciplinary approaches and multi-stakeholders R&D projects, with joint teams with

the utilities, including broad consortia and strategic platforms, at

European and international levels. LNEC’s Urban Water Division (NES)

performs leading-edge research in areas such risk management, urban water cycle safety planning, infrastructure asset management, monitoring,

mathematical modelling, early-warning systems, performance

assessment, efficient water and energy use, GIS.

LNEC is the Portuguese research partner and acted as coordinator of the

development of the WCSP demonstration activities to Lisbon.

DGS – Directorate General of Health – Second level team member

The Directorate-General of Health (DGS) is a public body of the Ministry

of Health that positions itself as a reference for all those who think and

operate in the healthcare field. Its main areas of activity are to issue

clinical and organizational guidelines; to guide and develop programmes

of Public health, improved healthcare and total clinical and organizational quality management; to coordinate and assure national epidemiological

surveillance; to prepare and publish health statistics; to support the

activities of the National Public Health Officer; to coordinate the Public

Health Emergencies System; to monitor the National Health Service Contact Centre; to prepare and assure the execution of the National

Health Plan; to coordinate the European and international relations of the

Ministry of Health; to regulate and monitor the compliance with safety

and quality standards of blood, tissues and organs.

DGS is focused on citizens’ interests, in cooperation with other public bodies, particularly those accountable to the Ministry of Health.

3.1.3 Team coordinator

The team was coordinated by the research partner LNEC.



3.1.4 Team modus operandi

In order to develop the WCSP process, the team worked together in a total of

51 periodic meetings (see Table 2, Figure 21, Figure 22 and Figure 23).

Additionally, each stakeholder developed most of the work between

meetings. The results from this work were presented to the whole group in the following meeting.

The planning of the work for each WCSP step was made by the team

coordinator in agreement with the other participants. Each meeting was

dedicated to one or two WCSP steps, so that all steps could be covered within

the PREPARED project timeframe.

For each team meeting, the team coordinator prepared the meeting agenda,

the presentations and reported on the meeting.

At the integrated level, meetings had a monthly average frequency. SSPs

related meetings took place between integrated level meetings sometimes

with higher frequency.

Documents circulated by e-mail among stakeholders and working files

(reports, excel forms, data files, etc.) were shared through Dropbox.

Table 2 –Meetings for the development of the WCSP

Level Meetings*

Integrated level 13 meetings:

20-12-2011

31-01-2012, 13-03-2012, 27-04-2012, 21-06-2012, 17-10-2012, 11-12-2012

23-01-2013, 24-05-2013, 25-09-2013, 30-10-2013, 20-11-2013, 11-12-2013

System level – SSP EPAL 10 meetings

System level – SSP SimTejo 17 meetings

System level – SSP CML 10 meetings

*Not including preliminary work meetings

Figure 21 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events location



Figure 22 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk events characterisation



Figure 23 – Lisbon demonstration meeting – risk reduction measures location

3.1.5 Scope of WCSP

The WCSP was developed considering the following systems, which are

described in detail in section 0:

drinking water system;

wastewater system;

stormwater system;

non-drinking water system.

The WCSP focused on risks in the urban water cycle that are climate change

related. As previously mentioned only risks associated with the Alcantâra

catchment were dealt with.

3.1.6 Time frame to develop the WCSP

Preliminary work began in January 2011 and was carried out by LNEC. This

work consisted in the identification of relevant stakeholders, initial contacts

and invitations and individual meetings with each of the stakeholders, for

presentation of PREPARED and discussion about their participation in the

project. During this period research developments on the WCSP framework and tools were also carried out.

Subsequently, PREPARED demonstration activities proceeded according to

the time frame in Table 3 and started in December 2011 with a kick-off

meeting with all stakeholders. It was necessary to make some adjustments to

the initial planning because, in some steps, the work required additional time to be correctly developed.



Table 3 – Timeframe for developing WCSP at integrated level

Task

Mo

nth

1

Mo

nth

2

Mo

nth

3

Mo

nth

4

Mo

nth

5

Mo

nth

6

Mo

nth

7

Mo

nth

8

Mo

nth

9

Mo

nth

10

Mo

nth

11

Mo

nth

12

Mo

nth

13

Mo

nth

14

Mo

nth

15

Mo

nth

16

Mo

nth

17

Mo

nth

18

Mo

nth

19

Mo

nth

20

Mo

nth

21

Mo

nth

22

Mo

nth

23

Mo

nth

24

Mo

nth

25

Aft

er

mo

nth

25

Commitment

and establishment of

water cycle

safety policy and scope

Urban water cycle

characterisation

Risk

identification in the water cycle

Risk analysis and evaluation

in the water

cycle

Development of

system safety plans

Risk treatment

Management

and communication

programs and

protocols

Monitoring and

review

3.1.7 Formal requirements

Drinking water system

EPAL is regulated by the national water services regulator ERSAR that requires the yearly assessment of the quality of service provided by the

water utilities to the users, establishing levels of service through the

application of a set of 16 performance indicators (Alegre et al., 2012).

Drinking water quality has to comply with the Portuguese

Decree-law 306/2007 that establishes maximum admissible values for a set of chemical and microbiological parameters and also defines

responsibilities of the several stakeholders involved in the management of

supply systems. The quality of water sources used for the production of

drinking water has to comply with the Portuguese Decree-law 236/98 (Luís et al., 2014).



Wastewater system

Lisbon Municipality and SimTejo are regulated by the national water

services regulator ERSAR (see 3.1.2) that requires yearly the assessment of

the quality of service provided to the users, establishing levels of service

through the application of a set of 16 performance indicators (Alegre et al.,

2012).

The SimTejo regulation, to be developed until 15th October each year, as

established by Portaria 34/2011, shall also be considered.

The WWTP water resources title (APA issued) license

n. 2012.000241.0010.T.L.RJ.DAR establishes the discharges requirements for the treated wastewater in the receiving water body Tagus Estuary

(Table 4). The treated wastewater is submitted to a battery of analysis to

verify compliance with the discharge requirements (Martins et al., 2014).

Table 4 – Discharge requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP

Parameter Emission limit value

(VLE)

SST (total suspended solids) 35 mg/l

BOD (biochemical oxygen demand) 25 mg/l

COD (chemical oxygen demand) 125 mg/l

Stormwater system

Lisbon Municipality is regulated by ERSAR that requires yearly the assessment of the quality of service provided to the users, establishing

levels of service through the application a set of 16 performance indicators

(Alegre et al., 2012).

Non-drinking water system

At the national level only the use of treated urban wastewater for irrigation is regulated through the Decree - Law n. 236/98, of 1 of August

and EN 4434/2005.

The Lisbon and Tagus Valley Regional Centre for Public Health recommends the requirements presented in Table 5 and

Table 6 for different uses (Santos et al., 2011).

Table 5 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in washing

Parameter/Type of use Streets washing Cars washing

Termotolerant Coliform

Bacteria (/100 mL) ≤ 200 ≤ 1000

Gastrointestinal Nematode

Eggs (egg/L)

≤ 0.1 ≤ 0.1



Table 6 – Requirements for treated wastewater in Alcântara WWTP for reuse in irrigation

Parameter/Type of use Public green areas Vegetable cultures

Faecal Coliforms - Maximum

Recommended Value (VMR)

200 NMP/100 mL

or ufc/100 mL

100 NMP/100 mL

or ufc/100 mL

Eggs and parasites -

Maximum Admissible Value

(VMA) (egg/L)

1 1

3.1.8 Water cycle safety policy

Given that the WCSP demonstration was set within a project, having in mind

the test and identification of opportunities for improving the framework proposal, a formal agreement was made between the participants to ensure

their involvement and also issues related with confidentiality and data

sharing.

3.1.9 Criteria for subsequent risk analysis

The definition of criteria to be used in the estimation and evaluation of risk, especially in the steps of risk analysis, evaluation and treatment was

developed from a first proposal from LNEC. After discussing them with the

team participants a common basis was agreed upon.

The selected method for risk identification was the one proposed in

PREPARED WA2 and the RIDB was used as a supporting tool. For risk estimation the risk matrix method was considered adequate. Likelihood,

consequence and risk scales were defined, considering 5, 5 and 3 classes,

respectively, as well as a matrix was selected. Legal, regulatory or other

formal requirements were taken in consideration for defining the likelihood and consequence scales.

The dimensions of consequence selected were: (1) Health and safety

(consumer, public, occupational); (2) Financial; (3) Service continuity; (4)

Environmental impacts; (5) Liability, compliance, reputation and image. For

the dimension (1) the metrics used were the number and severity of injuries of people affected by disease and the number of people affected permanently

(mortality and disability). For the dimension (2), the metric used was the

effect on the annual operating budget. In dimension (3), the metrics selected

were the duration of interruption of water supply services; the number of

client.hours of service loss, the bulk water supply service loss , the untreated wastewater discharge and the number of properties and area affected by

flooding. For dimension (4), the metrics for impact on water (surface,

ground), land, air, flora, fauna were expressed as expected recovery time and

severity of the damage. In the case of dimension (5) the metrics used were the number of complaints, the frequency of negative references to the utility in

the media and the frequency of lawsuits.



3.2 WCSP 2. Urban water cycle characterisation

3.2.1 Water cycle description and flow diagram

The water systems considered for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case

are presented in Figure 24.

Figure 24 – Water systems for the Lisbon - Alcântara demonstration case

Most water that supplies the Alcântara catchment comes from the Castelo do

Bode Dam, owned by EDP (Table 1). The Alcântara system is also supplied by

other sources: Tagus River, Ota abstraction, Alenquer abstraction and Lezírias abstraction. After being abstracted the bulk surface water is transported to the

Asseiceira and Vale da Pedra WTPs where it is treated (Luís et al., 2014).

Groundwater from Ota, Lezírias and Alenquer is treated at the abstractions’

sites. The treated water is transported in a transmission system to Telheiras,

Olivais and Barbadinhos water tanks, reaching the consumers tap through the distribution system in Alcântara basin (2.2.2).

The stormwater generated within the Alcântara catchment drains to the

combined sewer system (2.2.3). The domestic wastewater produced in the

upstream areas of the Alcântara catchment is collected by the wastewater sewer system, which is mostly combined, and is transported through the

main sewer caneiro de Alcântara to the Alcântara WWTP. The wastewater

from the downstream areas is collected and transported in an interceptor

sewer, with eleven pumping stations. The wastewater is pumped from the

interceptor to the WWTP (2.2.3). During rain periods, either when the combined system or the WWTP capacities are exceeded, combined sewer

overflows are discharged to the Tagus estuary.

Part of the treated wastewater from the Alcântara WWTP is discharged to the

Tagus estuary and part is reused for irrigation. The Tagus estuary, under the

responsibility of ARH (Table 1), is used for recreational activities (2.1). The diagram representing the water cycle flow is presented in Figure 25.

The main interactions between the different systems in the water cycle

reported by the stakeholders are:

source water and drinking water system;

collection and interception system;

LisbonWaterCycleSafetyPlan

Water supplyEPALWSP & SSP

Wastewater interception/ treatmentSIMTEJOSSP

Drainage combined/ / separate sewersLisbon municipality

CatchmentARH Tejo Catchment authority



domestic and stormwater system;

wastewater and non-drinking water system;

wastewater system and receiving waters;

stormwater system and receiving waters.

Figure 25 – Water cycle flow diagram

3.3 WCSP 3. Preliminary risk identification in the water cycle

3.3.1 Supporting tools

Different supporting tools were used during the risk identification step. These

tools were developed within the PREPARED project (Figure 26) and tools that

support risk identification are briefly described as follows:

Fault trees tool (SFTWC) - provide a means to schematise the ways a

hazardous event can occur. This tool provides a set of 20 fault trees (one

for each hazard identified within PREPARED), in order to facilitate the

task of WCSP events identification either at integrated or system level Almeida et al. (2013b). The qualitative fault trees provided within

PREPARED support tool are generic. Thus, the basic events were further

detailed and applied for the Alcântara water cycle integrated and

systems’ levels of application.

Wastewater from Oeiras,

Amadora and Lisboa

Interception system

Alcantara wastewater treatment

plant

Non drinking water system

Treated wastewater reuse for irrigation and

streets and equipment

cleaning

SIMTEJO wastewater utility

Receiving water body: Tejo river

Wastewater and

stormwater from Oeiras

and Amadora

Collection system

Discharge in receiving water body

CML wastewater utility

Wastewater and

stormwater from Lisboa

Recreational uses

Discharge in receiving water body

Source waters

Raw water Water

treatment plants

Treated waterAlcantara distribution

systemDrinking

water

EPAL water utilityStored water

Caneiro de Alcântara

Stormwater from

Alcântara

Collection system



Risk identification database (RIDB) – this database provides a ‘checklist’ of known risks based on industry knowledge and lessons learned from

historical events. RIDB characterizes more than 100 events for the water

cycle integrated and systems’ levels application, providing information on

event description; associated hazards, risk sources, contributing causes,

existing measures to reduce risk, risk factors and typical consequences dimensions, system component where risk source occurs and system

component where exposure occurs. For each event, information on the

expected impacts of climate change indicators and effects is also given

(Almeida et al., 2011a; Almeida et al., 2013b, Almeida et al., 2013c). Using RIDB the generic events had to be detailed and characterised for the

Alcântara water cycle integrated and systems’ levels application.

Risk analysis form (RA_Form) – this form, in excel format, was created

during the development of the Lisbon case study to register the events

that were identified in this demo. For each event, information to be registered includes: event description, hazards, risk sources, contributing

causes, measures to reduce risk (existing measures and additional

measures), risk factors, system component where risk source occurs,

system component where exposure occurs, expected impacts of climate

change, probability (class and justification of selected class) and consequence (class for each consequence dimension and justification of

selected class). Based on probability and consequence, the form

automatically calculates the event risk.

Risk analysis registry (RAR) – this template is used to register information that characterizes the events identified in the demo. Each event has

associated one record sheet registering essentially the same information

included in the RA_Form but in a word format more suitable for

reporting.

Risk identification database (RIDB)

Set of fault trees for hazardous events

identified for the water cycle (SFTWC)

List of relevant hazards identified for urban

water systems (LHWC)

Risk reduction database (RRDB)

Template for risk analysis registry (RAR)

(MS WORD file)

Risk analysis form (RA form)

(MS EXCEL file)

(a) Database type tools (b) Registry type tools

Figure 26 – Tools developed to support the application of the WCSP framework (Almeida et al., 2013a)

3.3.2 Relevant hazards

A first identification of the relevant hazards was made looking at the whole

water cycle, considering the hazard checklist provided by the PREPARED

project (Almeida et al., 2010) and using the information compiled in Step 2,

the team members’ knowledge of the system, a site visit, previous risk studies

made by the Lisbon municipality and historical information. The following



hazards were considered to be relevant, at the integrated level, for the Alcântara system:

Extended periods without supply;

Presence of microbial pathogens in flooding water;

Presence of microbial pathogens in water used for irrigation;

Water infrastructure collapses or bursts potentially causing injuries to public;

High velocity runoff in public streets;

High depth flooding in public areas or private properties;

Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil;

Discharge of nutrients (P/N) in the water cycle;

Discharge of heavy metals and other chemicals in the water cycle or soil.

Due to resources limitations within the PREPARED project timeframe, it was

decided to focus the subsequent work on hazards for which information was more easily available to characterize the associated events:

Extended periods without supply;

High velocity runoff in public streets;

High depth flooding in public areas or private properties;

Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil.

3.3.3 Potential events, risk sources and risk factors

For each of the previously selected hazards, risk sources (elements which

alone or in combination have the intrinsic potential to give rise to risk), risk

factors (something that can have an effect on the risk level, by changing the

probability or the consequences of an event) and events (sequence of individual occurrences of consequences) were identified and characterized.

This work was carried out using the information compiled in Step 2, the team

members’ knowledge of the system, site visits, historical information and the

information provided by the PREPARED risk identification database, as well

as fault trees.

A total of 23 climate change related events were considered to be relevant at

the integrated level. These events were originated in the SSPs development

and are related to issues involving more than one stakeholder or are

associated with boundaries among the different systems. Some examples of

the identified events, risk sources and risk factors are presented in Table 7. The complete characterization of these example events is made in Annex 1.

The three main risk sources identified as relevant for Alcântara are related

with high precipitation intensity, decrease of precipitation/drought and

high river or sea level. In Lisbon, situations of high precipitation intensity usually occur during autumn and winter, but there are historical registers of

occurrences in other seasons. Problems associated with high river or sea level



occur mainly when high-tide coincides with high precipitation (that leads to direct flooding along the coastline and to the flow inversion in wastewater

systems that discharge in the Tagus river) and with storm surges. Examples

of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors identified for

Alcântara are presented in Table 7.

These risk sources (alone or in combination) can originate urban flooding in some critical areas of the city (Figure 27 and Figure 28) located near the

coastline, in valleys, in areas with low level or low slope and in areas that, in

the past, were streams or water courses.

Table 7 – Examples of the events and related hazards, risk sources and risk factors identified for Alcântara

Event ID

Event Hazard Risk sources Risk factors

E1

20

1.0

3

High velocity runoff in Luís de Camões street due to

intense rainfall (RP = 10 years) and to insufficient sewers

capacity resulting from high

river or sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to

property, disturbances in

services and activities

High velocity

runoff in public

streets

Occurrence of abnormal

metereologic phenomena (high

intensity rainfall)


hydrologic

phenomena (high river or sea level)

Human physical

vulnerability Social and

economic

vulnerability Infrastructure

condition

E1

30

1.0

6

High depth flooding in public areas or private properties in

Alcântara due to intense

rainfall (RP = 100 years) and to insufficient sewers capacity

resulting from high river or

sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to property,

disturbances in services and

activities

High depth

flooding

in public areas or

private

properties


metereologic

phenomena (high intensity rainfall)

Occurrence of

abnormal hydrologic

phenomena (high

river or sea level)

Human physical

vulnerability

Social and economic

vulnerability

Infrastructure condition

E1

70

5

Discharge of organics in the water cycle or soil due to

discharge of untreated WW

from wastewater system caused by failure in Alcântara

WWTP for insufficient

treatment plant capacity during peak flow causing

damages to the environment

Discharge of

organics

in the water

cycle


metereologic

phenomena (high intensity rainfall)

Precipitation intensity

Contaminant

concentration

E0

50

6

Extended periods without

supply due to unavailability

of surface water in Tagus river due to drought, affecting

public health and causing disturbances in services and

activities

Extended

periods

without supply

Unavailability of

water at source


metereologic phenomena (low

rainfall)

Precipitation

intensity

Temperature



Figure 27 – Vulnerability to flooding in Lisbon

Figure 28 – Direct tidal effect in Lisbon

Systems and their interactions were characterised and risks identified and evaluated with the support of information gathered from the Geographic

Information Systems (GIS) of the involved stakeholders. GIS was used to

locate climate change related risk events in Lisbon and to characterise these

events in the Alcântara catchment, as illustrated in Figure 29.



Figure 29 – Risk identification and evaluation - risk events location

3.4 WCSP 4. Preliminary risk analysis and evaluation in the water cycle

3.4.1 Supporting tools

Several supporting tools were used during the risk analysis and evaluation

step. These tools were developed within the PREPARED project (Figure 26) and tools that support risk analysis are briefly described as follows:

Risk identification database (RIDB) – as mentioned in section 3.3.1, this

database provides a ‘checklist’ of known risks based on industry

knowledge and lessons learned from historical events. For the more than

100 events included, information is provided on event description; associated hazards, risk sources, contributing causes, existing measures to

reduce risk, risk factors and typical consequences dimensions, system

component where risk source occurs and system component where

exposure occurs. For each event, information on the expected impacts of climate change indicators and effects is also given (Almeida et al., 2011a;

Almeida et al., 2013b, Almeida et al., 2013c).

Risk analysis form (RA_Form) – this form, in excel format, was created

during the development of the Lisbon case study to register the events

that were identified in this demo. For each event, information to be registered includes: event description, hazards, risk sources, contributing



causes, measures to reduce risk (existing measures and additional measures), risk factors, system component where risk source occurs,

system component where exposure occurs, expected impacts of climate

change, probability (class and justification of selected class) and

consequence (class for each consequence dimension and justification of

selected class). Based on probability and consequence, the form automatically calculates the event risk.

Risk analysis registry (RAR) – this template is used to register information

that characterizes the events identified in the demo. Each event has

associated one record sheet registering essentially the same information included in the RA_Form but in a word format more suitable for

reporting.

3.4.2 Likelihood and consequences for each event

In Lisbon, intense rainfall is a typical scenario of the autumn and winter

seasons, when it is observed the highest number of days with unsteady weather, clouds and frequent and intense rainfall. Despite this seasonal

incidence, heavy rainfall can occur at any other time of the year. The intense

rainfall or persistence of rainy days can cause situations of urban flooding,

like the abnormal flow of stormwater to certain locations and facilities. The definition of unusually heavy rainfall values considers the values set for 1

hour period, associated with IDF curves (Intensity-Duration-Frequency),

proposed by Brandão (2001).

In Lisbon, the impact of the river flow in the city is mainly due to conjugation of intense rainfall and high sea level tide. Although this scenario in Lisbon

has low probability, in storms situations it may constitute a risk source for the

riverside area, if the maximum high tide is associated to a stormsurge.

For Lisbon, the Astronomical Tide Prediction model (Faculty of Science from the University of Lisbon) predicts that extreme levels of maximum high tide

in the reference period 2000-2010 vary between 4.26 m and 4.50 m, with an

average of 4.41 m. These values vary over the period of 18.6 years and consider as reference the Datum defined by the Cascais tide gauge, with a

value of 2.08 m below the average level of the sea.

Despite these figures present a low probability to occur in Lisbon, it is a scenario to consider because during the last decades a rise in the average level

of the sea and the Local Datum has been observed.

Historical records of flood occurrences have been reported in the news and media as they interfere with the population living and have damaged

building stock, vital points of the city or infrastructure in specific areas of the

city. These situations cyclically affect the city, with increasing intensity and

frequency, having been recorded in recent years (examples: 18th February,

2008; 29th October 2010; 21st December 2011).

Based on information from the records of the Firefighters Regiment and of the

Sewer Unit, it is possible to identify the consequences of high velocity or

height water depth.

SimTejo has a mathematical model of the sewer system that allows simulating

the system behaviour for the selected scenarios.



Considering the criteria for risk analysis defined in 3.1.9, the selected risk events were characterised for their likelihood and consequences, based on the

information from The Lisbon Municipality, Simtejo and EPAL. Examples of

the likelihood and consequences classification for the Alcântara selected

events are presented in Table 8.

Table 8 – Examples of likelihood and consequence classification for the Alcântara events

Event

ID Event Probability class

Consequence Class

Hea

lth

an

d

safe

ty

Fin

an

cia

l

En

vir

on

men

tal

Ser

vic

e co

nti

nu

ity

Lia

bil

ity

, co

mp

lia

nc

rep

uta

tio

n a

nd

im

ag

e

E1

20

1.0

3

High velocity runoff in Luís

de Camões street due to intense rainfall (RP = 10

years) and to insufficient

sewers capacity resulting from high river or sea level,

causing injuries to public,

damages to property, disturbances in services and

activities

4

based in records of 10 rainfall

occurrences with

return period 10 years: 1976, 1969,

1985, 1987, 1993,

1997, 1999, 2002, 2008

1 1 n.a. 3 1

ba

sed

in

rec

ord

s

Dep

end

ent

of

the

aff

ecte

d a

rea

n.a

.

Sm

all

aff

ecte

d a

rea

Ima

ge

no

t a

ffec

ted

E1

30

1.0

6

High depth flooding in

public areas or private

properties in Alcântara due to intense rainfall (RP = 100

years) and to insufficient

sewers capacity resulting from high river or sea level,

causing injuries to public, damages to property,


activities

3

based in records of 5 rainfall

occurrences with

return period 100 years: 1967, 1983,

1997

2 2 n.a. 4 2

ba

sed

on

rec

ord

s

Dep

end

ent

of

the

aff

ecte

d a

rea

n.a

.

Sig

nif

ica

nt

aff

ecte

d a

rea

Ref

eren

ces

on

th

e m

edia

a

nd

co

mp

lain

ts

E1

70

5

Discharge of organics in the

water cycle or soil due to

discharge of untreated WW from wastewater system

caused by failure in Alcântara WWTP for

insufficient treatment plant

capacity during peak flow causing damages to the

environment

5

based on rainfall records and

WWTP capacity

1 1 1 1 1

ba

sed

on

rec

ord

s

Lo

w i

mp

act

Ra

pid

rec

ov

ery

Lo

w p

erce

nta

ge

of

un

trea

ted

d

isch

arg

es

Ima

ng

e n

ot

aff

ecte

d

E0

50

6

Extended periods without supply due to unavailability

of surface water in Tagus

river due to drought, affecting public health and

causing disturbances in

services and activities

1

Never occurred

3 3 n.a. 5 4

Th

e o

ccu

rren

ce

Ex

pec

ted

pu

bli

c h

ealt

h c

on

seq

uen

ces

A l

ow

per

cen

tag

e o

f A

OB

lo

st w

ou

ld b

e ex

pec

ted

n.a

.

Inte

rru

pio

n o

f su

pp

ly

rele

va

nt

in d

ura

tio

n

an

d c

lien

ts a

ffec

ted

Ad

ver

se c

ov

era

ge

by

m

edia

in

fro

nt

pa

ge



3.4.3 Level of risk and risk evaluation for each event

Considering the risk matrix defined in 3.1.9, the selected events were

characterised for risk based on the likelihood and consequences. Examples of

the risk classification for the Alcântara selected events are presented in Table 10.

Table 9 – Examples of risk class for the Alcântara events

Event

ID Event

Risk class

global

Risk Class

Hea

lth

an

d

safe

ty

Fin

an

cia

l

En

vir

on

men

tal

Ser

vic

e co

nti

nu

ity

L

iab

ilit

y,

com

pli

an

c re

pu

tati

on

an

d

ima

ge

E1

20

1.0

3

High velocity runoff in Luís de

Camões street due to intense rainfall (RP = 10 years) and to insufficient

sewers capacity resulting from high

river or sea level, causing injuries to public, damages to property,


activities

2 1 1 n.a 2 1

E1

30

1.0

6

High depth flooding in public areas or private properties in Alcântara

due to intense rainfall (RP = 100

years) and to insufficient sewers capacity resulting from high river or

sea level, causing injuries to public,

damages to property, disturbances in services and activities

2 2 2 2 2 2

E1

70

5

Discharge of organics in the water

cycle or soil due to discharge of untreated WW from wastewater

system caused by failure in Alcântara WWTP for insufficient

treatment plant capacity during peak

flow causing damages to the environment

2 2 2 2 2 2

E0

50

6

Extended periods without supply

due to unavailability of surface water in Tagus river due to drought,

affecting public health and causing

disturbances in services and activities

2 1 1 n.a. 2 1

Based on the integrated risk analysis and evaluation, Lisbon team identified

that the most severe events are related to extended periods without supply,

high velocity runoff in public streets, high depth flooding in public areas and discharge of organics in the Tagus River.



3.5 WCSP 5. Development of system safety plans (SSP)

Concurrently with the work at the integrated level, work was also developed at the system level. This system level work provided important inputs to the

integrated level.

SimTejo developed a SSP for the part of its system that is located in the Alcantâra catchment (Martins et al., 2014).

As EPAL already had in place a Water Safety Plan according to WHO

recommendations, it did not develop a full SSP according to the WCSP methodology, but, in some of the SSP steps, an adaptation of the WSP was

made (Luís et al., 2014).

The Lisbon Municipality also did not implement a full SSP, but contributed by developing work at the system level that provided input to the integrated

level. In particular, they characterized the system, identified and

characterized events relevant to the integrated level and identified applicable

risk reduction measures (Telhado et al., 2014).

It should be noted that the work at both levels started at