decisionmaking

Robertson-Howard Consultants

Copyright © 2002 Robertson-Howard Consultants, Lincoln, NE 68504

Problem Solving

The acid test of an officer who aspires to high command is his ability to be able to grasp quickly the essentials of a military problem.

Montgomery

1



Problem Solving

• When should you use it?– When you prepare a briefing– When you write a paper– When you plan or execute training

• What is problem solving?– Rocket science– Magic

Why do senior managers seem to ask the key questions?

2



Problem Solving

1. Recognize & define the problem

2. Gather information relative to the problem

3. List possible solutions

4. Determine the Criteria

5. Test possible solutions

6. Analyze Test results

7. Select the best solution

3



Problem Solving

• Recognize you have a problem• Select and implement a solution• Re-recognize the problem• Select another solution• Implement solution• Get a new job

Informal method

4



Problem Solving

• Recognize & define the problem• Gather information• List possible solutions• List the Criteria used to evaluation• Test solutions• Analyze Test results• Implement the solution

Formal method

PMToolbox

5



What is a Problem?

• Professional– Scheme of maneuver– Equipment acquisition– Training plan

• Personal– New vehicle purchase– Next assignment– Grad school choice

6



A Problem is . . .

• The difference between– What is happening and– What you want to happen

• Defined as – Well structured– Ill structured– Medium structured

A problem is an unsettled question raised for inquiry, consideration, or solution

7



Problem Structure

• Well-structured– All info is available– The problem is well-defined– A solution technique is available – There is a correct & verifiable answer

• Ill structured– Problem difficult or impossible to define– Answer not verifiable

8



Medium Structure

• Some information is available

• Problem is partially defined

• Solved by combination of– creative and critical thinking– routine problem solving methods

Most problems we face are of medium structure

9



Time & Experience

• High experience and time

• Experience may lead to use of “old” solution

• No benefit to a quick solution

Time

Experience

III

III IV

Quadrant I

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Time & Experience

• High time, low experience

• Systematic process can counter low experience

• Group problem solving can help

Time

Experience

III

III IV

Quadrant II

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Time & Experience

• Low time & experience

• Most likely situation for errors in judgment

• Seek outside expertise

• Develop at least two solutions

• Check for errors

Time

Experience

III

III IV

Quadrant III

12



Time & Experience

• High experience, low time

• Mental screen of what “worked before”

• Watch out for tendency to go with gut reaction

• Consider at least two courses of action

Time

Experience

III

III IV

Quadrant IV

13



Sources of Problems

• Superiors

• Subordinates

• Corporate headquarters

• New regulations and SOPs

• Equipment and personnel changes

• Operational and personal situations

14



Recognize and Define the Problem

• Symptoms vs Problems

– Headaches

– Wet basement

• Solving symptoms may not solve the problem

• Successful problem solvers

– Identify obstacles & symptoms

– Focus on the goal & end-state

15



Recognize and Define the Problem

• Compare problem situation to the desired outcome (goal/end state)

• Define the problem boundaries–Who is affected?–What is affected?–When did it occur?–Where is the problem?–Why did it occur?

• Consider how to eliminate obstacles

• Write a tentative problem statement

16



Problem ID Aids• Use “How To” questions

–How to keep the basement dry–How to increase PT or gunnery scores

• Ask someone else to define the problem–Different point of view–Sanity check of your work–Use of another’s experience

17



Problem ID Aids• Use “visual centering”

– Chart pack– Chalk board– Terrain model

• Brainstorm– Don’t judge--listen– Record suggestions

• Don’t rush– Use all the steps– Do it right the first time

18



Gather Information

• Facts– Verifiable information– Observed events

• Assumptions– Suppositions about truth– Possibly true, but unverifiable– Only needed if they affect solution

20



Gather Information• Criteria

– Define your solution’s limits– Determine which solution is best

• Screening Criteria– Must be met– Always Go/No Go; required absolutes

• Evaluation Criteria– Compare possible solutions

– “Like to have” vs “must have”

21



Gather Information

• Definitions– Needed with unfamiliar words/terms– Consider your audience

• Opinions– Personal judgments– Limited value, but must be considered

22



Sources of Information• Boss• Subordinates• Other units• Peers• Regulations• Publications• After Action

Reviews• Company files

23



Barriers to Creativity

• Habit– The old way– The safe way

• Fear– ”Only a crazy fool. . .”– New guys should

listen--not suggest

• Inertia– Laziness– If it’s not broken . . .

• Prejudice– Not developed here

(Colt vs Berretta)– Pride of authorship

24



Sources of Solutions

• Brainstorming– No judging– Record comments – Aim for quantity; hitchhike ideas

• Nominal group– Members write ideas privately– Ideas are posted & discussed– Members vote by secret ballot

25



Resources & Values

• Resources– Time– Money– People– Supplies– Information– Equipment– Space

• Values– Appearance– Image– Ethics– Acceptance– Attitude

26



Raw Data MatrixCar $K Doors Trans Color

Corvette 30 Two Manual Red

T-bird 16 Two Auto Silver

Civic 12 Four Manual Gray

Olds 16 Four Auto Blue

Lincoln 27.5 Four Auto Black

27



Group vs. Individual

•Expertise•Acceptance•Time•Structure•Collective Genius

28



Leading, Caring, .... exercise

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Cautions

• Information sharing– Meetings & IPRs– What you know is

important

• Error checking• Scoping

– Visualize the possible solution

– Use rough estimation

• Time– Use reverse planning

– Stick to the schedule

– Plan time for two COAs

• Leader– Review progress

– Fix time schedule

– Identify new problems

– Keep eyes above weeds

30



GroupThink• Strong groups

– Members tend to think alike

– Feel good about decisions the group favors

• Leaders must accept objections

• Devil’s advocate can argue other position

31

decisionmaking

Documents

available problem

military problem

low experience group

solution implement solution

solution technique

solution re

best solution

time experience high