Decision SupportandArtificial Intelligence

Jack G. ZhengMay 21st 2008

MIS Chapter 4

2

Overview

Decision supportCan computers help people to make

decisions?

Artificial intelligenceCan computers be like human to make

decisions?

Decision Support Systems

4

Types of Decision

Structured decision There are specific criteria to judge and the answer is certain Example

• What final letter grade should I give to you?

Non-structured decision Criteria are not explicit, or no criteria at all Example

• How much database material should I cover in CIS2010?

Most decisions involves both parts How do I evaluate students performance in the class?

5

Decision Support Systems

Decision Support System (DSS) is a type of information system designed specifically to help people make decisions

6

DSS Components

7

DSS Components (2)

Data managementStoring and maintaining data

• spreadsheet (data file)• database• data warehouse

User interface (UI) managementNice forms to get user inputVarious visualizations of analysis output

• Reports, tables, charts, graphs

8

DSS Components (3)

Models: transforming data to decision related information

A model is a predefined pattern to process data Calculation: what-if models, goal seeking models Statistical models Optimization Comparison Classification Prediction …

9

DSS Types

Model driven Data driven Visualization driven GDSS (Group DSS) GIS (Geographic Information Systems)

SDSS (Spatial DSS)

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Geographic Information Systems

GIS is designed specifically to work with spatial information to enhance decision making

In GIS, various kind of data are visualized with geographical data (maps) Is GIS just a dynamic map system? Most data can be related to geography

• Population• Sales• Weather• Traffic• Crime• …

11

How Does GIS Work?

GIS visualizes data as layers

Attribute data

Spatial data

Output

12

GIS Sample Applications

Dynamic mapsYahoo!Maps, Google Maps and MapQuestMS Streets and Trips

City and regional planningSan Francisco Enterprise GIS

• http://www.ci.sf.ca.us/site/gis_index.asp SimCity

• An excellent game using GIS

Artificial Intelligence

"His love is real. But he is not."

14

Artificial Intelligence

AI (or intelligent systems, knowledge systems) is the technology to let computers to imitate human thinking and behavior in some way

What is intelligence? What are intelligent behaviors?

15

Where is AI Used in Computing?

Speech recognition Natural language understanding Image/vision processing Robotics Data mining (business use)

16

Business AI Applications

Most widely used AI applications/techniques in the business worldExpert SystemsArtificial Neural Network (ANN)Genetic Algorithm (GA)

17

Expert Systems

A system that applies reasoning capabilities, as a human expert does, to reach solutionsAlso called rule-based system (RBS) or

knowledge-based system (KBS)A simple example

• http://www.aiinc.ca/demos/whale.html

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ES Components

An expert system, like any information system, consists of information, people and IT componentsDomain expertisePeople

• Domain expert• Knowledge engineer• User

IT component

Figure 4.9 on page 198

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Expert Systems in Action

1. Rules:a) If age < 25, then loan

risk is highb) If annual income <

50k, then loan risk is high

c) If loan risk is high, then refuse

4. Gives reason:Age<25 and income <50k high loan risk refuse

3. Pick rules•Data: age 21 Matching rule: rule a) Result: high risk•Data: income 40k Matching rule: rule b) Result: high risk•(New) Data: high risk Matching rule: rule c) Result: refuse loan

2. Incoming data:• Age: 21• Annual income: 40k

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Applications of ES

ES is good for diagnostic (what’s wrong?) and prescriptive (what to do?) problemsComputer or car diagnosticSee more demos on

http://www.expertise2go.com/

Help desk Customer service Technical support

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Evaluating Expert Systems

Benefits Reliable: reduce errors Consistent: provide consistency in decision making Reduce costs and improve productivity … (more in the book)

Difficulties and limitations Expertise is implicit: it’s difficult to explain Modeling process is complex The system cannot learn and adapt to new

situations; it has no common sense or judgment• Is it really intelligent?

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Good Resources

All about DSS http://dssresources.com/

GIS Internet Guide http://www.gis.com/

Herbert Simon http://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/0401/simon.html

IBM Deep Blue http://www.research.ibm.com/deepblue/

Intelligent Agents http://botspot.com/