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Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC Demographic Clarity for Businesses By John Burns & Chris Porter www.bigshiftsahead.com

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Page 1: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Demographic

Clarity for

BusinessesBy

John Burns &

Chris Porter

www.bigshiftsahead.com

Page 2: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced whatsoever without prior written consent

of the author, except as provided by the United States of America copyright law.

Page 3: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Defining generations by decade born makes analysis far more relevant

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau data

Page 4: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

321 million Americans identify well with people their own age2015 US POPULATION BY PLACE OF B IRTH

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2014 National Projections

Page 5: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Births surged in the 1950s and 1980sUS B IRTHS PER YEAR

Source: Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics and CDC

Page 6: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The GI Bill spurred an 18% homeownership boost from 1940 to 1960US HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES (1900 -2015)

Sources: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census and Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey,

John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 7: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1950s highway construction enabled suburban lifeVEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL

Sources: US Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics

Page 8: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1930s Savers led an almost 200% spike in divorcesDIVORCES AND ANNULMENTS

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data;

* Color coded based on 32 years old as the median age of first divorce. Note: For states that do not collect this data

(varies by year), we estimated the number based on the number of people in that state. Annulments included above.

Page 9: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Government assistance programs aided a surge in the rate of older people living on their ownSHARE OF 75+ YEAR -OLD POPULATION HEADING A HOUSEHOLD

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 10: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Rising debt has both increased affluence and made each generation more susceptible to financial difficulties in tough economic timesTOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OWNED AND SECURITIZED

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, St. Louis Fed

Page 11: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Major events and technologies led to a baby boom and a baby bust only 25 years laterNUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMAN

Sources: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

* Based on a survey of women aged 40-44 at the time of the survey

Page 12: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Rising young women’s incomes endedin the 2000sFEMALE MEDIAN REAL INCOME, WOMEN AGED 25–34 (2013 DOLLARS)

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements;

averaged over 5 years for 1980s Sharers

Page 13: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1940s Achievers earned the most money in their preretirement years of 55–64REAL MEDIAN INCOME OF PEOPLE 55 –64 (1947–2013)

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements;

averaged over 5 years for 1950s Innovators

Page 14: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Entrepreneurship has plummetedNEW START-UPS AS A PERCENT OF ALL BUSINESSES

Source: US Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics

Page 15: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1950s Innovators earned the most money in their peak earning years of 45–54REAL MEDIAN INCOME OF PEOPLE 45 –54 (1947–2013)

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements;

averaged over 5 years for 1960s Equalers

Page 16: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1950s Innovators head into retirement with $18 trillion, the most of any generationNET WORTH BY GENERATION

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System

2013 Survey of Consumer Finances

Page 17: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1960s Equalers have lower net worth than prior generationsFAMILY MEDIAN NET WORTH 45–54, ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION, 2013

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2014 National Projections

Page 18: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1960s Equaler dads increasingly stay at home to raise the kidsPERCENT OF NON-WORKING FATHERS THAT STAY HOME TO TAKE CARE OF HOME/FAMILY

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements

Page 19: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

By 2000, 73% of working-age women workedFEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE, AGES 20 –64

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data;

color-coded based on the year a generation turns 20

Page 20: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1970s Balancer couples led the way for more work/family balancePERCENT OF FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS WITH 2+ EARNERS

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

Family households include all households with at least 2 family members in it.

Page 21: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Stay-at-home moms plummeted but in 2000 the Balancers led a reversalSHARE OF MOMS WHO STAY AT HOME FULL T IME

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS; colors based on a 30-year-old mother

Page 22: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

At $47k, 1970s Balancers have the lowest net worth in generationsMEDIAN NET WORTH 35 -44 , ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION 2013

Source: 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances, colors based on the majority of 45–54-year-olds in the survey year

Page 23: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Student debt delays young adult milestonesPERCENT OF PEOPLE 18 –40 WITH STUDENT LOAN DEBT

WHO DELAYED THESE MILESTONES BECAUSE OF THAT DEBT

Source: Bankrate Money Pulse Survey, published August 2015

Page 24: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1980s Sharers significantly delayed marriage and childrenPERCENT OF 25 –29 YEAR-OLDS S INGLE AND WITHOUT CHILDREN

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Page 25: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Student debt quintuples in 11 yearsSTUDENT LOANS OUTSTANDING (TRILL IONS)

Sources: New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 26: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Young adults’ incomes plunging 1% per year since 2000, despite rising education levelsREAL MEDIAN INCOME, PEOPLE AGED 25 –34 , (2013 DOLLARS)

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

Page 27: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

A quadrupling of childhood obesityPERCENTAGE OF OBESE 12 –19 YEAR-OLDS

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Page 28: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

42% of young adults work in jobs below their qualification levelUNDEREMPLOYMENT RATE OF RECENT HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; Economic Policy Institute

Page 29: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 4-5-6 Rule for Demographic Predictions

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 30: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Lowest homeownership in 40 yearsHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE, ANNUAL AVERAGE

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting based on US Census Bureau data

Page 31: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

More immigrants legally moved to the US from 1990-2009 than the prior 60 yearsLEGAL IMMIGRATION BY DECADE

Source: Department of Homeland Security, legal green card recipients only, fiscal years ending September

Page 32: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

38 million people receive Social Security benefits todayRETIREES RECEIV ING SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS (MILL IONS )

Source: Social Security Administration. Retired workers only—does not include dependents receiving benefits

Page 33: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLCSource: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Those born in 1980 and later struggled in an economy more similar to the 1930s than any decade since thenREAL GDP GROWTH

Page 34: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Economic growth has declined for each generationAV E R A G E R E A L G D P G R O W TH P E R P E R S O N D U R I N G P R I M E

W O R K I N G YE A R S ( 2 5 -5 4 )

* Prime working years not yet complete

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Page 35: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Life expectancy has almost doubled in the last century thanks in part to health technologyUS L IFE EXPECTANCY AT B IRTH

Source: Mapping History, University of Oregon (1880-2000); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,

National Vital Statistics Reports, 2010

Page 36: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Americans now move every 9 years compared to every 6 years in the 1980sSHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT MOVED IN THE PRIOR YEAR

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Page 37: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Social shifts happen more quickly nowNUMBER OF YEARS FROM AN ISSUE’S TRIGGER POINT

UNTIL FEDERAL ACTION WAS TAKEN

Source: Bloomberg; measured from the year at least one state took action to federal action

Page 38: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Sharer women give birth 3 years later than their mom and 5 years later than their grandmotherWOMEN’S MEDIAN AGE AT B IRTH OF F IRST CHILD

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data

Page 39: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Less than 2/3 of 1970s Balancers are married in their late 30s, compared to 84% of 1930s SaversPERCENT OF PEOPLE MARRIED BY AGE AND B IRTH YEAR, AGE 35 –39

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Page 40: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Women receive 58% of college degreesPERCENT OF ALL BACHELOR’S AND MASTER’S DEGREES CONFERRED

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of National Center for Education Statistics data

Page 41: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Equaler women were the first to attain the same education level as menDIFFERENCE BETWEEN US WOMEN & MEN 25–34 WITH BACHELOR’S DEGREE OR HIGHER

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Page 42: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

23% of married couples earned college degrees, up from 3% in 1960SHARE OF MARRIED COUPLES WHERE BOTH SPOUSES HAVE A COLLEGE DEGREE

Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1960-2010, American Community Survey via IPUMS-USA

Page 43: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Real female incomes grew much faster than men’s from 1970 through 2000FULL-TIME, YEAR-ROUND WORKERS BY MEDIAN INCOME AND SEX (2013 DOLLARS )

Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

Page 44: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Women now earn more than their husbands 38% of the timeMARRIED HOUSEHOLDS WITH WIFE EARNING MORE THAN HUSBAND

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Social and Economic Supplements to the Current Population Survey

Page 45: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

83% of men and 70% of women work today—both have been declining since 2001L A B O R F O R C E PA RT I C I PAT I ON —R O LL I N G 1 2 - M ON T H , P O P U L AT I O N 2 0 – 6 4

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Page 46: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Couples marry 4 years later than their parents and 6 years later than their grandparentsMEDIAN AGE AT F IRST MARRIAGE

Source: US Census Bureau Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

Page 47: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Almost 3% of babies are now born to 40+ year-old momsPERCENT OF TOTAL B IRTHS PER YEAR TO WOMEN 40+

Source: Centers for Disease Control, National Vital Statistics Report

Page 48: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Women delay their first child until age 26, a 1-year delay since the 2009 recession beganWOMEN’S MEDIAN AGE AT F IRST B IRTH

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,

National Vital Statistics Report

Page 49: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Balancer and Sharer dads spend twice as much time with their kids as their dads didAVERAGE NUMBER OF HOURS SPENT ON CHILDCARE PER WEEK BY FATHERS

Source: Pew Research Center

Page 50: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Single moms have exploded in numbers. Unmarried women give birth to 41% of babiesPERCENT OF B IRTHS TO UNMARRIED WOMEN

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Vital Statistics Report

Page 51: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Since 1960, single parenting has quadrupled for women and increased ninefold for menSINGLE MOTHERS AND FATHERS

Source: US Census Bureau; Note: Shared custody children are counted at the residence where they live and

sleep most of the time, or where they were staying the day the survey was taken.

Page 52: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1 in 3 kids now live with just 1 parentSINGLE- PARENT SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS W ITH OW N CHILDREN UNDER 18

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census

Note: An unmarried partner could be helping raise kids. In joint custody situations, the child is counted

at the residence where they live and sleep most of the time.

Page 53: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The foreign-born population doubled in 20 years to 40 million peopleFOREIGN-BORN POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1900 –2010

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census

Page 54: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

13% of Americans immigrated here—the most in 90+ yearsFOREIGN-BORN SHARE OF US POPULATION

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census

Page 55: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Immigration has recently fueled 1/3 of population growthUS POPULATION GROWTH BY B IRTHPLACE

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census

Page 56: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Economic prosperity in other countries has created the wealth needed to migrate to the USNOMINAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, 2000 –2014

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database

Page 57: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census,

2013 American Community Survey

More Mexicans now leave America than enter—a huge shiftNET INCREASE IN US RESIDENTS BORN IN MEXICO

Page 58: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Indians flock to the USNET INCREASE IN US RESIDENTS BORN IN INDIA

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census,

2013 American Community Survey

Page 59: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Chinese increasingly relocate to the USNET INCREASE IN US RESIDENTS BORN IN CHINA

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census,

2013 American Community Survey

Page 60: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

48% of recent foreign-born population growth took place in just 4 states1990–2010 SHARE OF US FOREIGN -BORN POPULATION GROWTH

Source: US Census Bureau—1990 Decennial Census, 2010 American Community Survey

Page 61: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Texas’s welcoming attitude to immigrants has contributed to its strong population growthGROWTH OF FOREIGN -BORN POPULATION BY COUNTY, 2000–2010

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Decennial Census

Page 62: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

More than 1/2 of Miami’s residents moved here from another countryHIGHEST SHARE OF FOREIGN -BORN POPULATION, 2009 –2013

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, 2009–2013 American Community Survey

Page 63: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Immigration suppresses the homeownership rateHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY NATIV ITY

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Page 64: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Immigrants often have more than 2 adults in a home, creating fewer households per adultADULTS PER HOUSEHOLD (FOR POPULATION IN HOUSEHOLDS)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau,

2013 American Community Survey via IPUMS-USA

Page 65: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1970s Balancers boast the greatest foreign diversity, with 23% foreign-bornPERCENT OF 2015 POPULATION THAT IS FOREIGN -BORN

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2014 National Projections

Page 66: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1950s Innovators will drive an explosion of 18 million more people aged 65+ over65+ POPULATION BY DECADE OF B IRTH

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates

and 2014 National Projections

Page 67: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Nearly double the percentage of 65–69 year-olds work full time today versus 20 years agoPERCENT OF 65–69 YEAR-OLDS WORKING FULL T IME

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Page 68: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Innovators are 7% more likely than the Achievers to be working in their early 60sLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AT AGE 60 –64

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 69: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Life expectancy increases more than 2 months every yearUS L IFE EXPECTANCY AT B IRTH

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Page 70: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Poverty among early retirees has plungedfrom 22% to 9%SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS BELOW THE POVERTY LINE (HOUSEHOLD HEADS AGED 65 –69)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,

Annual Social and Economic Supplements via IPUMS-CPS

Page 71: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

By the mid-2020s, twice as many people will turn 65 than in the 1980s and 1990sPOPULATION AGED 65

Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates and 2014 National Projections.

65-year-old population as of July 1 each year

Page 72: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The traditional “labor pool” will grow much more slowly over the next decadeGROWTH OF US RESIDENT POPULATION AGED 20 –64

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates

and 2014 National Projections

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Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Each decade born from 1950s through 1980s heads 22 million+/- householdsESTIMATED 2016 HOUSEHOLDS BY DECADE BORN

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 74: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

12.5 million more households will boost the economyHOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY DECADE (MILL IONS)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data.

Page 75: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Those born in the 1980s and later will drive most future household formationsNET CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS BY DECADE BORN, 2016 –2025 (MILLIONS)

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 76: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Household formations plunged 50%+ after the Great RecessionNET HOUSEHOLD FORMATION, 1965 –2014

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 77: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Less than 1/2 of people at their 10-year reunion are married or living with a partnerPERCENTAGE OF 28 -YEAR-OLDS L IV ING WITH A SPOUSE/PARTNER

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950-2000), American Community Survey (2010-2013)

via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC

Page 78: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The Great Recession ramped up the rate of young adults living with parents or roommatesPERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS LIVING WITH A PARENT/RELATIVE/ROOMMATE

HOUSEHOLD HEAD

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)

via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC

Page 79: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The headship rate has steadily fallen since 2000, resulting in more adults per householdPERCENT OF POPULATION 18+ HEADING A HOUSEHOLD, AND ADULTS PER HOUSEHOLD

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 80: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1990s Connectors will form the fewest households per person of any generationPERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS HEADING A HOUSEHOLD

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)

via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC

Page 81: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Marital/cohabitation rates should continueto plunge for 28-year-oldsPERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS LIVING WITH A SPOUSE/PARTNER HOUSEHOLD HEAD

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)

via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC

Page 82: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1990s Connectors will increasingly live with parents or other relatives later in lifePERCENTAGE OF 28-YEAR-OLDS LIVING WITH A PARENT/RELATIVE HOUSEHOLD HEAD

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)

via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC

Page 83: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1990s Connectors live with roommates more than any generation before themP E R C E N TA G E O F 2 8 - YE A R - O LD S L I V I N G W I TH A R O O M M AT E H O U S E H O L D H E A D

O R A S A B O A R D E R / S E RVA N T

Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Census (1950–2000), American Community Survey (2010–2013)

via IPUMS-USA, forecast by JBREC

Page 84: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The 1990s Connectors will create 14 million households from 2016 through 2025NET HOUSEHOLD FORMATION BY THOSE BORN IN THE 1990s, 2005 -2025

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 85: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

1980s Sharers should form 4.3 million more households over 10 yearsNET HOUSEHOLD FORMATION BY THOSE BORN IN THE 1980s , 1995 -2025

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 86: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Our bullish 12.5 million household-formation forecast assumes low headship rates in comparison to historyHEADSHIP RATES BY AGE

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 87: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Homeownership should reach 60.8% in 2025—the lowest since the 1950sHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE (ANNUAL AVERAGE )

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 88: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Those aged 55+ head 52% of all owner householdsNUMBER OF HOMEOWNERS IN 2015 (MILL IONS)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau

Page 89: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

America lost 2.1 million homeowners from 2007 to 2014ANNUAL HOMEOWNER GROWTH

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 90: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

We forecast 5.2 million more homeowners by 2025HOMEOWNER GROWTH BY GENERATION (MILL IONS) , 2016 –2025

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 91: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

No more income tax benefits for most home buyersMORTGAGE INTEREST & PROPERTY TAXES IN EXCESS OF STANDARD TAX DEDUCTION

Sources: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of data from S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price

Index, FHFA, NAR, Freddie Mac, Tax Policy Center

*Assumes a married couple with a mortgage equal to 80% of median home price, and a 1.5% property tax rate.

Page 92: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

A 1% change in the homeownership rate equates to 1.2 million owned householdsHOMEOWNER IMPACT ON CHANGE IN HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 93: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

At age 38, 50% of 1970s Balancers head a household, and 55% of those own their homeHEADSHIP AND HOMEOWNERSHIP FOR 38 -YEAR-OLDS, 2013

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 94: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Homeownership and home equity rise with ageHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY GENERATION

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau 2013 American

Community Survey 1-Year Estimates via IPUMS-USA

Page 95: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Falling mortgage rates have boosted home prices and homeownershipMORTGAGE RATES

Source: Bankrate.com, Freddie Mac, FFIEC

Page 96: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

More than 1 in 9 households now rent a single-family homeSINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL HOMES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL HOUSING UNITS

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data from American Community Survey;

years are based on Q3

Page 97: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Renters remain in place, despite historically low mortgage rates and rising rentsPERCENTAGE OF APARTMENT MOVE -OUTS TO PURCHASE A HOME

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of publicly traded REIT quarterly filings

Historical Average = 17%

Page 98: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

We expect 27% of 1990s Connector households to own in 2025, and 73% to rentHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE AMONG 28 -YEAR-OLD HOUSEHOLDERS

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data and extensive analysis of

each age cohort.

Page 99: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

We expect 52% of 1980s Sharer households to own in 2025, and 48% to rentHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE AMONG 38 -YEAR-OLD HOUSEHOLDERS

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data and extensive analysis of

each age cohort.

Page 100: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

We expect 63% of 1970s Balancer households to own in 2025, and 37% to rentHOMEOWNERSHIP RATE AMONG 48 -YEAR-OLD HOUSEHOLDERS

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data and extensive analysis of

each age cohort.

Page 101: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

13.7 million homes will be needed to meet housing demandPROJECTED HOUSING DEMAND, 2016 –2025

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 102: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The warm, affordable, pro-growth South will attract 62% of the household growthESTIMATED SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH, 2016 –2025

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Page 103: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Texas will grow faster than any other statePROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2016 –2025

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau data

Page 104: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Construction has shifted SouthSHARE OF TOTAL PERMIT ACTIV ITY BY REGION, 1960 AND 2014

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Building Permits Survey data

Page 105: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Nationally, households grew 27% from 1990 to 2010 five regions outpaced that growthHOUSEHOLD GROWTH RATE, 1990 –2010

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1990 and 2010

Page 106: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The South grows while the North slows1990-2010 SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH LESS 2010 SHARE OF ALL HOUSEHOLDS

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1990 and 2010

Page 107: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The South will capture 7.8 million of the 12.5 million households addedPROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY REGION (MILL IONS) , 2016 –2025

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

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Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Urban captured 21% of household growth—double its usual capture rateURBAN SHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 109: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

15% percent of Americans live urban, 21% live rurally, and 64% live suburban2015 US HOUSEHOLDS BY NEIGHBORHOOD ENVIRONMENT

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

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Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

9 categories of urban/suburban/rural bring clarity to where people liveHOUSEHOLD GROWTH RATE BY GEOGRAPHY TYPE (2000 –2010)

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

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Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Population growth has been skewed to urbanCHANGE IN POPULATION BY AGE, 2005 –2015

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of US Census Bureau Population Estimates and

2014 National Projections

+4.7 M +10.3 M

20–29

Young Adult Urban Years

55–64

Empty Nester Years

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The surban™ lifestyle

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

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Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

Young adults drive much less than their parents didPERCENT OF 20 –24 YEAR-OLDS WITH A DRIVER’S L ICENSE

Source: US Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics

Page 114: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

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Both urban and suburban locales will capture a high share of growthSHARE OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY DECADE

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC based on US Census Bureau data

Page 115: Demographic Clarity for Businesses - John Burns Real ......Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC calculations of Bureau of Economic Analysis data Those born in 1980 and later

Copyright © 2016 by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

THE FOLLOWING SOURCES WERE USED IN THE CREATION OF THESE EXHIBITS:

Bankrate August 2014 Financial Security Index

Bloomberg

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditures Survey

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Social and Economic Supplements to the Current Population Survey

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Vital Statistics Report

Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics and CDC

Department of Homeland Security

Fannie Mae National Housing Survey

Federal Housing Administration

Federal Housing Finance Agency

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Reserve Board 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances

Ford 2015 Trends, citing Pew Research and BAV Consulting Global Survey

Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)

Guttmacher Institute

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport Operating Statistics

National Association of Realtors®

National Institute of Health Care Management

New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax

Pew Research Center

S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index

Senn High School

Tax Policy Center

Trulia year-end 2012 American Dream Survey

U-Haul.com

US Census Bureau

US Census Bureau December 2014 Population Projections

US Census Bureau Decennial Census, American Community Survey, 2005-2013

US Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections

US Census Bureau, Characteristics of New Single-Family Houses Completed

US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

US Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 1950-2010

US Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey

US Department of Agriculture

US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics

US Department of Homeland Security

US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics

US Department of Transportation, Highway Statistics

US Social Security Administration

Our analysis includes data downloaded from IPUMS, which requests to be cited as:

IPUMS-USA: Steven Ruggles, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series:

Version 6.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2015.

IPUMS-CPS: Sarah Flood, Miriam King, Steven Ruggles, and J. Robert Warren. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series,

Current Population Survey: Version 4.0. [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2015.