Deep Deep Deep Deep DecarbonisationDecarbonisationDecarbonisationDecarbonisation for Indian Industries: for Indian Industries: for Indian Industries: for Indian Industries:

reflections on strategy, policy and international reflections on strategy, policy and international reflections on strategy, policy and international reflections on strategy, policy and international

cooperationcooperationcooperationcooperation

Joyashree Roy

Bangabandhu Chair Professor, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand

@iets, Vienna, Austria

October 11,2019

Transformational changes in process

technology

Pace of process change – not similar for all industries

Cement

Steel

Source: Dasgupta and Roy 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11

% s

har

e in

cru

de

stee

l

EAF

BOF

OHF

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1985-86 1990-91 1996-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11

% s

hare

in

ce

men

t

Dry

Wet

Other

What Indian industries are doing?What Indian industries are doing?What Indian industries are doing?What Indian industries are doing?

Source: Chakraborty & Roy 2012

Energy Efficiency

Based on Annual Survey of Industries, India 1973-74 – 2010-11Dasgupta and Roy (2017)

Decomposition of energy demand -Indian manufacturing industries

Energy Efficiency

Catching up with BAT

Energy efficiency performance of Indian industries vis-à-vis world

0

30

60

90

120

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

GJ/

ton

Aluminium

0

30

60

90

120

150

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

kW

h/

ton

Cement

0

20

40

60

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

GJ/

ton

Iron and Steel

0

20

40

60

GJ/

ton

Paper

Source: Dasgupta and Roy 2015

Primary energy emission decomposition-All India

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Ch

an

ge

in

em

issi

on

(mil

lio

n t

on

ne

CO

2)

Change in

total emission

Activity

growth

Energy

intensity

Structural

change

Fuel mix

Das 2019. Unpublished Ph D Thesis

Driving forces behind actions

Ex

po

rta

bil

ity

Co

nsu

me

r d

em

an

d

Pri

ce c

on

sid

era

tio

n

Infl

ue

nce

of

po

lic

y

Co

st C

om

pe

titi

ve

ne

ss

Source: Chakraborty & Roy 2012

Costs associated with the energy efficiency measures (USD2010/tCO2)

• achieving near‐zero emission intensity levels in the industry sector would require additional realization of long‐term step‐change options and these options are associated with higher cost

Energy Conservation Awards (since 1991)

Electrical energy saving in terms of equivalent avoided Capacity in MW

Participation (voluntary) increased from 123 units in 1999 to 773 in 2012

Investment energy conservation in 2012 = INR. 1948 Crores

Monetary saving achieved in 2013 = INR. 2886 Crores in 2013

A payback period of 8 months

Bureau of Energy Efficiency, Government of India, 2014

Results from GCAM

Reference scenario

Global Carbon price

scenario

Advanced EE

technology scenario

Global carbon price

with advanced EE

technology scenario

Source: Dasgupta, Roy et.al (2017)

Potential beyond energy intensive industries

Industries other than energy

intensive industries covered

under PAT – big role to play

Source: Dasgupta, Roy et.al (2017)

Implications for power generation

Projected consumption of fuel use for electricity generation in Indian in 2050: comparison of Reference scenario and green growth policy scenario

Long run green growth in industry requires large scale electrification

Source: Dasgupta, Roy et.al (2017)

Fuel mix in installed capacity, as on March 2017

Source: CEA, 2017

Coal

59%

Gas

8%

Nuclear

2%

Hydro

14%

SHP

1%

Wind

10%

Biomass

2%

Solar

4%

RES

17%

Capacity expansion

Source: CEA, 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Solar Wind Other Res

Installed capacity as on March 2016 Capacity addition during 2016-17

Capacity addition during 2017-2022

4. Future emission scenarios: Alternative pathways

Future low carbon scenarios: NDC Scenario

Installed capacity 2050 Generation 2050

Das 2019. Unpublished Ph D Thesis

Uptake of systemic policies and contribution of

renewable energy in selected Indian states

Policies to support Renewable EnergyMaharashtra

Gujarat Karnataka Rajasthan

Rebate on Municipal Taxes for promoting

renewable energy

√

Renewable Energy Re-purchase Obligation √ √ √ √

Facilitating land acquisition for projects

leading to

generation of renewable energy

√ √ √ √

Special Tariff for Renewable Energy, Feed-in

Tariff, Feed in Premium

√ √

Single Window System for Projects for

Renewable Energy Generation

√ √

Share of renewable in total power generation

(in %)

15.54 10.85 22.25 10.19

India: drivers of success and failure storiesIndia: drivers of success and failure storiesIndia: drivers of success and failure storiesIndia: drivers of success and failure stories

• National Biodiesel Mission of 2003

• New technology with Missing new routines and new regulators• Mobility sector: Intermediate transport

• National Mission of Biodiesel

• Enhanced Energy Efficiency National Mission 2008

• Pre conceived new technology with new routines and new regulators

• Policy, price, global partnership, trained manpower

• PAT: new market system, institutional innovationSource Roy et. al . 2017

How to operationalize

• “Technology is at least as important in reducing emissions as demographicchange and economic development” – IPCC (2014)

• Three major dimensions: capacity building; enabling environments; and mechanisms for technology transfer

• In its Intended Nationally Decided Contributions (INDCs) submitted toUNFCC India has committed to cut emission intensity of GDP by 30-35percent by 2030 from 2005 level.

• Thrust is on mobilizing finance, technology transfer and capacity building to achieve this target

Development of technology transfer framework in global context

COP Decision

COP 1 , Berlin- 1995 Decided to review at each COP the implementation of Article 4,

paragraphs 1(c) and 5, of the Convention as a separate agenda item

under “Matters relating to commitments”

COP 4, Buenos Aires-

1998

Established a consultative process to achieve agreement on a

technology transfer framework

COP 7, Marrakesh- 2001 Adopted the technology transfer framework

COP 13, Bali- 2007 Decision on the development and transfer of technologies under

the Subsidiary Body for Implementation

COP 14, Poznan-2008 Poznan strategic program on technology transfer adopted

Cop 16, Cancun- 2010 Established the Technology Transfer Mechanism

Thank you

Acknowledgement

Global Change Programme Research Team

Jadavpur University, India

http://juglobalchangeprogram.org/