Decision Analysis

A Presidential Example

Decision Analysis: using selection of U.S. Presidential Candidates as an example

• Decision Analysis is the pursuit of the best balanced choice using agreed criteria.

• The criteria consists of needs and wants.• The best balanced choice will meet all our needs

and have the highest score on our wants.• Risk Analysis/Probability of Failure can be used

to decide ties (and to debate BBC).• Opportunity Analysis/Probability of Success can

be used to decide ties (and to debate and promote BBC),

Do We Need the Best Balanced Choice to run for President of the U.S.A?

• Are there needs which must be met?• Are our wants important?• Is it easy to decide which candidate should be

President of the United States of America?• Wouldn’t it be nice to compare the candidates

for President of the U.S.A before deciding?

Then, let’s try decision analysis.

Electing a President of the U.S.A.What do we know about the needs and wants?

• Requirements of the U.S. Constitution must be met. These are needs.

• Candidate values, principles, knowledge, skills, experience and education requirements are wants somewhat unique to each citizen/voter.

Qualifications for the Office of Presidentof the United States of America

Age and Citizenship requirements - US Constitution, Article II, Section 1

No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States.

Term limit amendment - US Constitution, Amendment XXII, Section 1 – ratified February 27, 1951

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

Rationale for Natural Born Citizen• The purpose of the natural born citizen clause is to protect the nation from foreign

influence. Alexander Hamilton, a Convention delegate from New York, wrote in Federalist No. 68 about the care that must be taken in selecting the president: "Nothing was more to be desired than that every practicable obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue, and corruption. These most deadly adversaries of republican government might naturally have been expected to make their approaches from more than one quarter, but chiefly from the desire in foreign powers to gain an improper ascendant in our councils."[5] St. George Tucker, an early federal judge, wrote in 1803 that the natural born citizen clause is "a happy means of security against foreign influence", and that "The admission of foreigners into our councils, consequently, cannot be too much guarded against."[6] Delegate Charles Cotesworth Pinckney of South Carolina said in a speech before the Senate, "to insure experience and attachment to the country, they have determined that no man who is not a natural born citizen, or citizen at the adoption of the Constitution, of fourteen years residence, and thirty-five years of age, shall be eligible."[7]

• There was also a perception that a usurper from the European aristocracy could potentially immigrate and buy his way into power.[8] Constitutional scholar Akhil Amar points out that the laws of England specifically allowed a foreign-born head of state, and that this had been an unhappy experience for many who had immigrated to the United States.[8]

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural-born-citizen_clause

Decision Analysis: for selecting candidates for President of the United States of America

1. Needs from the U.S. Constitution Yes No(Does the candidate meet constitutional requirements?)

1. Natural born citizen1. Has experience and attachment to the U.S.A.

2. 35 Years of age1. Has maturity and experience

3. 14 years resident1. Has commitment and consistency

4. US President <6 years1. Has term/control limits

2. Wants from the U.S. Citizen/Voter Score 1 to 10(How well does the candidate meet my wants? 1 is low and 10 is high.)

5. Values and Principles6. Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities7. Experience8. Education

Questions about Decision Analysis• Why do this? Answer – we make better decisions and get better results when we

know what we need and want and go after it.• Why are the needs specific and the wants vague? Answer – Needs are often

predetermined. Wants are often decided.• Can needs be decided? Answer – Yes, but it is important to agree that it is a need

and decides yes or no.• Can needs and wants change? Answer – Yes.• Can I use DA to decide on a car, appliance, house, friend, mate, and any other

decision? Answer – Yes, and you’ll improve your skills .• Can everyone use DA? Answer – Yes.• Name one real advantage of DA. Answer – DA documents your decision and

reduces stress when there are many options. A good example is the number of candidates for President of the United States. Today, there are at least 16 viable Republican candidates for President 2016. I believe there are many more than 2 Democrats interested. Who is best for the U.S.A. and the world? How are you going to decide?

Potential Republican Candidates for President 2016

A collage of Democrat Candidates was not available at the time of posting

Risk Analysis/Probability of FailureAren’t some of these candidates potential problems?

Answer – Yes, there could be risk possibilities with each candidate.

What can I do? Answer – List the risk possibilities. Then, assign a number to each putting them in priority order. Assess the probability of failure for each candidate by assigning High, Medium, or Low for each risk.

Decide your best candidate(s). And if you are really

serious, determine how to prevent the problem, and plan contingency actions if the problem occurs.

Opportunity Analysis/Probability of Success

• Aren’t there opportunities for some of these candidates? Answer - Yes, there are opportunities for each candidate. List the opportunities. Prioritize. Assign High, Medium, Low probability for each candidate to each opportunity.

• Decide your best candidate(s). And if you are really serious, identify the trigger for each opportunity and plan promoting action if it occurs.

Decision Analysis: Conclusion

• Decision Analysis is an aptitude which reflects your attitude which determines your altitude.

• Consistently great decisions are the building blocks for growth and development for a better life and a better world.

• Practice makes perfect.

• For information about the author search:LinkedIn Profile for Mitchell W. Manning, Sr.

• For more from the author search:SlideShare for Mitchell W. Manning Sr.