degree holders in scotland’s labour market and the impact of the recession
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Degree Holders in Scotland’s Labour Market and the Impact of the Recession. Workshop 1 Lifelong Learning Statistics User’s Conference (March 2010). Available Statistics. Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (Latest Statistics Publication available from -) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Degree Holders in Scotland’s Labour Market and the Impact of the Recession
Workshop 1Lifelong Learning Statistics
User’s Conference (March 2010)
• Available StatisticsDestinations of Leavers from Higher Education
(Latest Statistics Publication available from -)
http://scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/10091627/0
Data Collected by Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). For more information please see -http://www.hesa.ac.uk/index.php/content/view/143/173/
Annual Updates produced on 6-month destinations.
A longitudinal survey (based on 3.5 year destinations) is also run, though less frequently
Available Statistics• Latest results are for the 2007/08 Academic Year – the first leavers
to be surveyed during the recession (January 2009)
• Main Destinations for leavers from Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) were –
Permanent UK Employment - 56.3% (↓ 3.3 percentage points)Further Study / Training - 18.9% (↑ 1.4 percentage points)Temporary UK Employment - 10.5% (↑ 1.0 percentage point)Believed Unemployed - 4.9% (↑ 1.2 percentage points)
• Next results (for 2008/09 leavers) due this Summer (Headlines by HESA, followed by more detailed analysis in September)
• DLHE has many positive attributes, including its near universal coverage of leavers (its more like a census than a survey) and the level of detail it can provide by different demographics, institutions and subject groups
• Potential disadvantages of DLHE include –• 1. The Time Lag between the ‘event’ and publication• 2. The narrow focus on 1 year’s worth of leavers• 3. Is 6-months enough time to properly assess destinations?
Available Statistics
• To supplement DLHE, other sources of statistics have been investigated.
• Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Annual Population Survey (APS)
• Claimant Count Statistics (JCP)• Quarterly Employee Jobs Estimates • Public Sector Employment Statistics
• Data from this work can be viewed on our web-pages• http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Lifelong-learnin
g/Datasets
Available Statistics
• Building on DLHE, what do these sources suggest about destinations for degree-holders?
• What has been the impact of the recession?
• Where might we look to see evidence of a change in fortunes?
1. Degree Holders are a growing force in Scotland’s Labour Market
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2001Q4
2002Q4
2003Q4
2004Q4
2005Q4
2006Q4
2007Q4
2008Q4
2009Q4
Degree Holders as %of Labour Market
Degree Holders as %of Working AgePopulation
Source: Labour Force Survey
2. The proportion of Working Age Population made up of
Degree Holders varies by council
Source: Annual Population Survey 2008
3. The employment rate of working-age degree-holders in Scotland is much higher than for those without and continues to hold up far better
87.988.3
87.5
7072.2
73.9
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4
Empl
oym
ent R
ate
At least a Degree Level Qualification
Below Degree Level Qualification
0.4
-3.9
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
At le
ast a
Degr
ee L
evel
Qua
lific
atio
n
Belo
wDe
gree
Lev
elQ
ualif
icat
ion
Cha
nge
in E
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
Change in Employment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4
Source: Labour Force Survey
4. The unemployment rate of working-age degree-holders in Scotland is much lower than for those without and has seen a smaller increase
Source: Labour Force Survey
1.92.5 2.7
5.7 6
9.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
At least a Degree Level Qualification
Below Degree Level Qualification
0.8
3.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
At le
ast a
Degr
ee L
evel
Qua
lific
atio
n
Belo
wDe
gree
Lev
elQ
ualif
icat
ion
Cha
nge
in U
nem
ploy
men
t Rat
e Change in Unemployment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4
70.8%
69.0%
16.6% 18.9%
12.6% 12.1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2001Q4
2002Q4
2003Q4
2004Q4
2005Q4
2006Q4
2007Q4
2008Q4
2009Q4
Prop
ortio
n
In a Graduate Level Occupation
In a Non-Graduate Level Occupation
Unemployed or Economically Inactive
Source: Labour Force Survey
5. Whilst employment rate remains high for degree-holders, the data suggests some shift from graduate to non-graduate level occupations. Further updates will be required before any clear trend is detected
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Time
Cla
iman
ts
Monthly Figures
Annual Moving Average
Start of UK Recession
End of UK Recession
6. The most up-to-date available data is from the Claimant Count. A moving average can be used to adjust for seasonal fluctuations. The chart below shows the number of people seeking a graduate-level
occupation (not necessarily including all graduates on the CC)
Source: JCP Data from the NOMIS Website
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Time
Vaca
ncie
s
Monthly Figures
Annual Moving Average Start of UK Recession
End of UK Recession
6. Similarly, Graduate-Level Occupation vacancies at Job Centre Plus show huge seasonal fluctuations. Any sustained increase in the
moving-average may provide an early indication of improved conditions
Source: JCP Data from the NOMIS Website
Degree Holders (Proportion)
Public Administration,
Education & Health, 48.1%
Banking, Finance &
Insurance etc, 21.6%
Distribution, Hotels &
Restaurants, 7.6%
Construction and
Manufacturing, 9.5%
Other Services, 10.2%
All Workers (Proportion)
Public Administration,
Education & Health, 31.8%
Banking, Finance &
Insurance etc, 14.3%
Distribution, Hotels &
Restaurants, 18.9%
Construction and
Manufacturing, 18.3%
Other Services, 10.9%
Source: Annual Population Survey – July 2008 to June 2009
7. Degree Holders (both short-term (DLHE) and all holders) have a very different industrial sector profile to that for all workers in Scotland.
Public Administration, Education and HealthPublic Administration, Education and Health Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs up 1.3% to 737,700(due mainly to Health – PSE statistics show NHS employmentcontinues to grow)
Banking, Finance and InsuranceBanking, Finance and Insurance Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs down 4.1% to 435,100(PSE statistics report 16.0% contraction over the year up to Q4 2009 inthose employed in Scotland by the recapitalised Financial Institutions)
Construction and ManufacturingConstruction and Manufacturing Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs down 6.9% to 329,400
Distribution, Hotels and RestaurantsDistribution, Hotels and Restaurants Over the year to Sept 2009 Employee jobs down 1.9% to 511,900
8. Quarterly Employee Jobs Estimates provide an indication of the fortunes of each Industrial Sector. Public Sector Employment (PSE)
statistics also provide further detail for different areas within the Public Sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Scotland North England London / South East
Prop
ortio
n
Public Administration, Education and HealthBanking, Finance and Insurance
9. The industrial profile of Degree-Holders in Scotland is very similar to the Northern Half of England. London and South/East have a more
even match between Public Admin and Banking/Finance
Source: Annual Population Survey – July 2008 to June 2009
0.4
-3.9
-2.6
-0.9
-2.2
-3.6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Cha
nge
in E
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
At least a Degree LevelQualificationBelow Degree LevelQualification
Change in Employment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4
10. Changes in both the working-age employment rate of those with degrees and those without vary by region. The bigger fall in degree-
holder employment in London/South East may be due to the larger role of the Banking and Finance Sector in this region
Source: Labour Force Survey
0.81.2
1.9
3.5
4
2.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Scotland North England London / South East
Cha
nge
in U
nem
ploy
men
t Rat
e At least a Degree LevelQualificationBelow Degree LevelQualification
Change in Unemployment Rate Between 2007 Q4 and 2009 Q4
Source: Labour Force Survey
10. Changes in both the working-age unemployment rate of those with degrees and those without vary by region. London and the South East
appear to have witnessed a larger increase in degree-holder unemployment than both Scotland and the North of England
Discussion• 1. What questions and views do users have on this analysis?
• 2. What might it suggest for the future? For those degree-holders already in the Labour Market? For those graduating in the summer of 2010?For those graduating in the years beyond 2010?
• 3. What questions might this work raise for further analysis?Do any other sources of information exist to build on/complement this work?Are there other key questions in this field that our large-scale survey data couldinvestigate?
• 4. Do users have other interests in this field? (for example what happens to those with HE qualifications below degree level likeHNCs/HNDs? Differences by age or gender? Longer-term destinations?
• 5. Anything else?
Contact
Lifelong Learning Statistics Branch
Education Analytical Services Division
Scottish Government
0300 244 1058
March 2010