demand for higher education programs - gray … april gray...confidential 5 gray tracks search...

Data • Insights • Strategy

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Data • Insights • Strategy

www.GrayAssociates.com

Demand For Higher Education Programs

Results through April 2018

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Who Is Gray?

Program and MarketEvaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System

§ Program profiles

§ Program location

§ Market selection

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Employer Requirements

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1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Program of the Month: Psychology3. Summary

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§ We started tracking Inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Gray has tracked demand for several years.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.

§ In April, searches were only down 1%.

Google Search Trends: Programs

Program searches on Google are down 5% this year.

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000


Google Searches200-Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions

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§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher-education brands.§ April searches were flat year over year.

Google Search Trends (Brands)

Brand searches are also down 5% this year.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000


Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018

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Inquiries decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2017.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018

-10%


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§ February reached last year’s volume.§ March was down 7% year-over-year.§ April volume actually rose 2% year-over-year.


The long and steep decline in inquiry volume may be slowing.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+2%

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§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 53%.§ Since then, conversion rates have fallen, but are still beating the baseline by 22%.§ Q1 will continue to improve for another month or two.

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017 and Q1 2018, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

+51%

+28%

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.


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§ December 2017 was also down 10% year-over-year.§ February, March, and April 2018 are down, but the gaps are likely to close as they mature.

Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For January 2018 inquiries, total conversions fell 8% year-over-year.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.

-8% YoY

Immature Months1


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§ For the last five months, prices have been over $46.00.§ In April, prices rose 4.6% year-over-year to $47.46.

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

For 13 out of the past 14 months, the average price paid per inquiry has risen year-over-year.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.61 46.42 47.46 - - - - - - - -

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48$50

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

+4.6% YoY

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

Business Administration has the highest spending on inquiries.

1.000.75

0.480.440.44

0.360.29

0.240.24

0.22

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Business Administration and Management

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Health/Health Care Administration

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Psychology, General

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

HVAC

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design

Public Administration

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(April 2018)


Index to Max

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§ The program with the largest budget, Business Administration, fell 8% year-over-year.

Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

In April, year-over-year spending increased for 6 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.


53%

29%

26%

14%

13%

3%

-8%

-15%

-15%

-23%

-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55%

Public Administration

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Psychology, General

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design

Health/Health Care Administration

HVAC

Business Administration and Management

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

April 2018 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

% Change Year Over Year

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Inquiries for Online Programs

On average, inquiries for online programs grew 5% year-over-year in 2017.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018

+5%


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Inquiries for Online Programs

Inquiries for online programs grew 4% year-over-year in April.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+4%

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§ The University of Phoenix and Grand Canyon University account for 75% of the imports

Import/Export of Online Students (based on NC-SARA Data)

Among SARA States, AZ is the largest importer of online students

*The National Council for State Authorization Reciprocity Agreements (NC-SARA) tracks out-of-state learning placements for higher education institutions in the majority of U.S. States. The data excludes institutions located in California, Florida, Massachusetts, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands, but does include students from these states and territories.


42,060

42,983

50,058

53,778

56,532

57,770

59,086

88,635

95,826

232,830

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

New York

Iowa

Minnesota

Georgia

Virginia

New Hampshire

Colorado

Utah

West Virginia

Arizona

10 Largest Importers of Online Students

36,923

39,111

39,791

40,929

51,624

55,959

63,986

73,653

98,911

104,365

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000

Washington

New York

Pennsylvania

Illinois

Virginia

North Carolina

Georgia

Florida

Texas

California

10 Largest Exporters of Online Students

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Heat Map of Online Inquires per Capita – by State

Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina produce the most inquiries per capita for online higher-education programs.

RGB(126,0,168)334 - 248,945RGB(137,17,177) 262 - 325RGB(149,35,187) 241 - 254RGB(160,52,197) 215 - 220RGB(172,70,206) 193 - 214RGB(183,87,216) 182 - 192RGB(195,105,226)158 - 175RGB(206,122,235)145 - 157RGB(218,140,245)139 - 143RGB(230,158,255)102 - 130

Online Inquiries per Capita


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Heat Map of Online Inquires per Capita – by County

The top 5 counties by most inquiries per capita for online higher education programs are located in Georgia (2), Texas (1), and Mississippi (2).


RGB(126,0,168)389 - 20,168RGB(137,17,177) 315 - 386RGB(149,35,187) 272 - 315RGB(160,52,197) 242 - 272RGB(172,70,206) 222 - 242RGB(183,87,216) 202 - 222RGB(195,105,226)181 - 202RGB(206,122,235)155 - 180RGB(218,140,245)123 - 155RGB(230,158,255)15 - 122

Online Inquiries per Capita

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

On average, student demand for on-campus programs fell 14% year-over-year in 2017.

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018


-14%

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In April, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 9% year-over-year.

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018


-9% YoY

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§ Houston was up the most this month (7%), after falling 9% YOY in March.

Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

In April 2018, two of The Big 5 Cities grew inquiries year-over year.

-26% -21%

-31%

-11% -14%

7% 4%

0% -6% -8%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Houston, TX Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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The Big 5 Programs: April Growth Year-over-Year

Only 2 of The Big 5 Programs fell in April.

21%

3% 0%

-7% -10% -15%

-10% -5% 0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25%

Healthcare Administration

Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Business Administration

Medical Assistant

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries


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The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All 5 of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 70% or more.

172%

111%93%

72% 70%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Electrical Engineering

Computer Programming

Cybersecurity Public Administration

Accounting and Business

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in March Inquiries

§ Electrical Engineering, Cybersecurity, and Public Administration are repeats from last month.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.


Also in March Fast 5

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Fastest-growing Programs

The fastest-growing programs are all programs that take 2 years or fewer to complete.

11%

15%

15%

16%

22%

26%

32%

35%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Electrician

Surgical Technology/Technologist

Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General

Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering …

Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and Instructor

Medical Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiation …

Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist

Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist

Fastest-growing ProgramsApril Google Searches

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Shrinking Programs

Several teaching programs are falling fast.

-69%

-46%

-44%

-43%

-36%

-28%

-27%

-23%

-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Hotel/Motel Administration/Management

Education, General

Hospitality Administration/Management, General

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General

Criminal Justice/Safety Studies

Elementary Education and Teaching

Chemistry, General

Teacher Education, Multiple Levels

Fastest-declining ProgramsApril Google Searches

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Fastest-growing Brands

The fastest-growing brands are a mix of very different schools.

12%

13%

14%

15%

18%

20%

22%

26%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

University of Texas at Austin

College for America, SNHU

Florida Career College

University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus

University of Wyoming

West Coast University

Western Governors University

Universal Technical Institute

Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches

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§ Psychology tends to be a more competitive program, therefore the cost per click is much higher than that of the average program.

Cost Per Click (CPC) – Google Keywords

In 2017 and Q1 2018, search costs for Psychology are falling overall, but very erratic for online.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

7/1/17 8/1/17 9/1/17 10/1/17 11/1/17 12/1/17 1/1/18 2/1/18 3/1/18 4/1/18

Google SearchesCost Per Click

CPC - Psychology

CPC - Psychology (Online)

CPC - All Programs

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§ The mean salary is $81,000.§ The median salary is $86,000.§ But, a graduate degree is required to become a psychologist.

Psychologist: Salary

Salaries are typically more than $75,000 for Psychologists.

264

493

949

2,876

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. May 1, 2017-April 30, 2018SOC Codes 19-3031 (Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists), 19-3032 (Industrial-Organizational Psychologists), and 19-3039 (Psychologists, All Other) were used in this analysis.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level

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§ Undergraduate psychology majors go into a variety of fields with reasonable average wages.

Psychologist: Bachelor’s Graduate Salaries

For graduates with a Bachelor’s degree in psychology, wages are quite different.

$32,828

$70,354

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000

Age less than 30

Age over 30

ACS Salaries By Program, For Bachelor’s Degree Graduates

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Psychologist: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, 83% require graduate education.

0%

0%

7%

55%

38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. May 1, 2017-April 30, 2018SOC Codes 19-3031 (Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists), 19-3032 (Industrial-Organizational Psychologists), and 19-3039 (Psychologists, All Other) were used in this analysis.

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Psychologist: Employer Requirements

0.99

0.86

0.74

0.67

0.67

0.64

0.64

0.62

0.58

0.58

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Interpret psychological test results

Forecast phenomena based on statistical or mathematical …

Perform statistical analysis or modeling

Collect statistical data

Conduct field research

Analyze scientific or investigative findings

Interpret ability or achievement test results

Plan social behavior learning activities

Collect psychological or social sciences related data

Perform psychological research

Evaluate client progress against measurable goals

Evaluate mental health conditions or disorders

Evaluate patient functioning and capabilities

Evaluate patient or client response to therapy or treatment

Psychologist: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job

Low Fit with Job High

Source: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Psychology, General (42.0101)

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Psychologist: Program Scorecard

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Psychologist: Market Rank

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Psychologists: Completions per 1,000 Population (Ages 18-34)

New Hampshire has nearly double the market saturation as the next closest market.

2.26

2.34

2.38

2.47

2.51

2.63

2.66

2.75

2.81

4.93

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00

New York

Connecticut

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Minnesota

Virginia

Massachusetts

Vermont

District of Columbia

New Hampshire

Psychology Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Highest States)

0.58

0.98

1.09

1.17

1.17

1.17

1.21

1.23

1.25

1.25

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00

Alaska

Delaware

South Carolina

Nevada

Louisiana

Texas

Mississippi

Oklahoma

Washington

Kentucky

Psychology Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Lowest States)

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§ The decline in total inquiries seems to be slowing.

§ Both Google search and Gray inquiry data confirm this trend.

§ Conversions exceed our baseline, but are off their peak.

§ Prices for inquiries are rising.

§ In this environment, you will need:

- Great data to inform decisions on programs and markets to invest in.

- The ability to take share, so you can sustain enrollment in a declining market.

Key Demand Trends and Observations

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Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836

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Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast

Please join us next month!

June Webcast(May Results)

Thursday, June 21st at 2:00 PM EDT

demand for higher education programs - gray … april gray...confidential 5 gray tracks search...

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