decision tools to evaluate vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to climate change the water...
TRANSCRIPT
Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change
The Water Resource Sector
Outline
Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to water resources
Viewing water resources from a ‘services’ perspective
Hydrologic implications of climate change for water resources
Tools/models WEAP model presentation Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
Effective V&A Assessments
Defining V&A assessment Often V&A focuses on analysis over
assessment Why? Because the focus is on biophysical
impacts, e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, forests, etc.
Assessment is an integrating process requiring the interface of physical and social science and public policy
Effective V&A Assessments (continued)
General questions What is the assessment trying to influence? How can the science/policy interface be
most effective? How can the participants be most effective in
the process? General problems
Participants bring differing objectives/ expertise
These differences often lead to dissention/ differing opinions – this is where MCA can help in prioritization
Effective V&A Assessments (continued)
To be valuable, the assessment process requires Relevancy Credibility Legitimacy Consistent participation
An interdisciplinary process The assessment process often requires a tool The tool is usually a model or suite of models These models serve as the interface This interface is a bridge for dialogue between
scientists and policy makers
Water quantityWater quality
Seasonality of flowRegulation
Water for agriculture
Domestic water
Water for industry
Water for nature
Water for recreation
The Water Resource SectorWater’s “Trade-Off” Landscape
Water Resources from a Services Perspective
Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or streamflow
But an evaluation of the potential impacts of global warming on the goods and services provided by freshwater systems
Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use
Recre-
ation, aesth. beauty
Trans-port
Power gener.
Nutr. cycl-ing
Regen. of soil fertility
Water for ag., urban, indust.
Har-vest. biota
Flood/
drought
mitig.
Water purifi-
cation
Ero-sion
con-trol
Habitat/
biodi-versity
Bay
Delta
Lower Rivers
Upper Rivers
Recre-
ation, aesth. beauty
Trans-port
Power gener.
Nutr. cycl-ing
Regen. of soil fertility
Water for ag., urban, indust.
Har-vest. biota
Flood/
drought
mitig.
Water purifi-
cation
Ero-sion
con-trol
Habitat/
biodi-versity
Bay
Delta
Lower Rivers
Upper Rivers
Freshwater Ecosystem Services
Water Resources – A Critical V&A Sector
Critical to both managed and natural systems
Human activity influences both systems
Natural Systems
External Pressure
State of System
Little Control of processes
ManagedSystemsExternal
Pressure Product, good or service
Process Control
Example: Agriculture Example: Wetlands
services
Hydrologic ‘External Pressures’ related to Climate Change
Precipitation amount Global average increase Marked regional differences
Precipitation frequency and intensity Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al.,
2003) Evaporation and transpiration
Increase total evaporation Regional complexities due to
plant/atmosphere interactions
Specific Pressures: Retreating Himalayan glaciers
Forecasts of 25% losses globally by 2050; 50% by 2100
Specific Pressures: Retreating Himalayan glaciers
Meltwaters are depended upon during dry season to sustain low flow periods
Probable diminished volume and earlier timing of flows
Has implications for hydropower production, agricultural demands, and river and riparian quality and ecosystem needs
Specific Pressures: Sea level rise
Sea level could rise by as much as 50 cm by 2100 (IPCC, 2001)
For islands, coasts:
sea level rise, inundation of coast lines, and decreasing infiltration of precipitation will lead to shrinking groundwater lenses
Displacement of people will cause new localized stresses on water resource allocation
water tables may rise to land surface, causing full evapotranspiration and diminished water quality (Burns 2000)
Specific Pressures: Extreme weather
Typhoons and cyclones could increase by 50-60% (NASA, 2001), with intensities increasing by 10-20% (IPCC 2001).
Possible doubling of frequency of 100 mm/day rainfall events and 15-18% increase in rainfall intensity over large areas of the Pacific (IPCC 2001).
This may lead to greater soil erosion and runoff, and less water available for infiltration and evapotranspiration
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
Construction/modification of physical infrastructure Canal linings Closed conduits instead of open channels Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system Reservoirs/hydro-plants/delivery systems Raising dam wall height Increasing canal size Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage Inter-basin water transfers
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources (continued)
Adaptive management of existing water supply systems Change operating rules Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply Physically integrate reservoir operation
system Coordinate supply/demand Indigenous options
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources (continued)
Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology Domestic
Municipal and in-home re-use of water Leak repair Rainwater collection for non-potable uses Low-flow appliances Dual-supply systems (potable and nonpotable)
Agriculture Irrigation timing and efficiency Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent High value/low water use crops Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application
irrigation systems Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain
water
Examples of Adaptation – Water Supply (continued)
Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology (continued)
Industry Water re-use and recycling Closed cycle and/or air cooling More efficient hydropower turbines Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers
Energy (hydropower) Reservoir re-operation Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat) Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations Low head run of the river hydropower Market/price-driven transfers to other activities Using water price to shift water use between sectors
Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies
What tools are available to understand both water resource vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation strategies?
How can stakeholders be engaged in these processes?
Types of Water Resources Models
Hydraulic: biophysical process models describing streamflow, flooding
Hydrology: rainfall/runoff processes
Planning: water resource systems models
Which model?...What questions are you trying to answer?
Hydraulic Model
Critical questions How fast, deep is river flowing How do changes to flow and channel morphology
impact sediment transport and services provided (fish habitats, recreation, etc).
Hydrology Model
Critical questions How does rainfall on a catchment translate into flow
in a river? What pathways does water follow as it moves
through a catchment? How does movement along these pathways impact
the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of river flows, as well as water quality?
Planning Model Critical questions
How should water be allocated to various uses in time of shortage?
How can these operations be constrained to protect the services provided by the river?
How should infrastructure in the system (e.g., dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve maximum benefit (economic, social, ecological)?
How will allocation, operations, and operating constraints change if new management strategies are introduced into the system?
Operational and hydraulic HEC
HEC-HMS – event-based rainfall-runoff (provides input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation “mapping”)
HEC-RAS – one-dimensional steady and unsteady flow
HEC-ResSim – reservoir operation modeling
WaterWare RiverWare MIKE11Delft3d
Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models
Hydraulic Water Management Model
HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes
Sub-daily rainfall-runoff processes of small catchments
Free, download from web
Tools to Use for the Assessment: Referenced Water Models (continued)
Planning/ hydrology
WEAP21 Aquarius SWAT IRAS (Interactive
River and Aquifer Simulation)
RIBASIM MIKE 21 and
BASIN
Current Focus – Planning and Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change
Selected planning/hydrology models: can be deployed on PC, extensive documentation, ease of use, free (or free to developing nations)… Aquarius SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning)
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
AQUARIS advantage: Has economic efficiency criterion requiring the reallocation of stream flows until the net marginal return in all water uses is equal
Cannot be climatically driven – flows prescribed by user
Economic focus
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (continued)
SWAT advantage:
Can predict effect of management decisions on water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields on ungauged river basins. Considers complex water quality constituents.
Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily timestep
Focuses on supply side of water balance
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models (continued)
WEAP21 advantage: Seamlessly integrates watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management
Can be climatically driven Based on holistic approach
of integrated water resources management (IWRM) – supply and demand
IWRM Principles
Freshwater is finite and has economic and social value in its competing uses
Water is essential to sustain life and safe water should be accessible to all
Water development and management should be participatory, involving users, planners, policy makers at all levels and recognize that women in particular play a central role in water provision for their families.
1992 International Conference on Water and Environment, Dublin, Ireland
IWRM Principles
Promotes the coordinated development and management of land, water and related resources to maximize social and economic welfare in equitable way without comprising sustainability
Cross-sectoral integration in water policy development
Global Water Partnership
IWRM Resources
Global Water Partnership at: www.gwp.forum.org
Overview WEAP21
Hydrology and planningPlanning (water distribution) examples and exercisesAdding hydrology to the modelUser interfaceScaleData requirements and resourcesCalibration and validationResultsScenariosLicensing and registration
You can create multiple scenarios and use this box to switch between them.
Use the View bar to switch between your analysis and its results.
Data are organized in a tree structure that you edit by right-clicking here.
Your data are shown here as either a graph or a table.
Enter or edit your data by typing it here.
A Simple System with WEAP21
60
40
An Infrastructure Constraint
70
3010 Unmet
A Regulatory Constraint
70
3010 Unmet
IFR Met
0
40
60
10 unmet
Different Priorities
For example, the demands of large farmers (70 units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units) may be Priority 1 in another
30
10
90
0
Different Preferences
For example, a center pivot operator may prefer to take water from a tributary because of lower pumping costs
WEAP and Planning
Provides a common framework for transparently organizing water resource data at any scale desired – local watershed, regional or transboundary river basin
Scenarios can be easily developed to explore possible water futures
Implications of various policies can be evaluated
WEAP Capabilities
Can doHigh level planning at local and regional scalesDemand managementWater allocationInfrastructure evaluation
Cannot doSub-daily operationsOptimization of supply and demand (e.g. cost minimizations or social welfare maximization)
Uses of WEAP
Policy Research Alternative Allocations Climate Change Land Use Change Infrastructure Planning
Capacity Building Negotiation Stakeholder Engagement
WEAP is Scenario-driven
The scenario editor readily accommodates analysis of: Climate change scenarios and assumptions Future demand assumptions Future watershed development assumptions
Futures and Scenarios: Why? Scenarios: a systematic way of thinking about
the future To gain a better understanding of the possible
implications of decisions (or non-decisions across scales and time
To support decision-making
Driving Forces
Demographic
•More people•Urbanization•Older
Economic
•Growing integration of global economy
Social
•Increasing inequality•Persistent poverty
Cultural•Spread of values of consumerism and individualism
•Nationalist and religious reaction
Technological
•Computer and information technology•Biotechnology•Miniaturization
Environmental/Climatic
•Increasing global stress
•Local degradation
•Some remediation in richer countries
Governance•Global institutions
•Democratic government•Role for civil society in decision-making
Who are the Actors?
Government Private sector Civil society Public
Rich farmers Poor farmers Urban users Environmentalists Or?
Consider Sources of Uncertainty
Ignorance
Understanding is limited
Surprise
The unexpected and the novel can alter directions
Volition
Human choice matters
Forecast and Backcast
?
?
Where is society going? forecast
backcast Where do we want to go? How do we get there?
Study DefinitionSpatia l Boundary System C om ponentsT im e H orizon N etwork C onfiguration
EvaluationW ater Suffic iency Ecosystem R equirem entsPollu tant Loadings Sensitiv ity Analysis
Current AccountsD em and Pollu tant G enerationR eservoir C haracteristics R esources and SuppliesR iver S im ulation W astewater T reatm ent
ScenariosD em ographic and Econom ic Activ ityPatterns of W ater U se, Pollu tion G enerationW ater System InfrastructureH ydropowerA llocation, P ric ing and Environm ental PolicyC om ponent C ostsH ydrology
WEAP21 Program Structure
You can click and drag elements of the water system from the legend onto the schematic directly.
Use the menu to do standard functions such as creating new areas and saving.
Your can zoom your schematic in or out by sliding the bar here.
GIS layers can be added here.
Use the View bar to switch between your data and its results.
The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface
Languages:
Interface Only
English
French
Chinese
Spanish
You can create multiple scenarios and use this box to switch between them.
Use the View bar to switch between your analysis and its results.
Data are organized in a tree structure that you edit by right-clicking here.
Your data are shown here as either a graph or a table.
Enter or edit your data by typing it here.
Data Requirements
WEAP allows the user to determine the level of complexity desired according to the questions that need to be
addressed the availability of data
From the simple…
To the complex….
Data Requirements: Supply
User-prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed time series) Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs River network (connectivity)
Alternative supply via physical hydrology (let the watershed generate riverflow) Watershed attributes
Area, land cover . . . Climate
Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and relative humidity
Letting Climate Drive Hydrology
The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module
Smax
Rd z1
Interflow = f(z1,ks, 1-f)
Percolation = f(z1,ks,f)
Baseflow = f(z2,drainage_rate)
Et= f(z1,kc, , PET)
Pe = f(P, Snow Accum, Melt rate)
Plant Canopy
P
z2
L
u
Surface Runoff =f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)
Sw
Dw
One 2-Bucket Model per Land Class
Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical Framework in
WEAP21
Data Requirements: Demand
Water demand data: multi-sectoral Municipal and industrial demand
Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism, etc.)
Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita, use/socioeconomic group)
Agricultural demands Aggregated by area (# hectares, annual water-
use/hectare) Disaggregated by crop water requirements
Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)
Data Requirements (continued)
Agriculture
Industry
Municipal
CottonRiceWheat...
Electric PowerPetroleumPaper...
South CityWest City...
Irrigation...
CoolingProcessingOthers
Single FamilyMulti-family...
FurrowSprinklerDrip
StandardEfficient...
KitchenBathingWasherToilet...
SECTOR SUBSECTOR END-USE DEVICE
Example Data Resources
Indigenous knowledge!
Climatewww.apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu
(Asia Pacific Data Research Center) Hydrology
www.grdc.bafg.de (Global Runoff Data Center)
GIS www.asian.gu.edu/au
(Asian Spatial Information and Analysis Network)
General Resourceswww.weap21.org
Calibration and Validation
Model evaluation criteria Flows along mainstem and tributaries Reservoir storage and release Water diversions from other basins Agricultural water demand and delivery Municipal and industrial water demands and
deliveries Groundwater storage trends and levels
Modeling Streamflow
Looking at Results
Select results to be viewed, including which scenario here.
Change units and subcategories of results, and change the style of the graph here.
Select values for the yhere.
What next?
How can output from WEAP, or any water resource model for that matter, be organized and analyzed to select adaptation strategies?...
Stakeholder-driven multi-criteria analysis can help…
Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)
Any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where the alternatives can accomplish several objectives
Is particularly useful to situations where a single criterion would fall short, and allows decision-makers to address a range of relevant factors
MCA: Scope
All sectors, regions, livelihoods, ecosystems, etc.
Has been used extensively in water resources planning, coastal zone management, agricultural development, and stakeholder processes
MCA: Key Outputs
A single preferred option, or…
A short list of preferred options, or…
A characterization of acceptable and unacceptable possiblities
MCA: Key Inputs
Evaluation criteria
Relevant metrics for those criteria
MCA–WEAP: Motivation
Develop an interactive computer tool to facilitate multi-criteria assessment for water resource options in a stakeholder context
Designed specifically to be used in conjunction with outputs from the WEAP model and stakeholder processes to develop, weight and apply evaluation criteria to adaptation options
MCA–WEAP: History
MCA-WEAP is a new Excel macros-based model, built off of NAPAssess, a tool developed by SEI for use by Sudan and Yemen in their NAPA processes
Now reshaped to focus exclusively on adaptation options around water – used so far in Netherlands Climate Assistance Program (NCAP) studies
ensure adequate stakeholder representation Identify CC adaptation strategies establish country-driven criteria to evaluate and prioritize Make concensus-based recommendations for adaptation
initiatives
Open source, and still a BETA version!
MCA–WEAP: Capabilities
Streamlines the multi-criteria analysis process by: Housing all relevant project information on a
single platform
Supporting a transparent, user-friendly process for developing, weighting, and applying evaluation criteria
Producing a ranked set of alternatives
MCA–WEAP: Steps
Assess vulnerability priorities Identify key stakeholders Identify potential adaptation strategies Develop stakeholder-driven evaluation
criteria to determine trade-offs Assign weights to criteria Prioritize adaptation options for best meeting
the needs of those most vulnerable
Licensing WEAP
Go to www.weap21.org and register for a new license (free for government, university, and non-profit organizations in developing countries)
Register WEAP under Help menu and select “Register WEAP”