delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · presentation 24 june 2020 delivering growth,...

56
Winemaker: Carmen Stevens, South Africa FY20 Results Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated

Upload: others

Post on 26-Jun-2020

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Winemaker: Carmen Stevens, South Africa

FY20 Results Presentation

24 June 2020

Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated

Page 2: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation2

Disclaimer

This presentation (the “Presentation”) has been produced for discussion purposes only. The information contained in the Presentation is not intended for any other use. The Presentation is being made onlyto, and is only directed at, persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated (“relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on the Presentation or any of its contents.The Presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase, any shares or other securities in Naked Wines plc (the "Company"), nor shall it orany part of it, or the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decisions relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendationregarding the shares and other securities of the Company.

All aspects of the Presentation must be independently confirmed by any recipient of the Presentation and must be considered in the context of more fulsome and independently-obtained information thatmay be required for any decision regarding the Presentation’s subject matter. The financial information referenced in the Presentation does not contain sufficient detail to allow a full understanding of theCompany's results. For more detailed information, the entire text of the results announcement for the year ended 30 March 2020 can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Company's website(www.nakedwinesplc.co.uk). Any recipient of the Presentation should determine, in consultation with its own legal, tax, regulatory, accounting and other pertinent advisors, all economic risks and merits, aswell as legal, tax, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences, of any transaction as it pertains to them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of futureperformance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to any aspect of the Presentation. The Company accepts no responsibility for, and expressly disclaims all liabilitiesrelating to, any loss, whether direct or indirect, or any other kind of damage, resulting from reliance upon or use of information contained in the Presentation.

Certain statements included or incorporated by reference within the Presentation may constitute “forward-looking statements” in respect of the Company’s operations, performance, prospects and/orfinancial condition. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied bythose statements. Accordingly, no assurance can be given that any particular expectation will be met and reliance should not be placed on any forward-looking statement. Nothing in the Presentationshould be construed as a profit forecast. All forward-looking statements relating to the Presentation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.

No party makes any representation, whether express or implied, with respect to the completeness or accuracy of the Presentation, or for the fitness of the information in the Presentation for any purpose.

Nothing in the Presentation shall be construed by any party as a binding or legally enforceable commitment, contract or offer to contract with respect to its subject matter. The Presentation neither imposesany obligation, nor grants any rights with respect to, any service or transaction referenced in the Presentation, nor does it impose on any party a duty or obligation to conclude any such agreement orcommitment.

The Presentation is to be construed as of the date of its creation and is subject to change at any time without notice. No party has any obligation to update any information contained in the Presentation atany time.

Any person receiving the Presentation is deemed to have accepted these legal notices and the fact that such notices apply even if the Presentation in any way is shown to be erroneous, incomplete orbased upon incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions, irrespective of any responsibility of the Company. To the extent permitted by law, all legal considerations arisingfrom the Presentation shall be governed by English law.

Page 3: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation3

Overview: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated

• FY20 results marginally ahead of expectations– 14% revenue growth

• Significant improvement in sales retention and 20-year payback metrics driven by strong second half and COVID acceleration in final weeks of year

– 83% sales retention– 4.9x 20-year payback

• Strong balance sheet with £55m net cash gives flexibility

• Well positioned for an accelerated shift to online

Page 4: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Winemaker: Tom Puyabert, Spain

James Crawford

Group CFO

Page 5: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation5

A reshaped, well funded, asset-light group

Reduced asset base • Divested of fixed assets: Majestic stores

• Reduced working capital

Converts to cash• £55m cash on hand at year end

– Covers >100% of Angel Funds– Or 2 years fixed cost base

• Up to £23m to follow– Escrow– Store sales– Brexit contingent consideration– Loan note

Net Asset Base (exc. Intangibles) (£m)

£506m6%

£12m£6.1m

£203m14%

£(1.4)m£1.6m

SalesSales growthAdj EBITAdj EBIT YoY

Net other assetsNet working capitalDeferred consideration / assets for saleNet cash / (debt)

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2019 2020

Note: FY20 relates to continuing businesses only

Page 6: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation6

Business model delivering consistently

Repeatcontribution

+15%to £45.7m

Repeatcustomer

sales retention

+2pptsto 83%

Sales

+14%to £203m

Investment

+20%to £22.9m

£112m; +43%Future value generated

Payback

+0.8xto 4.9x

ActiveAngels

+11%to 594k

Page 7: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation7

FY20 SALES

Largest market, USA, delivering fastest growth

• US market clear leader in both scale and growth

• Growth accelerated into H2 in main markets– Returned to growth in investment– COVID acceleration late March

• Maintained investment discipline in Australia

FY20 SALES GROWTH

39%

45%

16% 20%

11%

3%

Page 8: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation8

Repeat customer growth driving adj EBIT improvement

NAKED WINES PLC FY20 vs FY19 (£m)

(3.0)

(2.0)

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

FY19EBIT

FY20EBIT

Change inFixed Costs

Increased New Customer

Investment

Growth inRepeat

Customers

(3.0)

3.6

2.3

(3.8)

(0.5)

(1.4)

Increasedcontributionper Repeat Customer

Page 9: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation9

Repeat contribution growth driven by strong retention and investment payback

4.0 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.81.5

6.3 5.1 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.5

2.7 9.77.3

5.8 4.7 4.1

3.9 10.88.0

6.2 5.2

5.012.1

8.76.9

4.011.2

8.2

5.112.8

7.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20FY13and older

FY14FY15

FY16

FY17FY18

FY19FY20

81% 109% 97% 79% 78% 67%

REPEAT CUSTOMER CONTRIBUTION BY ACQUISITION COHORT (£m)

% contribution retained in FY20

79%

84%

87%89%

95%

73%

1. Analysis excludes revenue recognition adjustments2. Restated for constant currency

7.8 8.9 11.1 15.4 14.6 19.1 22.9Investment in new customers

Year 1 payback

Page 10: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation10

… translating to attractive paybacks

CohortAge at reporting date

Payback

Paybackto date

5 year(Forecast)

20 year (Forecast)

FY16 49-60 months 3.1x (actual) 6.3x 3.1x

FY17 37-48 months 2.5x 5.2x 2.1x

FY18 25-36 months 2.5x 5.1x 1.6x

FY19 13-24 months 2.3x 4.4x 0.9x

FY20 0-12 months 2.6x 4.9x 0.3x

Page 11: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation11

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

24.0

3.0x

3.5x

4.0x

4.5x

5.0x

5.5x

Investment plans determined from payback

NEW CUSTOMER INVESTMENT AND PAYBACKDevelopment during FY20

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar20202019

4.9x

22.9

Payback measured at FY20 FYInvestment

Payback measured at FY20 H1 3.8x Goldilocks payback range

3.7x

4.2x

Slowed spending and optimised payback, plus existing cohorts improved

Increased investment at >4x payback, before seeing COVID impact

H1 payback was trending around 3.8x so we slowed investment growth

1 2 3

£m

Page 12: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation12

Fixed costs below guidance

• FY20 growth at bottom end of guided range

– Phasing of new hires– Reduced variable

compensation

• Will unwind into FY21

FY21

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY18 FY19 FY20

FIXED COSTS (£m)

Fixed costs Fixed costs growth Sales growth

Page 13: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation13

60% growth in Standstill EBIT, 17% exc. COVID

Note: Investment KPIs are calculated from management information before revenue recognition adjustments. Due to high numbers of orders placed and not delivered as of March 30th we see stronger KPIs than are reflected in reported financial performance

STANDSTILL EBIT (£m) • Standstill (SS) EBIT = EBIT excluding investment that drives growth

• We have normalised for estimated COVID impact

– Significant impact on this metric as impacts all components of calculation

• Growth driven by– More repeat contribution; less– Increase in replenishment spend;

less– Fixed cost increase

FY20 SS EBIT

FY20 SS EBIT

(normalised)

COVIDimpact

Fixedcosts

Replencosts

Repeatcontribution

(3.6)5.1

(0.5)

7.3

2.8

FY19 SS EBIT 1

6.3

10.1

Page 14: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation14

Continuing business cash consumption is modest

For the year ended (£m) FY18 FY19 FY20Total

FY18-20Repeat contribution 33.8 39.8 45.7 120.0

New customer investment (14.0) (19.1) (22.9) (56.5)

Fixed costs (18.3) (23.7) (24.2) (66.4)

Adjusted EBIT 1.5 (3.0) (1.4) (2.9)Addback depreciation 0.4 0.6 1.8 2.8Adjusted EBITDA 1.9 (2.4) 0.4 (0.1)Less Capex (0.9) (0.9) (1.1) (2.9)Change in working capital 3.1 (6.3) (1.7) (4.9)Free Cash Flow 4.1 (9.6) (2.4) (8.0)

Year on year growth in working capital 3.1 (6.3) (1.7) (4.9)

Year on year growth in New Customer Investment (0.8) 5.0 3.4 7.6Ratio 388% 126% 50% 64%

Page 15: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation15

Current trading (to end P2) showing continued acceleration

Note: Growth rates are in comparison to end P2 YoY. We are providing a one-off update on current trading as a result of the COVID pandemic having a material impact in the group. It is not policy to typically release this.

Total Sales

Newcustomer

sales

Investmentin new

customers

Repeatcustomer

sales

+81% +256% +115% +50%

Page 16: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation16

Cost guidance

1. Not providing full FY21 guidance due to COVID-19

2. £3m R&D fund– Supports marketing channel expansion– Reported centrally, excluded from payback calculations– Any “production” spend reported in new customer contribution

3. £28m - £30m fixed costs (exc. R&D)– £4m - £6m uplift year on year– Will unwind underspend from FY20– Investment in marketing development, digital marketing, data science, commercial finance– If momentum is sustained, we may add further fixed costs to manage the high growth levels

Page 17: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Winemaker: Eddy Naim, Lebanon

NickDevlin

Group CEO

Page 18: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation18

UPDATECOVID-19

OPPORTUNITY

THE GROWTH

AREAS OFSTRATEGIC FOCUS

Page 19: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation19

COVID-19 update

• Focus on staff, customers & winemakers

• Giving back to communities

• Supporting the industry

• Driving increased sales early in Q1

• Robust infrastructure scaled efficiently

• Stock to support growth

• New members performing as forecasted

• Angel retention rates strong

• Retained 5* customer service and 90% ‘Buy It Again’ rating

• COVID-19 accelerated trends to online

• Favorable marketing conditions

• Strong balance sheet

UPDATECOVID-19

People first Driving scale Early signs positive Medium term upside

Page 20: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation20

Looking after our people and communities

• Safeguarding our employees and supply chain:– Social distancing in warehouses– Teams and customer service working from home– Achieved with minimal impact to customer experience

• Giving back & supporting our communities:– UK: 23,000 meals for NHS and 400 cases/week donated to

key workers– US: 1,000 meals for key workers– Producing hand sanitizer in all markets

• Launched a $5m COVID support fund for winemakers & suppliers:– $5m fully subscribed– Over 44 winemakers supported

UPDATECOVID-19

Page 21: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation21

Our subscription model allows us to translate heightened trading through COVID-19 into sustained higher growth

Early signs from new cohorts encouraging

• Too early to be definitive but ‘no red flags’ on cohort quality

• Early indicators show:– No elevated cancel rates– Higher rates of repurchase in early months– Higher early contribution per joining Angel

• Remain prudent in outlook as we have no data yet in “normal” conditions

UPDATECOVID-19

Page 22: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation22

Well positioned for the long term

Naked well positioned with strong balance sheet to take advantage of investment opportunities through disruption

• At home drinking likely to continue taking share from out of home through 2020

• Greater awareness and openness to online channel

• Wine category volume demand resilient to recession

• COVID-19 restrictions will limit On-Premise venues through at least summer 2020

• Some weaker competitor models (low online exposure) may not survive

• Lower CPCs / CPMs as weakened players pull back marketing spend

• Increased efficiency driven by higher salience of online wine as category

• Strategic partnerships environment favorable

UPDATECOVID-19

Demand Supply Marketing

Page 23: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation23

AREAS OFSTRATEGIC FOCUSOPPORTUNITY

THE GROWTHUPDATE

COVID-19

Page 24: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation24

Naked serves a TAM of $20bn in the US

Large addressable market Naked in the fastest growing sector1

US Market

1. 2020 Direct to Consumer Wine Shipping report. See https://www.sovos.com/shipcompliant/resources/wine-dtc-report/2. Combination of D2C & online based on analysis commissioned by the company

Total US Off-premise wine

Naked Addressable

Current Delivered2 $5bn

$20bn

$40bn

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

OPPORTUNITYTHE GROWTH

US WINE MARKET CHANNEL SHARE US Direct to Consumer (‘DTC’) Market value ($bn)

c40%of Naked’s new US customersare new to DTC wine buying

Page 25: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation25

COVID is accelerating shift towards online

Increased pace of channel migration will accelerate Naked growth• US wine market has lagged other US retail

categories and UK in pace of online migration

• Unfamiliarity with online was a key barrier

• Q1 saw a 20-year channel shift occur in 1 month

• New pool of buyers who are open to trialling online

• Naked in best position to acquire them in coming years

20 years of channel shift in 1 month

US WINE MARKET CHANNEL SHARE

(1) Pre crisis share based on Nielsen tracked channels for 52 weeks ending 3/28/2020 (2) Channel growth rate data based off Nielsen tracked off premise channels

Online Offline

OPPORTUNITYTHE GROWTH

5% 10% 14% 16% 16% 20%

95% 90% 86% 84% 84% 80%

Pre Crisis w/e Mar 21w/e Mar 28 w/e Apr 4 w/e Apr 11 w/e Apr 18

Page 26: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation26

We have an advantaged model vs competitors OPPORTUNITYTHE GROWTH

Advantageddirect model

• Access to >90% of US wine drinking population

• Measurably better value for money & quality

• Through exclusive brands• Generating attractive

margins

Positioned to be online winner

• No physical legacy

• Rich customer experience underpinned by broad range and data led proposition

• Operating at scale driving efficiency & superior customer experience

• Allows advantaged acquisition economics & higher allowable CAC

Substantial barriersto entry

• Category leading US distribution network operating at scale

• Global network of >200 leading winemakers

• >600 exclusive SKUs across >100 brands in US alone

• Data led range & customer proposition based off >20m customer reviews

Page 27: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation27

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3

Which translates into better products . . .

• Naked’s model gives consumers better value wine

• As prices increase, so does the Naked saving due to no excessive marketing costs

Naked provides better value by offering a lower price at each quality level The price differential widens at

higher price points

Average price

NAKED PRICING VS VIVINO MARKET AVERAGE (red wine)

Naked Angels pay

Average price on Vivino

OPPORTUNITYTHE GROWTH

Vivino Wine Rating

Note: Pricing data for the USA specifically and is vs Naked USA

Page 28: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation28

. . . and market share

• Naked is #1 DTC Wine company in USA

• Gaining share 2019 to 2020...with further share gain during COVID-19

• Naked shipped 1 in 6 bottles shipped DTC in March 2020

• Naked accounted for 30% of total DTC volume growth between March ‘19 and March ‘20

12.9%14.5%

17.0%

NAKED’S US VOLUME SHARE OF DTC WINE MARKET

Feb 20 Mar 20Mar 19

2.8% 3.4% Value share3.7%

OPPORTUNITYTHE GROWTH

Page 29: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation29

UPDATECOVID-19 AREAS OF

STRATEGIC FOCUSOPPORTUNITY

THE GROWTH

Page 30: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation30

There are 3 pillars to our growth plan

Improve proposition to increase LTV

Harness scale efficiency to drive LTV

Unlock new investment channels

IMPROVEECONOMICS

NEWCHANNELS

Improved economics help unlock

new channels

1

2

3

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Page 31: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation31

Enhancing the core proposition in 2020

More efficient for 1st time shoppers

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Optimising new customer proposition

Testing:• Initial wine curation• Proposition clarity

• First purchase economics

• Onboarding comms

An effortless place to get your favorite wines

Enhancedsubscriptions

Optimizing:• Customer experience• Onboarding mechanics

• Core recommendations

Leveraging scale toimprove customer experience

Improved shipping anddelivery experience

2020 projects include:• Increasing customer choice• Transition to 7-day week

• Expand US network capacity

Page 32: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation32

Early testing of ‘Never Miss Out’ & 7-day fulfillment

Value in increasing speed to customer of first order

Never Miss Out

High customer appetite reflected in signup rate

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

15% average uptake rate

100k activesubscribers globally

Naked USA has a category leading fulfilment capability

Moving to 7-day a week picking model will smooth actual time from point of order to customer delivery

Increasing scale delivers enhanced service while cost neutral whilst building more capacity and flexibility into the network

Page 33: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation33

Delivering our goal to recruit world’s best winemakersSTRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Winemaker:Tom Rinaldi, USA

Winemaker:Josh Pfeiffer, Australia

Winemaker:Jesse Katz, USA

Winemaker:Jennifer Buck, France

Page 34: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation34

There are 3 pillars to our growth plan

Improve proposition to increase LTV

Harness scale efficiency to drive LTV

Unlock new investment channels

IMPROVEECONOMICS

NEWCHANNELS

Improved economics help unlock

new channels

1

2

3

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Page 35: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation35

Naked ops configured for scale efficiencySTRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

• Warehouse / 3PL contracts

• Final mile rates

• Packaging costs

• Fixed site rent leverage

• Improved labor utilization

• Automation potential

• Faster stock turn

• Lower warehouse storage costs as % of sales

• Critical mass for efficient teams

• Automation / tech

• Self service

Negotiated leverage Warehouse efficiency Storage efficiency Customer service

Page 36: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation36

L2M has provided a snapshot of ‘Naked at scale’ in the USA

• Rapid growth in demand has offered a snapshot of potential for scale to transform US economics

• Potential to leverage existing infrastructure in the US to service substantially larger business

FY20 COVID(April /May 20)

2.6%

FY20 COVID(April /May 20)

18%

USA FIXED COST / SALES (%) USA FULFILMENT COSTS / ORDER ($)

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Page 37: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation37

• Variable savings drive payback via lower CAC and increased LTV

• Savings levels seen during COVID unlocks 1x payback upside

• Opportunity to re-invest upside in higher allowable CAC unlocking additional productive growth investment

Naked USA: PAYBACK IMPACT OF VARIABLE COST / ORDER SAVINGS

0.9x

1.3x

Range of improvement seen during COVID period to date

Savings unlock payback and growth upsideSTRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Lifetime payback impact5 year payback impact

0.3x

0.6x

0.9x

1.3x

0.2x

0.3x

0.5x

0.7x

5% 10% 15% 20%

Page 38: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation38

There are 3 pillars to our growth plan

Improve proposition to increase LTV

Harness scale efficiency to drive LTV

Unlock new investment channels

IMPROVEECONOMICS

NEWCHANNELS

Improved economics help unlock

new channels

1

2

3

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Page 39: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation39

NW USA

Substantial headroom for increased investment

• We are currently subscale in customer acquisition vs US peers

• Massive headroom in US but also scope for growth in UK / Australia

• When capital constrained, we deployed investment through a narrow set of channels

• Now have opportunity to broaden channel mix

1. Naked Wines USA FY20 Investment, HelloFresh and StitchFix investment levels from latest full year annual reports. US investment only. EUR:USD converted at an average rate of 1.12.

StitchFix HelloFresh

$308m

$152m

SELECTED USA DTC LEADERS MARKETING INVESTMENT 1

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Page 40: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation40

And multiple direct response channels to add

Partner Insert Marketing

Facebook, Google

Strategic Partnerships

Paid Influencer

Affiliate

Direct Mail

DR TV

Native, Display, Podcast, Outdoor, Print Media, YouTube, Lead Gen

Valu

e / s

ize

of th

e ch

anne

l

Naked Peers

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Page 41: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation41

Partner 1

Partner 2

Partner 3

Partner 4

Partner 5

Partner 6

Total (All newcustomer)

Proprietary customer LTV modelling is a key capability

We have . . .• Refined our investment approach

• Improved early warning systems

• Developed effective data analytics

Enabling us to . . .• Triple investment in 5 years

• Maintain payback at target levels

• Able to ‘put foot on gas’ much more confidently vs 2016

And flags low quality customers early

Rapidly identifies high quality audiences allowing us to bid more

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Total(all new customer)

Naked Customer Valuation Performance

Actuals FC @ 45 days

Overall 45 day forecast accurate to within 0.5%

Page 42: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation42

With so many opportunities and the uncertain environment we are clear the business does not have excess capital;

we intend to retain capital and focus on growth

Significant investment potential

• Cash reserves are a strategic advantage

• Significant headroom and opportunity to accelerate growth

• Maintain prudent capital position in the face of uncertainty

STRATEGIC FOCUSAREAS OF

Capital allocation policy unchanged

1. Maintain a healthy balance sheet

2. Invest in growth in a disciplined way3. Return funds in excess of those needed

to fund growth and manage risk

Page 43: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation43

In Summary

• Differentiated proposition delivering superior value to customers

• Clear and proven investment strategy

• Large US market opportunity

• COVID-19 has amplified favorable trends supporting our business

• Strong balance sheet to pursue opportunities for faster growth

Naked ideally placed to accelerate growth to scale

Winemaker: Matt Parish, USA

Page 44: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Winemaker: Johan Kruger, South Africa

Q&A

Page 45: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Winemaker: Charles & Ruth Simpson, France

Appendices

Page 46: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation46

Presentational updates

1. Including 5-year paybacks as well as 20-year paybacks

2. Adjusted EBIT definition will INCLUDE Share based payment charges in future (c. £1m p.a. cost)

3. Focusing on reported growth measures - Underlying movements to be commented only if material

Page 47: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation47

Income Statement

£m FY20 FY19 YoY %New customersRevenue 29.2 25.5 14.6%

Contribution (22.9) (19.1) 20.0%

Repeat customersRevenue 173.7 152.9 13.6%

Contribution 45.7 39.8 14.7%

Fixed costs (24.2) (23.7) 2.3%

Adjusted EBIT (1.4) (3.0) (51.6%)

Finance charges (0.5) (0.8) (36.7%)

Adjusted loss before tax (1.9) (3.7) (48.5%)

Page 48: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation48

Summary balance sheet and Free Cash Flow drivers

For the year ended (£m) FY18 FY19 FY20Non-current assets 45.7 41.9 59.7

- Intangibles 42.7 39.1 36.0- Others 3.0 2.8 23.5

Non-Current Liabilities (14.8) (22.6) (5.8)

Working capitalInventory 41.7 56.1 69.9 Other current assets 6.5 6.2 5.4 Customer funds (31.0) (37.8) (43.6)Payables and accruals (18.7) (20.7) (27.2)Other current liabilitiesNet working capital (1.5) 3.7 4.5

Year on year growth in working capital 3.1 (6.3) (1.7) Year on year growth in New Customer Investment (0.8) 5.0 3.4 Ratio 388% 126% 50%

Adjusted EBIT 1.5 (3.0) (1.4)Addback: Depreciation 0.4 0.6 1.8Less: Capex (0.9) (0.9) (1.1)Changes in working capital 3.1 (6.3) (1.7)Free Cash Flow 4.1 (9.6) (2.4)

Page 49: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation49

Revenue by geography

Underlying£m FY20 FY19 YoY %

UK 80.0 71.8 11.4%

US 90.9 75.7 20.2%

Australia 32.0 31.0 3.4%

Total revenue 202.9 178.4 13.7%

Revenue by customer group:

New customers 29.2 25.5 14.6%

Repeat customers 173.7 152.9 13.6%

Page 50: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation50

Standstill EBIT

£m FY18 FY19 FY20

Repeat contribution 33.8 39.8 45.7

Sales Retention 83.2% 80.7% 83.3%

Repeat contribution lost to attrition 5.7 7.7 7.6

Year 1 payback (from PY cohort) 81.2% 78.0% 67.0%

Spend to replenish lost repeat contribution 7.0 9.8 11.4

SS EBIT is calculated as

Repeat contribution 33.8 39.8 45.7

Less: replenishment spend (7.0) (9.8) (11.4)

Less fixed cost (18.3) (23.7) (24.2)

8.5 6.3 10.1

Page 51: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation51

Payback

HISTORIC PAYBACK STABILITY

CohortInitial

payback forecastLatest

forecast Change

FY17 4.5x 5.2x +0.7x

FY18 4.6x 5.1x +0.5x

FY19 4.0x 4.4x +0.4x

Page 52: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation52

IFRS16 impact

Continuing operations

Depreciation

£’000

Loss ondisposal of lease

£’000

Financecharges

£’000

Net lease payments

£’000

Total

£’000

Cost of sales 234 - - (246) (12)

Distribution costs 306 8 - (332) (18)

Administrative expenses 623 - - (685) (62)

Operating loss/(profit) 1,163 8 - (1,263) (92)

Net interest payable - - 156 - 156

Loss/(profit) before tax 1,163 8 156 (1,263) 64

Page 53: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation53

Glossary of terms

Alternative performance measuresAdjusted EBIT Operating profit adjusted for amortisation of acquired intangibles, acquisition costs, share based payment charges, impairment

of goodwill, restructuring costs and fair value movement through the income statement on financial instruments and revaluation of funding cash balances held.

EBITDA EBIT plus depreciation and amortisation

Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBIT plus depreciation and amortisation, but excluding any depreciation or amortisation costs included in our adjusted items e.g. amortisation of acquired intangibles.

Adjusted PBT Adjusted EBIT less net finance charges

Adjusted effective tax rate Defined as the current year’s current tax charge divided by the adjusted profit before tax.

Free cash flow Cash generated by operating activities less capital expenditure and before adjusted items and taxation.A reconciliation of this metric is provided below.

Net Debt Borrowings less cash and debt issuance cost.

Operating Costs Defined as administrative expenses less other operating income excluding adjusted items

Page 54: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation54

Glossary of terms (continued)

Investment measuresInvestment in new customers(also referred to as new customercontribution)

The contribution earned from sales to new customers.

Lifetime Payback The ratio of the Lifetime value (see below) of the customers recruited this year to the investment we made recruiting them. As this is an undiscounted forward-looking estimate it cannot be reconciled back to reported financial results. As we can refine this expectation over time, we also update the expected returns from prior yearinvestment.

Lifetime value The future contribution we expect to earn from customers recruited in a discrete period of time. We calculate this future contribution using a Machine Learning (ML) model. Collecting data for a number of key customer characteristics including retention, order frequency and order value along with customer demographics and non-transactional data, the ML algorithms then predict the future(lifetime) value of that customer.

Repeat customer contribution The profit attributable to those sales after fulfilment and service costs.

Repeat customersales retention

The proportion of sales made to customers who met our definition of “Repeat” last year that were realised again this year from the same customers. Using our website data, the population who weresubscribers in the prior year are identified and their sales in the current year then assessed. This is done for each month and summed to calculate the full year retention.

Fixed costs Administrative costs by division excluding marketing spend.

Year one payback This short-term payback measure shows the actual return in this financial year of our investment in the prior year, removing the need to use a model to forecast the future.

Page 55: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation55

Glossary of terms (continued)

DefinitionsAngel A customer who deposits funds into their Angel account each month to spend on the wines on our website.

CAGR Compound annual growth rate. The year on year growth rate required for a number of years for a value to grow from its beginningbalance to its ending balance.

Company, Naked or Naked Wines

Naked Wines plc

Contribution A profit measure between gross profit and EBIT, calculated as gross profit less the costs of fulfilling and servicing (e.g. credit card fees, delivery costs, customer facing staff costs) and marketing expenses. We often split contribution into that from new andrepeat customers as they can have different levels of profitability.

DTC Direct to consumer

ESO Employee stock option

Group Naked Wines plc and its subsidiary undertakings

LTIP Long Term Incentive Plan

New customer A customer who, at the time of purchase, does not meet our definition of a repeat customer; for example, because they are brandnew, were previously a repeat customer and have stopped subscribing with us at some point or cannot be identified.

New customer sales Revenues derived from transactions with customers who meet our definition of a new customer.

Repeat customer A customer (‘Angel’) who has subscribed and made their first monthly subscription payment.

SIP Share Incentive Plan

Page 56: Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated · Presentation 24 June 2020 Delivering growth, opportunity accelerated. 2 Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation Disclaimer

Naked Wines plc 2020 Full Year Results Presentation56

Glossary of terms (continued)

Operational KPIsProduct availability % of targeted range available on websites as indicated by our inventory reporting.

Wine quality – “Buy it again ratings”

% of “Yes” scores in the last 12 months as recorded by websites/ apps

Service ratings – “5* customer service”

The number of service ratings scoring 5* as a % of total ratings in the last 12 months as recorded by websites/apps/telephonefeedback.