decision to pick - presentation from the 10th australian mango conference

Decision to PickProcess and Tools

Mark Loeffen

© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015

Why?

and we grow a highly variable crop

Because customers need aconsistently good

eating experience …


Overview• Background• Decision to Pick Process• Decision Support Tools• Wrap up


People, Process, Tools

People (Enablement)

Process (Methodology)

Tools (Insight)

• Decision Support Toolsprovide insight into crop maturity status and can predict DTP dates

• Standard operating procedures are usedto collect the data

• People operate theprocesses and the tools


Variability• Main sources of variability in fruit maturity derive from:

• the location of the fruit within each tree• Ferguson & Triggs (1990) “… there was much greater variability

within a tree than between trees”• Ferguson, I.B. & Triggs, C.M. (1990) Sampling factors affecting

the use of mineral analysis of apple fruit for the prediction of bitter pit. New Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science. Vol. 18: 147-152.

• Reitz & Sites, 1948• Reitz, H.J. & Sites J.W. (1948) Relation between position on

tree and analysis of citrus fruit with special reference to sampling and meeting internal grades. Proc ser. Soc. hort. Sci. 1950 Vol. 55 pp. 73-1

• variability between trees from differences in tree age, architecture, soil, water, agronomy, light interception, etc.


Decision Support Systems• Fruit quality Decision Support Systems we have developed

that are in consistent commercial use:• Zespri

• Gold kiwifruit• Harvest date prediction (flesh colour) since 2007, Firmness prediction since

2008, Harvest window from 2010, Bimodality from 2014• Green Kiwifruit

• Inventory management in 2011 & 2012, Transport temperature from 2014

• Harvest Fresh Fruits• Mango

• Decision to Pick since 2011

• Delytics Platform• Summerfruit, apples & cherries

• Crop status since 2013


Decision to Pick Process• Define areas of consistent maturity (block?)

• Plus maturity zones?

• Develop a sample collection protocol • Aim is to take a representative sample from each block• In order to quantify variability in maturity within each block• We have experience in this area

• Determine the sample size • Number of fruit (more is better)

• Determine the sampling frequency• Weekly as you approach maturity and beyond

• Fruit property measurements and methods• Non-destructive (NIR gun)?

• Decision Support Tools


Harvest specifications• Each measurement will have its own specification

• Dry Matter, Flesh Colour, Skin Colour, Firmness, Shape, etc.

• Determine what percentage of fruit must meet the specification?

• Your specifications may be higher than the industry minimum standard


What to measure? Options include

• Visual appeal• Skin colour• Flesh colour• Defects• Firmness• Fruit weight and / or size

• Taste• Dry matter• Brix?• Acid?


Typical NIR OutputLot sample sampleTime lat long dm fc

1 1 01:00.0 0 0 10.12374 2.1846281 2 01:00.0 0 0 10.95018 1.7993261 3 01:00.0 0 0 13.22173 3.3659411 4 02:00.0 0 0 12.48054 3.7552021 5 02:00.0 0 0 10.4524 1.5219141 6 03:00.0 0 0 10.88187 2.7172121 7 03:00.0 0 0 11.02853 2.0240261 8 03:00.0 0 0 11.0932 1.9674471 9 03:00.0 0 0 14.52913 4.5072171 10 03:00.0 0 0 11.73714 2.3942871 11 07:00.0 0 0 13.44219 4.1722251 12 07:00.0 0 0 13.23002 4.1803321 13 07:00.0 0 0 14.49739 4.118111 14 08:00.0 0 0 13.43534 3.908661 15 08:00.0 0 0 13.49014 3.5818631 16 08:00.0 0 0 13.27886 2.3413681 17 09:00.0 0 0 12.37506 2.0636971 18 09:00.0 0 0 13.97579 3.505971 19 09:00.0 0 0 12.29559 3.3021851 20 09:00.0 0 0 12.65907 1.9418

• Lists all data collected

• Can be loaded into a spreadsheet

• Decision support tools provide greater insight


Decision Support ToolsAfter you have taken your measurements, what can you do with the data?Some examples …


Decision Support Features

Crop Status• What is the crop

maturity status in relation to our harvest criteria?

• How is the crop in each block progressing?

• How do our farms compare?

Crop Prediction• When could we be

ready to harvest each block?

• What order will we harvest our farms / blocks?


Dry Matter statusImmediately visualise the percentage of crop meeting specification - for select picks


Dry Matter seriesVisualise the percentage of crop meeting specification over time – DM rising


DM time seriesA time series view of DM status over time


DM time series + modelA DM model fitted to 23 Sep sample to predict harvest date - when the Yellow curve meets Red


Flesh Colour time series + model

A flesh colour model to predict harvest date - when the Yellow curve meets Red


Acceptance CurvesShows the percentage of fruit in each sample meeting the DM and FC specifications over time


GPS location of fruit sampledFrom the NIR gun – a useful check on your sampling process


DM vs. FCComparison chart for two measures


Biphase weight data + model

Very useful to understand the range of fruit sizes before harvest


Avg. DM Models for all farmsThe maturity status of each Farm Block - for determining harvest sequence?


DM Variability by FarmCrop variability is important – samples from four farms showing some with high variability


Summary – Decision to Pick• Define:

• Maturity areas (zones)• Sampling procedure, Sample Size & Sampling frequency• Measurements & measurement methods

• E.g. Dry Matter (NIR?)• Harvest Specifications

• Implement maturity monitoring programme• Use Decision Support Tools to gain insight into your

maturity data and aid decision making


HFF benefits• Using decision support tools since

2011• Kieren Brown, Chief Operating Officer

of HFF:• It’s extremely useful to the point where

the orchard managers probably couldn’t imagine doing the pre-harvest pick plans without it

• The estimated gains in the first season using the tools were approximately 2% of crop value, and the benefits are ongoing

• The return on investment was very quick


Acknowledgements• Kieren Brown, Harvest Fresh Fruits• Horticulture Australia Ltd (Horticulture Innovation

Australia)

Thank you

www.delytics.com

http://www.delytics.com/

decision to pick - presentation from the 10th australian mango conference

Science

mark loeffen associates

tools mark loeffen

fruit maturity

tools decision support

process decision support

percentage of fruit

analysis of citrus fruit

sample size number of