delivering consistent returns with growth...key performance highlights – q3 2015 investor...

UBL Performance Overview - Sep 2015

Delivering Consistent Returns with Growth Key Performance Highlights – Q3 2015 Investor Relations Conference Call October 29th 2015 Speakers: Mr Asif Saeed Sindhu – Chief Financial Officer Mr Arif Saifie, CFA – Financial Controller and Head of Investor Relations

Investor Relations Release


Table of Contents

Key Highlights

Execution and Delivery in 2015

Key Performance Ratios

Quarterly Trend Analysis

3

7

21

26

PAGE

UBL Performance Overview - Sep 2015 3

Key Highlights

Standalone PBT up 34% to Rs. 32.3Bn, PAT up 22% YoY to Rs. 19.3Bn

Consolidated PAT up 19% YoY to Rs. 20.4Bn

EPS up 22%, Break up value per share is Rs. 115.3/-


We have continued to deliver strong revenue growth

Fees and Commissions have grown to Rs. 9.2Bn, a 6% YoY increase over Sep’14. Home remittances, Omni and trade major contributors, investment banking fees picking up

Dividend income of Rs. 2.4Bn in 9M’15 vs Rs. 1.4Bn in the corresponding period (Rs. 0.4Bn in Q3’15)

Capital gains of Rs. 2.9Bn for 9M’15 with Rs. 0.7Bn realized in Q3’15. Strong trading performance in bonds

FX income down by 24% to Rs. 1.8Bn, a more stable exchange rate and restricts arbitrage opportunities

Overall margins expand by 20bps to 5.7% despite 254bps decline in average KIBOR

Overall COD reduced by 73bps to 3.2% in 9M’15

Average loan growth of 9% with yield on advances having reduced by 92bps to 8.4% in 9M’15

Volume growth of 36% in average earning investments with strong build up in PIBs

Net Interest Income has increased by 28% to reach Rs. 41.1Bn

Non markup Income at Rs. 17.1 Bn up by 18%


Provisions up by Rs. 1.8Bn YoY to Rs. 2.8Bn in 9M’15

Administrative expenses are up 6% to Rs. 22.3Bn

Cost to income ratio has improved to 38.3% in 9M’15 (9M’14: 45.0%)

Head count levels well managed with staff costs increase restricted to 6%

Premises related expenses up 4% mainly due to rent and rising cost of utilities

Cash recoveries of Rs. 2.7Bn within domestic and Rs. 0.6Bn within International

Overall NPLs decreased by 1% over Dec’14 to Rs. 53.6Bn

Asset quality has improved to 10.6% in Sep‘15 (11.2% as at Dec’14)

Coverage ratio increased to 82.6% in Sep’15 from 81.2% at Dec’14

Improved asset quality with cost discipline


Healthy balance sheet growth

Retail Bank channeling the balance sheet expansion

13% growth in the total deposits within the domestic bank, ahead of market growth of 8.1% in 9M’15

Current Accounts remains core focus for retail distribution – with 15% YoY average growth

Domestic cost of deposits at 3.6% in 9M’15 vs 4.4% in 9M’14

Net Advances increased by Rs. 25B to Rs. 459Bn as at Sep 30, 2015

CBG portfolio up by 10% to Rs. 283Bn as at Sep’15

Commercial bank down by 9% to Rs. 22Bn, slight pick up in consumer assets

International loans down by 3% (ex-Yemen up by 1%), repayments in the UAE, Qatar up 19%, Bahrain up 12%, Yemen 41% decline in portfolio


Execution and Delivery

Consistent earnings performance in 2015

7

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Dec'08 Dec'09 Dec'10 Dec'11 Dec'12 Dec'13 Dec'14 Sep'15

EPS 8.3 8.3 9.1 12.7 14.7 15.2 17.9 21.0

PE 4.5 7.1 7.5 4.1 5.7 8.7 9.9 7.0

0.7

5.6

10.4

15.3

20.1

25.0

2.0

5.6

9.2

12.8

16.4

20.0

25.00

27.00

29.00

31.00

33.00

35.00

37.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

190.00

200.00

210.00

Dec

-13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

UBL's share price KSE 100 Index

44

61 68

79

92 101

126 133 135

141

43

55 56

65

75 82

103 109 110

115

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

10

25

40

55

70

85

100

115

130

145

160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar'15 Jun'15 Sep'15

Total Equity - St. BV Per share - St.

8

Max 2015 :186.00 Sep’30 :146.72 Oct’28 :163.00

Trends – KSE 100 Index and UBL’s share price

Cash and Stock Payout EPS & PE

Cons. Equity Sep’15 – Rs. 154 Bn Cons. BV Sep’15 -Rs. 125.6 per share

25% 25%

50%

75%85%

100%115%

90%

42.5% 42.4%

54.8%59.2% 58.2%

65.8% 64.2%

57.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9M'15

Cash Stock Dividend Payout Ratio

We maintain consistent pay outs as earnings continue to grow

Growth in Book Value Per Share by 12% in 9M’15


Income Statement - Standalone

9

9M'15 9M'14 Var% Q3'15 Q2'15 Var %

Interest Earned 70.14 60.39 +16% 23.72 23.51 +1%

Interest Expensed (29.00) (28.26) -3% (9.87) (9.33) -6%

Net Interest Income 41.14 32.14 +28% 13.85 14.18 -2%

Non Interest Income 17.14 14.53 +18% 4.75 6.16 -23%

Total Revenue 58.28 46.67 +25% 18.61 20.34 -9%

Admin. Expenses (22.32) (21.02) -6% (7.38) (7.61) +3%

Operating Expenses (23.18) (21.53) -8% (7.73) (7.84) +1%

Pre Prov. Operating Profit 35.10 25.13 +40% 10.88 12.50 -13%

Provision Exp./Other writeoffs (2.81) (0.99) -184% (0.73) (1.29) +44%

Profit Before Tax 32.29 24.14 +34% 10.15 11.22 -9%

Profit After Tax 19.27 15.85 +22% 6.55 5.60 +17%

Rs in bln Rs in bln


Income Statement - Consolidated

9M'15 9M'14 Var% Q3'15 Q2'15 Var %

Interest Earned 72.50 62.64 +16% 24.57 24.29 +1%

Interest Expensed (29.89) (29.07) -3% (10.20) (9.62) -6%

Net Interest Income 42.61 33.57 +27% 14.37 14.66 -2%

Non Interest Income 19.18 16.89 +14% 5.37 6.71 -20%

Total Revenue 61.79 50.46 +22% 19.74 21.37 -8%

Admin. Expenses (24.54) (23.08) -6% (8.14) (8.37) +3%

Operating Expenses (25.41) (23.59) -8% (8.49) (8.60) +1%

Pre Prov. Operating Profit 36.38 26.87 +35% 11.24 12.77 -12%

Provision Exp./Other writeoffs (2.75) (1.33) -107% (0.59) (1.33) +56%

Profit Before Tax 33.63 25.54 +32% 10.66 11.45 -7%

Profit After Tax 20.44 17.18 +19% 7.02 5.71 +23%

Rs in bln Rs in bln


Major segments growing

the Balance Sheet

11


Cost of Deposits

Deposits - Bank

3.2%

1.9%

2.9%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15

Domestic International Bank

Deposits build up gaining momentum… with low cost of deposits

PE COF % PE COF %

Domestic depos its 697 4.4% 785 3.6%

International depos its 198 2.4% 209 1.9%

Tota l Bank 895 3.9% 994 3.2%

International $ Mn 1,967 2.4% 1,995 1.9%

Domestic CASA 85.8% 85.6%

Bank Rs BnSep'15Dec'14


208

50

22 9

134

13

227

56

20 9

136

12 -

37

74

111

148

185

222

Corporate Bank Commodity Commercial Bank Consumer Bank International Others

Rs

Bn

Dec'14 Sep'15

Corporate Bank maintaining focus on asset quality – some build up in 2015

Dec'14 Sep'15

Sep'15 vs

Dec'15

Corporate Bank 208 227 9%

Commodity 50 56 12%

Commercial 22 20 -8%

Consumer 9 9 5%

Others 13 12 -3%

Total Domestic 300 324 8%

International 134 136 1%

Bank 434 459 6%

International US$ Mn 1,332 1,297 -3%

Rs. In bln

Net Advances - Bank


Baitna91%

Personal Loan2%

Others7%

Corporate67%

Consumer7%

Others26%

International Advances – Corporate loan book remains largest component

14

By Geography By Business - UAE

UAE70%

Bahrain10%

EPZ1%

New York1%

Qatar14%

Yemen4%

Abu Dhabi19%

Dubai78%

Sharjah3%


Energy Sector21%

Agribusiness12%

Individuals5%

Food industries3%

Textile10%

Wholesale traders6%

Construction4%

Financial6%

Telecom2%

Pharmaceuticals1%

Contractors2%

Airline2%

Others 26%

15

Concentration of Advances – Consolidated (Sep ’15)


Review of Non Funded Income

& Admin Expenses

16


Non Funded Income diversifying earnings well – strong trading performance in 2015

9M'15 9M'14 Var % Q3'15 Q2'15 Var %

Fee, commission and brokerage income 9,170 8,611 6% 2,875 3,416 -16%

Dividend income 2,411 1,395 73% 387 1,529 -75%

Income from dealing in foreign

currencies1,756 2,298 -24% 523 528 -1%

Gain / (loss) on sale of securities 2,971 1,446 105% 738 382 93%

Derivatives Income 249 370 -33% 117 92 27%

Other income 586 410 43% 115 215 -46%

Total Non Fund Income 17,144 14,530 18% 4,755 6,163 -23%

Rs in mln Rs in mln

Stand Alone results


Fees and Commissions performance in 2015

9M'15 9M'14 Var % Q3'15 Q2'15 Var %

Commission on trade 1,277 1,275 0% 452 426 6%

Commission on consumer loan 579 536 8% 239 167 43%

Commission on remittance / uniremote 1,588 1,505 6% 560 538 4%

Corporate service chgs/finance fee/FI inc. 1,164 863 35% 356 537 -34%

General banking service charges 1,456 1,362 7% 408 601 -32%

Commission on cash management 355 365 -3% 120 133 -9%

Commission on home remittance 1,222 1,282 -5% 233 510 -54%

Commission income - Bancassurance 478 453 6% 160 143 12%

Commission others 1,052 972 8% 347 362 -4%

Total 9,170 8,611 6% 2,875 3,416 -16%

Rs. in mlnRs. in mln

Stand Alone results


Administrative Expenses – well controlled across manpower and premises costs

9M'15 9M'14 Var % Q3'15 Q2'15 Var %

Personnel Cost 8,885 8,403 -6% 2,956 2,973 1%

Premises Cost 2,996 2,888 -4% 1,048 1,017 -3%

Outsourced service charges

including sales commission3,226 2,699 -20% 1,097 1,149 5%

Advertisement and publicity 350 524 33% 106 99 -8%

Communications 870 818 -6% 279 293 5%

Depreciation / Amortization 1,596 1,508 -6% 538 536 0%

Legal and professional charges 210 146 -44% 66 79 17%

Banking service charges 720 694 -4% 224 248 10%

Stationery and printing 444 424 -5% 140 171 18%

Travelling 193 185 -4% 56 73 23%

Cash transportation charges 428 382 -12% 147 146 0%

Repairs and maintenance 1,155 1,031 -12% 382 362 -5%

Vehicle expenses 133 162 18% 43 45 5%

Office running expenses 456 403 -13% 161 155 -4%

Insurance expense 50 58 14% 29 12 -143%

Others 609 449 -36% 111 252 56%

Total 22,318 20,776 -7% 7,383 7,611 3%

Rs. In mln Rs. In mln Stand Alone results


■ Leader in providing basic banking services to the unbanked and in increasing financial inclusion in Pakistan.

■ Successfully initiated implementation of a ‘franchisee’ based agent network distribution model

■ Omni’s proprietary platform remains a key competitive advantage. Omni has also been implemented in the UK for remittances to Pakistan.

■ Leader in the Government-to-Person (G2P) payments arena, working closely with the Government of Pakistan and multilateral agencies.

UBL OMNI – The success story continues…

GSMA International Mobile Award - 2012

Financial Insights Innovation Award - 2012

Ranked as one of the 14 “Sprinters” - GSMA’s Mobile Money for the Unbanked (MMU) program

Top 50 worldwide marketing leaders that focus on attaining the UN’s 8 Millennium Development Goals - World Marketing Summit Malaysia 2013

Achieved Payment Application – Data Security Standards (PA DSS) Certification in 2013, the global security standard for the payment card industry

Recognition and Awards

Commercial launch April 2010

No. of accounts 1.90 mln

No. of agents 30,650 +

No. of cities and towns 1,700+

No. of transactions 202.7 mln

Transaction volume Rs 928.2 bln

Grant received US $6.9 mln from Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

UBL OMNI

Major Initiatives

Benazir Income Support Program

Cash subsidy for the poor

Beneficiaries: 1.3mn

Funds disbursed: PKR66.8bn

Watan / Pakistan Cards

G2P aid for the flood affectees

Cards issued: 1.4 mln

Funds disbursed: Rs 59 bln

Cash Management Services

Microfinance, FMCG clients, schools, collections

No. of collections: 6.75 mln

Transaction volume: Rs 27.5 bln

World Food Program and World Health Organization

Cash in lieu of food, payments to polio workers

Beneficiaries: 145,000 +

Funds disbursed: Rs 2.4bln


Key Performance Ratios

“

21


Balance Sheet Ratios Sep-15 Dec-14

Advances / Deposits 48.9% 51.3%

Asset Quality 10.6% 11.2%

Coverage 82.6% 81.2%

Financial Ratios 9M'15 9M'14 Q3'15 Q2'15

Yield on P. Advances 8.4% 9.3% 7.3% 8.4%

Cost of Deposits - Bank 3.2% 4.0% 2.9% 3.1%

Cost of Deposits - Domestic 3.6% 4.4% 3.2% 3.4%

Net Interest Margin 5.7% 5.5% 5.2% 5.9%

NCL Ratio 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 1.3%

ROA 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%

ROE 26.5% 23.4% 25.7% 22.8%

P/L Ratios 9M'15 9M'14 Q3'15 Q2'15

Cost to Income Ratio 38.3% 45.0% 39.7% 37.4%

Non Fund Inc. / Total Revenue 29.4% 31.1% 25.6% 30.3%

Strong Return on Equity, improved efficiency and asset quality


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

Spread (Standalone) 15.5% 5.6% 4.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.2%

Net Interest Margin (Standalone) 27.0% 7.2% 6.4% 5.4% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.2%

Non Interest Yield 31.6% 1.7% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5%

Admin Exp./Avg Assets 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3%

Cost Income Ratio 41.7% 40.1% 43.2% 47.5% 45.6% 38.8% 39.2% 41.3%

Loan Loss / Avg Assets 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Loan Loss / Avg RWA 4 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Effective Tax Rate 37.7% 37.0% 32.0% 31.9% 32.5% 33.2% 50.1% 34.1%

ROA 1.6% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% 2.0%

ROE 17.7% 20.7% 23.4% 21.3% 23.4% 28.5% 20.6% 24.6%

QTD (Annualized)DuPont

Full YearFull Year

Financial Ratios – Consolidated (1 of 3)

Formulas

1. Net interest income / average assets 4. Risk weighted assets

2. Net interest income / average earning assets

3. Non interest income / average assets


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

Gross NPLs / Gross Loan 12.9% 13.4% 13.6% 11.9% 11.1% 11.4% 10.9% 10.1%

Net NPLs / Gross Loan 3.6% 2.9% 3.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8%

Coverage Ratio 69.0% 78.1% 74.6% 81.1% 78.5% 79.5% 79.8% 82.4%

Prov. held / Gross loan 8.9% 10.5% 10.1% 9.6% 8.7% 9.0% 8.7% 8.3%

Net Credit Loss ratio 2.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

Growth in Loan Book -5.7% -0.1% 13.1% 7.6% 12.5% -3.5% 2.7% 6.9%

Growth in Deposits 12.7% 11.8% 18.6% 18.2% 7.0% 5.6% 5.3% -0.1%

Operating Revenue -1.4% 16.3% 11.8% 1.7% 15.7% 29.2% 20.8% 17.7%

Operating Expense 7.6% 11.3% 19.6% 12.1% 10.6% 10.5% 6.6% 6.3%

Pre-provision Oper.Profit -7.2% 20.1% 6.3% -6.6% 20.5% 45.8% 32.8% 28.2%

Provision exp.+ Other prov. -39.2% -9.1% -36.6% -59.5% -16.0% 158.1% 23.1% 925.7%

Profit After Tax 16.1% 35.1% 29.3% 2.5% 21.8% 39.5% -1.5% 20.0%

QTD (Annualized)

QTD (Annualized)Asset Quality

Growth

Full Year

Full Year



St - Standalone

1. Permanent Staff

2. Earning assets incl bal .with other banks, lending to F.I., investments & perf adv

3. Funds includes deposits , borrowings & sub-ordinated loans

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

Capital Adequacy Ratio 15.0% 14.9% 14.8% 13.3% 14.3% 14.6% 14.8% 15.1%

Loan / Deposits 62.8% 57.5% 55.0% 50.0% 51.8% 47.6% 46.5% 49.4%

Net Loans / Assets 47.1% 42.2% 40.1% 38.3% 39.5% 35.5% 33.7% 34.7%

RWA / Assets 72.7% 72.8% 70.3% 71.3% 70.7% 67.2% 63.7% 63.2%

Average Headcount (St) 1 8,474 8,655 8,934 9,021 9,033 9,001 8,971 9,242

Personnel cost (St) /

Headcount (000)

Yield on Earning Assets (St) 2 11.7% 12.3% 11.3% 9.7% 10.0% 10.0% 9.5% 8.7%

Cost of Funds (St)3

4.7% 5.1% 4.9% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5%

Yield on Performing Adv (St) 12.4% 13.1% 11.7% 9.7% 9.5% 9.4% 8.4% 7.3%

Cost of Deposits (St) 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.1% 2.9%

Other Metrics

1,341.7 988.8

QTD (Annualized)

1,305.7 1,358.5 879.3 1,239.2

Full Year

1,167.6 1,091.8



Quarterly Trend Analysis Bank Level - Standalone


7.2

6.5

7.2

6.0 5.96.4

7.1

8.47.8 8.0 8.3

9.3

10.911.2

10.2


Rs

Bn

Profit before Tax


4.9

4.44.7

3.9 4.04.3

4.7

5.7

5.2 5.3 5.3

6.1

7.1

5.6

6.5


Rs

Bn

Profit after Tax


614

685653

698 703

752773

828847 858 866

895

945

992 994


Rs

Bn

Deposits


345358 355

364352

363

369391

377

408417

434420

430

459


Rs

Bn

Net Advances


9.6 9.6 9.9

9.4

8.8 9.0

9.5

10.6

9.8

11.3

11.0

12.813.1

14.2 13.9


Rs

Bn

Net Interest Income


0.8 0.7

1.9

1.1

0.50.8

0.3

-0.10.2

0.9

-0.10.2

0.8

1.3

0.7


Rs

Bn

Provisions


4.1 3.6

5.5

4.03.9

4.8 4.6

4.9

5.1 5.0

4.5

4.8

6.2 6.2

4.8


Rs

Bn

Non Funded Income


13.713.2

15.4

13.4

12.6

13.8

14.1

15.414.9

16.3 15.5

17.6

19.3

20.3

18.6


Rs

Bn

Revenue


5.55.8

6.1 6.2 6.26.5 6.5

6.9 6.97.2 7.1

8.0

7.37.6

7.4


Rs

Bn

Administrative Expenses


The information contained herein reflects our latest business statement as at Sep 30, 2015. Except the historical information contained herein, statements in this Release which contain words or phrases such as ‘will’, ‘would’, ‘indicating’ expected to’ etc., and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute ‘forward-looking statements’. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to our ability to successfully implement our strategy, future levels of non-performing loans, our growth and expansion in business, the impact of any acquisitions, the adequacy of our allowance for credit losses, technological, implementation and changes, the actual growth in demand for banking products and services, investment income, cash flow projections, our exposure to market risks as well as other risks detailed in the reports filed by us with various regulatory authorities as per applicable laws and regulations. UBL undertakes no obligations to update forward-looking statements to reflect event or circumstances after the date thereof.


Thank You

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