Demographic change at small area levelSmall area statistics to develop public policy

Paul Norman

School of Geography, University of Leeds

ESRC RES-163-25-0012

Demographic change at small area levelSmall area statistics to develop public policy

Information relating to components of population change

• Counts of births, deaths, migration, etc.

• Rates of births, deaths, migration, etc.

• Estimates for past population & forecasts of the future

Following slides in no particular order• Facets are overlapping• Some conceptual, some practical

Time frame?

Past

• Estimates, based on evidence

Future

• Projections, trends

• Forecasts, assumptions

Length of

time-frame?

Long enough to identify trends

Long enough for policy

Too long less accurate

1981? 2031?

Small area geography?

Council Area

DataZone

Ward, Parish, Settlement

PostalSector

OutputArea

UnitPostcode

Familiar areasPrevious dataBoundary change?

Frozen geographyUnfamiliar areas?Back data?Future proof?

Small Area

Flexible,versatile

Technical challenge?Desire or need?

Sta

tistic

alT

radi

tiona

lF

utur

istic

al

Demographic detail?

Geographic

detail

Demographic

detail

Reliability?

Significance of rates?

Confidentiality?

Safe detail

Safe users

Safe data

Safe access

Data detail

Consistency vs. Currency?

Topics & variables

• Same as before

• Relevant to now / future

Geography

• Same as before / now, frozen into future

• Current / future geography, update old data

Old detail for

comparability

Current detail

for applicability

Estimates & lookups

Pre-calculated data?

• Simple: less reliable but transparent, regular & quick updates

• Sophisticated: opaque, time-consuming but robust & relevant

• Revise previous releases

• Estimates improved with hindsight but rates & interpretations change

UK Local

Comparability / standard area

ScotlandEurope

Methods

National coverage vs. Local knowledge?

Data on ‘hard to estimate’ groups & areas of fast change

National

• Consistent across all areas

• Simpler, more transparent

Local

• Immigrant & other sub-groups

• Institutions, Students, Military bases

• Travellers, Sleeping rough

• Planning inputs

National

coverage

Local

knowledge

Data sources on components?

Births & deaths• Current data no problem• Backdated time-series?

Migration• Administrative sources• National registration, but needs public support

Sub-groups• Ethnic groups• Occupational & social groups• Living arrangements & institutional populations

Consistency & agreement between agencies?

UK Local

Census

• Questions & categories of answers

• Geographical hierarchy

• Confidentiality

• Commissioned tables

Scotland

Vital Statistics

• Demographic & geographic detail

• Time scales of availability

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