The Transportation Revenue Estimatorand Needs Determination System (TRENDS) Model

Developed by the Texas Transportation Instituteand the

Texas Department of Transportation

Jessica Castiglione, P.E.Texas Department of Transportation

Project Supervisor

David R. Ellis, Ph.D.Texas Transportation Institute

Research Scientist

The TRENDS Model is designed to provide transportation planners, policy makers and the public with a tool to forecast revenues and expenses for the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) for the period 2010 through 2035. The User, through interactive windows, can control a number of variables related to assumptions regarding statewide transportation needs, population growth rates, fuel efficiency, inflation rates, taxes, fees and other elements. The output is a set of tables and graphs showing a forecast of revenues, expenditures and fund balances for each year of the analysis period.

TRENDS will be updated on a monthly basis to include the latest cash forecasts and letting schedules from TxDOT. In addition, as updates regarding population forecasts, inflation rates, fuel efficiency, and other variables become available, they will be incorporated into the model.

This paper will take the User through the model and its basic calculations by describing each of the tabs at the bottom of the Excel spreadsheet. Then, there will be a brief description of the calculations on each tab and a description of the “Data Input and Summary” tab where the results are presented.

Table of ContentsAccessing the Model......................................................................3

TRENDS Model Input2.1 New Capacity......................................................................................42.2 State Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Variables...........................................42.3 Federal Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Variables........................................72.4 Indexing the Motor Fuels Tax.............................................................82.5 Vehicle Registration Fee Variables.....................................................92.6 Percent of Revenue Dedicated to Transportation...............................92.7 VMT Tax Variables............................................................................102.8 Fuel Efficiency Variables...................................................................102.9 Fund 006 Allocations........................................................................132.10 Maintenance Variables.....................................................................142.11 Expense Variables............................................................................152.12 Bond Finance Variables....................................................................192.13 Population Option.............................................................................222.14 Local Options....................................................................................232.15 Output Option...................................................................................26

TRENDS Model Output3.1 Summary of Variables Chosen for Analysis......................................283.2 Summary of Revenues and Expenses by Year..................................283.3 Revenues minus Expenses by Year Graph........................................293.4 Cumulative Revenues minus Expenses by Year Graph.....................303.5 Revenue/Expense Statement 2009-2030.........................................303.6 Revenue/Expense Statement 2009-2035.........................................313.7 Revenue Statement for Local Options Selected 2010-2030.............323.8 Revenue Statement for Local Options Selected 2010-2035.............32

AppendicesAppendix A ................................How Population Projections were EstimatedAppendix B .........................Definition of Commercial and Personal Vehicles

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1. ACCESSING THE MODEL

The TRENDS is available on the web at http://trends-tti.tamu.edu. Click on the “Proceed” button to begin the analysis.

The TRENDS model will take you through all of the parameters that must be considered in order to produce a result. Once you click on the “Proceed” button on the first page of the model, the following screen will appear:

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2. TRENDS MODEL INPUT

This chapter offers a step-by-step guide on how to interpret the questions asked in the TRENDS model. Each section in this User’s Guide is ordered according to how each section appears in the TRENDS model.

2.1 New Capacity

The first question you will be asked is: “Would you like to invest additional state funds in increased transportation capacity?” (Yes or No). The default answer is “No”. If you answer “Yes”, additional questions appear. You will be asked how much additional capacity (in dollars) you would like to provide (in billions of dollars), in what year you would like the improvements to begin, and the year in which you would like the improvements to be completed. (see below)

2.2 State Gasoline and Diesel Tax Variables

Once you have entered the amount of new capacity that is desired as well as the years in which the improvements are to be done, the TRENDS Model will now ask you a series of questions regarding tax rates. Prior to beginning the analysis, the screen looks as follows:

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As you can see, the first question you will be asked relates to the state gasoline tax. The current state gasoline tax rate is 20 cents per gallon. The TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the gasoline tax rate. The default answer is “No.” If you change the answer to “Yes”, TRENDS will ask the amount of the increase and the fiscal year in which you would like the increase to become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading 0 first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1. (see below)

Once you have entered this information, you will notice that TRENDS will ask if you would like to increase the gasoline tax again. Again, the default answer is “No”. If you change answer to “Yes”, the model again asks for the amount of the increase and the fiscal year in which the increase is to become effective. (see below)

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The next set of questions pertains to the state diesel fuel tax. This section of the model operates exactly like the gasoline tax section. As can be seen in the screen shot above, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the state diesel fuel tax. Again, the default answer is “No”. If you would like to increase the state diesel fuel tax, simply change the answer to “Yes”. When the answer to the question is changed to “Yes”, like in the gasoline tax section, an expanded menu becomes visible. (see below)

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You are then asked to enter the amount of the increase in cents per gallon and the year in which you would like the increase to become effective. You also have the option of increasing the diesel fuel tax again by entering the amount of the second increase and the fiscal year it is to become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading zero first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1.

2.3 Federal Gasoline and Diesel Tax Variables

The TRENDS Model also allows you to assess the estimated impact of an increase in federal fuel taxes. This section of the model works identically to the state fuel tax section.

As you can see in the screen shot below, the first question you will be asked relates to the federal gasoline tax. The current federal gasoline tax rate is 20 cents per gallon. The TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the federal gasoline tax rate. The default answer is “No.” (see below)

As in the state fuel tax section, if you change the answer to “Yes”, TRENDS will ask the amount of the increase and the fiscal year in which you would like the increase to become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading zero first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1.

As with the state motor fuels taxes, you also have the option to increase the federal gasoline tax a second time. The same procedure is followed for the federal diesel fuel tax.

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The last line of this section asks “Total federal reimbursement as a percent of federal fuel tax revenue.” This space allows you to enter the amount that will be reimbursed to you from total federal fuel tax revenue collected. The default answer is 85 percent. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading 0 first. For example, 1/10 th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1. (see below)

2.4 Indexing the Motor Fuels Tax

The next section of the TRENDS Model relates to the question of indexing the motor fuels tax. There are two options for indexing the state motor fuels tax: the tax can be indexed to the state Highway Cost Index or it can be indexed to the Consumer Price Index. The default answer to both indexing options is “No”. If you wish to index the state fuel tax, simple change the default answer to “Yes”. (NOTE: Only one of the indexing options can be used. The model will not allow you to answer “Yes” to both options.) If you decide to index the state motor fuels tax, then enter the fiscal year in which you want indexing to begin. (see below)

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2.5 Percent Revenue dedicated to Transportation

Under provisions of the Texas Constitution, three-quarters of state motor fuel taxes are dedicated to transportation with one-quarter dedicated to public education. Approximately one percent is retained by the Comptroller of Public Accounts. The TRENDS model provides you with the option to change the percentage allocation of the increase in state motor fuel taxes you have entered. (This entry DOES NOT change the distribution of the existing 20 cent per gallon fuel tax. It only changes the allocation of the INCREASE in state motor fuels taxes.) The default answer is 74 percent.

2.6 Vehicle Registration Fee Variables

The next set of questions relates to vehicle registration fees. First, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase vehicle registration fees. Again, the default answer is “No”. (see below)

If you would like to increase vehicle registration fees, change the answer to “Yes”. Once the option is changed, an additional set of questions appears. (see below)

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The TRENDS Model asks you to enter the PERCENT increase in vehicle registration fees and the fiscal year in which you want the increase to become effective. (For example, if you would like to double vehicle registration fees, enter 100 percent.) As with the fuel tax options, you have ability to increase registration fees again and set the effective data of the second increase.

2.7 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Tax

The next section of the model relates to imposing a state vehicle miles traveled tax, or VMT tax). Again, the default answer is “No”. (see below)

If you would like to impose a VMT fee, change the answer to “Yes”. Once the answer is changed to “Yes”, a new set of options appear.

You are asked to enter the rate (in cents per mile) of the VMT tax on personal vehicles as well as the rate (again, in cents per mile) of the VMT tax on commercial vehicles.

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(See appendix for criteria used to differentiate between personal and commercial vehicles). Next, you are asked to enter the effective date of the tax. Finally, if you wish to stop collecting the state gasoline tax and/or the state diesel fuel tax you have that option by entering the last year in which the fuel tax will be collected. If you want to continue collecting the fuel tax in addition to the VMT tax, set the value to 2035. For decimal values less than one, you will need to enter a preceding zero first. (see below)

2.8 Fuel Efficiency Variables

Projections of fuel economy, along with projections of the future population, are key elements of projecting future revenues. In late 2006, TxDOT contracted with Cambridge Systematics to forecast future levels of fuel efficiency for personal and commercial vehicles. The Cambridge Systematics analysis included alternative assumptions regarding the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. This analysis was then adjusted to account for the proportional contribution to total vehicle miles traveled of each vehicle type in Texas. Low, medium and high fuel efficiency scenarios were produced. These alternative fuel efficiency scenarios are presented below. (See appendix for criteria used in this model to differentiate between personal and commercial vehicles).

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Personal Commercial Personal Commercial Personal CommercialYear Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles2006 18.3657 6.0057 18.3657 6.0057 18.3657 6.00572007 19.0761 6.0183 19.0857 6.0192 19.0809 6.01882008 19.8017 6.0322 19.8412 6.0357 19.8215 6.03402009 20.5429 6.0476 20.6534 6.0570 20.5981 6.05232010 21.3000 6.0647 21.5627 6.0864 21.4313 6.07552011 22.0687 6.0882 22.5354 6.1338 22.3021 6.11102012 22.4190 6.1089 23.1374 6.1749 22.7782 6.14192013 22.7793 6.1311 23.7531 6.2203 23.2662 6.17572014 23.1505 6.1548 24.4243 6.2706 23.7874 6.21272015 23.5334 6.1802 25.1604 6.3264 24.3469 6.25332016 23.9288 6.2075 25.9733 6.3885 24.9510 6.29802017 24.3378 6.2368 26.8773 6.4579 25.6076 6.34742018 24.7616 6.2684 27.8910 6.5356 26.3263 6.40202019 25.2014 6.3026 29.0376 6.6230 27.1195 6.46282020 25.6587 6.3395 30.3475 6.7216 28.0031 6.53062021 26.1351 6.3796 31.8604 6.8334 28.9977 6.60652022 26.6324 6.4230 33.6301 6.9605 30.1313 6.69182023 27.1529 6.4704 35.7302 7.1059 31.4415 6.78822024 27.6988 6.5220 38.2651 7.2732 32.9819 6.89762025 28.2728 6.5784 41.3873 7.4667 34.8300 7.02252026 28.8782 6.6401 44.9660 7.6704 36.9221 7.15532027 29.5184 6.7079 49.1075 7.8851 39.3129 7.29652028 30.1977 6.7825 53.9533 8.1117 42.0755 7.44712029 30.9207 6.8648 59.6970 8.3513 45.3088 7.60802030 31.6932 6.9559 66.6102 8.6049 49.1517 7.78042031 32.0659 6.9889 70.5898 8.7097 51.3279 7.84932032 32.4429 7.0222 74.8073 8.8158 53.6251 7.91902033 32.8245 7.0555 79.2767 8.9232 56.0506 7.98942034 33.2104 7.0891 84.0132 9.0319 58.6118 8.06053035 33.6010 7.1228 89.0326 9.1419 61.3168 8.1324

Low MPG Scenario High MPG Scenario Average MPG Scenario

The TRENDS model allows the user to enter the assumption regarding fuel efficiency for both personal and commercial vehicles to be used in calculating the amount of fuel used and, in turn, the amount of fuel tax revenues derived from the fuel that is consumed. The fuel efficiency option is selected under the heading “Fuel Efficiency Variables”. The default selection is the “Average” scenario. (see below)

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2.9 Fund 006 Allocations to other Agencies

Several allocations are made from Fund 006 (“The Highway Fund”) to other state agencies. Over the years, as the State has sought new sources of general revenue, the number of agencies who receive transfers from Fund 006 has grown. Currently, agencies who receive revenues from Fund 006 include the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Office of the Attorney General, State Health and Human Services Commission, the Texas Department of Corrections and others. These expenditures account for 13.8 percent of total outflow from Fund 006.1 (Click here for more information regarding Fund 6 allocation.)

Therefore, this section asks if you wish to eliminate some or all of the fund 006 allocations to other state agencies. The default answer for this question is “No”. If you would like to eliminate some or all of the fund 006 allocations to other agencies, change the answer to “Yes”. Once the answer is changed to “Yes”, a new set of options appear. (see below)

1 Legislative Budget Board. Overview of the State Highway Fund 0006 Revenues and Allocations, the Texas Mobility Fund, and the Texas Rail Relocation and Improvement Fund. Austin: April 2008.

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You are first asked to enter the percent of fund 006 allocations to other agencies that you wish to be eliminated. Next, you are asked to enter in the year in which you want fund 006 allocations to other agencies to be eliminated. Note that model will not allow you to enter any year greater than 2035.

2.10 Maintenance Variables

This section deals with the different funding scenarios outlined by the 2030 Committee report that could exist with estimated preventative maintenance and rehabilitative needs for the current road infrastructure maintained by TxDOT.

Each year, ride quality and pavement condition is measured to determine pavement scores on Texas roadways. Low levels of distress such as rutting, cracking and a good ride quality result in a high score. Pavement Condition Scores that are from 100 – 90 are categorized as ‘Very Good’; 89 – 70 are ‘Good’; 69 – 50 are ‘Fair’; 49 – 35 are ‘Poor’ and 34 and below are ‘Very Poor.’ The percentage of roads in “Good” or better condition consists of the percentage of total pavement in Texas with a pavement condition score of 70 or above.2

This section first asks the user whether they want to use the current TxDOT maintenance scenario. By selecting “Yes,” you are assuming that the existing 191 thousand on-system lane-miles will be funded the current budgeted levels over the course of the analysis period. This level of funding results in an estimated 20 percent or less of pavements in “Good” or better condition by 2030.

Alternatively, by selecting “No,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “To the right are three alternative selections representing the percent of pavement in “Good” or better condition. Select one of the 2030 Committee pavement maintenance recommendations:” The Committee estimated that in order to achieve 80 percent “Good” better roads in Texas by 2030, $64 billion will be required to treat 204

2 2030 Committee. 2030 Committee Texas Transportation Needs Report. Austin. February 2009. (pp. 25-26)

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thousand miles of roadway (191 thousand existing miles plus additional lane-miles added). For 87 percent, the Committee predicted $73 billion would be required to treat 204 thousand miles of roadway. Finally, for 90 percent, $77 billion would be needed to treat 204 thousand miles of Texas roadway by 2030.3 (see below) A detailed description of roadway maintenance projections can be found here.

Note: The 2030 Committee recommended that in order to “preserve asset value” of the current transportation infrastructure in Texas, roads should be maintained at 90 percent “Good or Better” pavement condition.4

2.11 Expense Variables

The first question in this section asks, “Use default values for category expense increases? (Currently 0 percent)” (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “Yes”. (see below)

3 2030 Committee. 2030 Committee Texas Transportation Needs Report. Austin. February 2009. (p. 18)4 2030 Committee. 2030 Committee Texas Transportation Needs Report. Austin. February 2009. (p. 19)

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If you select “No,” an new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will ask you for the increases in expenses that you anticipate for select TxDOT expense categories. (For a detailed summary of each of these expense categories, click here and scroll to page 3)

First, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 5 CMAQ (Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality) expenses from 2020-2035. This category deals with federal funds directed toward addressing attainment of air quality standards within non-attainment areas. Enter the percent increase in Category 5 expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 7 STP Metro Mobility and Maintenance expenses (2020-2035). This category addresses transportation needs by Metropolitan Planning Organizations in population regions with 200,000 or greater. These funds are allocated directly from the FHWA. Enter the percent increase in Category 7 expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 8 Federal Safety expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with federal funds directed toward installation of railroad crossing guards and other safety improvement projects. Enter the percent increase in Category 8 expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 9 Federal Enhancement expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with funding toward roadway rest areas and roadway enhancement projects. Enter the percent increase in Category 9 expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 10 Congressional Earmarks TPWD expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with federal funds allocated toward enhancing state park roads, railroad grade crossing repairs, the Coordinated Border Infrastructure Program and Congressional High Priority Districts. Enter the percent increase in Category 10 expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 11 District Discretionary funding (2020-2035). This category deals with transportation projects selected at the discretion of the TxDOT district. Enter the percent increase in Category 11 expenses that you anticipate here.5 (see below)

5 Texas State Senate. Senate Finance Committee and Senate Transportation and Homeland Security Committee, Allocations of State Transportation Resources Hearing. Austin. March 1, 2006.

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The next question in this sections asks, “Use default values for other expense increases? (Currently 5 percent). (Yes or No.)” The 5 percent is calculated based on the normal projected increase in inflation and the normal increase for other goods and services from 2020-2035. The default answer to this question is “Yes”. (see below)

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If you anticipate expenses to increase at a different rate than 5 percent per year, select No. Now, a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will ask you for the increases in expenses that you anticipate. You will notice that the default answer for these choices is 5 percent.

First, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in engineering, administration, and research expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase in these expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Right of Way expenses. Enter the percent increase in these expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Pavement Maintenance and Construction expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) Operations expenses between 2020 and 2035. One of TxDOT’s main responsibilities is to provide lands, easements, realignments and relocations required during construction and maintenance.6 (Click here to find more information about TxDOT funding of the GIWW.) Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Travel/Traffic expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in vehicle registration expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Automobile Burglary and Theft Prevention Authority Assessment (ABTPA) expenses between 2020 and 2035. This authority is intended to support statewide law enforcement through public awareness, education, and auto theft reduction initiatives.7 Enter the percent increase in ABTPA expenses that you anticipate here.

Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in cost of other agencies funded by TxDOT between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.

6 Texas Department of Transportation. Gulf Intracoastal Waterway 2005-2006 Legislative Report. Austin. 2005. 7 Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts web site. Texas Taxes - Texas Automobile Burglary and Theft Prevention Authority Assessment, Accessed 28 March 2010. <http://www.window.state.tx.us/taxinfo/insurance/atp.html>

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Finally, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in contributions from TxDOT to Comptroller and Retirement between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here. (see below)

2.12 Bond Finance Variables

The first question in this sections asks, “Do you want to issue Proposition 12 bonds? (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No”. Proposition 12 bonds were authorized to give up to$5 billion in general obligation bonds (bonds supported using general revenue rather than fuel tax revenues) to be spent for transportation projects.8 (see below (Detailed information about Proposition 12 bonds can be found by clicking here.)

8 Texas Department of Transportation web site. Proposition 12 Fact sheet, Accessed 28 March 2010. < http://www.dot.state.tx.us/project_information/prop12/facts.htm>

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If you select “Yes,” a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will then ask you the Proposition 12 amount in billions of dollars you wish to issue. For decimal values less than 1, you will need to enter a preceding “0”. Next, the model will ask for the number of years in which you expect to receive Proposition 12 proceeds. The smallest number of years you can enter for this question is 3. Finally, the TRENDS model will ask you for the first year in which you wish to receive Proposition 12 proceeds. (see below)

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The TRENDS model then will ask “Do you want is issue Proposition 14 Bonds? (Yes or No).” The default answer is “No.” Proposition 14 bonds can be issued by state transportation agencies to fund transportation-related projects. These bonds are short term and are secured by the state highway fund. These bonds are intended to help address short-term cash flow shortfalls for TxDOT and to accelerate transportation project financing.9 (see below) A detailed description about Proposition 14 bonds can be found by clicking here.

If you select “Yes,” a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will then ask you the Proposition 14 bond amount in billions of dollars you wish to issue. For decimal values less than 1, you will need to enter a preceding “0”. Next, the model will ask for the number of years in which you expect to receive Proposition 14 proceeds. The smallest number of years you can enter in this space is 3. The TRENDS model will then ask you for the first year in which you wish to receive Proposition 14 proceeds. Finally, you will be asked for the year in which you expect to begin paying back Proposition 14 bonds. (see below)

After you are finished filling out the responses on this page, click on “Continue” to move to the next set of questions.

9 House Research Organization. Proposition 14: Allowing borrowing by the Texas Transportation Commission. Austin. 2008. <http://www.hro.house.state.tx.us/focus/prop78-14.pdf>

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2.13 Population Option

The TRENDS model presents four options for population projections from 2010 to 2030. The first option suggests that migration rates will be one-half those experienced from 1990 to 2000 in Texas. This is the most conservative option, or the “low” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2004. This choice is the default option, or the “medium” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2007. This is the “medium-high” growth scenario. The last choice suggests that population growth will be equal to what was experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. This forecast is the “high” population scenario. Click on the corresponding radio button that you wish to use. A detailed list of population projections used in this model is provided below. You may also consult the appendix chapter of this User’s Guide for a detailed explanation on how these population projections were generated.

Population Growth Assumptions for Texas

Year"Low"

Scenario"Medium" Scenario

"Med-High" Scenario

"High" Scenario

2000 20,851,820 20,851,820 20,851,820 20,851,820

2001 21,183,522 21,229,706 21,250,706 21,306,644

2002 21,519,983 21,619,331 21,662,156 21,776,330

2003 21,860,876 22,020,139 22,086,390 22,260,876

2004 22,206,348 22,432,435 22,523,650 22,761,149

2005 22,556,046 22,856,008 22,973,810 23,276,607

2006 22,907,223 23,287,920 23,433,853 23,805,208

2007 23,259,904 23,728,511 23,903,779 24,347,002

2008 23,614,497 24,178,199 24,383,647 24,902,640

2009 23,971,472 24,637,293 24,873,773 25,473,249

2010 24,330,646 25,105,642 25,373,947 26,058,595

2011 24,692,181 25,583,279 25,883,999 26,659,069

2012 25,056,041 26,070,062 26,403,743 27,275,174

2013 25,421,596 26,565,652 26,932,619 27,906,493

2014 25,788,871 27,069,509 27,470,110 28,553,044

2015 26,156,723 27,581,160 28,015,550 29,213,840

2016 26,525,342 28,100,268 28,568,732 29,889,182

2017 26,894,510 28,626,864 29,129,530 30,578,869

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2018 27,264,173 29,160,936 29,697,950 31,283,094

2019 27,634,725 29,702,821 30,274,269 32,002,430

2020 28,005,740 30,252,566 30,858,449 32,736,716

2021 28,379,265 30,812,404 31,452,815 33,488,495

2022 28,755,407 31,382,805 32,057,766 34,258,659

2023 29,133,905 31,963,803 32,673,327 35,047,389

2024 29,514,719 32,555,500 33,299,749 35,855,312

2025 29,897,410 33,158,037 33,936,986 36,682,200

2026 30,281,758 33,771,210 34,584,918 37,528,671

2027 30,667,584 34,395,216 35,243,768 38,395,244

2028 31,054,394 35,029,975 35,913,396 39,281,907

2029 31,442,197 35,675,788 36,593,880 40,189,388

2030 31,830,575 36,332,892 37,285,486 41,117,631

2.14 Local Options

At present, local options for funding the transportation network are limited to revenue bonds (and tolls), general obligation bonds, a portion of vehicle registration fees, plus local sales and property taxes. This section of the model allows the user to assess the impact of local fuel taxes, a local VMT fee and local vehicle registration fees if such enabling legislation allowing their use were to be adopted by the Texas Legislature. For the purpose of assessing hypothetical scenarios, the level of analysis built into the model is the Metropolitan Planning Organization.

2.14-1 Local Revenue Options

The first question in this section asks, “Do you want to do a local option revenue analysis? (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No.” By clicking “Yes,” a new set of options appear. This section allows you to select local revenue projections for Metropolitain Planning Organizations in Texas. This will allow you to view a statement of revenue for a specific MPO that you select as well as compare multiple MPO’s in one statement. Click all the MPO’s that you would like to include in the data output here. (see below)

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2.14-2 Local Fuel Tax

The next set of questions relates to local fuel taxes. First, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to change the local fuel tax rate. The default answer is “No”.By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you increase the local gasoline tax?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local gasoline tax. (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. Follow the same process for the local diesel tax section. (see below)

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2.14-3 Local VMT Tax

The next set of questions relates to local vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local VMT tax. The default answer is “No”.

By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local personal VMT?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local personal VMT tax. Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local commercial VMT?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. (see below)

2.14-4 Local Vehicle Registration Fee

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The next set of questions relates to local vehicle registration fees. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local vehicle registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)

By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local vehicle passenger fee for vehicles less than 6000 lbs.?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local passenger vehicle fee for vehicles greater than 6000 lbs.?” Follow the same process for the local truck fee and local motorcycle fee questions that follow. The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the fee increases to take effect. (see below)

2.14-5 Local Fuel Efficiency

The next set of questions relates to local fuel efficiency. This might be useful if you feel that your locality has a higher or lower number of fuel efficient vehicles relative to other areas in Texas. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local Vehicle Registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)

By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks you to select the fuel efficiency for local commercial vehicles. You are provided three options: low fuel efficiency, average fuel efficiency, and high fuel efficiency. (You may consult the fuel efficiency discussion at the end of the User’s Guide for a detailed description on fuel efficiency projections). Follow the same process for selecting the fuel efficiency assumption for local personal vehicles. (see below)

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2.15 Output Option

In this section, you are given options that allow you to manipulate how you want your output to be presented. This section will ask you to check what you want to be generated in the output. Click all that apply. (see below)

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Finally, after you enter all your variables into the TRENDS model, you may click “Submit.”

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3. TRENDS MODEL OUTPUT

This section provides an explanation of each output view generated from the TRENDS model. Depending on what you selected in the Output Option section in the model input, some of the views provided below will not appear in your final output.

3.1 “Variables I have Chosen for this Analysis” Output Window

This page gives you a brief overview of the selections that you provided in the input section of the TRENDS model. Note that by clicking the “Get PDF format report here” in the upper left-hand corner, you can generate the page to appear in printable PDF format. (An example output is provided below)

3.2 “Summary of Revenues and Expenses by Year” Output

This view shows the Projected Revenue and Expenditures (in millions) from 2009 to 2035. Columns include the Fiscal Year, Total Revenues, Maintenance and Operating Expenditures, New Capacity Expenditures, Annual Balance of Funds, and Cumulative Balance. Note that by clicking the “Get PDF format report here” in the upper left-hand corner, you can generate the page to appear in printable PDF format. (An example output is provided below)

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3.3 “Graph of Revenues minus Expenses by Year” View

This is a graphical representation of the Annual Balance of Funds (in millions) from 2009 to 2035. This graph displays the year on the X Axis with the revenues on the Y Axis. Make careful note on the difference between the positive numbers and negative dollar amounts provided. Negative amounts below the X axis represent budget shortfalls for that fiscal year. (An example output is provided below).

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3.4 “Graph of Cumulative Revenues minus Expenses by Year” Output Window

This is a graphical representation of the Cumulative Balance of Funds (in millions) from 2009 to 2035. This graph displays the year on the X Axis with balance of funds along the Y Axis. Make careful note on the difference between the positive numbers and negative dollar amounts provided. Negative amounts below the X axis represent budget shortfalls for that fiscal year. (An example output is provided below)

3.5 “Revenue and Expense Statement for the period 2009-2030” Output Window

This view shows the Revenues and Expenses projected from 2009-2030. Revenue categories include State Revenues, Federal Reimbursements, and total revenues. Expense categories include the 12 expense categories as determined by TxDOT, costs for each of the five major TxDOT operations strategies, TxDOT financing functions, and costs for new capacity. The final green column provides you with the overall balance projection (in millions) from 2009-2030. (An example output is provided below)

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3.6 “Revenue and Expense Statement for the period 2009-2035” Output Window

This view shows the Revenues and Expenses projected from 2009-2030. Revenue categories include State Revenues, Federal Reimbursements, and total revenues. Expense categories include the 12 expense categories as determined by TxDOT, costs for each of the five major TxDOT operations strategies, TxDOT financing functions, and costs for new capacity. The final green column provides you with the overall balance projection (in millions) from 2009-2035. (An example output is provided below)

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3.7 “Statement of Revenue for the local options selected to 2030” Output Window

Depending on the MPO selected in the Local Revenue Options section of the TRENDS model input, the output will provide you with a local revenue statement from 2010-2030. Each column provides the fiscal year in which the revenue is earned. Each row shows revenue earned from each taxing category. These include: Local Option Gasoline Tax Revenues, Local Option Diesel Tax Revenues, Local Option Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Revenues, and Local Option Vehicle Registration Revenues. The fifth row is a total of all these revenues earned for each fiscal year. The last row is a total of all revenues earned from each taxing category from 2010-2030. (An example comparison of the Houston/Galveston MPO with Capital Area MPO is provided below)

3.8 “Statement of Revenue for the local options selected to 2035” Output Window

Depending on the MPO selected in the Local Revenue Options section of the TRENDS model input, the output will provide you with a local revenue statement from 2010-2035. The columns provide the fiscal year that the revenue is earned. Each row shows revenue earned from each taxing category. These include: Local Option Gasoline Tax Revenues, Local Option Diesel Tax Revenues, Local Option Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fee Revenues, and Local Option Vehicle Registration Revenues. The fifth row is a total of all these revenues earned for each fiscal year. The last column is a total of all revenues earned from each taxing category from 2010-2030. (An example comparing the Houston/Galveston MPO with Capital Area MPO is provided below)

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APPENDIX A – ESTIMATION OF POPULATION

This model employs four alternative population projection scenarios, titled the 1.0, 0.5 and 04 scenario. The 1.0 scenario assumes that population migration rates are equal to those experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. The 0.5 Scenario assumes population migration rates one-half the rates experienced from 1990 to 2000. The 04 Scenario assumes migration rates estimated for the period 2000 to 2004. The 07 Scenario assumes migration rates estimated for the period 2000 to 2007. Under these alternative assumptions, the 1.0 Scenario produces the largest population, the 0.5 Scenario produces the smallest future population and the 04 Scenario produces a population that is roughly a mid-range between the 1.0 and 0.5 Scenarios. Alternative projections of future Texas population were secured from the Texas State Data Center website at the following web address: http://txsdc.utsa.edu/.

Details of the results of the alternative population forecasts are presented below.

YEAR 0.5 2000-2004 2000-2007 1.02008 23,614,468 24,178,180 24,383,647 24,902,6392009 23,971,476 24,637,254 24,873,773 25,473,2562010 24,330,612 25,105,646 25,373,947 26,058,5652011 24,692,184 25,583,249 25,883,999 26,659,0842012 25,056,035 26,070,099 26,403,743 27,275,1962013 25,421,611 26,565,655 26,932,619 27,906,4992014 25,788,872 27,069,526 27,470,110 28,553,0972015 26,156,715 27,581,188 28,015,550 29,213,8012016 26,525,347 28,100,315 28,568,732 29,889,1432017 26,894,510 28,626,868 29,129,530 30,578,9242018 27,264,177 29,160,863 29,697,950 31,283,0922019 27,634,735 29,702,803 30,274,269 32,002,4322020 28,005,788 30,252,539 30,858,449 32,736,6932021 28,379,252 30,812,396 31,452,815 33,488,5622022 28,755,425 31,382,834 32,057,766 34,258,6962023 29,133,913 31,963,803 32,673,327 35,047,3932024 29,514,739 32,555,481 33,299,749 35,855,2492025 29,897,443 33,158,042 33,936,986 36,682,1632026 30,281,749 33,771,203 34,584,918 37,528,7222027 30,667,562 34,395,189 35,243,768 38,395,2212028 31,054,431 35,029,972 35,913,396 39,281,9242029 31,442,217 35,675,768 36,593,880 40,189,3632030 31,830,589 36,332,880 37,285,486 41,117,6242031 32,220,722 37,002,633 37,989,546 42,068,7272032 32,611,793 37,684,240 38,705,621 43,042,6532033 33,003,541 38,377,918 39,433,732 44,039,6532034 33,396,336 39,084,191 40,174,225 45,060,7202035 33,789,668 39,802,939 40,927,000 46,105,933

Alternative Migration Scenarios

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Low MPG Scenario

High MPG Scenario

Average MPG Scenario

Perso

nalCommer

cial Perso

nalCommer

cial Perso

nalCommer

cialYear

Vehicles Vehicles

Vehicles Vehicles

Vehicles Vehicles

2006

18.3657 6.0057

18.3657 6.0057

18.3657 6.0057

2007

19.0761 6.0183

19.0857 6.0192

19.0809 6.0188

2008

19.8017 6.0322

19.8412 6.0357

19.8215 6.0340

2009

20.5429 6.0476

20.6534 6.0570

20.5981 6.0523

2010

21.3000 6.0647

21.5627 6.0864

21.4313 6.0755

2011

22.0687 6.0882

22.5354 6.1338

22.3021 6.1110

2012

22.4190 6.1089

23.1374 6.1749

22.7782 6.1419

2013

22.7793 6.1311

23.7531 6.2203

23.2662 6.1757

2014

23.1505 6.1548

24.4243 6.2706

23.7874 6.2127

2015

23.5334 6.1802

25.1604 6.3264

24.3469 6.2533

2016

23.9288 6.2075

25.9733 6.3885

24.9510 6.2980

2017

24.3378 6.2368

26.8773 6.4579

25.6076 6.3474

2018

24.7616 6.2684

27.8910 6.5356

26.3263 6.4020

2019

25.2014 6.3026

29.0376 6.6230

27.1195 6.4628

2020

25.6587 6.3395

30.3475 6.7216

28.0031 6.5306

2021

26.1351 6.3796

31.8604 6.8334

28.9977 6.6065

2022

26.6324 6.4230

33.6301 6.9605

30.1313 6.6918

2023

27.1529 6.4704

35.7302 7.1059

31.4415 6.7882

2024

27.6988 6.5220

38.2651 7.2732

32.9819 6.8976

2025

28.2728 6.5784

41.3873 7.4667

34.8300 7.0225

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2026

28.8782 6.6401

44.9660 7.6704

36.9221 7.1553

2027

29.5184 6.7079

49.1075 7.8851

39.3129 7.2965

2028

30.1977 6.7825

53.9533 8.1117

42.0755 7.4471

2029

30.9207 6.8648

59.6970 8.3513

45.3088 7.6080

2030

31.6932 6.9559

66.6102 8.6049

49.1517 7.7804

2031

32.5129 7.0548

71.2729 8.8669

51.8929 7.9608

2032

33.3782 7.1608

75.5492 9.1370

54.4637 8.1489

2033

34.2879 7.2734

79.3267 9.4153

56.8073 8.3443

2034

35.2408 7.3921

82.4998 9.7020

58.8703 8.5471

2035

36.2366 7.5164

84.9748 9.9975

60.6057 8.7570

2036

37.2746 7.6460

86.6742 10.3021

61.9744 8.9740

2037

38.3547 7.7806

87.9744 10.6159

63.1646 9.1982

2038

39.4771 7.9199

88.8541 10.9392

64.1656 9.4296

2039

40.6417 8.0638

89.6982 11.2724

65.1700 9.6681

2040

41.8490 8.2122

90.5459 11.6157

66.1974 9.9140

APPENDIX B – COMMERCIAL & PERSONAL VEHICLESThis model employs the use of personal and commercial vehicle fuel efficiency averages when determining fuel efficiency factors as well as vehicle registration. The amount of revenue earned from commercial and personal vehicles is fairly easy to differentiate because 98 percent of commercial vehicles burn diesel fuel and 97 percent of personal vehicles burn gasoline.

According to the Texas Transportation Code Section 501.241, a commercial motor vehicle is defined as:

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A vehicle (or combination of vehicles) with a gross weight, registered weight, or gross weight rating exceeding 26,000 pounds, that is designed or used for transportation of cargo in furtherance of any commercial enterprise

For-hire vehicle used to transport household goods, regardless of gross weight rating

Vehicle, including a bus, designed or used to transport more than 15 passengers, including the driver

Vehicle defined by 49 CFR §390.5, owned or controlled by someone domiciled in, or a citizen of, a country other than the United States

Any other vehicle used in the transport of intrastate or interstate commercial goods

According to the Texas Transportation Code Section 501.241, a passenger motor vehicle is defined as:

A passenger car used to transport persons and designed to accommodate 10 or fewer passengers, including the operator.

A truck, including a pickup truck, panel delivery truck, or carryall truck, that has a manufacturer's rated carrying capacity of 2,000 pounds or less.

A motor vehicle, other than a tractor, that is equipped with a rider's saddle and designed to have when propelled not more than three wheels on the ground.

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