democratization strategy in myanmar presentation at umfcci

7/29/2019 Democratization Strategy in Myanmar Presentation at UMFCCI

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Democratization Strategy

in Myanmar

Dr. Min Zaw Oo

At UMFCCI

December 1, 2012


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South Africa after 18 Years of

Transition

The Fact is that in South Africa, transition is

taking its time,"

"I'm convinced it's a solid democracy and it will

remain so, but it's not a healthy democracy.


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F.W. de Klerk (May 11, 2012)


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Autocracy

Transition to

Democracy

Democratization

Democratic

Consolidation


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1. Autocracy (Structure) 2. Transition (Event)

3. Democratization (Process) 4. Democratic Consolidation (Structure)


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Autocracy (Structure) &Transition (Event)


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Democratization (Process)

Top Down (Reverse Construction)


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Democratic Consolidation (Structure)

Rooted Structure (the only game in town)


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Autocracy

Transition to

Democracy = Conflict

Democratization

Democratic

Consolidation


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1) Direct Foreign Intervention

Huntington's 2nd Wave after the WWII

Iraq, Panama


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2) Transition through Liberalization()

1) Elite Driven Transition

(Taiwan in 1992. Spain in 1977=Broad-basedTransitional Regime)

2) Formal Liberalization of Limited PoliticalParticipation

(Peru 1956; Nicaragua 1990)

3) Tolerance of Limited Political Action

(Philippines 1987; Indonesia 1999)


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3) Transition by Replacement/Adverse Regime

Change

Regime collapse

Violent or non-violent mobilizations

(Romania Revolution 1990)


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4) Transition by Concession

Former regime conceded the oppositions

demands

South Africa in 1994


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Direct Foreign Intervention 7 (6%)

Transition through Liberalization 86 (75%)

Elite Driven Liberalization 30 (26%)

Formal Liberalization of Limited

Political Participation

23 (20%)

Liberalization by Tolerating PoliticalActivities

70 (61%)

Adverse Regime Change 42 (37%)

Transition by Concession 66 (57%)


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Liberalization()%

Liberalization %


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Liberalization

Elite Driven Liberalization

Formal Liberalization of Limited Political

Participation

Liberalization by Tolerating Political Activities


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(Regime Change)

Liberalization


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Regime Change ?

4

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Regime Change Non-Regime Change


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Liberalization ?

12

74

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Consolidated (Liberalization) Unconsolidated (Liberalization)


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Liberalization

8

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


(1 year)

Otherwise


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?

1) 2) 3)

4)

5) 6)


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One-party rules are almost 4.5 times likely to

consolidate democratization.

Military regimes are almost two times less

likely to consolidate.


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Former Regime Type Asia South

America

EuropeTotal

Consolidated

Countries

One-party

Military

Military-Civilian

Limited Multi-party

2 (2)*

0(5)

0(9)

0 (4)

0 (0)

1 (15)

3 (6)

0 (7)

7 (20)

1 (1)

0 (0)

1 (4)

9

2

3

1

Total 2 (20) 4 (28) 9 (25) 15


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?where military governments have given up powermore or less voluntarily, those militaries willcontinue to have substantial influence in their

society after their withdrawal from power(Huntington, 1996).

(%)


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?

( )

Institution


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Autocracy (Structure) Problem with Structure Change


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() (/)

(/)


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( ) ()


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1) 2) Elite Driven Liberalization

3) ( )

4)


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Factionalism in Elite Driven

Liberalization

Moderate boom

( )


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(/)(/ ) (/)

(Democratic Consolidation) /


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Liberalization Transition (2015) Democratization

Democratic Consolidation(Longer Term)


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Structure () and Agent ()

Structure ()

Agent ()


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Structure () and Agent ()

Liberalization & Transition Phase

Agent

Structure

Institution


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Structure and Institutions

Economic development

Quality of life

Civil society development

Democratic institutional development, such as

judicial systems, parliament, and political

parties


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Security Sector Reform


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(Power Based)

(Rights Based)

(Conflict Resolution Based)


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Liberalization Transition

(Democratization)

(Security Sector Reform)

democratization strategy in myanmar presentation at umfcci

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