Demographic Transition Model – Why & How

Main QuestionsWhy did the CDR begin to drop in the

Western world? (Beginning of Stage 2)Why did birth rates not fall rapidly at the

beginning of the Industrial Revolution?Why did birth rates begin to fall?

(beginning of stage 3)Why did death rates continue to fall

through stage 3?

Main Questions (cont’d) What are the general reasons for the

Transition in the West? Why was the West not negatively impacted

by this rapid population expansion? What has caused declining CDR in the

developing world? Will this model predict the future for the

developing world’s population transition?

1st Agricultural Revolution ~8000 BC: First Domestication of Plants and Animals

some societies transition from hunting and gathering to agricultural societies

larger and more stable sources of foodurbanization religious practices adaptother elements of “civilization” – math;

government; science

Why did the CDR begin to drop in the Western world? (Beginning of Stage 2)

2nd Agricultural Revolution 18th C: Post-Columbian agriculture exchange

new higher calorie foods introduced to Europe: potatoes, corn

improved animal husbandrycrop rotationstorage technologydistribution systems

2nd Agricultural Revolution 18th C (cont’d)

increased cotton production inexpensive clothingbetter hygiene

early Industrial Revolution ~1750 steam enginemass production (interchangeable

parts)energy technology: water power transportation improvements: ships,

canals

later Industrial Revolution ~1850

railroadsnew agricultural technology: plows,

thrashers increased wealth privately and publicly

Better Public Health

improved sanitation & personal hygiene*

sewer systems to protect water & food supply* *first implemented for aesthetic reasons

Why did birth rates not fall rapidly at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution?

Cost / Benefit ratio of children

still used child laborstill primarily an agrarian society tradition

“Cult of Family”

Victorian age of large familiesReligious impediments to birth control

Why did birth rates begin to fall? (beginning of stage 3)

Development of Middle Class values

move to the city aspire to management positionsmandatory schooling (removed kids

from labor market) families could invest in education for

kidscost / benefit ratio begins to shift

Public Policy

Increased social programs to help poor and elderly

Decreased need for children to care for family members

Status of Women

increasing independencenew economic opportunitiessense of control over reproductive

decisions

Why did death rates continue to fall through stage 3?

Medical Revolution (20th C)

improved sanitation methodsanestheticsvaccinations technology

Epidemiological Shift

stage 2 deaths – infectious diseases; crop failures

stage 3 deaths – chronic diseases; old age diseases

What are the general reasons for the Transition in the West?

simple answer: urbanization and industrialization

deeper answer: change in cost / benefit of children Change in the status of women

DT effects on population in the West: The West and the World experienced a significant population increase as the West entered and worked its way through the transition.

Why was the West not negatively impacted by this rapid population expansion?

Safety Valve

Europeans emigrated to other parts of the world, primarily the US

The US had enormous resources and space to absorb the increasing population

Colonization

The US and Europe had a rapidly expanding economy to feed the population

Exploited the natural resources and labor supply of colonial holdings

Will this model predict the future for the developing world’s population transition?

Yes

the model basically implies that declining CDR will be followed by declining CBR

No; The Model Won’t Work

Base CBR is higher to begin withCDR dropping much fasterEurope had a safety valve – migration;

dev’ing world too poor to migrateColonial exploitation not an option for

the dev’ing world

No The Model Won’t Work(cont’d)

Model is affected by Western values which are not applicable in cultures with different values and world view

European governments were more powerful than dev’ing nations’ government

Global pollution control measures will not allow unfettered economic growth like Europe was allowed

I. Migration

A. Why People Migrate

PUSH – induces people to move OUT of their current location.

PULL – induces people to move INTO a new location.

1. Push – Pull Factors

2. Kinds of Push-Pull FactorsEconomic – mainly jobs.Cultural – forced migrations. (refugees)

-Slavery, political oppression, etc.Environmental – comfort

-mountains, coasts, climate, water

3. Intervening ObstaclesEnvironmental or cultural feature that

hinders migration. Mountains “Great Wall” list more…

a. Obstacles to Migration Immigration policies of host countries

U.S. quota laws Temporary migration for work Time-contract workers Economic migrants or refugees?

Cultural problems living in other countries U.S. attitudes to immigrants Attitudes to guest workers

Refugees: Sources and destinations

Fig. 3-1: Major source and destination areas of both international and internal refugees.

B. Distance of Migration

1. Internal-most common-shorter distance-less stress

Midwest to Coast or

City to Suburb

1. International-voluntary or forced-often long distances

CATEGORIES

Intraregional Migration in the U.S.

Fig. 3-14: Average annual migration among urban, suburban, and rural areas in the U.S. during the 1990s. The largest flow was from central cities to suburbs.

C. Characteristics of MigrantsMost long-distance migrants are male.Most long-distance migrants are adults

rather than families with children.

Migration within a CountryMigration between regions of a country

Migration between regions within the U.S. Migration between regions in other countries

Migration within one region Rural-urban migration Urban-suburban migration Migration from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan

regions

Interregional Migration in the U.S.

Fig. 3-13: Average annual migrations between regions in the U.S. in 1995 and in 2000.

Center of Population in the U.S.

Fig. 3-12: The center of U.S. population has consistently moved westward, with the population migration west. It has also begun to move southward with migration to the southern sunbelt.

Net Migration (per population)

Fig. 3-3: Net migration per 1,000 population. The U.S. has the largest number of immigrants, but other developed countries also have relatively large numbers.

Migration PatternsGlobal migration patterns

U.S. migration patterns Colonial immigration 19th century immigration Recent immigration

Impact of immigration on the U.S. Legacy of European migration Undocumented immigration Destination of immigrants within the U.S.

Global Migration Patterns

Fig. 3-2: The major flows of migration are from less developed to more developed countries.

Migration to U.S., by region of origin

Fig. 3-4: Most migrants to the U.S. were from Europe until the 1960s. Since then, Latin

America and Asia have become the main sources of immigrants.

Migration from Asia to the U.S.

Fig. 3-5: Migration in 2001. The largest numbers of migrants from Asia come from India, China, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Migration from Latin America to the U.S.

Fig. 3-6: Mexico has been the largest source of migrants to the U.S., but migrants have also come from numerous other Latin American nations.

GENOCIDEGENOCIDE

Again and again.Again and again.

Push Factor.

The HolocaustThe Holocaust 12 million victims. The word

“Genocide” is created to legally define the crimes against humanity. (’45)

Genocide Convention Created (’48)

Post-Holocaust GenocidePost-Holocaust Genocide Cambodia (Carter)

*2 million Iraq (Reagan/Bush)

*?? Rwanda (Clinton)

*1 million Sudan? (W. Bush)

*100,000

Why is Genocide Allowed to Happen?Why is Genocide Allowed to Happen?

Genocide does not threaten U.S. security. Suppressing genocide could threaten

American lives. Lack of condemnation or sanctions. Difficult to predict or report. U.S. will not allow citizens to be tried in a

genocide court.

RwandaRwandaBACKGROUND

Europeans created a class system in the region in 1918.

Class based mostly on ethnicity in relation to European ideals.

Ethnic identity cards issued in 1926.Belgium withdraws from

Rwanda/Burundi. (1962)

RwandaRwandaHUTU

*86% of Pop*agriculturalists*poorer/less

educated*Shorter, squater,

wider features.*oppressed group

1918-1962.

TUTSI*13% of Pop*cattle herders*”wealthy”, educated*”European” features*oppressed group

1963-1994.

DarfurTODAY!!!