Demonstrating Fire Inspection Effectiveness

Jon NisjaFire Safety Supervisor

Minnesota State Fire Marshal651-201-7204

jon.nisja@state.mn.us

Objectives

• Compare national and state fire loss in inspected hotel and school occupancies

• Analyze trends in fire loss before and after the inspection program commenced

• Demonstrate the effectiveness of fire inspection programs in reducing the number and severity of fires

Where Did the Ideas Come From?

• Dr. John Hall’s research: “Fire Code Inspections: What Methods Lead to Success” (1978)

• Fire Protection Research Foundation study "Measuring Code Compliance Effectiveness" (2008)

• National Fire Academy's course "Demonstrating Your Fire Prevention Program's Worth"

Measurements

• Process – counts things:– Number of inspections– Number of violations

• Impact – short-term changes:– Reduction in hazards seen– Behavior change

• Outcome – long-term effects:– Fewer fires– Less damage

Background Information

• In 2009, the Minnesota State Fire Marshal purchased an on-line fire reporting system for fire department use

• Provides us the ability to:– Have near “real-time” reporting– Analyze data (analytics)– Demonstrate outcomes (successes)

Analytics

• Mathematical and statistical discovery of patterns in data

• Often used to quantify performance• Provided in visual format• Since analytics look at past history, they

can be used to predict future events

Minnesota’s Experience

• This study focuses on the effectiveness of two inspection programs:– Hotel inspection program– Public school inspection program

Assumptions

Assumptions – U.S. vs. Minnesota

• Minnesota is an “average” state in terms of:– Land mass – Population

• Makes comparisons to national data easier (divide national data by 50)

Assumptions – Land Mass

• U.S. land mass: 3,794,083 sq. miles:– 3,794,083 / 50 states = 75,882 sq. miles– Minnesota’s land mass: 86,939 sq. miles– Minnesota is about 14% larger than the

average state size– Minnesota’s land mass is about 2.3% of

the size of the U.S.

Assumptions – Population

• U.S. population: 318,881,992 (2014):– 318,881,992 / 50 states = 6,377,640– Minnesota’s population: 5,457,173– Minnesota is about 15% less than the

average state population– Minnesota’s population is about 1.7% of

U.S. population

Assumptions – Other

• To analyze data, you need a big enough data set

• Often able to do that on a state or national level

• Difficult to do on specific occupancies on a local level (not enough incidents)

Minnesota Fire Loss

Fire Deaths (per million population)

• National: 9.8• North Central Region (average = 9.6):

– South Dakota: 13.9– Michigan: 11.3– Nebraska: 9.6– Iowa: 9.6– Wisconsin: 8.5– North Dakota: 8.3– MINNESOTA: 6.2 (44th lowest out of 50)

Fire Death Rate (per million population) – 2006-2010

National Midwest Minnesota0

2

4

6

8

10

9.8 9.6

6.2

Fire Rate (fires per 1,000 population) – 2013

National Midwest Minnesota0

0.51

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.5

3.94.4

2.4

Number of Fires in Minnesota

1978 1989 20140

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

16,142 19,614

12,706

Number of Minnesota Structure Fires

1978 1989 20140

1000200030004000500060007000

7,3756,797 6,242

Minnesota Structure Fire Rate(per 10,000 population)

1978 1989 2014 U.S.02468

101214161820

18.49

15.69

11.44

15.11

Hotel Inspection Program

History – Hotel Inspections

• January 28, 1977 – 17 people are killed in a fire at the Stratford Hotel in Breckenridge, Minnesota

History – Hotel Inspections

• February 15, 1978 – Explosion and fire at Commodore Hotel in St. Paul, Minnesota injured dozens

History – Hotel Inspections

• 1978 – Ten (10) positions added to Minnesota State Fire Marshal Division to inspect hotel and lodging facilities

History – Hotel Inspections

• State law requires that each hotel be inspected once every three years

• 1,019 hotels in Minnesota• Local communities can inspect:

– Vast majority are inspected by State Fire Marshal (875 or 86%)

– Local inspections (144 or 14%)• Current staffing is seven (7) positions

Hotel Fire Data – U.S. (NFPA)

• 49,505 hotels in U.S.• Estimated 3,700 hotel fires (2006-2010)• 12 deaths per year• 143 injuries per year• $127,000,000 in fire loss per year

Hotel Fire Data – Minnesota

• 1,019 hotels in Minnesota• 175 hotel fires in five years (2009-2013)

– Average 35 hotel fires per year• 1 death in five years• 2 injuries in five years• $5,229,480 in fire loss in five years

– Average $1,045,896 fire loss per year

Anticipated vs. Actual Hotel Fires

• 49,505 hotels in U.S.:– 49,505 hotels / 50 states = 990 per state– Minnesota: 1,019 hotels (slightly more

than average)• 3,700 hotel fires per year:

– 3,700 fires / 50 states = 74 per state– 35 hotel fires per year (half of

anticipated number of fires)

Anticipated vs. Actual Hotel Fires

National Minnesota0

1020304050607080

74

35

Hotel Fire Rate(Hotel Fires per 1,000 Hotels)

National Minnesota0

1020304050607080

75

34

Average Fire Loss per Hotel Fire

National Minnesota$27,000 $28,000 $29,000 $30,000 $31,000 $32,000 $33,000 $34,000 $35,000

$34,324

$29,883

Outcome Measures

• The number of hotel fires in Minnesota is less than half the national average

• Hotel fire rate in Minnesota (fires per 1,000 hotels) is less than half the national fire rate

• Average hotel fire loss is 15% less than the national average

School Inspection Program

History – School Inspections

• July, 1986 – Fire destroys Ellis Middle School – Austin, MN

• January, 1987 – Fire destroys Madison High School – Madison, MN

• State Legislature is concerned with the age of school buildings in Minnesota:– Passes public school inspection

program (effective August 1, 1990)

History – School Inspections

• Involves public schools only:– Includes charter schools– Does not involve private or parochial

schools• Personnel are hired – Fall of 1990• School fire loss is researched (national

and state)• Focus is on fire and life safety issues

History – School Inspections

• Unlike hotel inspection program, there was “baseline” data:– Number of educational occupancy fires– Fire loss (total, average per fire, etc.)

• Prior to the program’s start-up and for first few years, there was a major school fire at least once every two years:– From 1995-2013, there were none

History – School Inspections

• State law requires that each public school be inspected once every three years

• 1,755 public schools in Minnesota• Local communities can inspect:

– Vast majority are inspected by State Fire Marshal (1505 or 86%)

– Local inspections (250 or 14%)• Current staffing is five (5) positions

School Fire Data – U.S. (NFPA)

• 98,817 public schools in U.S.:– 98,817 / 50 states = 1,976 per state

• Estimated 4,060 school fires (2007-2011)

• 70 injuries per year• $70,000,000 in fire loss per year

School Fire Data – Minnesota

• 1,755 public schools in Minnesota• 245 school fires in five years (2009-

2013)– Average 49 school fires per year

• 32 injuries in five years:– 31 of the 32 injuries were in one fire

• $684,616 in fire loss in five years– Average $136,923 fire loss per year

Types of School in Minnesota

Pre-School; 38

Elementary; 769

Sec-ondary, 550

Combina-tion 210

Charter; 190

School Fires per Year – National Average vs. Minnesota

National Minnesota0

102030405060708090

81

49

Average Number of Educational Occupancy Fires Per Year

1985-1989 2009-20130

20

40

60

80

100

120

112

59

Average School Fire Loss Per Year

1985-1989 2009-2013$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,2

17,1

70

$137

,323

Average Loss Per School Fire

• Compares state and national school fire loss

• Before Minnesota inspection program and after

• For five (5) year periods of time

Average Loss Per School Fire

1985-1989 2005-2009$0

$2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000

$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000

$11,

504 $1

7,73

7

$10,

849

$2,5

96

NationalMinnesota

School Fire Rate (per 1,000 Schools)

National Minnesota0

10

20

30

40

50

41

28

Outcome Measures

• The number of school fires in Minnesota is 40% less than the national average

• School fire rate in Minnesota (fires per 1,000 schools) is 30% less than the national fire rate

• Average school fire loss is:– 75% less than before the program– 85% less than the national average

Questions