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TRANSCRIPT
December 10, 2017
Presentation to National Conference of State Legislatures
Global Energy Trends: Selected Issues
Max Dupuy Senior Associate
The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
[email protected] raponline.org
2
3
4
Total Energy Consumption, by Region
4000
2000
0
6000
8000
10000
12000
140001
96
5
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
Other
Other Asia-Pacific
Africa
India
China
US
EU
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
Million toe
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 5
Total Electricity Consumption
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
China
US
EU
India
1985 1990Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
TWh
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Global Energy Consumption, byfuel
2016 Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 6
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
World Coal Consumption
Source: US EIA
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 7
8
9Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
10Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
China Policy Objective #1: Improve Air Quality
Source: South China Morning Post
11Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
China Policy Objective #2: Limit CarbonEmissions
Source: Greenpeace
12Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
China Policy Objective #3:Improve Energy Efficiency
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
13Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Energy intensity
(Downward trend represents improvement in overall energy efficiency)
China Policy Objective #4: Increase Non-Fossil Energy Resources and Phase OutCoal
Newly Installed Wind Generation Capacity, 2016
14Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
Source: Global Wind Energy Council
Energy Intensity
Source: China Energy Research Institute NDRC and China National Renewable Energy Center, China Renewable Energy Outlook, 2017
15Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
China Wind Curtailment
Sources: China National Energy Administration, US DOE, ERCOT, and RAP
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• Electricity markets• Renewable energy integration• Retirement of excess coal generation capacity• Coal consumption cap• Utility revenue regulation• Demand-side management• Emissions trading
17Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
China Power Sector Reform
India: Air Quality An Increasingly Urgent Issue
Source: State of Global Air
18Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
European Union: “Efficiency First”• “Clean Energy for All
Europeans” package of legislation
• Prioritizes investments in customer-side efficiency resources
• A new strengthened goal for energy efficiency nearing finalization
19Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
About RAPThe Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® is an independent, non-partisan, non-governmental organization dedicated to accelerating the transition to a clean, reliable, and efficient energy future.
Learn more about our work at raponline.org
Max Dupuy Senior AssociateThe Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
+1 510 778 [email protected] raponline.org
Oakland, California United States
Supplemental Slides
21Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
China Energy Consumption by FuelType
Coal NaturalGas
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
22Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2016
Mtce
Oil Non-fossil
Source: China Energy Research Institute NDRC and China National Renewable Energy Center, China Renewable Energy Outlook, 2017
China Energy Consumption by FuelType
20%
30%
70%
60%
50%
40%
80%
10%
0%
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Oil
Coal
Non-fossils*
Gas
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)® 23
China 2020 RE Capacity Targets and Scenarios
Source: China Energy Research Institute NDRC and China National Renewable Energy Center, China Renewable Energy Outlook, 2017
24Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)®
2020 Targets And ScenarioAchievements
13th FYP Stated Policies Below 2 °C
Total 676 GW 814 GW 1,119 GW
Hydropower 340GW 341GW 341GW
Wind 210GW 259GW 549GW
Solar 110GW 188GW 200GW
Biomass 15GW 26GW 29GW
Other RE 0.55GW 0.58GW 0.58GW