democratic voters overwhelmingly predict hillary clinton will win nomination
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Republicans Less Unified on Eventual NomineeTRANSCRIPT
NBC News Online Poll: Public Opinion on 2016 Presidential Primaries Embargoed for release after 4:00 PM Friday, April 10, 2015
Democratic Voters Overwhelmingly Predict Hillary Clinton Will Win Nomination;
Republicans Less Unified on Eventual Nominee The 2016 presidential race is finally getting its official candidates. On the Republican side, Rand Paul jumped into the race on Tuesday, Ted Cruz announced his candidacy two weeks ago, and Marco Rubio is expected to announce on Monday. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton will officially announce on Sunday what everyone has expected for a long time. We expect a lot of volatility in polling this far ahead of actual primaries and caucuses, particularly on the Republican side. Levels of support will likely bounce around as the candidates start to become better known by the American people. So in addition to asking the traditional vote question, the latest NBC News Online Survey conducted by SurveyMonkey asked Americans whom they expected would win their party’s nomination. Voters who identified as Democratic or who lean toward the Democratic Party are much more unified. More than two-‐thirds of Democratic voters say Hillary Clinton will clinch the nomination.
Democratic & Democratic-‐Leaning Voters
Who would you vote for?
Who do you expect to win?
Hillary Clinton 50% 68% Elizabeth Warren 16 1 Joe Biden 7 5 Bernie Sanders 5 1 Martin O’Malley 2 -‐ Jim Webb 1 -‐ Someone else 1 1 Wouldn’t vote/Don’t know 19 23 No answer 1 1
On the GOP side, Jeb Bush emerges as the expected leader, with 24 percent of Republican and Republican-‐leaning voters saying he will win, regardless of whom they support. But another 37 percent of Republican voters say they don’t know who will win.
Republican & Republican-‐Leaning Voters
Who would you vote for?
Who do you expect to win?
Scott Walker 13% 8% Jeb Bush 12 24 Chris Christie 8 5 Ted Cruz 7 8 Rand Paul 7 7 Ben Carson 7 1 Mike Huckabee 6 3 Marco Rubio 6 3 Rick Perry 3 3 John Kasich 2 1 Bobby Jindal 1 -‐ Lindsey Graham 1 1 Someone else 5 2 Wouldn’t vote/Don’t know 21 37 No answer 2 2
Scott Walker and Jeb Bush head up the lengthy list of Republican primary contenders, with Walker getting 13 percent support and Bush getting 12 percent among Republican and Republican-‐leaning voters. But their levels of support are not significantly different from the names that follow. More than 1 in 5 Republican voters say they don’t know or wouldn’t vote for one of the candidates listed.
TOPLINES [ASK OF REPUBLICANS AND LEAN REPUBLICANS] REPPRIM. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-‐12] 4.6-‐8.15 Jeb Bush 12% Ben Carson 6% Chris Christie 7% Ted Cruz 7% Lindsey Graham 1% Mike Huckabee 6% Bobby Jindal 1% John Kasich 3% Rand Paul 7% Rick Perry 3% Marco Rubio 6% Scott Walker 12% Wouldn’t vote/ Don’t know 22% Someone else (please specify) 4% No answer 2% RWINP. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect to win the Republican nomination for president in 2016? 4.6-‐8.15 Jeb Bush 23% Ben Carson 1% Chris Christie 4% Ted Cruz 8% Lindsey Graham 1% Mike Huckabee 3% Bobby Jindal 0% John Kasich 1% Rand Paul 6% Rick Perry 3% Marco Rubio 3% Scott Walker 8% Don’t know 37% Someone else (please specify) 1% No answer 2%
[ASK OF DEMOCRATS AND LEAN DEMOCRATS] DEMPRIM. Here is a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE RESPONSES]
4.6-‐8.15 Joe Biden 6% Hillary Clinton 47% Martin O’Malley 2% Bernie Sanders 5% Elizabeth Warren 15% Jim Webb 1% Wouldn’t vote/Don’t know 22% Someone else (please specify) 1% No answer 1%
DWINP. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you expect to win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016?
4.6-‐8.15 Joe Biden 5% Hillary Clinton 65% Martin O’Malley 0% Bernie Sanders 1% Elizabeth Warren 3% Jim Webb 0% Don’t know 25% Someone else (please specify) 1% No answer 1%
METHODOLOGY The NBC News-‐SurveyMonkey Poll was conducted online April 6-‐8, 2015 among a national sample of 2,052 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-‐probability survey were selected from among those who have volunteered to participate in the SurveyMonkey Contribute panel. This SurveyMonkey Audience project was run using a balanced sample. The process of sample balancing starts by setting targets for desired numbers of completed responses among certain groups (in this case: by gender, age, and race groupings). After that, a specified number of potential respondents are allocated to the project based on expected completion rates. Panelists are either linked directly to the survey from an email invitation, or routed to the survey after agreeing to take an additional survey after completing a prior one. Once the survey is put into the field, the system calculates actual completion rates by group, and uses that information to re-‐adjust the flow of new panelists to the survey.
SurveyMonkey panelists are emailed no more than once every three days, and on average panelists receive one email every two weeks. SurveyMonkey also imposes a daily limit on the number of surveys a panelist can take. Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education and region using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, along with data from the Kaiser Health Tracking Poll on evangelicalism to reflect the demographic composition of the U.S.. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-‐selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys and polls may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 1000 independent samples and calculate the standard deviation of the weighted average using those samples, producing an error estimate. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead." The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (gender):
Group Unweighted N Plus or minus Total sample 2052 3.0 percentage points Republican 424 6.3 percentage points Democrat 798 4.7 percentage points Independent 796 4.6 percentage points 18-‐29 315 7.5 percentage points 30-‐44 376 6.2 percentage points 45-‐59 754 4.5 percentage points 60+ 607 5.3 percentage points White 1383 3.8 percentage points Black 204 9.0 percentage points
Hispanic 317 7.2 percentage points Other 148 12.3 percentage points