defying gravity - 2016 pioneer summit opening keynote by michael moe

DEFYING GRAVITY Pioneer Summit September 14, 2016

Michael Moe, CFA Co-Founder, GSV @michaelmoe

Bill Campbell 1940 - 2016

4 Minute Mile

Impossible is not

a fact. It’s an opinion.

— MUHAMMAD ALI

Dyslexic

Turned down by 53 banks for a business loan.

Founded 8 $1+ billion businesses.

Grew up in the segregated south…

…Finished high school at 15.

Provost at Stanford at age 39.

Launched business in 2007 with 3 air ma!resses…

…basically from a need to eat.

“Raised” ini!al capital by

selling custom cereal

boxes at 2008

campaign events.

Source: Inc.

80+ Million Nights Booked in 2015

Source: Reuters

$26 Billion Market Value

Source: Wall Street Journal

Grew up in the projects of Brooklyn.

A!ended Northern Michigan University on a

football scholarship.

24,000+ Stores

70+ Countries

$80+ Billion Market Value

Source: Yahoo Finance (9/12/2016)

Unemployed, on welfare…

…Hatched book idea while stuck on a delayed train.

400+ Million Books Sold

$25+ Billion Franchise Value

Source: Forbes, Scholastic

Failed Chinese university entrance exam 3 "mes.

Job applica"on rejected by 30 companies, including KFC.

$255+ Billion Market Value

Source: Yahoo Finance (9/12/2016)

Used to approve each new user profile manually.

25+ VC Rejec!ons

Source: Fortune

400+ Million Members

Source: VentureBeat

Acquired for $26+ Billion

Source: Wall Street Journal

30+ VC Rejec!ons

Source: Yahoo Finance

Founders banned from U.S. for viola"ng archaic FCC and

copyright laws.

3+ Billion Call Minutes per Day

Acquired for $8.5+ Billion

Christopher Columbus

King John II Portugal

1485

Queen Isabella Spain 1486

King John II Portugal

1488

Attempt 2

Genoa 1488

Venice 1488

Bartholomew Columbus

1488

King Henry VII England

1488

King Charles VIII France 1488

King Ferdinand &

Queen Isabella Spain

1489-1491

Columbus Closes the Deal

1492

10% of Revenue from New Lands in Perpetuity

Planned Voyage: Europe to Asia

Actual Voyage

FACEMASH

GRAVITATIONAL SHIFT 1: Digital Na!ves Rule

Class of 2020

18 Years Ago…

4 Trillion Searches Per Day

Smartphone = Phone

50% of the Class of 2020 think online courses are as good or be"er.

Source: Chegg

No memory of the DotCom

Bubble

Source: Forbes2007 Today

39%48%

Millennial Home Ownership

Millennials’ Projected Lifetime

Careers: 15+

Source: Forbes, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

More cars sold last year to people aged 75+ than

18-24-year-olds.

Source: Bloomberg, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

GRAVITATIONAL SHIFT 2: Geographic

Popula"on Size

1.7B 1.3B1.4BSource: Facebook, World Bank

Virtual Reality

Pokémon Go 500 million downloads

+ fastest game to reach $500 million in

revenue

Source: TechCrunch

$80 Billion

Today

2025

63% CAGR

Source: Deloitte, Goldman Sachs

$1 Billion

2000 9% of Global Popula!on

Source: The Economist, United Nations, International Monetary Fund

2000 52% of Global GDP


2000 - 2015 -0.1% GDP Growth (CAGR)


Today 26% of Popula!on Older than 60


Today 11% of Popula!on Younger than 15


In Japan last year, more

adult diapers sold than baby

diapers.

Source: NPR Marketplace, QZ

Today 1.6 Fer!lity Rate


Today 38% of Global GDP


“VChIIPs”

43% of Global Popula!on


28% of Global GDP


6.6% GDP Growth Rate


11% of Popula!on Older than 60


24% of Popula!on Younger than 15


2.3 Fer!lity Rate


Old Center of Gravity

New Center of Gravity

On Deck

Ci"es with 1M+ Popula"on

CHINA 160

U.S. 10

Source: Wikipedia, OECD

Shanghai Pudong: 1990

Shanghai Pudong: Today

Shanghai’s popula!on is 40 million…

…larger than Canada.

Xi'an (13 million) is the 10th largest city in China…

…It’s bigger than Sweden and you’ve never heard of it.

Global Middle Class: 2000

1.4 Billion

Source: OECD

Global Middle Class: Today

2.5 Billion +80%

Source: OECD

Share of Middle Class Consump"on: 2015

All Other 51%

Asia Pacific 23%

North America 26%

Source: The Brookings Institution

Share of Middle Class Consump"on: 2030

All Other 31%

Asia Pacific 59%

North America 10%

Source: The Brookings Institution

Source: Fortune (in 2014-2015)

1400 - 1900: Sea

1900 - Today: Air

Future: Space

Defense

Communica"on

Agriculture

Logis"cs

Leisure

$330 Billion Market

Source: Space Foundation

GRAVITATIONAL SHIFT 3: Automa!on

30,000 Amazon

Warehouse Robots

350+ Million Global Manufacturing +

Warehouse Workers

Source: McKinsey, GSV Asset Management

12 Million U.S. Middle Skills Jobs

Eliminated by 2025

Source: McKinsey

$7 Trillion Managed by

Robo-Financial Advisors by 2025

Source: Deloitte

3,000+ Financial

Reports Per QuarterSource: New York Times

50% Jobs At Risk of Replacement in

20 Years

Source: The Economist, Oxford University

“Our policy is to hire as many talented computer

engineers as we can find. There aren't

enough people who have these skills today.”

— MARK ZUCKERBERG

1.2 Million Computer Science

Job Openings by 2020

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Fortune

“Data Science — The sexiest job of the 21st

Century.”

1060

Time

Humans

Knowledge, Skills, Abili!esComputers

We Are Here

Killer Jobs Today… Killed Tomorrow

Automa"on Eats Jobs

Farming

Factory

Informa!on

Knowledge

GRAVITATIONAL SHIFT 4: Knowledge Economy

Weapons of Mass Instruction

GRAVITATIONAL SHIFT 5: Global Silicon Valley

Old Global Innova!on Map

London “Risk isn’t my cup of tea.”

New York City “If it’s such a good idea, why hasn’t it

been done already.”

Minneapolis “Looks promising…

Let’s test it.”

San Francisco “Can I write you a

check?”

Shanghai “Great idea. Now it’s

my idea.”

New Global Innova!on Map

Boston

Chicago

Sao Paulo

Mumbai

Shanghai

Global Silicon Valley

Imagine a connected Global

Silicon Valley.

Imagine no boundaries.

Imagine how you can change the world for good.

Dare to defy gravity.

DARE TO BE GREAT!!!

defying gravity - 2016 pioneer summit opening keynote by michael moe

Economy & Finance