Democratization of the Middles East

First section: Causes of Uprisings: Socioeconomic and political grievances Youth unemployment, relative deprivation and a fall in standard of living not the main driving force but were reflected in demands of the protesters Corrupt government seen as illegitimate Excessive repression of political and social pluralism

Reasons for success or failure of the Arab Uprisings to move towards Democracy: Popular mobilization of pre-existing civil society and strong political opposition groups:Tunisia was successful as its main trade union (UGTT) was instrumental in organizing demonstrationsEgypt and Libya had a lack of strong pre-existing opposition structures so it was difficult to channel popular uprisings into institutionalized political groups and institutions

Degree to which regimes could retain support of key institutions eg. Military:Tunisia and Egypt army moved against the presidentsSyria, Yemen and Bahrain military did not and regimes have not fallenLibya Foreign intervention moved against dictator

Degree to which regimes could retain support from significant social groups:Regimes of Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen retained support and therefore the revolts lacked the all-engulfing nature of Tunisian and Egyptian events

The Arab Uprisings across the region can be placed in 3 categories:

1. Where mass civic revolts led to the peaceful overthrow of dictators eg. Tunisia Zine el Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt Hosni Mubarek

Prospects for democratization: Most hopeful Tunisia has a combination of longstanding state institutions, a historically vibrant civil society and political class and widespread consensus in seeking the ouster of dictators. Egypt the worst excesses of previous regime reduced but continuing dominance of the army and the enduring strength of political and socioeconomic establishments mean change will be limited

2. Where Uprisings led to internal fractures, violence and civil War eg. Libya, revolt invited foreign intervention to overthrow Gadhafi, Bahrain, uprising suppressed Yemen political confrontation and Syria, government continue to suppress uprising

Prospects for democratization: Not good. Libya weak state institutions and civil society Yemen regime change may mean state collapse Bahrain movement suppressed Syria war

3. Arab states which did not experience major upheavals eg. Morocco and Jordan, monarchies offer political concessions

Prospects for democratization: change will be superficial-Morocco and Jordan make constitutional amendments will permit a greater degree of political contestation but monarchial rule will not be compromised.

Key Question- Are Arab monarchs able to withstand the Arab Spring?

Models of democratic change across the region emerging from Arab Uprisings 1. Arab republics where entire regime is toppled2. Monarchies movement to constitutional reform but monarchial structure of regime remains

Reasons for monarchies resiliency: They can foster a degree of legitimacy in their governance and presidents cannot.Legitimacy through nation building: Monarchies have formed a large component of states national identity since the creation of the states in 20th century eg. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait and Morocco.Legitimacy through divine right: Monarchies of Jordan and Moroccos claim by divine right as descendants to Prophet Mohammed Kind Abdullah of Saudi Arabia referred to as Custodian fo the 2 Holy Mosques affirmed by the political authority of al-Wahhab, the ulema and the judicial system based on Sharia LawLegitimacy through historical right: Morrocco, Oman and Bahrain eg. Alauite dynasty since 1666

Structural factors institutional flexibility and attentive management of regimes supportersLinchpin monarchies Jordan mobilizes and contains political opposition and Morocco promotes political pluralism. William Zartman as long as the King gives parties a minimum consultative roleand keep alive future hopes of governing, they will not challenge the system. Liberalized authoritarianismDynastic monarchies Military overthrow difficult as members of the royal family embedded in key positions in military institutions.Wide spread presence in society provides a service to foresee possible unrest among citizens and prepare relative immunity to unrest.Monarchies that are rentier states use oil-wealth to co-opt political allies e.g. Saudi Arabia increases benefits for citizens after uprisings

Impact of GCC club of Authoritarian kingsGCC appease uprising in GCC countries like Bahrain - $20 billion in aid development projects given. Also sends military support to Bahrain.

Second Section: Demystifying the Arab spring: Lisa Anderson

The Arab revolutions were not a product of social media, the Facebook campaigners are the modern incarnation of Arab nationalist networks whose broadsheets disseminated strategies for civil disobedience through the MENA in the years after WW1.

2011 Arab revolts in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya do not represent how the globalisation of the norms of civic engagement shaped the protesters' aspirations. Nor is it about how activists used technology to share ideas/tactics. The critical issue is how and why these ambitions and techniques resonated in their various local contexts.

Tunisia demo's spiralled toward the capital from the neglected rural areas, finding common cause with repressed labour movement. Need to deal with class divisions. Importantly, the military has not played a significant role in the revolution, which has helped keep the country stable. The power of the labour movements is also crucial as repeated strikes fuelled protests. New leadership must incorporate a generation of youth with only theoretical exposure to freedom of belief, expression, and assembly into a system that fosters open political debate and contestation. Also must respond to demands of labour unions.

Egypt urbane & cosmopolitan youth in the major cities organised uprisings. Must redesign institutions of govt. Military has enormous influence on Egyptian society. As a result, the military leadership remains largely hostile to economic liberalisation and private-sector growth. Repairing decades of public-sector corrosions may prove problematic, everything is cheap yet most transactions such as education, obtaining driver licenses, are accompanied by off-the-books payments. There is a need to re-establish trust between police and people. The organisation of protesters shows optimism for the future.

Libya bands of armed rebels in eastern provinces ignited protests, revealing tribal & regional cleavages that have beset country for decades. Need to recover from bloody civil war. Libya has no system of political alliances, network of economic associations or national org's of any kind. Libya must restore security and introduce law & order. Further difficulties lie ahead; reviving trust across clans and provinces; reconstructing public admin; strengthening civil society through political parties, open media, NGO's. Decades of international isolation have left poorly educated and ill equipped. Libya confronts the complexity of state formation and constructing the rudiments of civil society, not democratisation. It will need to construct national identity and public admin out of Qadaffi's shambles.

Revolutionaries shared calls for personal dignity and responsive govt, yet reflected divergent economic grievances and social dynamics

While Egypt struggles with the long shadow of military rule, Tunisia and Libya need to redefine relationship between privileged capital cities and their sullen hinterlands.

Understanding the revolutions of 2011 Jack A Goldstone

Proportion of youth in ME extraordinarily high; since 1990, youth population aged 15-29 has grown 50% in Libya & Tunisia, 65% in Egypt and 125% in Yemen and due to the modernisation policies of their sultanistic govts, many of them have been able to go to university.

This paper focuses on what led to the revolutions and the characteristics of sultanistic regimes, so not too much relevant to the topic.

Author predicts the future to be a flawed democracy- often corrupt and prone to authoritarian tendencies, however this article was written before Qadaffi was formally toppled.

the MENA region is clearly not on the verge of a golden era of democratic governance.

The rise of the Islamists Shadi Hamid

US is threatened by political Islam and whether they can respect democracy, pluralism and womens rights

Democracy will make the region more unpredictable and some govts less amenable to US security interests

Islamist groups include muslim brotherhood in Egypt and Jordan and al Nahda in Tunisia.

Islamists are staunch social conservatives, they believe womens rights should be limited and sexes segregated. Mainstream groups have shown considerable flexibility on core ideological concerns. E.g. Egyptian MB instead of calling for an Islamic state, called for a 'civil, democratic state with an islamic reference

Overview of countries before and after Arab UprisingsEgypt status - Liberalised authoritarianism under Mubarak, currently unclear however most likely remain the same Democratisation: Seems unlikely with renewed military regime, however new constitution (undemocratically formed with minimal public input) does improve womens rights and freedom of religion. There are still severe limits on civil liberties as can be seen in last months mass trial where hundreds were given the death penalty for organising a protest where one police man was killed Political Participation: 7 elections and referendums for new parliament and constitution however lack of education and lack of access to constitution hinders any real progress in terms of political participation. Authoritarian backtracking the 2010 parliamentary elections were a farce compared to the 2005 elections in 2010 the Muslim Brotherhood was win only one seat and in 2005 they won 88 seats, almost cracking 2/3rds of the majority ruling party. Political Pluralism: Muslim brotherhood banned and forced underground therefore political pluralism is poor. Opposition to SCAF are also harassed or arrested. Currently, there is no serious opposition to SCAF and Sisi.

Tunisia status Liberalised authoritarianism under Ben Ali, current transition through democratisation Democratisation: fair elections, democratic constitution, prospects are good. Political Participation: fair elections, Al-Nahda listened to the people when they wanted them out and a new independent govt, constitution was approved by majority of constituent assembly. Political Pluralism: Islamist party Al-Nahda have not been outlawed like Muslim brotherhood so this is a good sign for pluralism. Current govt is independent and allows opposition.

Libya status was a closed autocracy under Gaddafi, during transitional period NTC assumed power but were made to resign and GNC voted in. Democratisation: freedom rating improved from 7 to 4 due to successful elections, proliferation and sustained activism of media outlets and civil society organizations. Security however remains an issue. Political Participation: successful elections (first elections since 1965) for the General National Congress, increased transparency in drafting a constitution. Political Pluralism: elections included candidates from a range of political and regional backgrounds, more than 100 parties registered in election.

Yemen status autocracy under Saleh, he resigned and transferred power to his vice-president Hadi who was elected in (as the only candidate) with 99.8% of vote Democratisation: doubtful there will be any change from Saleh Political Participation: Political Pluralism: although supposedly a multi party system, dominated by General Peoples Congress and has been since unification.

Morocco status liberalised autocracy. Democratisation: no government change during revolutions but constitutional reforms and political liberalisation promised Political Participation: Morocco is not an electoral democracy. Most power is held by the king and his close advisers. Even under the 2011 constitution, the monarch can dissolve Parliament, rule by decree, and dismiss or appoint cabinet members. He sets national and foreign policy, commands the armed forces and intelligence services, and presides over the judicial system. One of the kings constitutional titles is commander of the faithful, giving his authority a claim to religious legitimacy. The king is also the majority stakeholder in a vast array of private and public sector firms; according to Forbes, Mohammed VI is worth $2.5 billion, making him one of the worlds wealthiest people (Freedom house, 2013). Political Pluralism: independent non-governmental organizations are quite active, but the authorities monitor Islamist groups, arrest suspected extremists, and harass other groups that offend the government.

Syria remains a one party regime with Assad clinging onto power. Democratisation: Freedom rating has worsened in 2014. Political rights are non-existent. Political Participation: Minimal turnouts in referendums. Political Pluralism: In the formal political system, parties based on religious, tribal, or regional affiliation are banned. A 2012 constitutional referendum relaxed rules regarding the participation of non-Baathist parties, but the armed conflict and on-going state restrictions have continued to limit political activity in practice.

Jordan liberalised autocracy, no regime change, reforms promised look at