decision support, nacp and “usable” carbon science

Decision Support, NACP and “Usable” Decision Support, NACP and “Usable” Carbon ScienceCarbon Science

Lisa Dilling

Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado/CIRES,

Boulder, CO USA

MotivationMotivation

NACP explicitly seeks scientific understanding to NACP explicitly seeks scientific understanding to “…meet societal concerns and to provide tools “…meet societal concerns and to provide tools to policy makers” (Wofsy and Harriss, 2002); to policy makers” (Wofsy and Harriss, 2002); and to provide “decision support” (Denning et and to provide “decision support” (Denning et al. 2005)al. 2005)

Providing useful knowledge is not a givenProviding useful knowledge is not a given NACP offers a fertile test-bed and opportunityNACP offers a fertile test-bed and opportunity To be successful at providing useful information To be successful at providing useful information

to decision-makers requires research and a to decision-makers requires research and a deliberate approachdeliberate approach

An Opportunity?An Opportunity?

Inadvertent carbon management• Existing for millennia• Will continue to dominate C

management• Depends on land type, land use,

actors, markets, policy

Deliberate carbon management• Increasing interest in past 10 yrs• Small scale• Pilot projects• Voluntary efforts

Carbon Governance?• Both deliberate and

inadvertent• Rules TBD• Effective across scales• Role of public policy• Role of markets

FUTURE ??

Potential Carbon Decision MakersPotential Carbon Decision Makers

A wide array of potential A wide array of potential users at a variety of users at a variety of scales:scales:

Land users (agriculture, Land users (agriculture, forestry, urban forestry, urban development)development)

Energy providers (utilities, Energy providers (utilities, fuel producers)fuel producers)

Policy makers (local, state, Policy makers (local, state, federal)federal)

Specialized sectors (carbon Specialized sectors (carbon traders, NGOs)traders, NGOs)

So what do we know So what do we know about providing science about providing science

that is useful for that is useful for decision making?decision making?

Case example: ENSO climate Case example: ENSO climate forecastingforecasting

What have we learned so far?What have we learned so far?

Miles et al. 2006 (PNAS): “every empirical Miles et al. 2006 (PNAS): “every empirical study conducted to date has shown that study conducted to date has shown that climate forecasts are not used to their full climate forecasts are not used to their full potential” potential”

True in both wealthy and poor nations…True in both wealthy and poor nations…

Developing world cases:Developing world cases:Glantz, 1977, Sahel, Western AfricaGlantz, 1977, Sahel, Western AfricaBlench 1999, Southern AfricaBlench 1999, Southern AfricaEakin 2000, MexicoEakin 2000, MexicoAgrawala et al. 2001Agrawala et al. 2001Agrawala and Broad 2002, PeruAgrawala and Broad 2002, PeruPatt and Gwata 2002, Zimbabwe Patt and Gwata 2002, Zimbabwe Tarhule and Lamb 2003, SahelTarhule and Lamb 2003, SahelIngham et al. 2002, Burkina FasoIngham et al. 2002, Burkina Faso

Developed worldDeveloped world

Sonka et al. 1992 U.S. agribusinessSonka et al. 1992 U.S. agribusiness Pulwarty and Redmond 1997, U.S. Pacific Pulwarty and Redmond 1997, U.S. Pacific

NorthwestNorthwest Changnon 2003 U.S. sectorsChangnon 2003 U.S. sectors Rayner et al. 2005 U.S. water managersRayner et al. 2005 U.S. water managers

And can be used, with unintended And can be used, with unintended consequencesconsequences

Glantz 1982, Yakima ValleyGlantz 1982, Yakima Valley Broad et al. 2002, PeruBroad et al. 2002, Peru Lemos 2003Lemos 2003

Photo by Glantz

Ceara, Brazil

Finally, of course some successesFinally, of course some successes

Jagtap et al. 2002, Florida, U.S.Jagtap et al. 2002, Florida, U.S. Power et al. 2005, Western AustraliaPower et al. 2005, Western Australia Lemos and Morehouse 2005, Southwest Lemos and Morehouse 2005, Southwest

U.S.U.S. Cash et al. 2006, Pacific IslandsCash et al. 2006, Pacific Islands Miles et al. 2006, Pacific NW, U.S. Miles et al. 2006, Pacific NW, U.S.

PEAC

What does it take for science to be used in What does it take for science to be used in decision making?decision making?

Relevant to a decision context/Makes a difference Relevant to a decision context/Makes a difference to the outcometo the outcome

There are viable options for the particular There are viable options for the particular decision that are sensitive to the informationdecision that are sensitive to the information

Compatible with existing values, norms and Compatible with existing values, norms and practicespractices

AccessibleAccessible CredibleCredible TrustworthyTrustworthy Reliable/accurate/appropriate scale and timingReliable/accurate/appropriate scale and timing

So what does this imply for the process used to create science useful for decision

making?

Avoid the “loading dock” approach!!Cash et al. 2006

Characterizing the need for information:Characterizing the need for information:

What can we learn about decision What can we learn about decision makers’ needs, concerns and interests– makers’ needs, concerns and interests– what drives their decision-making?what drives their decision-making?

What sources of information do they What sources of information do they typically rely on? Why do they trust typically rely on? Why do they trust them?them?

How do their activities currently affect How do their activities currently affect the carbon balance and why?the carbon balance and why?

How does the scale of information How does the scale of information needed match up to the scale of needed match up to the scale of information available?information available?

Usable science

Inter-disciplinarity

Interactionswithstakeholders

Iterativity

Lemos and Morehouse 2005

Suggestions for making carbon (and NACP) science Suggestions for making carbon (and NACP) science more usable (from SOCCR/SAP 2.2):more usable (from SOCCR/SAP 2.2):

Identify categories of decision makers (DMs) for Identify categories of decision makers (DMs) for whom carbon information is a relevant issue whom carbon information is a relevant issue (problem orientation)(problem orientation)

Work directly with DMs to understand context of Work directly with DMs to understand context of their decisions and evaluate carbon impacts of their decisions and evaluate carbon impacts of actions in these contexts (two way, ongoing)actions in these contexts (two way, ongoing)

Encourage experimentation with new approaches to Encourage experimentation with new approaches to make NACP science more credible and relevant to make NACP science more credible and relevant to carbon managerscarbon managers

Involve multiple disciplinesInvolve multiple disciplines Create appropriate feedbacks and accountability so Create appropriate feedbacks and accountability so

that the NACP program and priorities are responsive that the NACP program and priorities are responsive to needsto needs

New mechanisms and institutional arrangements New mechanisms and institutional arrangements may be necessary to facilitate meeting user needsmay be necessary to facilitate meeting user needs

Co-evolve this component as part of the NACP, not Co-evolve this component as part of the NACP, not an afterthoughtan afterthought

The decision context for carbon The decision context for carbon managementmanagement

No decision maker has solely a “climate No decision maker has solely a “climate protection” mandateprotection” mandate

No-one is managing for carbon exclusively:No-one is managing for carbon exclusively:– Multiple interests and incentivesMultiple interests and incentives– Multiple goalsMultiple goals– Multiple scalesMultiple scales

Private sector decisions dominated by “responses Private sector decisions dominated by “responses to economic opportunities as mediated by to economic opportunities as mediated by institutional factors” (Lambin et al. 2001)institutional factors” (Lambin et al. 2001)

Decision support at this meeting:Decision support at this meeting:

Breakout session: Breakout session: Carbon management Carbon management and decision support and decision support (Potter and Wynne)(Potter and Wynne)

Poster sessionPoster session– Birdsey et al.Birdsey et al.– Chen et al.Chen et al.– Liu et al.Liu et al.– Conant et al. Conant et al. – Doraiswamy et al.Doraiswamy et al.– Gower and AhlGower and Ahl– King and DillingKing and Dilling– Potter et al.Potter et al.– Walker et al.Walker et al.– Wynne et al.Wynne et al.

Next steps to consider?Next steps to consider?

Formation of an NACP Decision support Formation of an NACP Decision support working group?working group?– Recommended in NACP Science Implementation Recommended in NACP Science Implementation

Strategy (2005)Strategy (2005)– Critical mass of interest in topic (posters, Critical mass of interest in topic (posters,

discussion interest)discussion interest)– Need to provide focal point, connect existing Need to provide focal point, connect existing

activities and foster new onesactivities and foster new ones– Experience suggests we cannot wait until the Experience suggests we cannot wait until the

end of NACP to start thinking about decision end of NACP to start thinking about decision support…support…

ResourcesResources and References and References

NASA Applied Sciences program (Ed Sheffner)NASA Applied Sciences program (Ed Sheffner) ““Usable Carbon Science” workshop report online Usable Carbon Science” workshop report online

at: at: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/prhttp://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/rsd/workshop_report.pdfojects/rsd/workshop_report.pdf

NACP Science Implementation Strategy (Question NACP Science Implementation Strategy (Question 4, decision support) online at:4, decision support) online at:http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/PDF/NACP-SIS-final-july0http://www.carboncyclescience.gov/PDF/NACP-SIS-final-july05.pdf5.pdf

SOCCR/SAP 2.2 Chapter 5 online at:SOCCR/SAP 2.2 Chapter 5 online at:http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/public-rehttp://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/public-review-draft/SOCCR_Chapter05.pdfview-draft/SOCCR_Chapter05.pdf

Dilling 2007 Environmental Science and Policy:1-4; Dilling 2007 Environmental Science and Policy:1-4; 48-6148-61

Dilling 2007 Global Environmental Politics: in pressDilling 2007 Global Environmental Politics: in press

Thank you!Thank you!

For more information:For more information:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/

[email protected]@cires.colorado.edu

decision support, nacp and “usable” carbon science

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