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Decipherment of the Earliest TabletsAuthor(s): Denise Schmandt-BesseratReviewed work(s):Source: Science, New Series, Vol. 211, No. 4479 (Jan. 16, 1981), pp. 283-285Published by: American Association for the Advancement of ScienceStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1686148 .

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8/13/2019 Decipherment of the Earliest Tablets Denise Schmandt-Besserat

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crossarrn, is counterweighted, and hasprovedsturdy and stable in field studiesof corn (6).

We field-tested three prototype in-strumentsduring the 1979growingsea-son with satisfactory results. The testswere conducted on rangelands n westTexas and on alfalfa, corn, soybeans,and winter wheat at the Beltsville Agri-

cultural Research Center, Maryland.Thirty instruments were tested duringthe 1980 growing season at locationsthroughoutNorth America. Some of thecollected dataappear n Fig. 3.

In additionto the demonstrateduseswith vegetation, hand-heldradiometershave potential application in any fieldwhere radiometricmeasurements n the0.3- to 2.5-,umregion are of value. Thespectralrangeof the device described nthis reportmay be reset by changing n-terterence ilters or detectors.

COMPrON. TUCKER

WILLIAM. JONES,WILLIAM. KLEYGUNNAR. SUNDSTROMNASAlGoddard pace FlightCenter,Greenbelt,Maryland20771

References ndNotes

1. L. F. Silva, R. Hoffer, J. Cipra,Proc. SeventhInt. Symp.RemoteSensingEnviron.(1971), p.1509;R. W. Leamer,V. J. Myers, L. F. Silva,Rev. Sci. Instrum.44, 611 (1973);L. D. Miller,R. L. Pearson,C. J. Tucker,Photogramm.Eng.RemoteSensing 42, 569 (1976);E. J. Brack,R.W. Tinker,G. T. St. Amour,Can. Agric. Eng.19, 78 (1977);F. M. Zweibaum ndE. W.Chap-pelle,SPIE J. 180, 242(1979).

2. C. J. Tucker,Remote Sensing Environ. 6, 11(1977).

3. Photogramm.Eng. RemoteSensing 44,1369 ;978).

4. W. Collins, bid, p. 43.

5. M. Methy,Oecol. Plant. 12, 395 (1977) B. F.Robinson, M. E. Bauer, V. P. de Witt L. F.Vanderbilt,SPIE J. 196, 8 (1979),R. D. Jack-son, P. J. Pinter, S. B. Idso, R. J. Reginato,Appl. Opt. 18, 3730 1979);J. K. Aase and F. H.Siddoway,Agron. J. 72, 149 1980);B. N. Hol-ben and C. O. Justice,Photogramm.Eng. Re-moteSensing46, 1191 1980).

6. D. S. Kimes, B. L. Markham,C. J. Tucker, J.E. McMurtrey,NASAlGoddardSpace FlightCent.Tech.Memo., in press.

7. G. S. Birthand G. R. McVey,Agron.J. 60, 640(1968).

8. R. L. Pearson and L. D. Miller,Proc. EighthInt. Symp.RemoteSensing Environ.(1972), p.1357.

9. , C.J.Tucker,Appl.Opt. 16,416 ( 1976).10. Thedevice was soldby Exotech, Inc., Gaithers-

burg,Md.11. C. J. Tucker,unpublished ata12. B. N. Holbenand C. J. Tucker,Photogramm.

Eng. RemoteSensing, in press.13. C. J.Tucker,J. H. Elgin,J. E. McMurtrey,C. J.

Fan,Remote SensingEnviron.8, 237(1979);C.J. Tucker,J. H. Elgin, J. E. McMurtrey, hoto-gramm.Eng. Remote Sensing 45, 643 (1979)Int. J. RemoteSensing 1, 69(1980);C. J. Tuck-er, B. N. Holben, J. H. Elgin,J. E. McMurtrey,Photogramm.Eng. Remote Sensing 46, 657(1980);B. N. Holben, C. J. Tucker,C. J. Fan,ibid., p. 651.

14. C. J. Tucker,W. H. Jones W. A. Kley, G. J.Sundstrom,NASAlGoddariSpace FlightCent.Tech.Memo.80641 (1980).

crossarrn, is counterweighted, and hasprovedsturdy and stable in field studiesof corn (6).

We field-tested three prototype in-strumentsduring the 1979growingsea-son with satisfactory results. The testswere conducted on rangelands n westTexas and on alfalfa, corn, soybeans,and winter wheat at the Beltsville Agri-

cultural Research Center, Maryland.Thirty instruments were tested duringthe 1980 growing season at locationsthroughoutNorth America. Some of thecollected dataappear n Fig. 3.

In additionto the demonstrateduseswith vegetation, hand-heldradiometershave potential application in any fieldwhere radiometricmeasurements n the0.3- to 2.5-,umregion are of value. Thespectralrangeof the device described nthis reportmay be reset by changing n-terterence ilters or detectors.

COMPrON. TUCKER

WILLIAM. JONES,WILLIAM. KLEYGUNNAR. SUNDSTROMNASAlGoddard pace FlightCenter,Greenbelt,Maryland20771

References ndNotes

1. L. F. Silva, R. Hoffer, J. Cipra,Proc. SeventhInt. Symp.RemoteSensingEnviron.(1971), p.1509;R. W. Leamer,V. J. Myers, L. F. Silva,Rev. Sci. Instrum.44, 611 (1973);L. D. Miller,R. L. Pearson,C. J. Tucker,Photogramm.Eng.RemoteSensing 42, 569 (1976);E. J. Brack,R.W. Tinker,G. T. St. Amour,Can. Agric. Eng.19, 78 (1977);F. M. Zweibaum ndE. W.Chap-pelle,SPIE J. 180, 242(1979).

2. C. J. Tucker,Remote Sensing Environ. 6, 11(1977).

3. Photogramm.Eng. RemoteSensing 44,1369 ;978).

4. W. Collins, bid, p. 43.

5. M. Methy,Oecol. Plant. 12, 395 (1977) B. F.Robinson, M. E. Bauer, V. P. de Witt L. F.Vanderbilt,SPIE J. 196, 8 (1979),R. D. Jack-son, P. J. Pinter, S. B. Idso, R. J. Reginato,Appl. Opt. 18, 3730 1979);J. K. Aase and F. H.Siddoway,Agron. J. 72, 149 1980);B. N. Hol-ben and C. O. Justice,Photogramm.Eng. Re-moteSensing46, 1191 1980).

6. D. S. Kimes, B. L. Markham,C. J. Tucker, J.E. McMurtrey,NASAlGoddardSpace FlightCent.Tech.Memo., in press.

7. G. S. Birthand G. R. McVey,Agron.J. 60, 640(1968).

8. R. L. Pearson and L. D. Miller,Proc. EighthInt. Symp.RemoteSensing Environ.(1972), p.1357.

9. , C.J.Tucker,Appl.Opt. 16,416 ( 1976).10. Thedevice was soldby Exotech, Inc., Gaithers-

burg,Md.11. C. J. Tucker,unpublished ata12. B. N. Holbenand C. J. Tucker,Photogramm.

Eng. RemoteSensing, in press.13. C. J.Tucker,J. H. Elgin,J. E. McMurtrey,C. J.

Fan,Remote SensingEnviron.8, 237(1979);C.J. Tucker,J. H. Elgin, J. E. McMurtrey, hoto-gramm.Eng. Remote Sensing 45, 643 (1979)Int. J. RemoteSensing 1, 69(1980);C. J. Tuck-er, B. N. Holben, J. H. Elgin,J. E. McMurtrey,Photogramm.Eng. Remote Sensing 46, 657(1980);B. N. Holben, C. J. Tucker,C. J. Fan,ibid., p. 651.

14. C. J. Tucker,W. H. Jones W. A. Kley, G. J.Sundstrom,NASAlGoddariSpace FlightCent.Tech.Memo.80641 (1980).

15. Theextensionpole wasdesignedby P. Leone,J.Humphreys,and K. Kirks of NASA GoddardSpace FlightCenter.

16. WethankD. Friedman,L. Miller,D. Smith, L.Walter, . Knudson,V. Salomonson,T. Ashton,and R. Gilbert or th¢irassistanceand support.Supported ythe Department f Agriculture ndNASA's Officeof TechnologyUtilization.

11Jllly1980

SCIENCE, VOL. 211, 16 JANUARY 1981

15. Theextensionpole wasdesignedby P. Leone,J.Humphreys,and K. Kirks of NASA GoddardSpace FlightCenter.

16. WethankD. Friedman,L. Miller,D. Smith, L.Walter, . Knudson,V. Salomonson,T. Ashton,and R. Gilbert or th¢irassistanceand support.Supported ythe Department f Agriculture ndNASA's Officeof TechnologyUtilization.

11Jllly1980

SCIENCE, VOL. 211, 16 JANUARY 1981

Decipherment of the Earliest Tablets

Abstract.Theirstsignsof writingwerecrudelympressed n claytablets.Thesesignsare oundto represent ndstand or claytokensused or recording rior owriting.Therecentdecoding f a seriesof tokensmakes t possible o identify hesignsas unitsofgrainmetrology,andmeasure, nimalnumeration,ndother co-nomicunits.

Decipherment of the Earliest Tablets

Abstract.Theirstsignsof writingwerecrudelympressed n claytablets.Thesesignsare oundto represent ndstand or claytokensused or recording rior owriting.Therecentdecoding f a seriesof tokensmakes t possible o identify hesignsas unitsofgrainmetrology,andmeasure, nimalnumeration,ndother co-nomicunits.

Therecentidentification f a system ofclay tokens used for recording/countingas a progenitorof writing nvites the re-evaluation of the earliest written docu-ments, known as tablets (1, 2). This re-portdeals with the first series of tabletswhich are characterizedby crudely im-pressed signs (Fig. 1). These tablets areusually referred to as "numerical tab-lets," suggesting hatthey yield only nu-merical notations. They will be calledhere"impressed ablets," and, in ightofnew evidence drawnfromthe token sys-tem, I will propose a new deciphermentof the earliest stages of writing.

The tablets and the signs. About 200impressed tablets are reported in theliterature, coming from excavations inIran (Susa, Chogha Mish, Godin Tepe,Tepe Sialk, and Tall-i Ghazir), in Iraq(Uruk and Khafaje), and in Syria (Ha-buba Kabira and Jebel Aruda). Theydate fromabout 3150 to 2900B.C.

Eighteendifferentsigns can be identi-fied on the impressed tablets which, asillustrated n Fig. 2, I interpretas repre-sentationsof tokens. I view, in particu-lar, the deep circularmarkings(Fig. 2,columns 1 and 2) as standing or spheresand the shallow circularmarkings Fig.

2, column 8) as standing for disks. Iequate he shortwedges (Fig. 2, columns9 and 10)with cones andthe longwedges(Fig. 2, column 16) with cylinders.

The recentdecoding of the meaningofthesetokens(2)allows me to proposethefollowingdecipherment or the tablet inFig. 1: two ''large" measuresand three''small"measuresof grain equivalent oabout 90 liters of grain).An explanationfollows.

Themeaningof the wedges, deep cir-

Therecentidentification f a system ofclay tokens used for recording/countingas a progenitorof writing nvites the re-evaluation of the earliest written docu-ments, known as tablets (1, 2). This re-portdeals with the first series of tabletswhich are characterizedby crudely im-pressed signs (Fig. 1). These tablets areusually referred to as "numerical tab-lets," suggesting hatthey yield only nu-merical notations. They will be calledhere"impressed ablets," and, in ightofnew evidence drawnfromthe token sys-tem, I will propose a new deciphermentof the earliest stages of writing.

The tablets and the signs. About 200impressed tablets are reported in theliterature, coming from excavations inIran (Susa, Chogha Mish, Godin Tepe,Tepe Sialk, and Tall-i Ghazir), in Iraq(Uruk and Khafaje), and in Syria (Ha-buba Kabira and Jebel Aruda). Theydate fromabout 3150 to 2900B.C.

Eighteendifferentsigns can be identi-fied on the impressed tablets which, asillustrated n Fig. 2, I interpretas repre-sentationsof tokens. I view, in particu-lar, the deep circularmarkings(Fig. 2,columns 1 and 2) as standing or spheresand the shallow circularmarkings Fig.

2, column 8) as standing for disks. Iequate he shortwedges (Fig. 2, columns9 and 10)with cones andthe longwedges(Fig. 2, column 16) with cylinders.

The recentdecoding of the meaningofthesetokens(2)allows me to proposethefollowingdecipherment or the tablet inFig. 1: two ''large" measuresand three''small"measuresof grain equivalent oabout 90 liters of grain).An explanationfollows.

Themeaningof the wedges, deep cir-

cles,and riangles. oranFriberg ecent-

ly documentedthe fact that the Sumeri-ans andthe Elamitesused the same sys-tem to record grain metrology (3, pp.10and 20): (i) the most basic unit(about6 litersof grain),called theban n Sumer,was representedby a wedge; (ii) a un'itsix times larger, the bariga,was repre-sented by a circle; (iii) a fractionof thebanwas shown as a triangle. I postulatethat the shapes of the signsused forgrainmetrologyderive from the tokens in theshape of cones, spheres, and triangles.As a consequence, Tconsider th smallcone to representthe most basic unit of

grain. Its shape may be viewed as de-rivingfromthe representationof a deepbowl. The sphere will stand, according-ly, for the second most basic unit ofgrain, of larger size. Its shape may besuggestiveof a bag of grain. Largeconesand spheres represent still larger unitsof grain metrology, whereas the plaintrianglestands for a fractionof the basicunit.

The impressionof these tokens on thetablets had the same meaningas the to-kensthemselves, and, as a consequence,the two small circular impressions andthe three wedges on the tablet in Fig. 1

may be read "two 'large' and three'small' measures of grain." Land mea-sures in Sumerwere calculated n termsof the seed ratio necessary for sowing(4). It is, therefore, not surprising o findin Friberg that the cones and sphereswere also used as units forlandmeasure-ments (3, p. 46). In this case the multi-ples of the standardSumerianunits, theiku (3258 m2) and the bur (63504 m2),were expressed by punchedcones (Fig.2, column 11) and spheres (Fig. 2, col-umn 4) and a fraction by an incisedsphere(Fig. 2, column 3).

When, how, and why certain signsspecificallyused for grainandfield mea-surementscame to be used for abstractnumbers are questions of fundamentalimportance or the developmentof math-ematics, but they are beyond the scopeof this report. In the texts of the UrukIVa period of 3100 B.C., pictographs nthe form of an ear of barley and of aschematizedfield are added next to theimpressedsigns in accountsdealingwithbarleyandland to specify thatthe quan-titiesreferred o these commodities, hussuggesting hat the processof acquisition

cles,and riangles. oranFriberg ecent-

ly documentedthe fact that the Sumeri-ans andthe Elamitesused the same sys-tem to record grain metrology (3, pp.10and 20): (i) the most basic unit(about6 litersof grain),called theban n Sumer,was representedby a wedge; (ii) a un'itsix times larger, the bariga,was repre-sented by a circle; (iii) a fractionof thebanwas shown as a triangle. I postulatethat the shapes of the signsused forgrainmetrologyderive from the tokens in theshape of cones, spheres, and triangles.As a consequence, Tconsider th smallcone to representthe most basic unit of

grain. Its shape may be viewed as de-rivingfromthe representationof a deepbowl. The sphere will stand, according-ly, for the second most basic unit ofgrain, of larger size. Its shape may besuggestiveof a bag of grain. Largeconesand spheres represent still larger unitsof grain metrology, whereas the plaintrianglestands for a fractionof the basicunit.

The impressionof these tokens on thetablets had the same meaningas the to-kensthemselves, and, as a consequence,the two small circular impressions andthe three wedges on the tablet in Fig. 1

may be read "two 'large' and three'small' measures of grain." Land mea-sures in Sumerwere calculated n termsof the seed ratio necessary for sowing(4). It is, therefore, not surprising o findin Friberg that the cones and sphereswere also used as units forlandmeasure-ments (3, p. 46). In this case the multi-ples of the standardSumerianunits, theiku (3258 m2) and the bur (63504 m2),were expressed by punchedcones (Fig.2, column 11) and spheres (Fig. 2, col-umn 4) and a fraction by an incisedsphere(Fig. 2, column 3).

When, how, and why certain signsspecificallyused for grainandfield mea-surementscame to be used for abstractnumbers are questions of fundamentalimportance or the developmentof math-ematics, but they are beyond the scopeof this report. In the texts of the UrukIVa period of 3100 B.C., pictographs nthe form of an ear of barley and of aschematizedfield are added next to theimpressedsigns in accountsdealingwithbarleyandland to specify thatthe quan-titiesreferred o these commodities, hussuggesting hat the processof acquisition

Fig. 1. Impressed ablet(Gd73.392) romGo-din Tepe, Iran. [CourtesyT. CuylerYoung,Jr., Royal OntarioMuseum,Toronto,Cana-da]

Fig. 1. Impressed ablet(Gd73.392) romGo-din Tepe, Iran. [CourtesyT. CuylerYoung,Jr., Royal OntarioMuseum,Toronto,Cana-da]

003s807S/81/011s0283$00.S0/0 Copyright 42)1981 AAAS03s807S/81/011s0283$00.S0/0 Copyright 42)1981 AAAS

28383

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1. Spheres

Impressed 0 t e e e f

-

Proposed Unit of grain Unit of grain Unit of Isnd Unit of land ? ? ?

translation nieasurel measure nceasure measure

Pictograph

lilrd mill. r r + e

ATU 897 907 898 781

Transiation. 10 3600 10 2heep

Falkenstein

1 2 3 4 5 6 Y

11.Disks 111. Cones

Tokens U

impressed @, r U e

Proposed Unit of grain Uni1 of graln Unit of Iand Unit of iand tOOtranslation 1O animais measure measure m3asure measure animais

..

Pictograph

Illrd mil. o D D E

ATU 753 892 890 aO6 918

Transiation Siab. tOttliafter circie 1 6° 6°° Fraction

8 9 1O 11 12 1-3

V. i3iconoids Vl.Ovoids Vll: CylAnders IX. Trlangles

Tokens X Q t n n

Impressed f t | | Ft

Proposed Unit ot graln

translation ? ? 1 animal messurement ?

Pictograph

Illrd mill. X 9 t3

ATU 428 733 9°°

Translationafter Good/sw eet Oli 6°

Faikenstein M

t i _

of abstractnumberswas thenalreadyun-der way.

Themeaningof the long wedges, shal-low circles, and double wedges. In thetoken system, a series of disks bearingdistinctivepatternscan be matchedwithpictographs translated as sheep, ewe,

lamb, wool, cloth, and garment. Thisdemonstrates that concepts of relatedmeaningwere representedby variationsof markingsplaced on a type of token.One may, therefore, expect that theplain disk was a common unit in theseries, which acted as a root. Falken-

steiIl's translationof "slab, block, totalcircle" (5) (Fig. 2, column 8) becomessuspect, and the correct meaningof theplaindisk may be provided by Friberg'sstudy.According o his results, a specialnumeration ystem was used in Elamtokeep track of animals. The signs usedwere alternativelya wedge standing orone animal Fig. 2, column16), a circular

shape for ten (Fig. 2, column 8), and adouble wedge, apex to apex, for 100tfig. 2, column 13) (3, p. 21). I interpretthewedge used in the animalnumerationsystem as being the long wedge, whichrepresented the cylinder of the tokensystem I also postulate thatthe circularmarkingused to represent en animals sthe shallowcircularmarkingwhichstoodfor a disk (Fig. 2, column 8). It is impor-tant to note here that the double conesplacedapexto apexwhich appearononetabletfromGodinTepe (6) andstand for100animals, representan importantde-parture or writing. The sign is not

thestraightforward epresentation of a to-ken. The symbolis doubledandexploitsfor morphology he new possibility pro-videdb-y wo-dimensionaldesign.

Theremainingsigns. The deep circu-lar markings standing for the spheresandthe shortwedges standing or conesare by farthe most-frequently sed signs(Fig. 1). They occur, respectively, on88 and 69 tablets. The reading of thesetwo SigIlSalone provided, therefore, atranslation or 85 percent of the tabletsThe long wedges standingfor cylindersaxld the shallow circles standing for

disks are next in frequencyand appearon 30 and 15 tablets, respectively. Theremaining signs are rare. An attempthas been made in Fig. 2 to correlatethem to known Sumerian pictographssuggesting such translations as "oil,""sweet," and i'fat tail sheep."

The decipherment of the impressedtablets has three major consequellces.First, it makes available a body of pre-viously enigmaticdata and reveals thatthe impressed tablets bear accounts offoodstuffsconsistingmainlyof grainandsmall stock. Second, it provides an in-sight into the first use of writing. The

smallamountsof food dealtwithsuggestthat the impressed tablets, like the laterpictographic tablets, were receipts oftaxes paid by individuals.Third,they il-lustrate he last stageof qualitycountingwhich xnathematicians ave conjecturedpreceded the acquisition of abstractnumbers.

DEN7ISECHMANI)T-BESSERATCenterAorMiddleEasternStudies,Universityof Texas,Austin 78712

SCIENCE,OL. 11

14 15 ?l7

Fig. 2. Chart howing he relationship etweentokens, impressed igns, and.pictographicigns

16see (S) for an explanationof ATU numbers].

284

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tance in the years to come (1). We mea-suredthese halocarbonsand other tracegases, usingestablishedelectron-capturegas-chromatographyechniques (3).

The internalconsistency in the abso-lute concentrations reported for each

17 - \ _F-1 1

\SP

15 - \ _

tance in the years to come (1). We mea-suredthese halocarbonsand other tracegases, usingestablishedelectron-capturegas-chromatographyechniques (3).

The internalconsistency in the abso-lute concentrations reported for each

17 - \ _F-1 1

\SP

15 - \ _

l l

5

l l

5

(Ausgrabungender Deutschen Porschungge-meinschaft n Uruk-Warka , No. 111, Berlin,1936),p. 260.

6. Gd73.291,unpublished.7. Thisresearchwas supported y a grant rom he

National Endowment for the Humanities. IthankP. Amiet at the Musee du Louvre,Paris,and T. CuylerYoung, Jr., at the Royal OntarioMuseum,Toronto, or allowingme to study thetablets from Susa and GodinTepe; M. Irwin,who edited the report;and E. Simmons,whodrew Fig. 2.

27 June1980,revised 7 November 1980

(Ausgrabungender Deutschen Porschungge-meinschaft n Uruk-Warka , No. 111, Berlin,1936),p. 260.

6. Gd73.291,unpublished.7. Thisresearchwas supported y a grant rom he

National Endowment for the Humanities. IthankP. Amiet at the Musee du Louvre,Paris,and T. CuylerYoung, Jr., at the Royal OntarioMuseum,Toronto, or allowingme to study thetablets from Susa and GodinTepe; M. Irwin,who edited the report;and E. Simmons,whodrew Fig. 2.

27 June1980,revised 7 November 1980

season has been maintaihedsince 1976by calibrationstandards.The values inTable 1 are averages over mAnymea-surements and represent our best esti-mates of concentrations n the antarctictroposphereduringJanuary f eachyear.Whenever possible, the concentrationsobserved in Antarctica were comparedwith measurementsmade by P. Fraser,

CommonwealthScientificand IndustrialResearchOrganization,CapeGrim,Tas-mania ( 43°S), and measurementsmade elsewhere in the SouthernHemi-sphere. The antarctic measurementshave always been consistent with theseadditionalmeasurements 2).

On the basis of the datagiven inTable1,we have estimated the increases in theconcentrations of CC13F,CC12F2,CC14,CH3CC13,nd N20 and considered thechanges in the north/south (N/S) ratio.The results of these calculations aresummarized n Table 2. We found thatthe time series data are appropriatelyrepresentedby the (exponentialgrowth)expression

1 dc e

c dt

where c is the concentrationand ,8 is re-gardedas a constant, thus reflecting heaverage rates of atnlospheric increaseduring he yearswhen observationsweremade. In Table2, we estimated 8 by us-ing nonparametric statistical methodsbased on the Theil statistic (4); the esti-mate of the (average) value of ,8 is de-noted ,8. The ,8obtained by this method

is less sensitive to gross errorsthan theusual classical least-squares estimates.The numbers we obtained for,8 weremultiplied by 100 percent to convertthem to percentage increases per year.Similarly, we estimated a distribution-free approximate90 percent confidenceintervalfor,S, using the Theil test (4).The results arereported ti Table2 as pL

(lower limit) and ,Bu upper limit). Theconcentrations of CC13F,CC12F2,andCH3CC13ncreased at about 10,9, and 13percentper year,respectively, on the av-erage.

The data in Table 1, for 6 years, also

indicatethat the rate of atmosphericac-cumulation of CC13Fand CC12F2de-noted ,x3)may be slowing down. Such anobservation would be consistent with,indeedrequiredby, the leveling offin theglobalemissions since about 1975 (5). Aleveling off in the emissions of these

season has been maintaihedsince 1976by calibrationstandards.The values inTable 1 are averages over mAnymea-surements and represent our best esti-mates of concentrations n the antarctictroposphereduringJanuary f eachyear.Whenever possible, the concentrationsobserved in Antarctica were comparedwith measurementsmade by P. Fraser,

CommonwealthScientificand IndustrialResearchOrganization,CapeGrim,Tas-mania ( 43°S), and measurementsmade elsewhere in the SouthernHemi-sphere. The antarctic measurementshave always been consistent with theseadditionalmeasurements 2).

On the basis of the datagiven inTable1,we have estimated the increases in theconcentrations of CC13F,CC12F2,CC14,CH3CC13,nd N20 and considered thechanges in the north/south (N/S) ratio.The results of these calculations aresummarized n Table 2. We found thatthe time series data are appropriatelyrepresentedby the (exponentialgrowth)expression

1 dc e

c dt

where c is the concentrationand ,8 is re-gardedas a constant, thus reflecting heaverage rates of atnlospheric increaseduring he yearswhen observationsweremade. In Table2, we estimated 8 by us-ing nonparametric statistical methodsbased on the Theil statistic (4); the esti-mate of the (average) value of ,8 is de-noted ,8. The ,8obtained by this method

is less sensitive to gross errorsthan theusual classical least-squares estimates.The numbers we obtained for,8 weremultiplied by 100 percent to convertthem to percentage increases per year.Similarly, we estimated a distribution-free approximate90 percent confidenceintervalfor,S, using the Theil test (4).The results arereported ti Table2 as pL

(lower limit) and ,Bu upper limit). Theconcentrations of CC13F,CC12F2,andCH3CC13ncreased at about 10,9, and 13percentper year,respectively, on the av-erage.

The data in Table 1, for 6 years, also

indicatethat the rate of atmosphericac-cumulation of CC13Fand CC12F2de-noted ,x3)may be slowing down. Such anobservation would be consistent with,indeedrequiredby, the leveling offin theglobalemissions since about 1975 (5). Aleveling off in the emissions of these

Fig. 1. Rates of growth of CCl3F (F-l l ) andCCl2F2(F-12) during overlapping 3-year peri-ods from 197S to 1980.

Fig. 1. Rates of growth of CCl3F (F-l l ) andCCl2F2(F-12) during overlapping 3-year peri-ods from 197S to 1980.

References nd Notes

1. D. Schmandt-Besserat, ci. Am. 238, 50 (June1978). l>,

2. _ , Technol.Culture21 (III), 357 (1980).3. J. Friberg,TheThirdMillennium ootsof Baby-

l(nianSMathematics:Method or the Decipher-ment, throughMathematicaland MetrologicalAnalysis,of Proto-Sumerian ndProto-ElamiteSemi-Pictographic nscriptions ChalmersUrxi-versity of Technology and th University ofC;oteborg,Goteborg,Sweden, 1978-79).

4. W. W. Hallo,Bibl. Orient. 33, 38 (1976).5. A. Palkenstein, Archaische Texte aus Uruk

References nd Notes

1. D. Schmandt-Besserat, ci. Am. 238, 50 (June1978). l>,

2. _ , Technol.Culture21 (III), 357 (1980).3. J. Friberg,TheThirdMillennium ootsof Baby-

l(nianSMathematics:Method or the Decipher-ment, throughMathematicaland MetrologicalAnalysis,of Proto-Sumerian ndProto-ElamiteSemi-Pictographic nscriptions ChalmersUrxi-versity of Technology and th University ofC;oteborg,Goteborg,Sweden, 1978-79).

4. W. W. Hallo,Bibl. Orient. 33, 38 (1976).5. A. Palkenstein, Archaische Texte aus Uruk

January1980marked he sixth year ofour trace gas measurementsprogramatthe South Pole (SP). We reporthere thedata obtained over these 5 years, esti-matethe averageannual ncreases in theconcentrationsof CC13F F-11), CCl2Fa(F-:l2),CC14,CH3CC13,ndN20, andre-port the consistency of our measure-me]ntsof CC13F,CCl2Fa,and CH3CC13withthe emissions estimates. In January

1980 we also measuredCHC1F2F-22),C2(n13F3F-113), CH3C1,SF6, CH4,C0,C2lI2(acetylene), C2H4 ethylene), andC2lI6(ethane). These data are also in-cluded.

We have maintainedthe objective ofquantifying he global trend toward in-creasing atmospheric concentrationsoflong-livedgases such as CC13F,CC12F2,andlCH3CC13, hicharereleasedas a re-sultof humanactivities, primarily t lati-tudes above 30°N, and which may ad-versely affect the future globalenviron-ment (1). In order that the picture bemore complete, the trends observed in

the antarcticatmosphere are contrastedto those observed at (remote) PacificNorthwest (PNW) ( 45°N) sites duringthe sameperiod.

The measurements of- N20, CC13F,CC12F2, C1L4,nd CH3CC13 ade everyJanruaryrom 1975 to 1980are reportedin 1[ ble 1 (2). Concentrationsor a varie-ty of trace gases, not previously mea-sured in Antarctica, are also shown inTable 1, includingCHC1F2F-22),whichis likely to gain environmental mpor-

SCl:ENCE,VOL. 211, 16 JANUARY 1981

January1980marked he sixth year ofour trace gas measurementsprogramatthe South Pole (SP). We reporthere thedata obtained over these 5 years, esti-matethe averageannual ncreases in theconcentrationsof CC13F F-11), CCl2Fa(F-:l2),CC14,CH3CC13,ndN20, andre-port the consistency of our measure-me]ntsof CC13F,CCl2Fa,and CH3CC13withthe emissions estimates. In January

1980 we also measuredCHC1F2F-22),C2(n13F3F-113), CH3C1,SF6, CH4,C0,C2lI2(acetylene), C2H4 ethylene), andC2lI6(ethane). These data are also in-cluded.

We have maintainedthe objective ofquantifying he global trend toward in-creasing atmospheric concentrationsoflong-livedgases such as CC13F,CC12F2,andlCH3CC13, hicharereleasedas a re-sultof humanactivities, primarily t lati-tudes above 30°N, and which may ad-versely affect the future globalenviron-ment (1). In order that the picture bemore complete, the trends observed in

the antarcticatmosphere are contrastedto those observed at (remote) PacificNorthwest (PNW) ( 45°N) sites duringthe sameperiod.

The measurements of- N20, CC13F,CC12F2, C1L4,nd CH3CC13 ade everyJanruaryrom 1975 to 1980are reportedin 1[ ble 1 (2). Concentrationsor a varie-ty of trace gases, not previously mea-sured in Antarctica, are also shown inTable 1, includingCHC1F2F-22),whichis likely to gain environmental mpor-

SCl:ENCE,VOL. 211, 16 JANUARY 1981

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003s8075l81/011s0285$00.50/0 CopyrightK)1981AAAS03s8075l81/011s0285$00.50/0 CopyrightK)1981AAAS 28585

Atmospheric Trace Gases in Antarctica

AWbstract.racegases havebeenmeasured,byelectrota-captureas chromatogra-phyand gas chromatography-mass pectrometry echniques,at the SouthPole (SP)inAntarcticaand in the U.S. Pacific Northwest(PNW) ( 45°N)duringJanuRry feach yearfrom 1975 to 1980. Thesemeasurements how that the concentrationsofCCI3F,CCI2F2, nd CH3CCI3ave increasedexponentially t 3ubstRntial ates. Theconcentrationof CCI3F ncreasedat 12percent per year at the SP and at 8 percentper year in the PNW; CCI2F2ncreased at about 9 percent per yeRr at both loca-tions, and CH3CCI3ncreased at 17percent per year at the SP and 11.6 percentperyear at the PNW site. There s some evidence that CCI4 3 percent per year) andN2O (0.1 to 0.5 percent per year) may also have increased. Concentrationsof tineothertracegases of importance natmosphericchemistryarealso beingmeasuredatthese twolocations. Resultsof themeasurementsof CHCIF2F-22), C2CI3F3F-113),SFs, C2-hydrocarbons, nd CH3CI re reportedhere.

Atmospheric Trace Gases in Antarctica

AWbstract.racegases havebeenmeasured,byelectrota-captureas chromatogra-phyand gas chromatography-mass pectrometry echniques,at the SouthPole (SP)inAntarcticaand in the U.S. Pacific Northwest(PNW) ( 45°N)duringJanuRry feach yearfrom 1975 to 1980. Thesemeasurements how that the concentrationsofCCI3F,CCI2F2, nd CH3CCI3ave increasedexponentially t 3ubstRntial ates. Theconcentrationof CCI3F ncreasedat 12percent per year at the SP and at 8 percentper year in the PNW; CCI2F2ncreased at about 9 percent per yeRr at both loca-tions, and CH3CCI3ncreased at 17percent per year at the SP and 11.6 percentperyear at the PNW site. There s some evidence that CCI4 3 percent per year) andN2O (0.1 to 0.5 percent per year) may also have increased. Concentrationsof tineothertracegases of importance natmosphericchemistryarealso beingmeasuredatthese twolocations. Resultsof themeasurementsof CHCIF2F-22), C2CI3F3F-113),SFs, C2-hydrocarbons, nd CH3CI re reportedhere.