demography seminar - liz rolfe, south west pho (05.11.2009)
DESCRIPTION
Liz Rolfe's presentation Health Inequalities within an Ageing Population (SWO Seminar, Gloucestershire Local Intelligence Network). Thursday 5th November 2009TRANSCRIPT
South West Public Health Observatory
Health Inequalities within an Ageing PopulationSWO seminar – Gloucestershire LIN
Liz Rolfe
5th November 2009
South West Public Health Observatory
Health Inequalities within an Ageing Population
• Population changes• Key aspects of mortality and morbidity• The importance of prevention• The effects of inequalities
South West Public Health Observatory
An ageing population
• England : The proportion of the total population aged 65 and over
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2010 2020 2030
Prop
orti
on o
f al
l age
s po
pula
tion
65-74
75-84
85+
Source :Office of National Statistics http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/NPP-2006/NPP06_NSOnline.pdf
South West Public Health Observatory
An ageing population
The predicted increase in population for all ages and those aged 75 and over in South West PCTs 2006-2020
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Chan
ge fr
om 2
006
to 2
020
as %
of 2
006
Popu
lati
on (m
illio
ns)
Increase in 2020 2006 % Change: All ages % Change: 75 years and older
Source : ONS Sub National Population Projections, www.statistics.gov.uk/snpp/ accessed September 2008
South West Public Health Observatory
Cause of Death
• 2007
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Under 65 65-84 85+
Age at death
Other
Respiritory
Circulatory
Cancer
Source: Office of National Statistics Mortality data DH1
South West Public Health Observatory
Years of Life Lost by causeAverage years of life lost per 100,000 population (at risk)
aged under 75 years in England and Wales: 2003-05Source: National Statistics / National Centre for Health Outcomes Development (NCHOD)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Cervical cancer
Infectious and parasitic disease
Pneumonia
Cancer of small intestine, colon, rectum & anus
Land transport accidents
Chronic liver disease including cirrhosis
Stroke
Suicide and injury undetermined
Lung cancer
Accidents
Breast cancer
Coronary heart disease
Years Lost
South West Public Health Observatory
Coronary Heart Disease
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
enta
ge o
f po
pula
tion
wit
h CH
D
Year
Predicted prevalence of CHD in Gloucester and England, persons age 16+, 2005-2020
England
Gloucester
Source: ERPHO
South West Public Health Observatory
CancerPredicted cases for 2020 and mean actual diagnoses in 2004-
2006 (ICD10 C00-C97 excluding C44 non-melanoma Skin Cancer) for Primary Care Trusts in the South West
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
% C
hang
e fr
om 2
004-
6 t
o 20
20
Num
ber o
f dia
gnos
esPredicted Increase in 2020 Mean annual cases in 2004-2006 % Change from 2004-2006 to 2020
Source: SWPHO Cancer Registry (SWPHO forthcoming report)
South West Public Health Observatory
Dementia
• One in five people over 80 years • Estimated over 680,000 people with dementia in the UK• Forecast to rise by 38% by 2021 (over 900,000 people) and 154% by
2051 (1.7m people)• 62% (over 400,000) have Alzheimer’s disease
• Contributes 11% of all years lived with disability among people aged 60 and over, more than stroke, cancer or cardiovascular disease (2003 World Health Report Global Burden Of Disease)
• Overall, 10% of deaths in men over 65 years, and 15% of deaths in women over 65 years may be attributable to dementia.
• Total cost of dementia in the UK is £17.03 billionSource: Dementia UK
South West Public Health Observatory
Prevention – Dementia example
• If onset of dementia could be delayed by 5 years, by a combination of improvements in public health (cardiovascular risk factor reduction and diet) and specific preventive treatments.
• This would halve the prevalence of dementia in each five year age band and, in principle, halve the numbers of death attributed here to dementia – saving nearly 30,000 lives annually.
South West Public Health Observatory
Participation in sports, games or physical activity
South West Public Health Observatory
Adults who smokeAdults who smoke
15 20 25 30 35
England
South West
Cornwall
Gloucestershire
Devon
Wiltshire
Somerset
Dorset
Bristol
Restormel
Exeter
Bournemouth
Penwith
North Cornwall
Kerrier
Gloucester
Plymouth
Swindon
Torridge
Torbay
Cheltenham
Weymouth and Portland
West Somerset
North Devon
Poole
Carrick
Sedgemoor
Caradon
Taunton Deane
Mid Devon
Teignbridge
Forest of Dean
South Somerset
Bath and North East Somerset
Mendip
West Wiltshire
South Gloucestershire
Salisbury
Purbeck
North Somerset
East Devon
North Dorset
West Devon
Christchurch
South Hams
West Dorset
Tewkesbury
Kennet
Stroud
North Wiltshire
Cotswold
East Dorset
Percentage of adults who report that they currently smoke
Quartile 1
Quartile 2
Quartile 3
Quartile 4
South West
England
South West Public Health Observatory
Early deaths attributable to smoking Early deaths attributable to smoking
145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325 335 345 355 365
England
South West
Cornwall
Gloucestershire
Wiltshire
Somerset
Devon
Dorset
Plymouth
Bristol
Gloucester
Swindon
Penwith
Kerrier
Forest of Dean
North Devon
Torbay
Torridge
Restormel
Exeter
Caradon
Weymouth and Portland
North Cornwall
Sedgemoor
Cheltenham
Bournemouth
Mendip
North Wiltshire
South Gloucestershire
North Somerset
Poole
Salisbury
Stroud
Kennet
Carrick
Tewkesbury
Teignbridge
Bath and North East Somerset
West Wiltshire
Taunton Deane
South Somerset
West Dorset
Purbeck
South Hams
Mid Devon
West Devon
North Dorset
West Somerset
Christchurch
Cotswold
East Devon
East Dorset
Directly standardised rate of early deaths (persons aged 35 or over) attributable to smoking(per 100,000 population aged 35 or over)
Quartile 1
Quartile 2
Quartile 3
Quartile 4
South West
England
South West Public Health Observatory
Income deprivation affecting older people
South West Public Health Observatory
Limiting long term illness
South West Public Health Observatory
Inequalities in life expectancy within SW local authorities
Male life expectancy at birth 2001-05: inequalities between most and least deprived areas within South West Local Authorities
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0W
eym
outh
and
Por
tland
Tor
bay
Ply
mou
th
Bou
rnem
outh
Pen
with
Nor
th D
evon
Bris
tol
Sw
indo
n
Nor
th S
omer
set
Glo
uces
ter
Sed
gem
oor
Exe
ter
Tau
nton
Dea
ne
Mid
Dev
on
For
est
of D
ean
Ken
net
Res
torm
el
Wes
t D
orse
t
Sou
th S
omer
set
Nor
th C
ornw
all
Che
ltenh
am
Men
dip
Ker
rier
Car
adon
Sal
isbu
ry
Wes
t D
evon
Chr
istc
hurc
h
Tew
kesb
ury
Nor
th D
orse
t
Wes
t S
omer
set
Eas
t D
evon
Nor
th W
iltsh
ire
Sou
th H
ams
Tei
gnbr
idge
Tor
ridge
Car
rick
Cot
swol
d
Poo
le
Sou
th G
louc
este
rshi
re
Wes
t W
iltsh
ire
Bat
h an
d N
orth
Eas
t S
omer
set
Str
oud
Pur
beck
Eas
t D
orse
t
Local Authorities
Lif
e ex
pec
tan
cy a
t b
irth
(ye
ars)
South West Public Health Observatory
Identifying priorities….
Anywhere AnywhereAnywhere Anywhere
South West Public Health Observatory
SWPHO work programme 2009/10
• Health of older people – predicted trends and changes in mortality and morbidity
• Demographic profile – migration adjusted life expectancy
• Public Health chapter – State of the South West 2010
South West Public Health Observatory
Further information
• Website– www.swpho.nhs.uk– Register for email alerts and newsletters
• Contact us– [email protected]
South West Public Health Observatory
Thank you