demand and supply forecasting

7/30/2019 Demand and Supply Forecasting

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Welcome


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Models and techniques of manpower

demand and supply forecasting

Presented by,

Anuraj k


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Manpower Planning The development of strategies to match the supply of

workers to the availability of jobs at organizational,regional, or national level. Manpower planning involves

reviewing current manpower resources, forecasting futurerequirements and availability, and taking steps to ensurethat the supply of people and skills meets demand.

A more current term for manpower planning atorganizational level is human resource planning.


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Demand Forecasting

It is the process of estimating the requirement of different

kinds of personnel in future

The basis of manpower forecasts should be the annual

budget and long term corporate plan translated into activity

levels for each function an department


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Techniques of Demand Forecasting

Managerial Judgment

Work Study Technique

Statistical Techniques

Delphi Technique

Computer Analysis


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Managerial Judgement

The most typical method for smaller company

In this method the managers simply sit down, think about

their future work load and how many people they need

It adopt both the bottom-up' and top-down approach.


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Work-load Analysis

In work load analysis the manpower expert need to find out

sales forecasts, work schedules and thus determine the

manpower required per unit of product.

Work-force Analysis

In work-force analysis they keep a sufficient margin for

absenteeism,labour turn over and idle time on the basis of

past experience


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StatisticalTechniques

It is the technique of using high speedcomputers and new mathematical techniques

The main statistical tools are

Ratios and Trend analysis

Regression analysis

Bureks-smith model


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Ratios and Trend analysis

Ratios, which are calculated for the basis of past data

relating to number of employees

The data are collected in different levels

Future manpower requirement is calculated on the

basis of established ratios

The value depend upon accurate records and realistic

estimate of future activity levels and the effect of

improved performance


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Regression Analysis

The technique is used to estimate the manpower

requirement of an organization's at a future point of

time

It used when dependent and independent variables are

functionally related to each other


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Bureks-Smith Model

In this method a mathematical model developed for

personnel forecasting

En = (Lagg+G)1/x

Y Enit is estimated level of personnel demand in nplanning period.

Lagg- it is overall turnover or aggregate level of current business

activity n rupees.

G- is the total growth in business activity anticipated through period

n in terms of rupees.

X-it is the average productivity improvement

Y-is conversion figure relating todays overall activity


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Delphi Technique The objective of the Delphi technique is to predict future

situations by integrating the independent opinions of

experts

A major goal of the Delphi technique is to avoid direct

confrontation of experts, since some individuals may be

unduly influenced by others because of status differences,

resulting in compromise of good ideas


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Computer Analysis

MANPLAN was developed by General Electric" to

overcome human resource modeling problems (such as the

overwhelming mathematical complexity that can be

brought into such planning efforts).

One final merit of MANPLAN is that running the

computer model is relatively inexpensive.


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This computer program needs for its forecast, asking suchquestions as:

1. How many different product lines do you manufacture?

2. How many months does your forecast cover?

Once these questions are answered and fed into thecomputer, the computer can produce a forecast estimatingaverage human resource levels required to meet product

demand. MANPLAN also provides for ranges of possiblehuman resource needs for any period


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Summery

. The process of human resource planning is closely

related to other personnel functions, such as selection,

training and development, and performance evaluation. In

order to make effective planning decisions, managers mustfirst be able to forecast what their human resource needs

will be. We have discussed a number of techniques that

firms can utilize in forecasting their demand for human

resources.


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Reference

T.N.Chhabra, HumanResourceManagement

BiswanathGhosh, HumanResources

DevelopmentandManagement


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Questions?


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